Analysis
The vast majority of electorates outside Tasmania swung to Labor. This is especially true for inner-city seats. The vast majority of inner-city seats held by the Liberal Party were won by either Labor, teal independents or the Greens.
Labor notably failed to gain several former bellwether seats, such as the seats of Longman and Petrie in northern Brisbane.
Despite losing the two-party preferred vote both nationally and in every state except Queensland, the Coalition won the first preference vote nationally and in every state except Western Australia and the two territories. Nevertheless, both major parties had swings against them nationally and in all but four states and territories; Labor's vote increased in Queensland, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory, while the Liberal Party's vote increased in Tasmania. Tasmania was also the only state that swung to the Coalition on a two-party preferred vote. Outside Tasmania, the Coalition's vote dropped more than Labor's.
The Coalition's losses in seats were limited to the Liberal Party, as the National Party retained all of its seats, despite both Coalition parties having swings against them in the vast majority of seats.
On a two-party preferred basis, few electorates swung to the Coalition outside Victoria and Tasmania. These were the electorates of Calare, Fowler, Gilmore, Lindsay, Page, Parkes, Paterson and Whitlam in New South Wales; Herbert in Queensland; and Lingiari in the Northern Territory.
While teal independents contested a number of Coalition-held seats in every state except Queensland, they were most successful in wealthy inner-city seats, usually held by Moderates, where they were elected on preferences. The seats they gained were all from Liberals: Mackellar, North Sydney and Wentworth in Sydney, Goldstein and Kooyong in Melbourne and Curtin in Perth. These seats are all economically liberal, but environmentally progressive, which has previously seen the Greens finish ahead of Labor in these seats. Furthermore, teals held three other seats before the election (which they subsequently retained): Warringah in Sydney, Clark in Hobart and Indi in regional Victoria. The absence of teal candidates in Queensland may have boosted the Greens vote in inner-city Brisbane, where they won three seats, Brisbane and Ryan from the LNP and Griffith from Labor, which they won in addition to retaining the seat of Melbourne.
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