2019 North Carolina's 3rd congressional district special election

Last updated

2019 North Carolina's 3rd congressional district special election
Flag of North Carolina.svg
  2018 September 10, 2019 2020  

North Carolina's 3rd congressional district
  Greg Murphy NC.jpeg Allen M. Thomas.jpg
Nominee Greg Murphy Allen M. Thomas
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote70,40742,738
Percentage61.74%37.47%

North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District Election Map Simple.svg
Results by county
Murphy:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Thomas:     50–60%

U.S. Representative before election

Vacant
(Walter B. Jones Jr. prior to his death on February 10, 2019)
Republican

Contents

Elected U.S. Representative

Greg Murphy
Republican

A special election was held on September 10, 2019, to fill the vacancy in North Carolina's 3rd congressional district in the United States House of Representatives for the remainder of the 116th United States Congress. Walter B. Jones Jr., the incumbent representative, died on February 10, 2019. [1]

Parties held primaries to decide their nominees. In order to win a party nomination outright, under current state law, a candidate must exceed 30% of the vote to avoid a runoff (presuming that the second-place finisher calls for that runoff). There must be 30 days of absentee voting prior to each election, according to state law. [2] Filing began on March 4 and ended March 8, as set by Governor Roy Cooper. Twenty-six candidates filed with the State Board of Elections by the filing deadline: 17 Republicans, 6 Democrats, 2 Libertarians, and 1 Constitution Party candidate. [3] All candidates filed are affiliated with a political party. [4] Five candidates advanced after the first primary elections: two Republicans, one Democrat, one Libertarian, and one Constitution Party candidate.

Cooper set the primary date of April 30, in which the Democrats selected Allen M. Thomas, Libertarians selected Tim Harris, and in the Constitution Party primary businessman Greg Holt won by default, but no Republican achieved 30% of the vote. Voting for the Republican primary runoff occurred on Tuesday, July 9, between two candidates that are both physicians, Greg Murphy and Joan Perry. [5] Approximately 70 minutes after polls closed, Murphy was declared the winner by the Associated Press.

The general election was held on September 10, 2019. Murphy won the seat. [6] [7]

With the decision by the State Board of Elections to hold a new election to redo the 2018 U.S. House election in North Carolina's 9th district, this became one of two congressional district special elections in North Carolina in 2019, the other being the 9th district's special election held on the same day. This was the first time two U.S. House special elections were held in the same state on the same day (not on Election Day) since the May 3, 2008, elections in Louisiana's 1st district and 6th district. [8]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in runoff

  • Joan Perry, pediatrician [11]

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Jeff Moore

Politicians

Greg Murphy

Organizations

  • Women for Trump [26]

Politicians

Joan Perry

Organizations

Politicians

First round

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Celeste
Cairns
Phil
Law
Jeff
Moore
Greg
Murphy
Joan
Perry
Eric
Rouse
Phil
Shepard
Michael
Speciale
OtherUndecided
Atlantic Media & Research (R) [39] [upper-alpha 1] April 24–27, 2019253± 6.1%2%3%6%14%9%4%7%6%5% [lower-alpha 1] 44%

Results

Results by county:
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Murphy
10-20%
30-40%
60-70%
Perry
10-20%
30-40%
50-60%
Shepard
50-60%
Speciale
10-20%
20-30%
40-50%
Rouse
10-20%
20-30%
Beaumont
10-20%
Payment
20-30% 2019 North Carolina's 3rd congressional district Republican special primary election results by county map.svg
Results by county:
  Murphy
  •   10–20%
  •   30–40%
  •   60–70%
  Perry
  •   10–20%
  •   30–40%
  •   50–60%
  Shepard
  •   50–60%
  Speciale
  •   10–20%
  •   20–30%
  •   40–50%
  Rouse
  •   10–20%
  •   20–30%
  Beaumont
  •   10–20%
  Payment
  •   20–30%
Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Greg Murphy 9,530 22.51
Republican Joan Perry 6,536 15.44
Republican Phil Shepard5,10112.05
Republican Michael Speciale4,0229.50
Republican Phil Law3,6908.72
Republican Eric Rouse3,2587.70
Republican Jeff Moore2,2805.39
Republican Francis De Luca1,6703.95
Republican Celeste Cairns1,4673.47
Republican Chimer Davis Clark Jr.1,0922.58
Republican Michele Nix9152.16
Republican Graham Boyd8972.12
Republican Paul Beaumont8051.90
Republican Mike Payment5371.27
Republican Don Cox2510.59
Republican Kevin Baiko1710.40
Republican Gary Ceres1080.26
Total votes42,330 100.0

Runoff

Results

Results by county:
Murphy
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90%
Perry
50-60%
70-80% 2019 North Carolina's 3rd congressional district Republican special primary runoff election results by county map.svg
Results by county:
  Murphy
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Perry
  •   50–60%
  •   70–80%
Republican primary runoff results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Greg Murphy 21,444 59.7
Republican Joan Perry14,47240.3
Total votes35,916 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated

Declined

  • Ollie Nelson, retired U.S. Marine, educator, and pastor [23]
  • George Parrott, businessman [45]
  • Scott Thomas, District Attorney for North Carolina's 4th prosecutorial district [46]

Endorsements

Richard Bew

Politicians

Individuals

Organizations

Allen M. Thomas

Politicians

Results

Results by county:
Thomas
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
Bew
40-50%
50-60%
Johnson
30-40% 2019 North Carolina's 3rd congressional district Democratic special primary election results by county map.svg
Results by county:
  Thomas
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Bew
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Johnson
  •   30–40%
Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Allen M. Thomas 12,933 49.96
Democratic Richard Bew6,53225.23
Democratic Dana Outlaw3,26812.63
Democratic Ike Johnson1,7746.85
Democratic Gregory Humphrey6952.68
Democratic Ernest T. Reeves6832.64
Total votes25,885 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Shannon Bray, U.S. Navy veteran, author, cybersecurity expert [53]
  • Tim Harris, U.S. Marine Corps veteran, IT engineer, candidate for North Carolina Senate for the 2nd district in 2018 [54]

Results

Libertarian primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Tim Harris 75 55.97
Libertarian Shannon Bray5944.03
Total votes134 100.0

Constitution primary

Candidates

Nominee (by default)

  • Greg Holt, businessman [12]

General election

During the early voting period for this election, Hurricane Dorian battered the eastern coast of the United States, necessitating early voting to be halted in several counties on the Outer Banks until the storm had passed. This also happened in the election for North Carolina's 9th congressional district.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [55] Safe RAugust 26, 2019
Inside Elections [56] Safe RSeptember 4, 2019
Sabato's Crystal Ball [57] Likely RSeptember 5, 2019

Endorsements

Greg Murphy (R)

Federal politicians

Individuals

Organizations

Allen M. Thomas (D)

Federal politicians

Statewide, and local politicians

Organizations

Individuals

  • MrBeast American YouTuber and philanthropist

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Greg
Murphy (R)
Allen M.
Thomas (D)
OtherUndecided
GAJ Solutions (R) [73] [upper-alpha 2] August 26–28, 2019500± 4.0%51%40%3% [lower-alpha 2] 6%
Hypothetical polling

with generic Republican and generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Strategic Partners Solutions [74] May 18–19, 2019400± 4.9%49%41%

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of August 21, 2019
Candidate (party)Total receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on hand
Greg Murphy (R)$901,590.47$803,487.06$98,103.41
Allen M. Thomas (D)$564,575.49$476,025.52$88,549.97
Source: Federal Election Commission [75]

Results

2019 North Carolina's 3rd congressional district special election [76]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Greg Murphy 70,407 61.74 −38.26
Democratic Allen M. Thomas42,73837.47N/A
Constitution Greg Holt5070.44N/A
Libertarian Tim Harris3940.35N/A
Total votes'114,046''100'N/A
Republican hold

Despite the clear victory, 61.7% is the lowest Republican vote share in this district since 2012.

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

  1. Open-ended poll sponsored a "private client", likely Conservatives for a Better North Carolina, a super PAC supporting Phil Shepard
  2. Poll conducted for RRH

Additional candidates

  1. Paul Beaumont, Chimer Clark, Don Cox, and Francis De Luca with 1%; Kevin Baiko, Gary Ceres, Michele Nix, and Mike Payment with 0%
  2. Harris (L) with 2% and Holt (C) with 1%

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  62. Donald Trump Jr. "Donald Trump Jr. on Twitter". Twitter.
  63. Kayleigh McEnany. "Kayleigh McEnany on Twitter". Twitter.
  64. National Right to Life. "National Right to Life is pleased to endorse @DrGregMurphy1 for North Carolina's 3rd District special election on September 10. Be sure to get out there and #VoteProLife! @NCRTL". Twitter.
  65. "NFIB Endorses Greg Murphy in NC-03 Special Election". National Federation of Independent Business . August 13, 2019. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
  66. Alma Adams. "Alma Adams on Twitter". Twitter.
  67. 1 2 3 4 "Endorsements". Allen Thomas For Congress. July 22, 2019. Archived from the original on July 22, 2019. Retrieved July 22, 2019.
  68. Julian Castro. "Julian Castro on Twitter". Twitter.
  69. "Endorsements". Dan McCready For Congress. March 27, 2019. Archived from the original on July 25, 2019. Retrieved July 22, 2019.
  70. Erica D. Smith. "Erica D. Smith on Twitter". Twitter.
  71. NC, Equality (May 14, 2019). "ENC is proud to endorse @AllenThomas4ENC for North Carolina's Third Congressional District". @equalitync. Twitter.
  72. "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". Sierra Club. March 19, 2021.
  73. GAJ Solutions (R)
  74. Strategic Partners Solutions
  75. "2020 Election United States House - North Carolina - District 03". FEC.gov.
  76. "US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES DISTRICT 03 - REP (VOTE FOR 1)". NC State Board of Elections. Retrieved September 20, 2019.

Official campaign websites