Tornado outbreak sequence of May 2003

Last updated

Weather maps of the continental U.S. at 12:00 UTC (7:00 a.m. CDT) on May 10
2003-05-10 500-Millibar Height Contour Map NOAA.png
Winds and height of the 500 mbar (500 hPa; 15 inHg) pressure level

A meteorologist at National Weather Service St. Louis, Missouri, described the weather pattern over the U.S. as "synoptically evident" for severe weather on May 10. [167] A powerful shortwave trough was forecast to move out of the southwestern U.S. into the southern Great Plains during the day, dragging along a portion of the jet stream with winds exceeding 100 kn (120 mph; 190 km/h). The approach of this jet stream was expected to increase the divergence of air aloft, leading to the cyclogenesis of a low-pressure area over the central Mississippi Valley that would track northeast towards the Great Lakes. [168] This weather pattern would lead to the low-pressure system and its associated frontal boundaries moving through an unstable air mass exhibiting wind shear as high as 91 kn (105 mph; 169 km/h), leading to a potentially significant outbreak of severe weather. [167] [168] While the SPC initially indicated a Moderate Risk of severe weather for the day for an area centered on the central Mississippi Valley, [168] a High Risk was later delineated for parts of northeastern Missouri and central Illinois in the agency's 13:00 UTC (8:00 a.m. CDT) forecast update as the potential for strong tornadoes became increasingly evident. [169]

At around midnight, a low-pressure area was centered over central Oklahoma and southwestern Kansas, with a warm front extended out towards Chanute, Kansas. Strong 50–60 kn (58–69 mph; 93–111 km/h) winds aloft brought warm and moist air into the region, leading to enhanced convergence of air and fueling thunderstorm development along the warm front. [170] Some of these storms acquired supercell characteristics. [171] [172] The intense supercell that had produced the tornadoes in Oklahoma the previous day continued into May 10, accompanied by dew points above 70 °F (21 °C) and a moderately unstable environment characterized by CAPE values between 2500 and 3000 J/kg; [162] [173] the storm spawned a final F1 tornado in Creek County at 05:25 UTC (12:25 a.m. CDT) before dissipating. [162] Another pair of F0 tornadoes occurred in Butler at around 08:00 UTC (3:00 a.m. CDT). [20] Widespread thunderstorms were also active early in the morning between Indiana and Pennsylvania in connection with a broad swath of rising air within an unstable air mass with dew points approaching 70 °F (21 °C). [173]

As the warm front over the central U.S. developed further, additional storms initiated over northern Missouri by 11 UTC (6:00 a.m. CDT). [174] [169] These storms organized into a mesoscale convective system and tracked east towards central Illinois along and north of the warm front, later developing a mesoscale convective vortex. [175] [176] Isolated supercells later developed in the morning over central Illinois and western Indiana, aided by strong winds in the mid-levels of the troposphere and strong wind shear in the lower-levels of the troposphere. [177] [178] Eight tornadoes touched down in Illinois and Indiana between 12 and 17 UTC (7 a.m.–12 p.m. CDT); the strongest of these tornadoes was rated F1. [20] The complex of storms also enhanced the advection of warm air downrange farther east, bolstering the development of thunderstorms farther east by destabilizing the local air mass. [179] [180] This favorable environment for rising air continued to spread east in tandem with a shortwave trough tracking across the Ohio Valley, extending conducive conditions for thunderstorm development eastward to Virginia and North Carolina in the early afternoon. [181] [182] An F3 tornado tracked 25 mi (40 km) across Mason and Lewis counties in Kentucky from 20:45–21:25 UTC (4:45–5:25 p.m. EDT); this was Kentucky's only tornado that day. [20] Clusters of supercells developed and persisted over the Ohio Valley and over Virginia and North Carolina through the afternoon and evening, [183] [184] leading the SPC to issue three tornado watches. [185]

The SPC's convective outlook for May 10, indicating a High Risk of severe weather near St. Louis May 10, 2003 SPC High Risk.gif
The SPC's convective outlook for May 10, indicating a High Risk of severe weather near St. Louis

Farther west, an outflow boundary remained between St. Louis, Missouri and east-central Kansas in the wake of the thunderstorms earlier in the morning, serving as a potential region for rapid thunderstorm development. [186] An atmospheric sounding taken over Oklahoma City at 12 UTC (7 a.m. CDT) indicated that a robust capping inversion was in place over the region, though satellite imagery and radar data also indicated that storms were beginning to develop vertically by around 14:17 UTC (9:17 a.m. CDT). [187] At 16:30 UTC (11:30 a.m. CDT), the SPC expanded the High Risk region to include a wider swath from northeastern Oklahoma to Ohio as confidence increased in an afternoon and overnight tornado outbreak with strong to violent tornadoes materializing. [186] [188] As the area of low pressure over the central U.S. intensified, the air mass over eastern Kansas and western Missouri rapidly destabilized at around 17 UTC (12 p.m. CDT). [189]

Warm and moist air also advanced north into southeastern Iowa and western Illinois ahead of the low-pressure region, [190] with conducive conditions for tornadogenesis eventually extending as far north as southern Wisconsin after 23 UTC (6 p.m. CDT) as the low-pressure area quickly strengthened over Iowa. [191] Isolated thunderstorms and towering cumulus clouds began to rapidly form along a dry line over central Oklahoma by around noon, with the local atmospheric conditions supportive of strong tornadoes. [192] Additional supercell thunderstorms quickly emerged over Missouri and eastern Kansas over the next few hours, surrounding by an unstable air mass with CAPE values between 4000 and 5000 J/kg and high wind shear. [193] Though wind shear was high enough to inhibit tornadogenesis, cyclical thunderstorm developments increased the odds of tornadogenesis as the storms tracked east. [194]

At 21:02 UTC (4:02 p.m. CDT), an F0 tornado briefly touched down in Linn County, Missouri. [195] Over the next seven hours, 38 tornadoes were documented across primarily rural areas of Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, and Wisconsin. [20] [167] Most of these tornadoes were spawned by nine discrete supercells that formed after 19 UTC (2 p.m. CDT) in western Missouri and southeastern Kansas along the dry line. These afternoon and evening storms were also enhanced by the outflow boundary left behind by the morning storms over Missouri: the boundary created a strong density gradient, increased wind shear, and lowered the height of the lifting condensation level, producing a localized area of heightened favorability for tornado formation. [167] [196] Two of the tornadoes—one in Missouri and the other in Illinois—received an F3 rating; these were the highest-rated tornadoes of the day. [20] [167] The longest-tracked tornado of the day, rated F2, touched down near Canton, Missouri, and lifted near Lima, Illinois, resulting in a tornadic path length spanning 89 mi (143 km). [167] The supercells persisted overnight, tracking towards the Great Lakes region with the nearby low-pressure area continuing to intensify. [197] [198] [199] The day's final tornado lifted from Woodford County, Illinois, at 03:35 UTC (10:35 p.m. CDT). [20]

May 11

Tornado outbreak sequence of May 2003
FEMA - 8017 - Photograph by Bob McMillan taken on 05-10-2003 in Oklahoma.jpg
An F4 tornado came through Moore, Oklahoma and destroyed most of the areas affected by the 1999 Bridge Creek-Moore tornado.
Confirmed tornadoes on May 11, 2003
FUF0F1F2F3F4F5Total
019230015

The SPC predicted that the outbreak of severe weather that began on May 10 would continue into May 11, projecting a High Risk of severe weather over parts of Illinois and Indiana that would continue into the morning hours of May 11; additional severe weather was also expected throughout much of the Ohio and Mississippi valleys as the low-pressure system over Iowa intensified. A strong cold front extending south-southwest from the low-pressure area to northwestern Texas was expected to be a catalyst for severe weather as it swept through a moderately unstable air mass with strong winds throughout much of the troposphere. [200] [201] Many of the thunderstorms active across the Mississippi Valley towards the end of May 10 began to coalesce into linear complexes of storms towards the end of the day. [202] These storms continued into May 11, developing into a squall line with embedded bow echoes that extended from western Indiana southwestward to the Mississippi River near Memphis, Tennessee. The storms were supported by an unstable air mass with dew points above 70 °F (21 °C) as they tracked east at 40–45 kn (46–52 mph; 74–83 km/h), [203] producing strong winds and tornadoes. [204] According to the National Climatic Data Center, 11 tornadoes touched down in Kentucky and Tennessee between 6–11 UTC (1–6 a.m. CDT), though a 2015 reanalysis conducted by the National Weather Service Nashville, Tennessee, found additional tornadoes that placed the total at 15. [20] [205] The first tornado was an F3 tornado that touched down in McLean County, Kentucky, at around 06:18 UTC (1:18 a.m. CDT). [20] There were two other F3 tornadoes in central Tennessee, with one tracking across both Hickman and Williamson counties and the other striking parts of Rutherford County. [205] The squall line persisted into the later part of the morning, moving across eastern Tennessee towards western North Carolina and Virginia. [206]

By around 13:00 UTC (8:00 a.m. CDT), the extratropical cyclone that had intensified over the central and midwestern U.S. over the past day reached the upper Great Lakes region. While the squall line had begun to weaken by this point over the lower Appalachians, the SPC predicted that reintensification of the squall line along Interstate 95 was likely. The agency highlighted a Moderate Risk of severe weather across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states, with damaging winds constituting the primary severe weather threat. [207] Warm advection led to the formation and intensification of isolated storms over New York and Pennsylvania by around 14 UTC (10 a.m. EDT). [208] By 14:30 UTC (10:30 a.m. EDT), clearing skies ahead of an advancing cold front led to rapid destabilization of the air mass over eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, western New York, and northern West Virginia, with CAPE values reaching 1000–2000 J/kg amid dew points nearing 70 °F (21 °C). [209] The SPC issued a tornado watch an hour later for this destabilizing region. [210] Another tornado watch, tagged as a Particularly Dangerous Situation, was issued by the SPC at 17:50 UTC (1:50 p.m. EDT) for central New York and central and eastern Pennsylvania as showers began to increase ahead of the approaching cold front. [211]

Although the SPC anticipated a considerable outbreak of severe weather along the strong cold front the day's severe weather was ultimately isolated and limited to parts of New York and Pennsylvania. [201] [212] There were only two weak tornadoes on May 11 in connection with the storms that passed through this region: an F0 tornado Lycoming County, Pennsylvania, and an F1 tornado in Wayne County, New York. [20] [201] The lack of storm activity despite otherwise conducive atmospheric conditions may have been caused by subsiding air in the mid-levels of the troposphere over the region as a result of convergent winds aloft, limiting the coverage and depth of thunderstorms. [212] The lack of strong thermal gradients where instability was highest also contributed to the lack of severe weather. [212] While the storms that produced the two tornadoes exhibited strong rotation, most storms on May 11 did not produce any substantial severe weather. [201] Unlike in previous days, the day also featured a strong cold front that swept across the U.S., displacing the moist and unstable air mass that had remained over the central and eastern U.S. [3] After May 11, the development of a ridge of high pressure over the Rocky Mountains—as opposed to the persistence of low pressure over the western U.S. in previous days—precipitated the end of the period of severe weather that began on May 3. [4]

Confirmed tornadoes

Confirmed tornadoes by Fujita rating
FUF0F1F2F3F4F5Total
0180121362060363
Confirmed tornadoes and tornado warnings from
21:00 UTC April 30–19:00 UTC May 11, 2003
US tornadoes and tornado warnings April 30-May 11, 2003 animation.gif
 F0 tornado F3 tornado
 F1 tornado F4 tornado
 F2 tornado  Tornado warning

Kansas City metropolitan area

12 mile (0.8 km) wide at points. Major devastation occurred in Franklin, as numerous buildings and homes were demolished, with some swept away. and Three people were killed in town, and 20 others were injured. The tornado continued producing "high end F4" damage to homes as it passed the town of Mulberry, where a train was derailed from the winds of the storm, and crossed into Barton County, Missouri. In Missouri, the twister demolished several farm houses, killing an 88-year-old man. Some of the homes were swept completely away. Its path began to narrow several miles into Missouri; video and eyewitness accounts suggest that the tornado was "roping out" at this point. It finally lifted to the north of Liberal, Missouri after having traveled for approximately 35 miles (56 km). Almost immediately after the Franklin tornado lifted, a second large tornado was reported to have touched down on the east side of Liberal. The Franklin tornado was covered on an episode of The Weather Channel's Storm Stories , and was described by meteorologist Jim Cantore as "one of the most violent tornadoes ever caught on film- a twister that would shred southeast Kansas".[ citation needed ]

Jackson—Lexington, Tennessee

The tornado touched down in the southwest part of Madison county near Denmark and tracked east through the downtown section of Jackson. The tornado continued to move east and eventually crossed into Henderson county. Nine people were killed in mobile homes between Denmark and Jackson and two other persons were killed in an apartment complex in Jackson. In Jackson, countless buildings were destroyed, particularly in downtown Jackson. St. Luke Episcopal Church, one of the oldest churches in Tennessee built in 1844, was destroyed. The Carl Perkins Civic Center, Tennessee Supreme Court Building, the downtown Jackson Post Office and National Guard Armory were damaged. Also damaged was the Procter & Gamble factory where Pringles Potato Chips are made and a Coca-Cola bottling plant was also damaged. Denmark Elementary School and Jackson Middle School were destroyed and 24 other schools in the county were damaged. The tornado caused severe damage to the local power and water utilities across the county. One of eight stone balls that were set up to commemorate the eight fatalities from the Jackson tornado of January 17, 1999 was blown across a street. The tornado then produced substantial damage to the city of Jackson continued into Henderson county and moved through the city of Lexington. Thirty-six homes were destroyed and nearly 1,000 homes were damaged. Seven commercial buildings were destroyed and another 73 were damaged including the Everett Horn Library.

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

Kansas City metropolitan area tornadoes

Aftermath

Jackson—Lexington, Tennessee
FEMA Disaster Declarations
IDStateDeclaredAid approvedNotes
DR-1462KansasMay 5 [301]
DR-1463MissouriMay 5 [302]
DR-1464TennesseeMay 8 [303]
DR-1465OklahomaMay 10 [304]
DR-1466AlabamaMay 12 [305]
DR-1469IllinoisMay 15 [306]
DR-1470MississippiMay 23 [307]
President George W. Bush visiting Pierce City, Missouri following the tornado outbreak FEMA - 8096 - Photograph by Adam Dubrowa taken on 05-13-2003 in Missouri.jpg
President George W. Bush visiting Pierce City, Missouri following the tornado outbreak

In the aftermath of the May 4 tornadoes, Missouri governor Bob Holden petitioned the federal government to declare a federal disaster for 39 counties while Kansas governor Kathleen Sebelius issued disaster or emergency declarations for several counties—Cherokee, Crawford, Labette, Leavenworth, Neosho, and Wyandotte; [214] [308] U.S. President George W. Bush later issued federal disaster declarations for these states, authorizing the allocation of federal disaster funds through the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). [309] [310] FEMA director Michael D. Brown designated Michael J. Hall as the coordinator for federal relief efforts in response to the tornadoes. [310]

Visiting the Northmoor, Missouri, Holden remarked that the damage was "the worst I've seen from a tornado in several years," [217] later noting in during his visit of Pierce City that the May 4 storms were "the most devastating series of tornadoes we've ever had in the state of Missouri." [311] Emergency shelters were opened in Madison County, Tennessee as the county largely lost access to electricity and water following a May 4 tornado. [312] The American Red Cross of Central Oklahoma sent relief crews and emergency response trucks to Springfield, Missouri to deliver food and supplies. The Oklahoma City chapter of Feed the Children also dispatched supplies to Kansas City, Missouri. [313] The 203rd Engineer Battalion of the Missouri Army National Guard bound for deployment in the Iraq War aided relief efforts in Pierce City, Missouri. [314]

In 2004, The Storm Prediction Center and five National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices were awarded the Department of Commerce Gold Medal—the highest award issued by the department—for "providing life-saving services during a record outbreak of tornadoes during the period of May 4–6, 2003." [315]

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 A significant tornado is one that is rated F2 or higher on the Fujita scale. [1]
  2. The Storm Prediction Center used a three-tier scale in their convective outlooks to categorize the coverage and intensity of severe weather, with slight (SLGT) risk having the lowest coverage and severity, followed my moderate (MDT) and high (HIGH) with the highest coverage and severity. All risks imply that well-organized severe thunderstorms are anticipated. [9]

References

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  19. 1 2 "20030503's Storm Reports". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. May 3, 2003. Retrieved December 20, 2021.
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  29. Edwards, Roger; Naden, Richard (May 4, 2003). "May- 4-2003 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved December 20, 2021.
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  31. Evans, Jeffry A. (May 4, 2003). "Tornado Watch 231". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved December 20, 2021 via Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
  32. Evans, Jeffry A. (May 4, 2003). "Tornado Watch 232". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved December 21, 2021 via Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
  33. Evans, Jeffry A. (May 4, 2003). "Tornado Watch 233". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved December 21, 2021 via Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
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  37. Evans, Jeffry A. (May 4, 2003). "Tornado Watch 234". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved December 22, 2021 via Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
  38. Thompson, Rich (May 4, 2003). "Tornado Watch 239". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved December 22, 2021 via Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
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  42. SPC tornado watches with expiry times during the early morning of May 5:
    • Thompson, Rich (May 5, 2003). "Tornado Watch 240". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved December 22, 2021 via Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
    • Corfidi, Stephen F. (May 5, 2003). "Tornado Watch 243". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved December 22, 2021 via Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
    • Corfidi, Stephen F. (May 5, 2003). "Tornado Watch 244". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved December 22, 2021 via Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
    • Corfidi, Stephen F. (May 5, 2003). "Tornado Watch 245". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved December 22, 2021 via Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
    • Corfidi, Stephen F. (May 5, 2003). "Tornado Watch 247". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved December 22, 2021 via Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
  43. Goss, Steve (May 5, 2003). "Mesoscale Discussion 0754". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved December 22, 2021 via Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
  44. Goss, Steve (May 5, 2003). "Mesoscale Discussion 0757". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved December 22, 2021 via Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
  45. Corfidi, Stephen F. (May 4, 2003). "May- 4-2003 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved December 22, 2021.
  46. 1 2 3 McCarthy, Daniel (May 5, 2003). "May- 5-2003 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved December 22, 2021.
  47. 1 2 Imy, David A. (May 5, 2003). "May- 5-2003 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved December 23, 2021.
  48. Edwards, Roger (May 5, 2003). "May- 5-2003 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved December 23, 2021.
  49. 1 2 "20030505's Storm Reports". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. May 3, 2003. Retrieved December 20, 2021.
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  53. Jewell, Ryan (May 5, 2003). "Mesoscale Discussion 0758". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved December 23, 2021 via Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
  54. "Event Report for F1 Tornado in Oakland County, Michigan". Storm Events Database. Asheville, North Carolina: National Centers for Environmental Information. Retrieved January 4, 2022.
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  57. Kerr, Brynn W. (May 5, 2003). "Mesoscale Discussion 0775". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved December 23, 2021 via Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
  58. Kerr, Brynn W. (May 5, 2003). "Mesoscale Discussion 0777". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved December 23, 2021 via Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
  59. Mead, Corey (May 6, 2003). "May- 5-2003 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved December 23, 2021.
  60. Mead, Corey; Jewell, Ryan (May 6, 2003). "May- 5-2003 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved December 23, 2021.
  61. Corfidi, Stephen A. (May 6, 2003). "Tornado Watch 261". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved December 23, 2021 via Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
  62. Corfidi, Stephen A. (May 6, 2003). "Tornado Watch 262". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved December 23, 2021 via Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
  63. Edwards, Roger (May 6, 2003). "Mesoscale Discussion 0780". Norman, Oklahoma: Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved December 23, 2021 via Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
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Overall
April 30 – May 3
May 4–5
May 6–7
May 8
May 9
May 10
May 11