Climate commitment

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The ongoing buildup of long-lived greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere, whose warming influence has nearly doubled since 1979, shows mankind's influence on the global climate. 1979- Radiative forcing - climate change - global warming - EPA NOAA.svg
The ongoing buildup of long-lived greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere, whose warming influence has nearly doubled since 1979, shows mankind's influence on the global climate.

Climate commitment describes the fact that Earth's climate reacts with a delay to influencing factors ("climate forcings") such as the growth and the greater presence of greenhouse gases. Climate commitment studies attempt to assess the amount of future global warming that is "committed" under the assumption of some constant or some evolving level of forcing. The constant level often used for illustrative purposes is that due to CO2 doubling or quadrupling relative to the pre-industrial level; or the present level of forcing.

Contents

Definition

Climate commitment is the "unavoidable future climate change resulting from inertia in the geophysical and socio-economic systems". [4] Different types of climate change commitment are discussed in the literature. These include the "constant composition commitment"; the "constant emissions commitment" and the "zero emissions commitment". [4] :2222

Basic idea

The accumulation of excess heat in the ocean, at ever greater depths, measures global warming that has already become "irreversible" in the near term Earth's Heat Accumulation.png
The accumulation of excess heat in the ocean, at ever greater depths, measures global warming that has already become "irreversible" in the near term

If a perturbation — such as an increase in greenhouse gases or solar activity — is applied to Earth's climate system the response will not be immediate, principally because of the large heat capacity and thermal inertia of the oceans. [6]

As an analogue, consider the heating of a thin metal plate (by the sun or by a flame): the plate will warm relatively quickly. If a thick metal block is heated instead, it will take much longer for the entire block to reach equilibrium with the imposed heating because of its higher heat capacity.

Land only stores heat in the top few meters. Ocean water, by contrast, can move vertically and store heat within the ocean's depth (convection). This is why the land surface is observed to warm more than the oceans. It also explains the large difference in global surface temperature response between

The "commitment" can apply to variables other than temperature: because of the long mixing time for heat into the deep ocean, a given surface warming commits to centuries of sea level rise from thermal expansion of the ocean. Also once a certain threshold is crossed, it is likely that a slow melting of the Greenland ice sheet will commit us to a sea level rise of 5m over millennia.[ citation needed ]

Models

Recent models forecast that even in the unlikely event of greenhouse gases stabilizing at present levels, the Earth would warm by an additional 0.5°C by 2100, a similar rise in temperature to that seen during the 20th century. In 2050, as much as 64% of that commitment would be due to past natural forcings. Over time, their contribution compared to the human influence will diminish. Overall, the warming commitment at 2005 greenhouse gas levels could exceed 1°C. [9] As ocean waters expand in response to this warming, global sea levels would mount by about 10 centimeters during that time. These models do not take into account ice cap and glacier melting; including those climate feedback effects would give a 1–1.5°C estimated temperature increase. [10]

History

The concept has been discussed as far back as 1995 in the IPCC TAR and in the SAR.

Misuse

Climate commitment studies span a range of emissions scenarios which are intimately tied to past, present and future human choices. The "commitment" concept is misused when worst cases are asserted to be inevitable regardless of social agency. Models rather indicate that additional surface warming can be halted almost simultaneous with rapid emissions reductions. [11]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Causes of climate change</span> Effort to scientifically ascertain mechanisms responsible for recent global warming

The scientific community has been investigating the causes of climate change for decades. After thousands of studies, it came to a consensus, where it is "unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land since pre-industrial times." This consensus is supported by around 200 scientific organizations worldwide, The dominant role in this climate change has been played by the direct emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels. Indirect CO2 emissions from land use change, and the emissions of methane, nitrous oxide and other greenhouse gases play major supporting roles.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Carbon sink</span> Reservoir absorbing more carbon from, than emitting to, the air

A carbon sink is a natural or artificial carbon sequestration process that "removes a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas from the atmosphere". These sinks form an important part of the natural carbon cycle. An overarching term is carbon pool, which is all the places where carbon on Earth can be, i.e. the atmosphere, oceans, soil, florae, fossil fuel reservoirs and so forth. A carbon sink is a type of carbon pool that has the capability to take up more carbon from the atmosphere than it releases.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Greenhouse effect</span> Atmospheric phenomenon causing planetary warming

The greenhouse effect occurs when greenhouse gases in a planet's atmosphere insulate the planet from losing heat to space, raising its surface temperature. Surface heating can happen from an internal heat source or come from an external source, such as its host star. In the case of Earth, the Sun emits shortwave radiation (sunlight) that passes through greenhouse gases to heat the Earth's surface. In response, the Earth's surface emits longwave radiation that is mostly absorbed by greenhouse gases. The absorption of longwave radiation prevents it from reaching space, reducing the rate at which the Earth can cool off.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Global warming potential</span> Potential heat absorbed by a greenhouse gas

Global warming potential (GWP) is a measure of how much heat a greenhouse gas traps in the atmosphere over a specific time period, relative to carbon dioxide (CO2). It is expressed as a multiple of warming caused by the same mass of carbon dioxide (CO2). Therefore, by definition CO2 has a GWP of 1. For other gases it depends on how strongly the gas absorbs thermal radiation, how quickly the gas leaves the atmosphere, and the time frame considered.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate variability and change</span> Change in the statistical distribution of climate elements for an extended period

Climate variability includes all the variations in the climate that last longer than individual weather events, whereas the term climate change only refers to those variations that persist for a longer period of time, typically decades or more. Climate change may refer to any time in Earth's history, but the term is now commonly used to describe contemporary climate change, often popularly referred to as global warming. Since the Industrial Revolution, the climate has increasingly been affected by human activities.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Radiative forcing</span> Concept for changes to the energy flows through a planetary atmosphere

Radiative forcing is a concept used to quantify a change to the balance of energy flowing through a planetary atmosphere. Various factors contribute to this change in energy balance, such as concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and changes in surface albedo and solar irradiance. In more technical terms, it is defined as "the change in the net, downward minus upward, radiative flux due to a change in an external driver of climate change." These external drivers are distinguished from feedbacks and variability that are internal to the climate system, and that further influence the direction and magnitude of imbalance. Radiative forcing on Earth is meaningfully evaluated at the tropopause and at the top of the stratosphere. It is quantified in units of watts per square meter, and often summarized as an average over the total surface area of the globe.

This glossary of climate change is a list of definitions of terms and concepts relevant to climate change, global warming, and related topics.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Earth's energy budget</span> Concept for energy flows to and from Earth

Earth's energy budget is the balance between the energy that Earth receives from the Sun and the energy the Earth loses back into outer space. Smaller energy sources, such as Earth's internal heat, are taken into consideration, but make a tiny contribution compared to solar energy. The energy budget also takes into account how energy moves through the climate system. The Sun heats the equatorial tropics more than the polar regions. Therefore, the amount of solar irradiance received by a certain region is unevenly distributed. As the energy seeks equilibrium across the planet, it drives interactions in Earth's climate system, i.e., Earth's water, ice, atmosphere, rocky crust, and all living things. The result is Earth's climate.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate sensitivity</span> Concept in climate science

Climate sensitivity is a key measure in climate science and describes how much Earth's surface will warm for a doubling in the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. Its formal definition is: "The change in the surface temperature in response to a change in the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration or other radiative forcing." This concept helps scientists understand the extent and magnitude of the effects of climate change.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Outgoing longwave radiation</span> Energy transfer mechanism which enables planetary cooling

In climate science, longwave radiation (LWR) is electromagnetic thermal radiation emitted by Earth's surface, atmosphere, and clouds. It is also referred to as terrestrial radiation. This radiation is in the infrared portion of the spectrum, but is distinct from the shortwave (SW) near-infrared radiation found in sunlight.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere</span> Atmospheric constituent and greenhouse gas

In Earth's atmosphere, carbon dioxide is a trace gas that plays an integral part in the greenhouse effect, carbon cycle, photosynthesis and oceanic carbon cycle. It is one of three main greenhouse gases in the atmosphere of Earth. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached 427 ppm (0.0427%) on a molar basis in 2024, representing 3341 gigatonnes of CO2. This is an increase of 50% since the start of the Industrial Revolution, up from 280 ppm during the 10,000 years prior to the mid-18th century. The increase is due to human activity.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ocean heat content</span> Energy stored by oceans

Ocean heat content (OHC) or ocean heat uptake (OHU) is the energy absorbed and stored by oceans. To calculate the ocean heat content, it is necessary to measure ocean temperature at many different locations and depths. Integrating the areal density of a change in enthalpic energy over an ocean basin or entire ocean gives the total ocean heat uptake. Between 1971 and 2018, the rise in ocean heat content accounted for over 90% of Earth's excess energy from global heating. The main driver of this increase was caused by humans via their rising greenhouse gas emissions. By 2020, about one third of the added energy had propagated to depths below 700 meters.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Greenhouse gas</span> Gas in an atmosphere with certain absorption characteristics

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the gases in the atmosphere that raise the surface temperature of planets such as the Earth. What distinguishes them from other gases is that they absorb the wavelengths of radiation that a planet emits, resulting in the greenhouse effect. The Earth is warmed by sunlight, causing its surface to radiate heat, which is then mostly absorbed by greenhouse gases. Without greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the average temperature of Earth's surface would be about −18 °C (0 °F), rather than the present average of 15 °C (59 °F).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Atmospheric methane</span> Methane in Earths atmosphere

Atmospheric methane is the methane present in Earth's atmosphere. The concentration of atmospheric methane is increasing due to methane emissions, and is causing climate change. Methane is one of the most potent greenhouse gases. Methane's radiative forcing (RF) of climate is direct, and it is the second largest contributor to human-caused climate forcing in the historical period. Methane is a major source of water vapour in the stratosphere through oxidation; and water vapour adds about 15% to methane's radiative forcing effect. The global warming potential (GWP) for methane is about 84 in terms of its impact over a 20-year timeframe, and 28 in terms of its impact over a 100-year timeframe.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">History of climate change science</span> Aspect of the history of science

The history of the scientific discovery of climate change began in the early 19th century when ice ages and other natural changes in paleoclimate were first suspected and the natural greenhouse effect was first identified. In the late 19th century, scientists first argued that human emissions of greenhouse gases could change Earth's energy balance and climate. The existence of the greenhouse effect, while not named as such, was proposed as early as 1824 by Joseph Fourier. The argument and the evidence were further strengthened by Claude Pouillet in 1827 and 1838. In 1856 Eunice Newton Foote demonstrated that the warming effect of the sun is greater for air with water vapour than for dry air, and the effect is even greater with carbon dioxide.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change feedbacks</span> Feedback related to climate change

Climate change feedbacks are natural processes that impact how much global temperatures will increase for a given amount of greenhouse gas emissions. Positive feedbacks amplify global warming while negative feedbacks diminish it. Feedbacks influence both the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the amount of temperature change that happens in response. While emissions are the forcing that causes climate change, feedbacks combine to control climate sensitivity to that forcing.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ocean temperature</span> Physical quantity of hot and cold in ocean water

The ocean temperature plays a crucial role in the global climate system, ocean currents and for marine habitats. It varies depending on depth, geographical location and season. Not only does the temperature differ in seawater, so does the salinity. Warm surface water is generally saltier than the cooler deep or polar waters. In polar regions, the upper layers of ocean water are cold and fresh. Deep ocean water is cold, salty water found deep below the surface of Earth's oceans. This water has a uniform temperature of around 0-3 °C. The ocean temperature also depends on the amount of solar radiation falling on its surface. In the tropics, with the Sun nearly overhead, the temperature of the surface layers can rise to over 30 °C (86 °F). Near the poles the temperature in equilibrium with the sea ice is about −2 °C (28 °F).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate inertia</span> Slow response of complex feedback systems

Climate inertia or climate change inertia is the phenomenon by which a planet's climate system shows a resistance or slowness to deviate away from a given dynamic state. It can accompany stability and other effects of feedback within complex systems, and includes the inertia exhibited by physical movements of matter and exchanges of energy. The term is a colloquialism used to encompass and loosely describe a set of interactions that extend the timescales around climate sensitivity. Inertia has been associated with the drivers of, and the responses to, climate change.

This article documents events, research findings, scientific and technological advances, and human actions to measure, predict, mitigate, and adapt to the effects of global warming and climate change—during the year 2021.

This article documents events, research findings, scientific and technological advances, and human actions to measure, predict, mitigate, and adapt to the effects of global warming and climate change—during the year 2019.

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