Economic policy of the second Donald Trump administration

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Under the second presidency of Donald Trump, the federal government of the United States has pursued an economic policy focused on lower taxation, deregulation, and large-scale protective tariffs. Trump nominated Howard Lutnick as the United States Secretary of Commerce, Scott Bessent as the United States Secretary of the Treasury, and Russell Vought as the director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), all of whom were confirmed by the U.S. Senate. When Donald Trump took office as president in January 2025, the economy of the United States had increasing economic growth, low unemployment, and declining inflation in the aftermath of the 2021–2023 inflation surge.

Contents

To cut the United States's federal budget, Trump established the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk. DOGE employees have vastly cut spending at various federal agencies, and have attempted to dismantle nearly all of the functions of the United States Agency for International Development and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Though Musk set the initial goal of US$2 trillion in savings for DOGE, he later revised it to $150 billion. By April 2025, he said DOGE had saved over $160 billion, though the costs of the mass layoffs of government employees and other methods offset much of its savings. In January 2025, the OMB briefly issued a pause to all grants and loans from the federal government.

Much of Trump's domestic economic agenda has centered around the extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which was passed during his first presidential term. Trump has also pledged to remove taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits, though all of his proposals face resistance from Congress, which the tax cuts likely to increase the U.S. national debt by trillions of dollars if not offset by politically unpopular cuts to spending. Trump also imposed steep protectionist tariffs against nearly every country in an effort to correct U.S. trade deficits and promote manufacturing in the U.S., significantly escalating the China–U.S. trade war and beginning a trade war with Canada and Mexico. The reaction to Trump's tariffs, including his April 2025 decision to impose a universal 10 percent tariff on nearly all countries and higher rates on many other countries, led to a stock market crash.

Background and campaign

Donald Trump, previously the president of the United States from 2017 to 2021, [1] campaigned in 2024 on the promise of an economic nationalist system characterized by protective tariffs, lower taxation, and reduced regulations, where income tax would be largely or completely replaced by tariffs on other countries to defend local manufacturing. [2] [3] [4] In his first presidency, Trump had also focused on protectionism. [5] In 2024, he vowed to enact even higher tariffs than those imposed in his first term, including a universal baseline tariff of 10 to 20 percent, and high tariffs on China, Mexico, and all cars imported to the United States. [2] [6] [7] He proposed a four-year transition away from essential goods imported from China [5] [8] and sought to transform the U.S. into a self-sufficient economy. [3] Trump pledged to extend and expand the 2017 tax cuts passed during his first term, [9] [10] and promised to remove taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security benefits. [11] [12] [13] Trump also pledged to devalue the U.S. dollar to cheapen American exports. [14]

Trump campaigned against the 2021–2023 inflation surge that followed the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, for which he blamed his successor, President Joe Biden. [15] Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election was attributed in part to voters' dissatisfaction with the Biden administration's handling of inflation. [16] Many economists criticized the Trump campaign's economic agenda for potentially leading to an increase in inflation [17] [15] [18] [19] and the addition of around US$15 trillion to the United States's national debt. [20] Ahead of Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025, the economy of the United States had increasing economic growth, low unemployment, and declining inflation by statistics. [21] [22] [23] [24] [25]

Personnel

Official portrait of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (cropped).jpg
Scott Bessent, the U.S. secretary of the treasury
Howard Lutnick 2025 (cropped) 2.jpg
Howard Lutnick, the U.S. secretary of commerce

In November 2024, as president-elect, Trump nominated several officials to serve in his cabinet during his second presidency. He nominated Howard Lutnick as the United States Secretary of Commerce, [26] Scott Bessent as the United States Secretary of the Treasury, [27] [28] and Russell Vought as the director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). [29]

On January 16, 2025, Bessent appeared before the Senate Committee on Finance and defended Trump's tariff strategy and said he favored extensions on tax cuts and harsher economic policies against China and Russia. [30] The U.S. Senate voted 68–29 to confirm Bessent as treasury secretary on January 27. [31] [32] The Senate Committee on the Budget approved Vought's nomination on January 30 in an 11–0 vote that was boycotted by all nine Democratic Party members and the one independent on the committee. [33] The full Senate voted 53–47 on February 6 to confirm him as the OMB director. [34] On February 18, the Senate voted 51–45 to confirm Lutnick as the commerce secretary, [35] and he was sworn in to the role three days later, on February 21. [36]

Budget and spending

Elon Musk, the de facto leader of the Department of Government Efficiency USAFA Hosts Elon Musk (Image 1 of 17) (cropped 3x4).jpg
Elon Musk, the de facto leader of the Department of Government Efficiency

Trump established the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), an initiative tasked with cutting federal government spending. DOGE is de facto led by businessman Elon Musk, who officially serves as senior advisor to the president. [37] [38] [39] DOGE members have filled influential roles at federal agencies and sought to vastly cut their spending, [40] facilitating mass layoffs of federal government employees and the dismantling of federal agencies. [41] [42] [43] Layoffs primarily focused on probationary employees, with nearly 10,000 federal employees fired by February 2025. [44] Musk initially said that DOGE would cut $2 trillion from the United States federal budget, which he first revised to $1 trillion, and later to $150 billion. [45] DOGE said in April 2025 that it had saved $160 billion; [46] an analysis has suggested that its cuts and firings have cost $135 billion, [47] and evidence has emerged of errors in DOGE's accounting that incorrectly inflates the amount of money it has saved. [48] [49]

Trump and DOGE have attempted to dismantle the vast majority of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). [50] USAID, which employed around 10,000 people, was originally tasked to carry out and monitor worldwide humanitarian projects, [51] though some have criticized it for contributing to projects that are not humanitarian in nature and for mismanaging its funding. [52] Vought was also made the acting director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) upon becoming OMB director, and he worked to shut down much of the CFPB's operations. [53] In February 2025, Trump directed the treasury secretary to end production of the U.S. penny. [54]

Trump appointed allies of him and Musk to the United States Office of Personnel Management (OPM) and the General Services Administration (GSA) to facilitate planned spending cuts. [55] [56] In January 2025, the OPM offered employees of the federal government a deferred resignation program in which they could receive their salary and benefits through September 2025 if they resigned before February 6. [57] Musk and DOGE gained access to the payment system of the U.S. Department of the Treasury. [58] Opposition to DOGE has resulted in numerous lawsuits challenging the legality and constitutionality of its actions. [59]

Federal government grant pause

Russell Vought, the director of the Office of Management and Budget Russell Vought.jpg
Russell Vought, the director of the Office of Management and Budget

On January 27, 2025, the OMB issued a temporary pause to all grants and loans from the federal government to 2,600 programs, in order to "determine the best uses of the funding" that was "consistent with the law and [Trump's] priorities". [60] [61] [62] The OMB later said that the pause would exclude "any program that provides direct benefits to Americans", such as Medicaid, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, Pell Grants, and funding for small businesses and farmers. [63] [64] The pause created uncertainty among government employees, lawmakers, and other organizations, [65] and the OMB rescinded the memo authorizing it on January 29. [60] The federal grant pause was blocked by a federal judge in February following lawsuits against it. [66] [67] [68] A judge ordered the Trump administration to "immediately restore frozen funding" on February 10, finding that the government had "improperly" frozen them. [69]

Taxation and deficits

In order to extend Trump's 2017 tax cuts, Republican Party members in Congress began considering cuts to various social programs, including Medicare. [70] [71] In January 2025, the Congressional Budget Office estimated than a 10-year extension of the tax cuts would increase the U.S. federal government deficit by over $4 trillion if not offset by spending cuts, and the elimination of federal taxes on Social Security benefits, tips, and overtime income would further increase the national debt. [72] [73] [74] Trump's proposal of enacting much of his legislative agenda with a single bill has led to resistance in Congress, with fiscally conservative Republicans objecting to the tax cuts without corresponding spending cuts, [75] and moderate Republicans opposing any bill with significant cuts to Medicare and Medicaid. [76] In February 2025, Trump signed an executive order directing the creation of a U.S. sovereign wealth fund before 2026, though such funds are typically funded by budgetary surpluses, which the U.S. does not have. [77]

Trade and tariffs

Donald Trump presenting a chart detailing "Liberation Day" tariff rates for many countries in April 2025 Trump showing a chart with reciprocal tariffs (cropped).jpg
Donald Trump presenting a chart detailing "Liberation Day" tariff rates for many countries in April 2025

Trump enacted a series of steep protectionist tariffs against nearly every country, raising the United States's effective tariff rate from 2.5 percent to 27 percent by April 2025. [78] He began a trade war with Canada and Mexico by imposing near-universal tariffs of 25 percent against both countries in March 2025 [79] after a one-month delay. [80] Canada imposed retaliatory tariffs on the U.S., [81] and Trump later indefinitely delayed tariffs on goods compliant with the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement on free trade between the countries. [82]

Trump justified his tariff policy because of the United States's large trade deficits with many nations and a desire to promote manufacturing in the United States that had been lost to offshoring. [83] When imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico, he cited the influx in illegal immigrants crossing the U.S. borders with Mexico and with Canada, as well as the opioid epidemic in the United States fueled by fentanyl originating in China reaching the U.S. through Mexico and Canada. [84] [85] [86] [87]

Trump also imposed a universal 10 percent tariff on China in February 2025, [88] which were raised to 20 percent in March, escalating the China–United States trade war. [89] [90] On March 12, he imposed 25 percent tariffs on all steel and aluminum entering the United States, [91] [92] and later that month the announced universal 25 percent tariffs on automobiles and automobile parts, which came into effect on April 3. [93]

On April 2, 2025, Trump announced universal 10 percent tariffs on nearly every country, with higher rates on 57 other countries. [94] The 10 percent tariffs took effect on April 5, [95] [96] and the variable tariffs on other countries took effect on April 9, but were delayed for 90 days shortly after they entered force for all countries except for China, which Trump further raised tariffs on. [78] China responded with retaliatory tariffs of 84 percent on American goods. [97] By April 11, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods reached 145 percent, [97] while Chinese tariffs on American goods reached 125 percent. [98] That day, Trump announced that U.S. tariffs on all countries would exclude consumer electronics, though electronics from China would retain a 20 percent tariff. [99]

Stock market

On March 9, 2025, Trump declined to say whether his policies could lead to a recession in the United States. [100] He said in an interview with Fox News that it would take time to see the payoff from his policies, but that they would ultimately be worthwhile, saying "If you look at China, they have a 100-year perspective. We have a quarter. We go by quarters, and you can't go by that. You have to do what's right." [101] In the following days, the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, and Russell 2000 indices entered corrections, which are defined as a fall in a stock market index of over 10 percent from its peak. [102] [100] After Trump's April 2 tariffs, the S&P 500 fell over 10 percent in two days, in its worst week since the COVID-19 recession of 2020. [103] [104] Markets worldwide dropped substantially at the same time in response to Trump's tariffs, [105] [106] [107] causing the Russell 2000 to enter a bear market [108] and the U.S. bond market suffered a sell-off resulting from a loss in investor confidence in the stability of the U.S. stock markets. [109]

Cryptocurrency

Trump promised to deregulate cryptocurrency in the United States, and turn the U.S. into the "crypto capital of the planet". [110] [111] [112] After his 2024 election victory, the price of Bitcoin reached an all-time high. [113] In March 2025, at a "crypto summit" hosted by Trump, David O. Sacks—who Trump named his administration's "crypto czar", said that the cryptocurrency industry had been "subjected to prosecution and persecution". [114] Trump named Paul S. Atkins as chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). [115] Under Trump, the SEC filed to dismiss its lawsuit against Coinbase that charged it with operating as an "unregistered securities exchange, broker, and clearing agency", [116] requested a 60-day pause in its lawsuit against Binance for violating securities laws, [117] and asked that its case against Chinese cryptocurrency billionaire Justin Sun, a Trump associate, be put on hold. [118] [119] The SEC also said it would not exercise any regulatory authority over memecoins, or cryptocurrency originating from internet memes. [120]

On January 17, 2025, three days before his inauguration, Trump had launched and promoted $TRUMP, a memecoin that soared to a market valuation of $5 billion in a few hours, [121] becoming the 19th most valuable cryptocurrency in the world by January 19. [122] Trump personally benefitted from the trade of $TRUMP, [123] potentially increasing his net worth by over $50 billion [124] and drawing criticism from ethics experts and government watchdogs. [122]

In March 2025, Trump established the United States strategic Bitcoin reserve, funded by Bitcoin already owned by the U.S. federal government and U.S. treasury. [125] The U.S. is the largest known state holder of Bitcoin in the world, largely due to seized assets. [126] Trump also created a U.S. government stockpile of non-Bitcoin digital assets. [127] [128] [129] [130]

References

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