Opinion polling for the 2019 Indian general election

Last updated

In the run up to the Indian general election, 2019 , various organisations carried out opinion polls to gauge voting intention in India. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the Jan 2018 to April 2019. Many organisations have gone on to conduct exit polls and post-poll surveys as well, which too are displayed.

Contents

Background

Opinion polls in India can be controversial. These charges include partisan manipulation. [1]

Opinion poll methodology has heavily improved and agencies like CSDS have got it absolutely correct on 16 occasions, roughly correct on 7 occasions and wrong on 4 occasions. [2]

Post-poll surveys or Exit polls, widely published, are fundamentally different from opinion polls. [3]

Opinion polls

Number of seats projected in opinion polls per alliance over time. Opinion polling for the 2019 Indian general election.svg
Number of seats projected in opinion polls per alliance over time.
Indian General Election Trends - 2019 IndianGeneralElectionTrend.jpg
Indian General Election Trends - 2019

Various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions in India. The results of such polls are displayed in this list. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held in April and May 2014, to the present day. The ECI banned the release of exit polls from 11 April to 19 May, the last phase of the elections. [4] The commission also banned the publication or broadcast in the media of predictions made by astrologers and tarot card readers. [5]

Poll typeDate publishedPolling agency Others MajorityRef
NDA UPA
Opinion polls 8 April 2019Times Now-VMR2791491157 [6]
6 April 2019 India TV-CNX2751261423 [7]
Mar 2019Times Now-VMR28313512511 [8]
Mar 2019 News Nation 270134139Hung [9]
Mar 2019CVoter264141138Hung[ citation needed ]
Mar 2019India TV-CNX28512613213 [10]
Mar 2019 Zee 24 Taas 264165114Hung [11]
Feb 2019VDP Associates242148153Hung [12]
Jan 2019Times Now-VMR252147144Hung [13]
Jan 2019ABP News-CVoter233167143Hung [14]
Jan 2019India Today-Karvy 237166140Hung [15]
Jan 2019VDP Associates225167150Hung [16]
Dec 2018India Today257146140Hung [17]
Dec 2018ABP News-CVoter247171125Hung [18]
Dec 2018India TV-CNX2811241389 [19]
Nov 2018ABP News-CVoter261119163Hung [20]
Oct 2018ABP News2761121554 [21]
Aug 2018India Today-Karvy2811221409 [22]
May 2018ABP News-CSDS2741641052 [23]
Jan 2018CVoter3358911963[ citation needed ]
Jan 2018India Today30910213237 [24]

Vote share

Date publishedPolling agencyOthersLead
NDA UPA
Mar 2019News Nation [9] 34%28%38%6%
Mar 2019ABP News – C voter [25] [26] 41%31%28%10%
Jan 2019Times Now-VMR [27] 38.7%32.6%28.7%6.1%
Jan 2019CVoter[ citation needed ]37.6%32.2%30.2%5.4%
Jan 2019India Today -Karvy [15] 35%33%32%2%
April–May 2014 2014 General election results 36.0%23.0%42.0%13.0%

Polling on politicians

Next Prime Minister

Narendra Modi vs Rahul Gandhi

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
Narendra Modi Rahul Gandhi
Jan 2019India Today [28] 60%24%36%
Jan 2019India TV - CNX [29] 41%23%18%
Nov 2018ABP News- C Voter [20] 56%36%20%
Oct 2018ABP News- CSDS [30] 60%34%26%
Jan 201866%28%38%
201769%26%43%

Narendra Modi vs Priyanka Gandhi

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
YesNo
Feb 2019ABP news - Cvoter [31] 60%32%28%

Best Alternative to Narendra Modi amongst the Opposition leaders in 2019 Election

Date publishedPolling agencycan't sayLead
Rahul Gandhi Mamata Banerjee K. Chandrashekar Rao P. Chidambaram Akhilesh Yadav Arvind Kejriwal Naveen Patnaik Sharad Pawar Mayawati Nitish Kumar Sonia Gandhi Mulayam Singh Yadav
Jan 2019India Today- Karvy [32] 32%3% 3%3%   7%   12%34%
Jul 2018India Today- Karvy [33] 46%8%6%6%4%4%2%2%2%   12%34%
Jan 201845%9%9%7%5%4%4%2%3%   12%33%
Jul 201721%4%6%4% 7%3% 2%13%12%3%22%1%
Jan 201728%4%3%2%7%2%3%13%9%3%24%4%
Aug 201623%4%4%2%12%3%3%13%9%3%21%2%
Feb 201632%2%5% 10%1%3%8%15%2%15%17%

Approval ratings

Economic performance; compared to previous government

Date publishedPolling agencyDon't knowLead
BetterWorse
Jan 2019India Today -Karvy [34] 49%28%23%21%
Aug 2018India Today -Karvy [34] 51%24%25%27%
Jan 2018India Today -Karvy [34] 56%21%23%34%

Issues

Key Issues

Date publishedPolling agencyUnemploymentPrice riseCorruptionFarmers' plight
Jan 2019India today - Karvy [35] 37%19%15%12%

Farm distress; Low crop causing farm distress

Date publishedPolling agencyDon't knowLead
YesNo
Jan 2019India today - Karvy [35] 65%25%10%40%

Jobs; Enough created

Date publishedPolling agencyDon't knowLead
YesNo
Jan 2019India today - Karvy [35] 12%76%12%64%

Alleged corruption in Rafale deal

Date publishedPolling agencyYesNoNot aware of dealCan't say
Jan 2019India today - Karvy [36] 30%32%23%15%

Statewise opinion polling

Andhra Pradesh (25)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
TDP YSRCP
6 April 2019IndiaTV-CNX [37] 71811
Date publishedPolling agencyLead
TDP YSRCP UPA NDA

Arunachal Pradesh (2)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA
Date publishedPolling agencyOthersLead
NDA UPA

Assam (14)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA AIUDF
6 April 2019IndiaTV-CNX [37] 552 
Mar 2019Times Now-VMR [38] 8424
Date publishedPolling agencyOthersLead
NDA UPA AIUDF
Mar 2019Times Now-VMR [38] 37.0%32.4%12.8%14.3%4.60%

Bihar (40)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA
6 April 2019IndiaTV-CNX [37] 291118
Jan 2019ABP News - Cvoter [14] 35530
Nov 2018ABP News- C Voter [20] 34628
Oct 2018ABP News- CSDS [30] 22184
31922
Date publishedPolling agencyOthersLead
NDA UPA

Chhattisgarh (11)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA
6 April 2019India TV - CNX [37] 385
March 2019News Nation [9] 561
Jan 2019India TV - CNX [39] 561
Oct 2018Times Now [40] 835
Oct 2018ABP News- CSDS [30] 927
Oct 2018Times Now [40] 835
Date publishedPolling agencyOthersLead
NDA UPA JCC

Goa (2)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA
6 April 2019India TV - CNX [41] 2 2
Date publishedPolling agencyOthersLead
NDA UPA

Gujarat (26)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA
6 April 2019India TV-CNX [41] 24222
March 2019News Nation [9] 21516
Date publishedPolling agencyOthersLead
NDA UPA

Haryana (10)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA INLD
6 April 2019India TV - CNX [41] 918
Jan 2019ABP News - Cvoter [14] 734
Oct 2018ABP News- CSDS [30] 6313
Date publishedPolling agencyOthersLead
NDA UPA INLD

Himachal Pradesh (4)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA
Date publishedPolling agencyOthersLead
NDA UPA

Jammu and Kashmir (6)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA
6 April 2019India TV - CNX [41] 242
Mar 2019Times Now [38] 242
Date publishedPolling agencyOthersLead
NDA UPA JKPDP

Jharkhand (14)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA
9 April 2019Times Now - VMR [42] 1138
8 April 2019News Nation [43] 954
6 April 2019India TV - CNX [44] 1046
30 March 2019VDP Associates [45] 77 
5 January 2019VDP Associates [46] 4106
Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA JMM JVM

Karnataka (28)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA
6 April 2019India TV - CNX [37] 16124
Date publishedPolling agencyOthersLead
NDA UPA

Kerala (20)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
UDF LDF NDA
15–19 April 2019Twenty Four News [47] 10-128-100-20-4
14 April 2019Asianet News - AZ Research [48] 13617
8 April 2019Mathrubhoomi News - Nielson [49] 14519
6 April 2019India TV - CNX [37] 14519
March 2019News Nation [9] 154111
March 2019Times Now-VMR [38] 163112
Oct 2018ABP News- CSDS [50] 12626
Date publishedPolling agencyLead
UDF LDF NDA
15-19 Apr 2019Twenty Four News [47] 42%39%15%3%
14 April 2019Asianet News – AZ Research [48] 41%34%19%7%
8 April 2019Mathrubhoomi News – Nielson [49] 41%37%16%4%
Mar 2019Times Now-VMR [38] 45%29.2%21.7%15.8%

Madhya Pradesh (29)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA
6 April 2019IndiaTV-CNX [37] 21813
Mar 2019Times Now-VMR [38] 24519
Jan 2019ABP News -Cvoter [14] 23617
Jan 2019India TV - CNX [39] 18117
Nov 2018ABP News - C Voters [20] 22715
Oct 2018Times Now [40] 21813
Oct 2018ABP News- CSDS [30] 23617
Date publishedPolling agencyOthersLead
NDA UPA
Mar 2019Times Now-VMR [38] 49.20%39.70%4.30%9.5%

Maharashtra (48)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA SHS UPA NCP
6 April 2019India TV - CNX [51] 341321
Jan 2019ABP News - Cvoter [14] 28208
Jan 2019VDP Associates [52] 23223 
Jan 2019India TV - CNX [53] 228184
Nov 2018ABP News- C Voter [20] 2351469
Oct 2018ABP News- CSDS [30] 1623014
361224
22711811
Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA SHS UPA NCP

Manipur (2)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
UPA NDA NPF
Mar 2019Times Now [38] 110

Meghalaya (2)

Mizoram (1)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
UPA MNF NDA
Mar 2019Times Now [38] 011

Nagaland (1)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
UPA NPF NDA
March 2019Times Now-VMR [38] 0101
Date publishedPolling agencyLead
UPA NPF Others
Mar 2019Times Now-VMR [38] 30.1%68.7%5.9%38.6%

Odisha (21)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA BJD
6 April 2019India TV - CNX [37] 61148
Jan 2019ABP News - Cvoter [14] 12 93
Nov 2018ABP News- C Voter [20] 13356
Oct 2018ABP News- CSDS [30] 13267
Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA BJD

Punjab (13)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA AAP
6 April 2019India TV [37] 3916
Mar 2019Zee 24 Taas [11] 11026
Mar 2019India TV [54] 3916
Jan 2019ABP News - Cvoter [14] 112011
Oct 2018ABP News- CSDS [30] 112011
Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA AAP

Rajasthan (25)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA
6 April 2019India TV - CNX [37] 1789
March 2019News Nation [9] 1789
Jan 2019India TV - CNX [39] 15105
Jan 2019VDP Associates [55] 12131
Nov 2018ABP News- C Voters [20] 1789
Oct 2018Times Now [40] 24123
Oct 2018ABP News- CSDS [30] 18711
Date publishedPolling agencyOthersLead
NDA UPA

Sikkim (1)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
UPA SDF NDA
8 April 2019News X [56] 011
6 April 2019India TV - CNX [37] 011
March 2019Times Now [38] 011

Tamil Nadu (39)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
UPA NDA AIADMK
8 April 2019 Times Now-VMR [57] 33627
8 April 2019 PuthiyaThalaimurai TV [58] 31-336-827
6 April 2019 IndiaTV-CNX [37] 21138
5 April 2019 People studies-Loyola College [59] 333-528
Mar 2019 News Nation [9] 24159
Mar 2019 Times [60] 181563
Mar 2019 India TV-CNX [54] 221527

Telangana (17)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
TRS UPA BJP AIMIM
6 April 2019India TV - CNX [37] 124018
Mar 2019Times Now-VMR [38] 1212110
Date publishedPolling agencyLead
UPA TRS AIMIM NDA
Mar 2019Times Now-VMR [38] 30.30%41.20%7.4%17.60%10.9%

Tripura (2)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
LDF NDA UPA
Mar 2019Times Now-VMR [38] 0202
March 2019India TV-CNX [54] 110
Jan 2019Times Now-VMR [61] 0202
Dec 2018India Today [17] 110

Uttar Pradesh (80)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA MGB
8 April 2019News Nation [62] 372414
6 April 2019India TV - CNX [37] 414356
3 April 2019ABP News - Nielsen [63] 362426
1 April 2019India TV - CNX [64] 4643016
19 March 2019Times Now - VMR [38] 422366
12 March 2019News Nation [9] 352438
8 March 2019India TV - CNX [65] 414356
31 January 2019Times Now - VMR [61] 2725124
24 January 2019ABP News - Cvoter [14] 2545126
23 January 2019India Today [66] 1845840
2 November 2018ABP News - CVoter [20] 3154413
5 October 2018ABP News- CSDS [30] 362426
Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA MGB

Uttarakhand (5)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA
Jan 2019India TV - CNX [39] 413
Date publishedPolling agencyOthersLead
NDA UPA

West Bengal (42)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA AITC LF
6 April 2019India TV - CNX [41] 12128116
Mar 2019ABP News- Nielsen [67] 8331 23
Jan 2019Spick Media [68] 8430022
Nov 2018Spick Media [69] 5432127
Nov 2018ABP News- C Voter [20] 9132 23
Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA AITC LF

Union territories

Andaman and Nicobar Islands (1)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA
Date publishedPolling agencyOthersLead
NDA UPA

Chandigarh (1)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA AAP
Date publishedPolling agencyOthersLead
NDA UPA AAP

Dadra and Nagar Haveli (1)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA
Date publishedPolling agencyOthersLead
NDA UPA

Daman and Diu (1)

Lakshadweep (1)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
UPA NDA
Date publishedPolling agencyLead
UPA NDA NCP

Puducherry (1)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
UPA NDA
Date publishedPolling agencyOthersLead
UPA NDA

NCT of Delhi (7)

Date publishedPolling agencyLead
NDA UPA AAP
6 April 2019India TV - CNX [41] 7007
March 2019News Nation [9] 6015
Jan 2019India TV - CNX [39] 5114
Oct 2018ABP News- CSDS [30] 4 31

Exit polls

Poll typeDate publishedPolling agency Others MajorityRef
NDA UPA
Exit polls India Today -Axis352 ± 1393 ± 1582 ± 1370 ± 13 [70]
News24-Today's Chanakya 350 ± 1495 ± 997 ± 1168 ± 14 [71]
News18-IPSOS
CNN-IBN-IPSOS
3368212464 [72] [73]
VDP Associates3331159461 [74]
Sudarshan News 31312110941 [75]
Times Now-VMR306 ± 3132 ± 3104 ± 334 ± 3 [76]
Suvarna News 30512410233 [75]
India TV-CNX300 ± 10120 ± 5122 ± 628 ± 10 [77]
India News-Polstrat28712812715 [78]
CVoter 28712812715 [73]
News Nation 28612213414 [79]
ABP-CSDS 2771301355 [70]
NewsX-Neta242164137Hung [73]

See also

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