Opinion polling for the 2023 Australian Indigenous Voice referendum

Last updated

Opinion polling on whether to change the Australian Constitution to establish an Indigenous Voice has been conducted since 2017, when Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander leaders petitioned for such an amendment as part of the Uluru Statement from the Heart . [1] The number of these polls conducted grew substantially following Labor's victory in the 2022 federal election; the party had committed to holding the referendum required for this constitutional change in its first term of government. [2]

Contents

At least ten firms polled Australians on the proposed amendment, greater than the number who have polled party support for any previous Australian election. [2] Some firms were commissioned by media organisations, think tanks, advocacy groups or university foundations. Other firms self-initiated their polls for market research or strategic communications purposes. [2] Considering methodologies, polls were almost exclusively conducted online, with only one firm using SMS. Pollsters differed on whether to give a forced-choice question, as is done in actual Australian referendums, or allow respondents to express indecision or lack of knowledge. Some pollsters also used Likert-style questions to allow respondents to express how strong their opinion is. [2]

The Australian Constitution requires a proposed amendment to attain a double majority in the referendum – not only a majority of votes nationwide, but also a majority in at least four of the six states. Because of this requirement, the level of support in each state was of special interest. [2] One way pollsters investigated state-level support was to break down results from national polls. However, these polls sometimes did not survey enough people from each state to give reliable results about state-level support, especially for smaller states like Tasmania and South Australia. Another way pollsters investigated was by specifically surveying people from a particular state. [2]

Pollsters also often broke down their results by age, gender, and party affiliation. The last was of particular interest because bipartisan support is often considered necessary for an Australian referendum to pass, though it is not a formal requirement. [2]

The extent of support for the Voice among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians was a key point of discussion. All publicly available polling indicated absolute majorities among this group favouring the Voice. Important caveats include the small sample size associated with certain polls, the length of time elapsed since the polls were conducted, and the lack of publicly available results and methodologies for certain polls. [3]

Poll aggregations

External poll aggregations
Searchtool.svg Nick Evershed and Josh Nicholas for The Guardian
Searchtool.svg Kevin Bonham, electoral analyst [3]
Searchtool.svg Simon Jackman, University of Sydney professor [3]
Graphical summary – binary choice
2023 Australian Indigenous Voice referendum opinion polling - forced-choice only.svg

National poll results

Polls on establishing an Indigenous Voice
Date(s)FirmSampleWith undecidedsBinary [lower-alpha 1] Ref.
YesNoDKYesNo
25 September–14 October 2023Australian Electoral Commission15,895,231———39.9%60.1% [4]
14 October 2023Voting day for all on-the-day voting in Australia. [5]
11–14 October 2023 Essential 112538%53%10%42%58% [lower-alpha 2] [6]
4–12 October 2023 Newspoll 263837%57%6%40%60% [lower-alpha 3] [7]
2–12 October 2023 Roy Morgan 141944%51%5%46%54% [lower-alpha 4] [lower-alpha 5] [9]
6–10 October 2023 YouGov 151938%56%6%40%60% [10]
6–9 October 2023JWS Research92239%52%9%43%57% [lower-alpha 6] [11]
1–9 October 2023DemosAU225134%54%12%39%61% [lower-alpha 2] [12]
October 2023Pollinate—35%47%18%43%57% [13]
3–6 October 2023Newspoll122534%58%8%37%63% [14]
22 September–4 October 2023Resolve Strategic472838%49%13%44%56% [15]
2–3 October 2023Early in-person voting begins for electors who cannot vote on the day. [16]
18 September–2 October 2023Focaldata4608———39%61% [17]
27 September–1 October 2023Essential112543%49%8%47%53% [18]
25 September–1 October 2023Roy Morgan90937%46%17%44%56% [19]
25–29 September 2023YouGov156338%53%9%42%58% [20]
25 September 2023Voting begins in certain remote areas. [16]
22–24 September 2023Freshwater Strategy100333%50%17%40%60% [21]
18–24 September 2023Roy Morgan151139%44%17%47%53% [22]
18–22 September 2023Newspoll123936%56%8%39%61% [23] [24]
15–22 September 2023GIC128338%45%17%46%54% [25]
13–21 September 2023RedBridge1500———38%62% [26] [27]
September 2023Pollinate—35%44%21%44%56% [28]
1–19 September 2023DemosAU250438%54%8%41%59% [29]
13–16 September 2023Essential113541%51%9%45%55% [30]
6–9 September 2023Resolve Strategic160435%49%16%43%57% [31]
2–5 September 2023Freshwater Strategy176135%50%15%41%59% [32]
30 August–4 September 2023RedBridge1001———39%61% [32] [33]
30 August–3 September 2023Essential115142%48%10%47%53% [34]
28 August–1 September 2023Newspoll120038%53%9%42%58% [35]
7–31 August 2023DemosAU235939%42%19%48%52% [lower-alpha 2] [12]
30 August 2023PM Anthony Albanese announces 14 October as referendum date. [36]
16–21 August 2023SEC Newgate1200———46%54% [37]
August 2023Pollinate100031%39%30%44%56% [38]
9–13 August 2023Resolve Strategic160337%45%18%46%54% [39]
2–5 August 2023Essential115043%47%10%48%52% [40]
July 2023Scanlon Institute745449%30%20%62%38% [41]
11–28 July 2023DemosAU235939%42%20%48%52% [lower-alpha 2] [12]
21–27 July 2023RedBridge1022———44%56% [42]
12–15 July 2023Resolve Strategic161036%42%22%48%52% [43]
12–15 July 2023Newspoll157041%48%11%46%54% [44]
July 2023 [lower-alpha 7] Australian Labor Party1430048%47%5%51%49% [45]
5–9 July 2023Essential112547%43%10%52%48% [46]
4–7 July 2023Australia Institute100452%33%15%61%39% [47]
June 2023DemosAU—44%39%18%53%47% [lower-alpha 2] [12]
23–28 June 2023SEC Newgate220743%34%23%56%44% [48]
21–25 June 2023 [lower-alpha 8] Essential57446%42%12%52%48% [49]
574———56%44%
16–24 June 2023Newspoll230343%47%10%48%52% [50]
19 June 2023The Constitutional Amendment bill passes through the Senate. [51]
7–11 June 2023Essential1123———60%40% [52] [53]
5–11 June 2023 [lower-alpha 9] Resolve Strategic160642%40%18%49%51% [54]
2–6 June 2023JWS Research112246%43%11%51%49% [55]
31 May–3 June 2023Newspoll154946%43%11%52%48% [56]
May 2023DemosAU—43%35%22%55%45% [lower-alpha 2] [12]
26–29 May 2023Roy Morgan183346%36%18%56%44% [lower-alpha 10] [57]
26 May 2023 [lower-alpha 11] Finder105048%39%13%55%45% [58]
15–17 May 2023Freshwater Strategy100548%38%14%55%45% [59]
10–14 May 2023Essential1080———59%41% [60] [61]
10–13 May 2023Resolve Strategic161044%39%18%53%47% [62]
4–8 May 2023Ipsos946———60%40% [lower-alpha 12] [63]
April 2023DemosAU—58%29%13%66%34% [lower-alpha 2] [12]
14–18 April 2023Roy Morgan118146%39%15%54%46% [lower-alpha 10] [64]
13–18 April 2023SEC Newgate120052%27%21%66%34% [65] [66]
12–16 April 2023Essential1136———60%40% [67]
12–16 April 2023Resolve Strategic160946%31%22%58%42% [68]
9–12 April 2023Freshwater Strategy100242%34%24%56%44% [69] [70]
5 April 2023The federal Liberal Party announces its opposition. [71]
29 March–1 April 2023Newspoll150053%39%8%58%42% [72]
1–21 March 2023YouGov1506051%34%15%60%40% [73]
15–19 March 2023Essential1124———59%41% [74] [75]
12–16 March 2023Resolve Strategic160046%32%22%57%43% [76]
1–4 March 2023Newspoll153053%38%9%58%42% [77]
24–27 February 2023JWS Research94051%36%13%59%41% [lower-alpha 13] [78]
15–19 February 2023Resolve Strategic160446%32%21%58%42% [79] [80]
1–6 February 2023SEC Newgate147853%22%25%71%29% [81] [82]
1–5 February 2023Essential1000———65%35% [83]
1–4 February 2023Newspoll151256%37%7%60%40% [84] [85]
December 2022–January 2023 [lower-alpha 14] Resolve Strategic321747%30%23%60%40% [86]
16–18 December 2022Freshwater Strategy120950%26%23%65%35% [87]
9–12 December 2022Roy Morgan149953%30%17%64%36% [lower-alpha 10] [88]
7–11 December 2022Essential1075———63%37% [89]
28 November–2 December 2022Institute for Public Affairs100038%34%28%53%47% [lower-alpha 15] [lower-alpha 16] [90]
28 November 2022The federal National Party announces its opposition. [91]
5–10 October 2022SEC Newgate120755%19%25%74%26% [2]
7 October 2022Compass Polling1001———60%40% [2]
August–September 2022 [lower-alpha 17] Resolve Strategic361853%29%19%64%36% [92]
3 September 2022Compass Polling1006———65%35% [2]
12–15 August 2022JWS Research100043%24%34%65%35% [lower-alpha 18] [93]
11–15 August 2022SEC Newgate180457%19%24%75%25% [2]
3–7 August 2022Essential1075———65%35% [94]
30 July 2022Albanese reveals draft amendment wording. [95]
11–24 July 2022Scanlon Institute575759%18%20%77%23% [2]
13–15 July 2022Australia Institute100165%14%21%82%18% [96]
14–17 June 2022Australia Institute100158%16%26%78%22% [96]
25–30 May 2022Essential108953%17%29%76%24% [97] [2]
23–27 May 2022SEC Newgate140359%16%25%79%21% [2]
21 May 2022Labor wins the 2022 federal election, pledging a first-term referendum. [98]
August 2021CT Group—57%16%28%78%22% [99]
6 July 2021Essential109966%19%15%78%22% [lower-alpha 15] [100]
9–18 February 2021Omnipoll145653%18%29%75%25% [lower-alpha 19] [101] [102]
June 2020CT Group200056%17%27%77%23% [103] [1]
February 2020CT Group200049%20%31%71%29% [104]
19–23 June 2019Essential107966%21%13%76%24% [lower-alpha 15] [105]
2–6 May 2019Essential107943%———— [lower-alpha 15] [106]
22–25 February 2018Essential102868%21%11%76%24% [lower-alpha 15] [107]
15–18 February 2018Newspoll163257%32%11%64%36% [lower-alpha 15] [1]
5–7 December 2017Australia Institute141746%29%24%61%39% [1]
3–6 November 2017Essential102545%16%39%74%26% [lower-alpha 20] [108] [1]
3–10 August 2017Omnipoll152661%30%9%67%33% [1]
1–5 June 2017Essential101344%14%42%76%24% [lower-alpha 21] [109] [1]
26 May 2017In the Uluru Statement, Indigenous leaders call for a constitutional Voice. [110]
November 2016–May 2017Cox Inall Ridgeway5000———68%32% [111]
Notes
  1. ↑ Where possible, binary results come directly from pollsters' forced-choice questions or their own calculations. When such results are not available, a simulated result is produced simply by removing undecided voters from consideration and recalculating percentages. Simulated results are displayed in italics.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Unpublished until post-referendum
  3. ↑ Simulating a two-answer result from the 37–57–6 figure yields 39–61. The 40–60 figure is from The Australian's report on the poll.
  4. ↑ Also reported without leaners: 40% yes, 46% no, 14% undecided.
  5. ↑ Morgan released early results from this poll on 8 October, showing 41% yes, 45% no and 14% undecided when first prompted and 45% yes, 50% no and 5% undecided when undecideds were prompted again, which ended up as 47% yes to 53% no on a binary basis. [8]
  6. ↑ Also reported without leaners: 36% yes, 48% no, 16% undecided.
  7. ↑ Private poll, reported to have been conducted over two weeks in July.
  8. ↑ During 21―25 June, Essential used A/B testing to trial a change to its methodology: some respondents were given a binary question, others were also permitted an "unsure" option.
  9. ↑ Precise dates within this week were not reported.
  10. 1 2 3 Poll was conducted via SMS.
  11. ↑ Poll conducted in May but precise dates were unreported.
  12. ↑ Poll only surveyed non-Indigenous Australians.
  13. ↑ Also reported without leaners: 42% yes, 28% no, 30% need more information/can't say.
  14. ↑ Reported as single poll, but conducted in two stages (December (1611 respondents) and 17–22 January (1606 respondents)) to obtain a larger sample size.
  15. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Poll did not characterise Voice as constitutional change.
  16. ↑ Murray Goot has criticised the IPA poll for "tendentious" and "misleading" wording, suggesting it was skewed to encourage respondents to express opposition to the Voice. Because he still included the poll in his compilation, it has been included here for completeness. [2]
  17. ↑ Reported as single poll, but conducted in two stages (17–21 August (2011 respondents) and 13–18 September (1607 respondents)) to obtain a larger sample size.
  18. ↑ The 34% figure combines 14% undecided and 20% needing more information.
  19. ↑ Also reported figures after respondents were given further information on the Voice: 51% yes, 21% no, 28% unsure.
  20. ↑ Includes 28 per cent of neutral responses on top of 11 per cent of undecided responses.
  21. ↑ Includes 27 per cent of neutral responses on top of 14 per cent of undecided responses.

Subpopulation results

Results by state

Polls on establishing an Indigenous Voice
Date(s)FirmSample New South Wales Victoria Queensland Western Australia South Australia Tasmania Ref.
YNDKYNDKYNDKYNDKYNDKYNDK
25 September–14 October 2023Australian Electoral Commission15,895,23141.0%59.0%—45.9%54.1%—31.8%68.2%—36.7%63.3%—35.8%64.1%—41.1%58.9%— [4]
14 October 2023Voting day for all in-person voting across Australia. [5]
3–12 October 2023Newspoll386341%54%5%43%51%6%30%65%5%28%65%7%33%60%7%38%55%7% [7]
2–12 October 2023Roy Morgan141946%49%5%54%42%4%30%64%6%44%54%2%39%51%10%47%52%1% [9]
6–9 October 2023JWS Research92240%52%8%44%44%11%33%56%11%28%64%7%40%56%4%——— [11]
1–9 October 2023DemosAU2251——————30%57%12%30%57%13%—————— [112]
22 September–4 October 2023Resolve Strategic472848%52%—46%54%—36%64%—39%61%—44%56%—56%44%— [15]
27 September–1 October 2023Essential112542%50%8%43%45%12%39%56%4%————————— [18]
18–24 September 2023Roy Morgan151140%42%18%46%42%12%31%49%20%30%46%24%36%48%16%56%43%1% [22]
13–21 September 2023RedBridge150042%58%—41%59%—32%68%—————————— [27]
13–16 September 2023Essential113547%44%8%45%47%8%30%60%10%————————— [30]
September 2023Fair Australia637—————————36%59%5%—————— [113] [114]
8–9 September 2023Painted Dog1285—————————39%61%——————— [115]
6–9 September 2023Resolve Strategic160444%56%—49%51%—39%61%—39%61%—41%59%—56%44%— [31]
30 August–4 September 2023RedBridge100139%61%—45%55%—35%65%—————————— [32] [33] [116]
30 August–3 September 2023Essential115145%44%10%43%44%12%35%58%8%34%58%8%37%45%17%——— [34]
21 August 2023Insightfully1156———————————————42%53%5% [117]
16–21 August 2023SEC Newgate120048%52%—51%49%—37%63%—37%63%—46%54%———— [37] [118]
July–August 2023Resolve Strategic321346%54%—51%49%—41%59%—44%56%—46%54%—55%45%— [39]
1–7 August 2023Australia Institute605————————————43%39%18%——— [119]
2–5 August 2023Essential115041%47%12%47%46%7%40%51%9%39%48%13%45%48%7%——— [40]
21–27 July 2023RedBridge102244%56%—45%55%—37%63%—————————— [42]
18–20 July 2023Utting Research1000—————————29%58%13%—————— [120]
June–July 2023Resolve Strategic321649%51%—52%48%—42%58%—49%51%—49%51%—54%46%— [43]
5–9 July 2023Essential112545%44%11%48%39%13%42%50%8%49%47%4%49%38%13%——— [46]
29 June–2 July 2023Freshwater Strategy1065——————36%50%14%————————— [121]
31 May–24 June 2023Newspoll385246%41%13%48%41%11%40%54%6%39%52%9%45%46%9%43%48%9% [50]
17–19 June 2023Institute of Public Affairs660————————————39%42%19%——— [122]
17 June 2023 [lower-alpha 1] Painted Dog1050—————————57%43%——————— [123]
7–11 June 2023Essential112362%38%—62%38%—57%43%—52%48%—53%47%———— [60]
2–6 June 2023JWS Research112241%47%12%44%42%14%45%46%9%61%33%6%43%42%15%——— [55]
May–June 2023Resolve Strategic321753%47%—56%44%—44%56%—49%51%—48%52%—57%43%— [54]
26–29 May 2023Roy Morgan183348%38%14%47%32%21%39%46%15%41%35%24%47%32%21%42%26%32% [57]
26 May 2023 [lower-alpha 1] Finder98248%38%13%51%35%14%43%44%13%49%42%10%43%44%13%——— [58]
10–14 May 2023Essential108064%36%—61%39%—49%51%—52%48%—61%39%———— [60]
14–18 April 2023Roy Morgan118146%38%16%52%31%17%41%46%13%46%41%13%39%50%11%38%33%29% [64]
13–18 April 2023SEC Newgate120054%26%20%60%20%20%41%34%25%43%30%27%—————— [65]
12–16 April 2023Essential113659%41%—56%44%—55%45%—70%30%—64%36%———— [60]
5 April 2023The federal Liberal Party announces its opposition. [124]
February–April 2023Newspoll475655%36%9%56%35%9%49%43%8%51%41%8%60%33%7%55%39%6% [72]
25–26 March 2023Painted Dog1052—————————54%35%11%—————— [lower-alpha 2] [125]
1–21 March 2023YouGov1506052%32%16%53%31%16%47%40%14%48%37%15%51%34%16%50%35%15% [73]
15–19 March 2023Essential112461%39%—67%33%—49%51%—55%45%—62%38%———— [60]
February–March 2023Resolve Strategic1600——————52%48%—52%48%——————— [76]
24–27 February 2023JWS Research94052%32%16%54%35%11%48%38%13%50%42%9%46%38%15%——— [78]
1–5 February 2023Essential100063%37%—64%36%—65%35%—68%32%—62%38%———— [60]
December 2022–January 2023Resolve Strategic321758%42%—65%35%—56%44%—61%39%—56%44%—71%29%— [86]
14–17 January 2023YouGov106946%30%24%——————————————— [126] [127]
2–6 January 2023Painted Dog1124—————————51%27%22%—————— [128]
9–12 December 2022Roy Morgan149952%29%19%55%28%17%44%38%18%63%26%11%54%33%13%68%24%8% [88]
7–11 December 2022Essential107566%34%—66%34%—56%44%—56%44%—60%40%———— [60]
28 November 2022The federal National Party announces its opposition. [91]
5–10 October 2022SEC Newgate120756%——60%——53%——49%——53%————— [2]
August–September 2022Resolve Strategic361865%35%—64%36%—59%41%—60%40%—71%29%—73%27%— [92]
12–15 August 2022JWS Research100043%24%34%44%17%39%38%31%31%40%25%36%40%27%33%——— [93]
3–7 August 2022Essential107565%35%—63%37%—62%38%—75%25%—60%40%———— [60]
30 July 2022PM Anthony Albanese reveals draft amendment wording. [129]
11–24 July 2022Scanlon Institute575762%——62%——51%——59%——57%————— [2]
13–15 July 2022Australia Institute100162%12%25%71%12%17%66%11%23%63%22%15%—————— [96]
14–17 June 2022Australia Institute100159%15%26%57%13%30%57%21%22%57%22%21%—————— [96]
21 May 2022Labor wins the 2022 federal election, pledging a first-term referendum. [130]
9–18 February 2021Omnipoll145663%10%27%67%11%22%57%16%27%59%14%28%57%11%32%74%11%15% [lower-alpha 3] [102]
5–7 December 2017Australia Institute141750%28%22%51%24%25%41%33%26%36%38%26%45%26%30%——— [1]
3–10 August 2017Omnipoll152662%29%9%63%28%9%60%33%7%57%33%11%56%31%13%44%49%7% [1]
26 May 2017In the Uluru Statement, Indigenous leaders call for a constitutional Voice. [131]

Results by party affiliation

Date(s)FirmSample Labor Coalition Greens One Nation OtherRef.
YNDKYNDKYNDKYNDKYNDK
14 October 2023Voting day for all in-person voting across Australia. [5]
2–12 October 2023 Roy Morgan 141972%18%10%10%81%9%83%10%7%———30%61%9% [lower-alpha 4] [9]
6–10 October 2023 YouGov 151953%40%8%20%75%3%70%25%5%—————— [10]
3–6 October 2023 Newspoll 122556%36%8%———————————— [14]
22 September–4 October 2023Resolve Strategic472867%33%—16%84%—80%20%——————— [15]
18 September–2 October 2023Focaldata460855%45%—18%82%—73%27%—12%88%—24%76%— [lower-alpha 5] [17]
25–29 September 2023YouGov156349%41%10%22%73%5%70%24%6%—————— [132]
22–24 September 2023Freshwater Strategy100351%31%18%20%71%9%————————— [21]
18–24 September 2023Roy Morgan183367%18%15%12%76%12%83%5%12%2%94%4%22%62%16% [lower-alpha 6] [133]
18–22 September 2023Newspoll123956%36%8%———————————— [23] [24]
13–21 September 2023RedBridge150051%49%—19%81%—75%25%————28%72%— [134]
13–16 September 2023Essential113558%33%8%26%70%4%70%20%10%———24%71%5% [135]
6–9 September 2023Resolve Strategic160460%40%—16%84%—78%22%——————— [31]
30 August–4 September 2023RedBridge100157%43%—13%87%—77%23%————20%80%— [32] [33] [116]
5 September 2023Essential104361%39%—26%74%—71%29%————18%82%— [136]
28 August–1 September 2023Newspoll120061%31%8%———64%26%10%—————— [35]
2–5 August 2023Essential104358%8%34%25%68%7%70%19%11%———30%64%6% [137]
12–15 July 2023Resolve Strategic161050%28%23%17%64%19%69%12%19%———20%58%22% [43]
5–9 July 2023Essential102264%26%10%33%60%7%73%18%9%———25%68%25% [46]
4–7 July 2023Australia Institute100465%21%14%37%49%14%74%8%18%14%78%8%36%40%24% [47]
19 June 2023The Constitutional Amendment bill passes through the Senate. [138]
7–11 June 2023Essential112372%28%—43%57%—83%17%————38%62%— [52]
5–11 June 2023Resolve Strategic160656%28%16%20%63%17%76%13%11%———23%57%20% [lower-alpha 7] [54]
31 May–3 June 2023Newspoll154963%———64%—71%——————64%— [56]
26–29 May 2023Roy Morgan183367%12%21%10%73%17%90%3%7%2%86%12%30%50%20% [lower-alpha 8] [57]
10–14 May 2023Essential113671%29%—45%55%—81%19%————41%59%— [60]
10–13 May 2023Resolve Strategic161069%31%—27%73%—83%17%——————— [62]
14–18 April 2023Roy Morgan118175%14%11%6%74%20%89%5%6%7%89%4%21%50%29% [lower-alpha 9] [139]
13–18 April 2023SEC Newgate1200———26%50%24%————————— [65]
12–16 April 2023Essential113676%24%—41%59%—81%18%————45%54%— [67]
5 April 2023The federal Liberal Party announces its opposition. [124]
29 March–1 April 2023Newspoll150072%———55%—————————— [72]
15–19 March 2023Essential112478%22%—43%57%—77%23%————41%59%— [75]
12–16 March 2023Resolve Strategic160072%28%—33%67%—86%14%————44%56%— [76]
1–4 March 2023Newspoll153068%21%11%35%——————————— [77]
1–6 February 2023SEC Newgate147865%——32%43%25%77%———————— [81]
1–5 February 2023Essential100077%23%—41%59%—89%11%————52%48%— [83]
1–4 February 2023Newspoll151274%18%8%37%59%4%81%10%9%———41%53%6% [84]
December 2022–January 2023Resolve Strategic321761%——27%——72%—————45%—— [lower-alpha 10] [86] [2]
9–12 December 2022Roy Morgan149976%9%15%15%64%21%89%2%9%18%71%11%59%25%16% [lower-alpha 11] [88]
7–11 December 2022Essential107575%25%—46%54%—84%16%————51%49%— [89] [2]
28 November – 2 December 2022Institute of Public Affairs100045%27%28%30%49%21%57%10%33%21%50%29%27%32%41% [lower-alpha 12] [90]
28 November 2022The federal National Party announces its opposition. [91]
5–10 October 2022SEC Newgate120764%——37%——78%———————— [2]
7 October 2022Compass Polling100175%25%—45%55%—82%18%—12%88%—52%48%— [lower-alpha 13] [2]
11–15 August 2022SEC Newgate180455%——41%——83%—————47%—— [2]
3–7 August 2022Essential107577%23%—53%47%—81%19%————56%44%— [94] [2]
30 July 2022PM Anthony Albanese reveals draft amendment wording. [129]
11–24 July 2022Scanlon Institute575770%——40%——86%—————46%—— [2]
13–15 July 2022Australia Institute100170%8%22%56%23%21%82%7%12%59%25%16%65%7%28% [96] [2]
14–17 June 2022Australia Institute100160%8%23%49%26%25%71%15%15%35%28%37%48%13%39% [96] [2]
25–30 May 2022Essential108966%——44%——77%—————50%—— [97] [2]
23–27 May 2022SEC Newgate140369%——40%——82%—————55%—— [2]
21 May 2022Labor wins the 2022 federal election, pledging a first-term referendum. [130]
2–6 May 2019Essential107955%——31%——65%—————37%—— [106] [1]
15–18 February 2018Newspoll163276%16%8%38%48%14%87%10%3%38%50%12%——— [1]
5–7 December 2017Australia Institute141750%26%24%41%35%24%75%10%15%23%48%29%41%28%31% [1]
3–6 November 2017Essential102561%——37%24%39%67%———————— [140] [1]
3–10 August 2017Omnipoll152667%24%9%55%41%4%80%10%10%———45%46%9% [1]
1–5 June 2017Essential101351%—————74%———————— [109] [1]
26 May 2017In the Uluru Statement, Indigenous leaders call for a constitutional Voice. [131]

Other polls

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians

Two polls surveying Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people's views on the Indigenous Voice commissioned in early 2023 by The Uluru Dialogue, a pro-Voice lobby group, were conducted online by Ipsos and YouGov. Both found broad support for the Voice: 80% in the Ipsos survey and 83% in the YouGov survey. The YouGov result compared to 51% support in the broader population. These results have been cited by Yes campaign figures, including Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, as evidence for broad Indigenous support for the Voice. [3]

The ABC conducted a review of Indigenous-specific polling in August 2023, consulting with polling experts Kevin Bonham, William Bowe, and Simon Jackman. All agreed there was nothing to suggest "anything other than broad support among First Nations Australians" and particularly endorsed the YouGov poll. Caveats included the small sample size associated with the Ipsos poll, the recency of the polls (both having been months out of date at the time of the review) and questions over whether online samples adequately represented remote Indigenous communities, although this was noted as a lesser concern given that the proportion of Indigenous people living in remote areas is often overestimated. [3]

Late in the campaign, Resolve Strategic found 59% of Indigenous Australians in support, compared to 44% support in the broader population. This was a considerable decrease from the near-80% support in the Ipsos and YouGov polls, but still represented a majority. [141] Another late poll from Focaldata found about 70% in support, but the firm urged caution in interpreting the figure because it was based on a sample of about 250 Indigenous Australians. [17]

Passing the Message Stick, a research group aiming to discover strategies for a Yes victory in the referendum, found in a telephone survey 24% of Indigenous people opposed the Voice and 42% either did not know about the referendum or had heard very little. These results was initially presented in a webinar with a limited audience (400 people), but later more widely reported. The results have been cited by No campaigners to dispute the Yes campaign's perspective of broad Indigenous support. However, the ABC excluded this survey from consideration in their review of Indigenous-specific polling, because not enough information about its results and methodologies was publicly available. [3]

The No campaign conducted three internal polls on Indigenous support from February to May 2023, though only two results were publicly released, showing a fall in support from 60% in February to 57% in May. These results compared with 59% (February) and 54% (May) support among the broader population. These polls were not publicly reported until early October. No details were provided regarding sample sizes, precise questions asked, or methodologies. [113]

Indigenous Voice polls surveying Indigenous Australians
DatesFirmSampleYesNoDKRef.
22 September–4 October 2023Resolve42059%41%— [141]
18 September–2 October 2023Focaldata25070%30%— [17]
May 2023No campaign—57%—— [113]
1–21 March 2023YouGov73283%14%4% [73] [3]
February 2023No campaign—60%—— [113]
February 2023Passing the Message Stick219—24%— [142] [3]
20–24 January 2023Ipsos30080%10%10% [143]
November 2016–May 2017Cox Inall Ridgeway30080%—— [111]

Weighted media audience surveys

Some media organisations have surveyed their audiences about their views, then weighted the results by various demographic factors in an attempt to make the results nationally representative.

Weighted media audience surveys on establishing an Indigenous Voice
DatesMedia organisationSampleYesNoDKRef.
22 August–4 September 2023Australian Community Media860034%61%5% [144]
16–26 June 2023Australian Community Media1013138%55%7% [145]
10–21 April 2022Australian Broadcasting Corporation29245773%16%11% [146]
10–28 April 2019Australian Broadcasting Corporation36809764%22%14% [146]

Australian Reconciliation Barometer

Since 2018, Reconciliation Australia has included a question in its biennial poll, the Australian Reconciliation Barometer, on whether it is important to "protect a First Nations Body in the Constitution". Although this poll has drawn academic attention, there is some dispute over whether the data from this question is suitable for discovering public opinion on the Indigenous Voice. Francis Markham and William Sanders included the question in their analysis, taking respondents indicating importance to be expressing support for the Voice and respondents indicating unimportance, opposition. [1] Murray Goot, terming the question "quite general", did not believe it specifically referred to the Voice. [2]

Australian Reconciliation Barometer polls
Date(s)FirmSampleImportantUnimportantRef.
21 July–28 August 2022Polity Research252279%21% [147]
1–15 July 2020Polity Research198881%19% [148]
16–30 July 2018Polity Research199577%23% [147]

Notes

  1. 1 2 Precise dates conducted were unreported.
  2. ↑ Poll also provided forced-choice results: 60 Y, 40 N.
  3. ↑ 2021 state figures give combined support for legislated and constitutional Voice.
  4. ↑ Roy Morgan also published results for voters supporting independents (Y 38%, N 42% DK 20%).
  5. ↑ Focaldata also published results for voters supporting the United Australia Party (Y 35%, N 65%) and independents (Y 30%, N 70%).
  6. ↑ Roy Morgan also published results for voters supporting independents (Y 42%, N 42%, DK 16%).
  7. ↑ Resolve Strategic also published results for uncommitted voters (Y 37%, N 38%, DK 25%).
  8. ↑ Roy Morgan also published results for voters supporting independents (Y 49%, N 26%, DK 25%).
  9. ↑ Roy Morgan also published results for voters supporting independents (Y 40%, N 32%, DK 28%).
  10. ↑ Reported as single poll, but conducted in two stages (December (1611 respondents) and 17–22 January (1606 respondents)) to obtain a larger sample size.
  11. ↑ Roy Morgan also published results for voters supporting independents (Y 54%, N 21%, DK 25%).
  12. ↑ The Institute of Public Affairs also published results for voters supporting teal independents (Y 39%, N 33%, DK 28%).
  13. ↑ Compass Polling also published results for voters supporting the United Australia Party (Y 47%, N 53%) and independents (Y 54%, N 46%).

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References

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  134. ↑ https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Support-for-the-Voice-to-Parliament-research-2023-09-21.pdf
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