Tornado outbreak sequence of May 19–27, 2024

Last updated

On May 21, the SPC issued another Moderate risk for severe weather in the states of Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Illinois, including a 15% risk for significant tornadoes. [34] Upper-air soundings observed steep lapse rates in the middle troposphere over parts of Kansas and Missouri on the morning of May 21. The SPC predicted that these conditions would spread into the primary severe weather risk area, overlapping with a moist airmass with dew points approaching 70 °F (21 °C) and leading to strong potential atmospheric instability. [35] That morning, an organized cluster of thunderstorms moved into Iowa after having produced severe wind gusts in central and eastern Nebraska. This line of storms continued across central and eastern Iowa just north of a warm front, presenting a continued threat for damaging wind gusts. [36] Additional storms began to develop along the border between Kansas and Nebraska ahead of an approaching trough. The SPC anticipated that the atmospheric environment over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa would become increasingly conducive for further organization of these storms into supercells. [37] A tornado watch was issued by the SPC for areas near and along the Nebraska–Iowa border region at 11:10 a.m. CDT in anticipation of these changes. [38] At 1:10 p.m. CDT, the SPC issued a tornado watch flagged as a particularly dangerous situation for much of Iowa and parts of surrounding states, including an 80% likelihood of a significant tornado occurring within the watch area. [39] Supercells were active over southwestern Iowa by the mid-afternoon, approaching an environment favorable for tornadogenesis leading into the Des Moines area. [40]

Multiple tornadoes were reported in Iowa, including a damaging tornado near Corning and in Greenfield, where multiple fatalities were reported. [41] [10] Tornadoes were also reported in Minnesota and Wisconsin. [41]

May 22

Extreme vegetation damage associated with an EF3 that occurred south of Sterling City, TX. Sterling City, TX Vegetation Damage.jpg
Extreme vegetation damage associated with an EF3 that occurred south of Sterling City, TX.

On May 22, the SPC outlined an Enhanced risk extending from central Texas across southeastern Oklahoma, extreme northwestern Louisiana, and southwestern Arkansas. [42] In Texas, a cold front stretched from the Red River southwestward into the Permian Basin, with a surface trough just ahead of that front. Supercells were expected to evolve within a sheared and deeply unstable environment given effective wind shear of 60 kn (70 mph; 110 km/h) and mixed-layer CAPE of 3,000 J/kg. As such, very large hail was anticipated to be the main threat, although isolated tornadoes were possible too before storms grew upscale into one or more convective lines. [43] To the northeast, lines of storms tracked across Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Tennessee, with a primary risk of damaging winds and large hail. [44] [45] Meanwhile, intense supercells developed across central Texas in a very unstable and deeply sheared environment, riding along outflow boundaries that enhanced the tornado threat. [46] A particularly intense EF3 tornado developed southwest of Sterling City where rocks, grass, and topsoil were stripped off of the ground. A 300 yd (270 m) wide path of trees were debarked and sandblasted, with only trunks remaining in some cases. Caliche roads were also stripped. [47] Ongoing storms across Texas eventually evolved into an intense mesoscale convective system moving across eastern portions of the state and into Louisiana through the late evening. [48]

May 23–24

Meso-gamma discussion on May 23, 2024, in parts of TX/OK SPC Mesoscale Discussion 918 (2024).png
Meso-gamma discussion on May 23, 2024, in parts of TX/OK

On May 23, the SPC issued an Enhanced risk over central Nebraska to Western Iowa for the threat of damaging winds. Conditions weren't quite as favorable this day compared to others with dew points only expected to reach the upper 50s °F, creating conditions for high-base supercells, lowering the tornado potential. However, CAPE values were still able to reach 1000-3000 J/kg. Combined with shear reaching 45-55 kts, conditions were favorable for severe weather. [49] Storms initiated along a front over northwest Nebraska around 4pm CDT, though the line quickly dissipated with only a supercell able to maintain itself as it went around the corner of Colorado as it produced several tornadoes. [50] Eventually the line reformed over Southern Nebraska and began to produce damaging winds, growing to the height of the state at 1am CDT. Despite nighttime cooling, the line maintained itself and swept across all of Iowa bringing damaging winds up to 85 mph to the entire state and producing brief, weak tornadoes. [51]

Meanwhile, in Texas and Oklahoma, a Slight Risk for all hazards was issued, though the tornado threat was seen as secondary to the more likely hail threat, with dew points in the low 70s °F and CAPE values around 3000 J/kg, but a supercellular storm mode. [49] Supercells initially developed over western Texas, though failed to sustain themselves, except for a cluster that sustained themselves on the TX/OK border. [50]

For May 24, the SPC initially issued a large Slight Risk from Southern Wisconsin to Central Texas, but in the 1300z Outlook upgraded northeast Illinois (for damaging winds) and a thin area of western/southern Oklahoma and northern Texas (for large hail) to an Enhanced Risk. [52] The line MCS from the previous night in Iowa continued into the late morning and produced a couple tornadoes over that area of Illinois. Following this, little tornado activity occurred during the day. [53] However, due to its long-lived hazard of damaging winds and long track length, the MCS was officially declared as a derecho by the Storm Prediction Center. [54]

May 25–27

Damage from an EF2 tornado in Rogers, Arkansas. Processed-31CD5AE4-D6DA-4964-9A47-4299779E7C59.jpg
Damage from an EF2 tornado in Rogers, Arkansas.

On May 25, the SPC warned of an outbreak of severe thunderstorms across a level 4/Moderate risk area that encompassed much of Oklahoma and Kansas, as well as southwestern Missouri. In this region, forecasters expected the development of a few discrete supercells that would be capable of producing giant hail and strong to violent tornadoes. Across the northern portion of the risk, these supercells were forecast to evolve into a mesoscale convective system with swaths of damaging winds into the overnight hours. [55] The potential for a level 5/High risk was discussed by forecasters in the preceding 24 hours given "a rare combination of instability and shear" that was depicted by model guidance. [56] However, multiple uncertainties precluded a categorical upgrade, particularly questions about the influence of storms in Texas on the risk area farther north. A broad upper-level trough existed over the Western United States, with several embedded shortwaves, one of which was expected to translate across the risk area during the afternoon. A stationary boundary lifted northward as a warm front while a dryline sharpened from western Kansas into western Texas. In the warm sector between these boundaries, dewpoints rose into the upper 60s to even mid-70s °F, aiding in the development of extreme mixed-layer instability of 4,000–5,000 J/kg. [57] [58] A particularly dangerous situation tornado watch was subsequently issued for portions of extreme northern Texas, much of Oklahoma, and south-central Kansas. [59]

Shortly thereafter, multiple supercells evolved over time across Texas and Oklahoma, but the convective evolution quickly became messy as splitting storms developed in close proximity. [60] Additional supercells evolved across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, but those too underwent negative interaction with left-split storms and their accompanying outflow approaching from the south. [61] [62] As a result, central Oklahoma was completely void of storms for the entire day. Just before midnight, however two distinct areas of severe weather became the focus of intense tornadic activity. To the south, a discrete supercell developed within an extremely sheared environment north of the Dallas–Fort Worth metropolitan area. This supercell produced five tornadoes over the course of three hours, the first of which was a deadly low-end EF3 tornado near Valley View, Texas, before dissipating. [63] To the north, several supercells formed in northeastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, while a southeast-propagating mesoscale convective system developed across northern Kansas. A line of discrete storms also formed in eastern Oklahoma, but they all quickly dissipated. [64] Meanwhile, the supercells moved eastward across northeastern Oklahoma, southern Missouri, and northern Arkansas continued into the pre-dawn hours, [65] resulting in multiple large, intense, and fatal tornadoes. A bowing mesoscale convective system evolved across the mid-Mississippi River Valley by sunrise. [66]

An EF2 tornado near Washington, Indiana, on May 26 EF2 tornado near Washington, Indiana May 26, 2024.jpg
An EF2 tornado near Washington, Indiana, on May 26

As the convective line with a history of damaging wind gusts spread eastward across the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys through the morning hours, it encountered a warming and destabilizing airmass, further increasing the severe threat. [67] This initial line moved toward portions of West Virginia, Virginia, and North Carolina and was subsequently trailed by a secondary line of convection across western portions Kentucky and Tennessee. [68] [69] Cumulatively, this resulted in hundreds of damaging wind reports. [70] Meanwhile, farther to the south and west, forecasters became increasingly concerned about a corridor from southeastern Missouri eastward into western Kentucky and adjacent areas. Here, the influx of warm and dry air aloft allowed for the rapid destabilization of the atmosphere previously impacted by morning storms. An outflow boundary from that convection was expected to become the focal point for enhanced tornadic activity. As such, the SPC outlined a level 4/Moderate risk across portions of the Tennessee and Ohio river valleys due to increased confidence in an outbreak of damaging winds and strong tornadoes. Supercells began to develop across southwestern Missouri during the early afternoon. [71] As they continued eastward, they encountered an increasingly favorable environment, with MLCAPE over 3,500 J/kg and effective wind shear around 50 kn (60 mph; 90 km/h). [72] Additional storms began to develop in the open warm sector across Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky as well. [73] As these supercells interacted with the remnant outflow boundary, they resulted in the formation of several strong tornadoes. [74] By the evening hours, these storms were quickly trailed by a well-organized and intense line of convection moving toward the southeast. [75] This line remained vigorous for several hours even as it encountered a more stable airmass, but finally began to lose strength as it approached the Appalachian Mountains region, resulting in a gradually diminishing severe threat through the morning of May 27. [76] [77] While severe storms formed across the eastern part of the continent on May 27, only a few weak tornadoes touched down in multiple areas in Georgia and Pennsylvania, as well as an EF1 tornado near the Ontario-Quebec border in Rigaud, Quebec.

Confirmed tornadoes

Tornado outbreak sequence of May 19–27, 2024
Tornado outbreak sequence of May 19-27, 2024.png
Map of tornado warnings and confirmed tornadoes from the outbreak sequence
Confirmed tornadoes by Enhanced Fujita rating
EFUEF0EF1EF2EF3EF4EF5Total
2673115211210248

Greenfield, Iowa

Nodaway–Corning–Greenfield, Iowa

The start of the 2024 Indianapolis 500 was delayed on May 26th due to thunderstorms near the event. [105] On May 27, a New York Mets game against the Los Angeles Dodgers was postponed for a day due to the severe storms, [106] with severe storms also resulting in ground stops at both LaGuardia Airport and John F. Kennedy International Airport. [107] Up to 2.67 in (68 mm) of rain fell in Roxbury Township, New Jersey. [108] One person was killed in Colorado due to a lightning strike, [8] while another person was killed when straight-line winds downed a tree onto them in Anchorage, Kentucky. [82] A very large area of damaging straight-line winds impacted Central Alabama on May 27. Many large tree limbs were snapped, some trees were uprooted, and at least one home suffered minor exterior damage. [82]

Iowa

Several people were killed, and dozens injured in Greenfield, Iowa. Hospitals in the Adair County Health System were evacuated.[ citation needed ] Multiple fatalities and at least a dozen injuries have been confirmed. There is also a curfew in effect indefinitely, and authorities have limited traffic in and out of town. [109] [ needs update ]

Southern United States

The May 25–26 severe weather outbreak killed at least 26 people in total, including seven in Texas, two in Oklahoma, eight in Arkansas, five in Kentucky, one in Alabama, [5] [6] two in Missouri, [7] and one in Colorado. [8] At least 16 of these deaths were due to tornadoes.[ citation needed ]

See also

References

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