List of regions by past GDP (PPP)

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These are lists of regions and countries by their estimated real gross domestic product (GDP) in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), the value of all final goods and services produced within a country/region in a given year. GDP dollar (international dollar) estimates here are derived from PPP estimates.

Contents

Methodology

In the absence of sufficient data for nearly all economies until well into the 19th century, past GDP cannot be calculated, but at best only roughly estimated. In a first step, economic historians try to reconstruct the GDP per capita for a given political or geographical entity from the meagre evidence. This value is then multiplied by estimated population size, another determinant for which as a rule only little ancient data is available.

A key notion in the whole process is that of subsistence, the income level which is necessary for sustaining one's life. Since pre-modern societies, by modern standards, were characterized by a very low degree of urbanization and a large majority of people working in the agricultural sector, economic historians prefer to express income in cereal units. To achieve comparability over space and time, these numbers are then converted into monetary units such as International Dollars, a third step which leaves a relatively wide margin of interpretation.

The formula thus is: GDP (PPP) = GDP per capita (PPP) x population size

It should be stressed that, historically speaking, population size is the far more important multiplier in the equation. This is because, in contrast to industrial economies, the average income ceiling of premodern agrarian societies was quite low everywhere, possibly not higher than twice the subsistence level. [1] Therefore, the total GDP as given below primarily reflects the respective historical population size, and is much less indicative of contemporary living standards than, for example, estimations of past GDP per capita are.

According to the 20th-century macroeconomist Paul Bairoch, a pioneer in historical economic analysis,

it is obvious that by itself the volume of total GNP has no important significance, and that the volume of GNP is not by itself the expression of the economic strength of a nation.

Rather, Bairoch advocates a formula combining GNP per capita and total GNP to give a better measure of the economic performance of national economies. [2]

World

1750–1990 (Bairoch)

In his 1995 book Economics and World History, economic historian Paul Bairoch gave the following estimates in terms of 1960 US dollars, for GNP from 1750 to 1990, comparing what are today the Third World (Asia, Africa, Latin America) and the First World (Western Europe, Northern America, Japan) [3]

GNP (PPP) in billions of US dollars
Year1960 dollars1990 dollars
Third World [A] First World [B] Third World [A] First World [B]
175011235495155
180013747605208
183015067662296
1860159118702521
19001842978131,312
19132174309581,899
19282525681,1132,508
19382936781,2942,994
19503388891,4933,926
19708102,4503,57710,820
19801,2803,4005,65315,015
19901,7304,3507,64019,210

A ^ Third World refers to Asia (excluding Japan), Africa, and Latin America.

B ^ First World refers to Europe, Russia, the United States, Canada, and Japan.

1–2008 (Maddison)

The following estimates are taken exclusively from the 2007 monograph Contours of the World Economy, 1–2030 AD by the British economist Angus Maddison. [4]

When graphed, one can see that South Asia was the world's largest economy from year 1 to year 1500, when it lost the position to China. South Asia again regained the pole position in the year 1700 before losing it to China in year 1820. China subsequently lost to the industrialising Western Europe, in the middle of the 19th century. Cumulatively from the data, South Asia maintained the world's largest economy for a large majority of the past two millennia over 1500 years (1-1500, 1700), and China has maintained it for roughly 300 years in the past two millennia (1500-1700, 1820-1890).

GDP (PPP) in millions of 1990 International Dollars
Country / Region110001500160017001820187019131950197319892008
Austria2132981,4142,0932,4834,1048,41923,45125,70285,227124,791198,004
Belgium1351701,2251,5612,2884,52913,71632,34747,190118,516166,396246,103
Denmark721444435697271,4713,78211,67029,65470,03293,728135,037
Finland 8161362152559131,9996,38917,05151,72484,092127,676
France2,3662,76310,91215,55919,53935,46872,100144,489220,492683,9651,000,2861,423,562
Germany1,2251,4358,25612,65613,65026,81972,149237,332265,354944,7551,302,2121,713,405
Italy 6,4752,25011,55014,41014,63022,53541,81495,487164,957582,713906,0531,157,636
Netherlands 851287232,0724,0474,2889,95224,95560,642175,791247,906411,055
Norway40801832663617772,3605,98817,72844,85276,733132,365
Sweden801603826261,2313,0986,92717,40347,269109,794149,415193,352
Switzerland1281234117501,0682,1655,58116,48342,545117,251141,599190,328
UK3208002,8156,00710,70936,232100,180224,618347,850675,941940,9081,446,959
12 country total11,1468,36638,45056,78470,988142,399338,979840,6121,286,4343,660,5615,235,1157,402,911
Portugal 1802556068141,6383,0434,2197,46717,61563,397102,922154,132
Spain1,8671,8004,4957,0297,48112,29919,55641,65361,429266,896454,166797,927
Other1,2405046329751,1062,1104,71212,47830,600105,910169,648343,059
Total Western Europe 14,43310,92544,18365,60281,213159,851367,466902,2101,396,0784,096,7645,961,8518,698,029
Eastern Europe 1,9562,6006,6969,28911,39324,90650,163134,793185,023550,756718,0391,030,628
Former USSR 1,5602,8408,45811,42616,19637,67883,646232,351510,2431,513,0702,037,2532,242,206
United States27252080060052712,54898,374517,3831,455,9163,536,6225,703,5219,485,136
Other Western offshoots17622832032030695113,11965,558179,574521,667856,8471,448,542
Total Western offshoots4487481,12092083313,499111,493582,9411,635,4904,058,2896,560,36810,933,678
Mexico8801,8003,1881,1342,5585,0006,21425,92167,368279,302491,767877,312
Other Latin America 1,3602,7604,1002,6293,7889,92121,09794,875347,9601,110,1581,735,9193,168,621
Total Latin America2,2404,5607,2883,7636,34614,92127,311120,796415,3281,389,4602,227,6864,045,933
Japan1,2003,1887,7009,62015,39020,73925,39371,653160,9661,242,9322,208,8582,904,141
China26,82026,55061,80096,00082,800228,600189,740241,431244,985739,4142,051,8138,908,894
India(The Subcontinent) [A] 33,75033,75060,50074,25090,750111,417134,882204,242222,222494,8321,043,9123,415,183
Other east Asia4,8458,96820,82224,58228,44036,45153,155122,874256,938829,0232,021,5285,154,979
West Asia 10,12012,41510,49512,63712,29115,27022,46840,588106,283548,120855,1301,905,346
Total Asia (excl. Japan)75,53581,683153,617207,469214,281391,738400,245609,135830,4282,621,6245,972,38319,384,402
Africa 8,03013,83519,38323,47325,77631,26645,23479,486203,131549,993889,9221,734,918
World 105,402120,379248,445331,562371,428694,5981,110,9512,733,3655,331,68916,022,88826,576,35950,973,935
Country / Region110001500160017001820187019131950197319892008

A ^ From 1 AD to 1913 AD, Indian Subcontinent includes modern Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. From 1950 onwards, India refers only to the modern Republic of India.

Maddison' assumptions have been both admired and criticized by academics and journalists. By Bryan Haig, who has characterized Maddison's figures for 19th century Australia as "inaccurate and irrelevant", [5] by W. W. Rostow, according to whom "this excessive macroeconomic bias also causes him (Maddison) to mis-date, in my view, the beginning of what he calls the capitalist era at 1820 rather than, say, the mid-1780s." [6]

W. J. MacPherson has described Maddison's work on early medieval India of using "dubious comparative data." [7] Maddison's estimates have also been critically reviewed and revised by the Italian economists Giovanni Federico [8] and Elio Lo Cascio/Paolo Malanima (see below). [9]

However, economist and journalist Evan Davis has praised Maddison's research by citing it as a "fantastic publication" and that it was "based on the detailed scholarship of the world expert on historical economic data Angus Maddison." He also added that "One shouldn't read the book in the belief the statistics are accurate to 12 decimal places." [10]

Europe

1830–1938 (Bairoch)

The following estimates were made by the economic historian Paul Bairoch. [11] Contrary to most other estimates on this page, the GNP (at market prices) is given here in 1960 US dollars. Unlike Maddison, Bairoch allows for the fluctuation of borders, basing his estimates mostly on the historical boundaries at the given points in time. [12]

GNP (at market prices) in millions of 1960 US dollars
Country / Region183018401850186018701880189019001910191319251938
Austria––––––––––4,3144,320
Austria-Hungary 7,2108,3159,1909,99611,38012,29715,38019,40023,97026,050––
Baltic countries ––––––––––2,2982,760
Belgium1,0981,3971,8092,3022,8823,2563,8044,8006,3086,7947,6588,501
Bulgaria –––5886166118089701,1651,2601,6132,628
Czechoslovakia ––––––––––6,8228,050
Denmark2562923614766127881,0951,5442,0312,4212,8932,893
Finland 2562953704205506708601,1101,3951,6701,9103,339
France8,58210,33511,87013,32616,80017,38119,75823,50026,86927,40136,26239,284
Germany7,2358,32010,39512,77116,69719,99326,45435,80045,52349,76045,00277,178
Greece–2002202503654406407809101,5402,3404,200
Hungary––––––––––3,0254,137
Ireland––––––––––1,8621,907
Italy7,5708,9518,66610,46611,27311,74512,43514,82015,59817,62419,51024,701
Netherlands 9131,1051,3181,5021,8232,1882,6603,1644,1504,6606,6967,987
Norway3163784906427288861,0411,2861,6011,8342,3703,812
Poland ––––––––––7,32512,885
Portugal 8609459851,1001,1751,2701,3601,5501,7101,8002,0462,634
Romania ––7608369501,1001,3501,7002,1252,4505,1236,780
Russia/USSR 10,55011,20012,70014,40022,92023,25021,18032,00043,83052,42032,60075,964
Serbia –––320345382432560700725––
Spain3,6004,1504,7005,4005,3005,4005,6756,5007,3337,4509,4988,511
Sweden5576177298601,0251,3851,7002,3583,2613,8244,6276,908
Switzerland5807009301,2001,4601,9202,1002,5993,3553,7004,3005,063
United Kingdom8,24510,43112,59116,07219,62823,55129,44136,27340,62344,07443,70056,103
Yugoslavia ––––––––––3,8705,221
Europe 58,15266,99777,93791,073114,966126,975146,723188,534231,550256,845257,434376,947
Western Europe [12] 38,910––63,670–––126,900-163,780179,830231,560
Eastern Europe [12] 19,240––27,400–––61,640–93,06077,600145,390
Country / Region183018401850186018701880189019001910191319251938

1500–1870 (Lo Cascio/Malanima)

The following estimates are taken from a revision of Angus Maddison's numbers for the whole of Europe by the Italian economists Elio Lo Cascio and Paolo Malanima. [13] According to their calculations, the basic level of European GDP (PPP) was historically higher, but its increase was less pronounced.

YearGDP (PPP) in millions of 1990 International Dollars
1500111,680
1600133,760
1700159,440
1750205,530
1800253,900
1870619,970

Empires

Indian empires (AD 1–1947)

Angus Maddison's below GDP estimates for Indian subcontinent (including modern Pakistan and Bangladesh) refer to the following empires: [4]

^ At year 1, year 1000, year 1500 and till the start of British colonisation in India in 17th century, India's GDP always varied between ~22 - 33% world's total GDP and was the largest economy in the world from year 1 until year 1500, [4] which dropped to 2% by Independence of India in 1947. [14] At the same time, the Britain's share of the world economy rose from 2.9% in 1700 up to 9% in 1870 alone. [15] [16] [17]

GDP in 2023 international dollars [18]
YearIndian subcontinentPer CapitaAvg GDP growth rateGDP (% World)PopulationPopulation (% World)
133,750,000,000450–33.070,000,00032.5
100033,750,000,0004500.0%28.072,500,00028
150060,500,000,0005500.117%24.479,000,00025.1
160074,250,000,0005500.205%22.4100,000,00024.3
170090,750,000,0005500.201%24.4165,000,00027.36
1820111,417,000,0005330.171%16209,000,00020.1
1870134,882,000,0005330.975%12.1253,000,00019.9
1913204,242,000,0005990.965%7.5303,700,00017
195030,600,000,0006190.23%4.2359,000,00014.2

Chinese empires

Angus Maddison's below GDP estimates for China refer to the following empires: [4]

GDP in 2023 international dollars
YearChinese regionper capitaAvg GDP growth rateGDP (% World)PopulationPopulation (% World)Period
160096,000,000,0006000.44%28.95160,000,00028.77Ming dynasty
170082,800,000,000600-0.15%22.29138,000,00022.87 Qing dynasty
1820228,600,000,0006000.85%32.91381,000,00036.57
1870189,740,000,000530-0.37%17.08358,000,00028.06
1913241,431,000,0005520.56%8.83437,140,00024.38 Republic of China

British Empire and India

Goedele De Keersmaeker estimated the GDP of the British Empire using Angus Maddison's data. Keersmaeker estimated that the British Empire's share of world GDP was 24.28% in 1870 and 19.7% in 1913. The empire's largest economy in 1870 was British India with a 12.15% share of world GDP, followed by the United Kingdom with a 9.03% share. The empire's largest economy in 1913 was the United Kingdom with an 8.22% share of world GDP, followed by British India with a 7.47% share. [19]

Roman Empire

Much work in estimating past GDP has been done in the study of the Roman economy, following the pioneering studies by Keith Hopkins (1980) and Raymond Goldsmith (1984). [20] The estimates by Peter Temin, Angus Maddison, Branko Milanović and Peter Fibiger Bang follow the basic method established by Goldsmith, varying mainly only in their set of initial numbers; these are then stepped up to estimations of the expenditure checked by those on the income side. Walter Scheidel/Steven Friesen determine GDP on the relationship between certain significant economic indicators which were historically found to be plausible; two independent control assumptions provide the upper and lower limit of the probable size of the Roman GDP. [21]

B ^ Decimal fractions rounded to the nearest tenth. Italic numbers not directly given by the authors; they are obtained by multiplying the respective value of GDP per capita by estimated population size.

The GDP per capita of the Byzantine Empire, the continuation of the Roman Empire in the east, has been estimated by the World Bank economist Branko Milanović to range between $680 and 770 (in 1990 International Dollars) at its peak around 1000 AD, that is the reign of Basil II. [22] The Byzantine population size at the time is estimated to have been 12 to 18 million. [23] This would yield a total GDP somewhere between $8,160 and 13,860 million.

GDP in 2023 international dollars
YearRoman/Byzantine Empireper capitaGDP (% World)PopulationPopulation (% World)
1425,100,000,0005702444,000,00020
10008,160,000,0006806.812,000,0004.5

See also

References

Citations

  1. ↑ Milanovic 2006, p. 460, 468:
    In conclusion, the fact that the average incomes in the most developed agricultural economies like Augustan Rome and Basil's Byzantium were about twice or less than the subsistence minimum might indicate that the pre-industrial societies were unlikely to ever exceed that ceiling. This in turn has implications for our assessment of the average standard of living in other, non-Western, pre-industrial economies like those of China, India, pre-Columbian Americas, and Africa....A further implication of these calculations is that a realistic maximum income that could be envisaged for the pre-industrial societies might be a bit more than twice the subsistence minimum, or around $PPP 1000 (at 1990 international prices).
  2. ↑ Bairoch 1976, p. 282
  3. ↑ Paul Bairoch (1995). Economics and World History: Myths and Paradoxes. University of Chicago Press. p. 95.
  4. 1 2 3 4 Maddison 2007, p. 379, table A.4.
  5. ↑ Haig, Bryan. 2005. "Review of The World Economy: Historical Statistics by Angus Maddison," Economic Reports, volume 81.
  6. ↑ Rostow, W. W. "Reviewed Work(s): Phases of Capitalist Development. by Angus Maddison," The Journal of Economic History, Vol. 45, No. 4. (Dec., 1985), pp. 1026-1028.
  7. ↑ MacPherson, W. J. "Reviewed Work(s): Class Structure and Economic Growth. India and Pakistan since the Moghuls by Angus Maddison." The Economic Journal, Vol. 82, No. 328. (Dec., 1972), pp. 1470-1472.
  8. ↑ Federico 2002, pp. 111–120
  9. ↑ Lo Cascio, Malanima Dec. 2009, pp. 391–420
  10. ↑ "China's magnificent historic past". BBC News. 2005-03-10. Retrieved 2010-05-08.
  11. ↑ Bairoch 1976, pp. 281, table 4; 295, table 10
  12. 1 2 3 The border between "Western Europe" and "Eastern Europe" as defined by Bairoch corresponds to the Iron Curtain, with "Eastern Europe" being identical to the Eastern Bloc (Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, the German Democratic Republic, Hungary, Romania, Poland, and the USSR plus Albania). All the rest of Europe makes up "Western Europe" (Bairoch 1976, pp. 317, 319).
  13. ↑ Lo Cascio, Malanima Dec. 2009, p. 411, table 6
  14. ↑ Jeffrey G. Williamson, David Clingingsmith (August 2005). "India's Deindustrialization in the 18th and 19th Centuries" (PDF). Harvard University . Retrieved 18 May 2017.
  15. ↑ James Cypher (2014). The Process of Economic Development. Routledge. ISBN   9781136168284.
  16. ↑ Broadberry, Stephen; Gupta, Bishnupriya (2005). "Cotton textiles and the great divergence: Lancashire, India and shifting competitive advantage, 1600–1850" (PDF). International Institute of Social History. Department of Economics, University of Warwick. Retrieved 5 December 2016.
  17. ↑ Paul Bairoch (1995). Economics and World History: Myths and Paradoxes. University of Chicago Press. p. 89.
  18. ↑ Maddinson, Angus (2001). HS-8: The World Economy 1-2001 AD. OECD. pp. 241, 243, 261, 263, 264.
  19. ↑ Goedele De Keersmaeker (2017), Polarity, Balance of Power and International Relations Theory: Post-Cold War and the 19th Century Compared, page 90, Springer Science+Business Media
  20. ↑ Scheidel, Walter; Morris, Ian; Saller, Richard, eds. (2007): The Cambridge Economic History of the Greco-Roman World, Cambridge University Press, ISBN   978-0-521-78053-7
  21. ↑ Scheidel, Friesen Nov. 2009, pp. 63–72
  22. ↑ Milanovic 2006, p. 468
  23. ↑ Milanovic 2006, p. 461

Bibliography

GDP of the Roman Empire
GDP of the Byzantine Empire
European GDP per capita
Angus Maddison — reviews and revisions
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