Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions

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Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions was a conference on Climate Change held at the Bella Center by the University of Copenhagen. The event was organised with the assistance of other universities in the International Alliance of Research Universities. The stated aim of the conference was to provide "a summary of existing scientific knowledge two years after the last IPCC report." [1] The conference took place on 10–12 March 2009.

Contents

Ian Chubb at the opening session of the conference Ian Chubb.jpg
Ian Chubb at the opening session of the conference

Notable speakers

The conference advertised the following notable speakers:

Political significance

The conference occurred approximately 9 months prior to the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference talks (COP15), also in Copenhagen. The Danish government will submit the results of the scientific congress to decision makers at COP15, [1] with the stated intention of scientifically informing the political COP15 negotiations. [4]

Key messages

Plenary speakers frequently likened global warming to playing Russian roulette. The "Congress' Scientific Writing Team" summarised the findings of the science in six preliminary messages. [5]

Recent observations confirm that, given high rates of observed emissions, the worst-case IPCC scenario trajectories (or even worse) are being realised. For many key parameters, the climate system is already moving beyond the patterns of natural variability within which our society and economy have developed and thrived. These parameters include global mean surface temperature, sea-level rise, ocean and ice sheet dynamics, ocean acidification, and extreme climatic events. There is a significant risk that many of the trends will accelerate, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts.

Social disruption

The research community is providing much more information to support discussions on dangerous climate change. Recent observations show that societies are highly vulnerable to even modest levels of climate change, with poor nations and communities particularly at risk. Temperature rises above 2°C will be very difficult for contemporary societies to cope with, and will increase the level of climate disruption through the rest of the century.

Long-term strategy

Rapid, sustained, and effective mitigation based on coordinated global and regional action is required to avoid dangerous climate change regardless of how it is defined. Weaker targets for 2020 increase the risk of crossing tipping points and make the task of meeting 2050 targets more difficult. Delay in initiating effective mitigation actions increases significantly the long-term social and economic costs of both adaptation and mitigation.

Equity dimensions

Climate change is having, and will have, strongly differential effects on people within and between countries and regions, on this generation and future generations, and on human societies and the natural world. An effective, well-funded adaptation safety net is required for those people least capable of coping with climate change impacts, and a common but differentiated mitigation strategy is needed to protect the poor and most vulnerable.

Inaction is inexcusable

There is no excuse for inaction. We already have many tools and approaches - economic, technological, behavioural, management - to deal effectively with the climate change challenge. But they must be vigorously and widely implemented to achieve the societal transformation required to decarbonise economies. A wide range of benefits will flow from a concerted effort to alter our energy economy now, including sustainable energy job growth, reductions in the health and economic costs of climate change, and the restoration of ecosystems and revitalisation of ecosystem services.

Meeting the challenge

To achieve the societal transformation required to meet the climate change challenge, we must overcome a number of significant constraints and seize critical opportunities. These include reducing inertia in social and economic systems; building on a growing public desire for governments to act on climate change; removing implicit and explicit subsidies; reducing the influence of vested interests that increase emissions and reduce resilience; enabling the shifts from ineffective governance and weak institutions to innovative leadership in government, the private sector and civil society; and engaging society in the transition to norms and practices that foster sustainability.

Scientific findings

Katherine Richardson, from the University of Copenhagen introduced the conference's climate science findings by saying there was "little, if any, good news". Notably however, one paper suggested that the Greenland ice sheet may remain at temperatures far higher than those envisaged by the IPCC, when more advanced modelling techniques were used. [6]

Initial press briefings focused on the increases to the estimates for potential sea level rise expected as a result of global warming, with the session led by Stefan Rahmstorf. Eric Rignot, Professor of Earth system science at the University of California, Irvine, said "As a result of the acceleration of outlet glaciers over large regions, the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are already contributing more and faster to sea level rise than anticipated. If this trend continues, we are likely to witness sea level rise one metre or more by year 2100." [7]

Media coverage

Coverage of the conference was extensive, with the BBC leading its reportage with the sea level rise findings. [8] The Guardian focused on the news that the Greenland ice sheet is expected to be stable at higher temperatures than those envisaged by the IPCC, [9] with additional coverage focusing on the projected die-back of the Amazon rainforest, [10] a story also run in The Times. [11]

The conference acts as a focal point for media coverage of climate science, and significant coverage has been given to announcements made prior to the conference by scientists . The Times reported notable climate scientist Professor Kevin Anderson as saying "We all hope that Copenhagen will succeed but I think it will fail. We won't come up with a global agreement,....I think we will negotiate, there will be a few fudges and there will be a very weak daughter of Kyoto. I doubt it will be significantly based on the science of climate change." [12]

The Observer reported Dr. David Vaughan, of the British Antarctic Survey as saying "Populations are shifting to the coast, which means that more and more people are going to be threatened by sea-level rises." and "It is becoming increasingly apparent from our studies of Greenland and Antarctica that changes to sea ice are being transmitted into the hearts of the land-ice sheets in a remarkably short time," [13]

Controversy

One of the more controversial aspects of the conference was the inclusion of a panel on geo-engineering. Over 80 civil society groups released a statement against geo-engineering to coincide with that panel. The Statement, which originated at the World Social Forum meeting in Belém in January 2009, asserts that "Ocean fertilization and other unjust and high risk geo-engineering schemes are the wrong answer to the challenge of global climate change." [14]

Seed magazine criticised both the credentials of the International Alliance of Research Universities, and the drafting process for the conference's key messages. [15]

Fringe sessions

The conference included fringe sessions, which were co-located but not part of the official timetable, including one on modelling runaway climate change.

Co-sponsoring institutions

The following institutions are co-sponsoring the event: University of California, Berkeley, Yale, Cambridge University, Oxford University, University of Tokyo, Peking University, Australian National University, National University of Singapore and the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology.

See also

Notes

Related Research Articles

Climate engineering is an umbrella term for both carbon dioxide removal and solar radiation modification, when applied at a planetary scale. However, these two processes have very different characteristics. For this reason, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change no longer uses this overarching term. Carbon dioxide removal approaches are part of climate change mitigation. Solar radiation modification is reflecting some sunlight back to space. Some publications place passive radiative cooling into the climate engineering category. This technology increases the Earth's thermal emittance. The media tends to use climate engineering also for other technologies such as glacier stabilization, ocean liming, and iron fertilization of oceans. The latter would modify carbon sequestration processes that take place in oceans.

The World Climate Conferences are a series of international meetings, organized by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), about global climate issues principally global warming in addition to climate research and forecasting.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Greenland ice sheet</span> Vast body of ice in Greenland, Northern Hemisphere

The Greenland ice sheet is an ice sheet which forms the second largest body of ice in the world. It is an average of 1.67 km (1.0 mi) thick, and over 3 km (1.9 mi) thick at its maximum. It is almost 2,900 kilometres (1,800 mi) long in a north–south direction, with a maximum width of 1,100 kilometres (680 mi) at a latitude of 77°N, near its northern edge. The ice sheet covers 1,710,000 square kilometres (660,000 sq mi), around 80% of the surface of Greenland, or about 12% of the area of the Antarctic ice sheet. The term 'Greenland ice sheet' is often shortened to GIS or GrIS in scientific literature.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Jonathan M. Gregory</span>

Jonathan Michael Gregory is a climate modeller working on mechanisms of global and large-scale change in climate and sea level on multidecadal and longer timescales at the Met Office and the University of Reading.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Effects of climate change</span>

Effects of climate change are well documented and growing for Earth's natural environment and human societies. Changes to the climate system include an overall warming trend, changes to precipitation patterns, and more extreme weather. As the climate changes it impacts the natural environment with effects such as more intense forest fires, thawing permafrost, and desertification. These changes impact ecosystems and societies, and can become irreversible once tipping points are crossed. Climate activists are engaged in a range of activities around the world that seek to ameliorate these issues or prevent them from happening.

Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was published in 2007 and is the fourth in a series of reports intended to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information concerning climate change, its potential effects, and options for adaptation and mitigation. The report is the largest and most detailed summary of the climate change situation ever undertaken, produced by thousands of authors, editors, and reviewers from dozens of countries, citing over 6,000 peer-reviewed scientific studies. People from over 130 countries contributed to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, which took six years to produce. Contributors to AR4 included more than 2,500 scientific expert reviewers, more than 800 contributing authors, and more than 450 lead authors.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tim Naish</span> New Zealand scientist (born 1951)

Timothy Raymond Naish is a New Zealand glaciologist and climate scientist who has been a researcher and lecturer at Victoria University of Wellington and the Director of the Antarctic Research Centre, and in 2020 became a programme leader at the Antarctic Science Platform. Naish has researched and written about the possible effect of melting ice sheets in Antarctica on global sea levels due to high CO2 emissions causing warming in the Southern Ocean. He was instrumental in establishing and leading the Antarctica Drilling Project (ANDRILL), and a Lead Author on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (2014).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Criticism of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report</span>

The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) is a report on climate change created with the help of a large number of contributors, both scientists and governmental representatives. There has been considerable political controversy over a small number of errors found in the report, and there have been calls for review of the process used to formulate the report. The overwhelming majority view of scientists with expertise in climate change is that errors, when found, are corrected, and the issues as identified do not undermine the conclusions of the report that the climate system is warming in response to increased levels of greenhouse gases, largely due to human activities.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tipping points in the climate system</span> Concept in climate science on critical thresholds

In climate science, a tipping point is a critical threshold that, when crossed, leads to large, accelerating and often irreversible changes in the climate system. If tipping points are crossed, they are likely to have severe impacts on human society and may accelerate global warming. Tipping behavior is found across the climate system, for example in ice sheets, mountain glaciers, circulation patterns in the ocean, in ecosystems, and the atmosphere. Examples of tipping points include thawing permafrost, which will release methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, or melting ice sheets and glaciers reducing Earth's albedo, which would warm the planet faster. Thawing permafrost is a threat multiplier because it holds roughly twice as much carbon as the amount currently circulating in the atmosphere.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">IPCC Fifth Assessment Report</span> Intergovernmental report on climate change in 2014

The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the fifth in a series of such reports and was completed in 2014. As had been the case in the past, the outline of the AR5 was developed through a scoping process which involved climate change experts from all relevant disciplines and users of IPCC reports, in particular representatives from governments. Governments and organizations involved in the Fourth Report were asked to submit comments and observations in writing with the submissions analysed by the panel. Projections in AR5 are based on "Representative Concentration Pathways" (RCPs). The RCPs are consistent with a wide range of possible changes in future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Projected changes in global mean surface temperature and sea level are given in the main RCP article.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sea level rise</span> Rise in sea levels due to climate change

Between 1901 and 2018, the average sea level rose by 15–25 cm (6–10 in), with an increase of 2.3 mm (0.091 in) per year since the 1970s. This was faster than the sea level had ever risen over at least the past 3,000 years. The rate accelerated to 4.62 mm (0.182 in)/yr for the decade 2013–2022. Climate change due to human activities is the main cause. Between 1993 and 2018, melting ice sheets and glaciers accounted for 44% of sea level rise, with another 42% resulting from thermal expansion of water.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Eric Rignot</span> American scientist

Eric J. Rignot is the Donald Bren, Distinguished and Chancellor Professor of Earth system science at the University of California, Irvine, and a Senior Research Scientist for the Radar Science and Engineering Section at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. He studies the interaction of the polar ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica with global climate using a combination of satellite remote sensing, airborne remote sensing, understanding of physical processes controlling glacier flow and ice melt in the ocean, field methods, and climate modeling. He was elected at the National Academy of Sciences in 2018.

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Deglaciation is the transition from full glacial conditions during ice ages, to warm interglacials, characterized by global warming and sea level rise due to change in continental ice volume. Thus, it refers to the retreat of a glacier, an ice sheet or frozen surface layer, and the resulting exposure of the Earth's surface. The decline of the cryosphere due to ablation can occur on any scale from global to localized to a particular glacier. After the Last Glacial Maximum, the last deglaciation begun, which lasted until the early Holocene. Around much of Earth, deglaciation during the last 100 years has been accelerating as a result of climate change, partly brought on by anthropogenic changes to greenhouse gases.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in Greenland</span>

Climate change in Greenland is affecting the livelihood of the Greenlandic population. Geographically Greenland is situated between the Arctic and the Atlantic Ocean, with two thirds of the island being north of the Arctic Circle. Since the middle of the 20th century, the Arctic has been warming at about twice the global rate. Rising temperatures put increasing pressure on certain plant and tree species and contribute to Greenland's melting ice sheet. This affects and changes the livelihood of the Greenlandic population, particularly the Greenlandic Inuit, which make up to 80 percent of the total population. Besides the decline of fish stocks, the country's landscape is changing: the melting ice reveals minerals, oil and gas. This has attracted interest from local and foreign investors for potential resource extraction. As new industries are accompanied by new job opportunities and potential wealth, lifestyles are changing. Greenland is in transition, in terms of biophysical as well as cultural and social conditions.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C</span> Special climate change report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (SR15) was published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 8 October 2018. The report, approved in Incheon, South Korea, includes over 6,000 scientific references, and was prepared by 91 authors from 40 countries. In December 2015, the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference called for the report. The report was delivered at the United Nations' 48th session of the IPCC to "deliver the authoritative, scientific guide for governments" to deal with climate change. Its key finding is that meeting a 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) target is possible but would require "deep emissions reductions" and "rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society". Furthermore, the report finds that "limiting global warming to 1.5 °C compared with 2 °C would reduce challenging impacts on ecosystems, human health and well-being" and that a 2 °C temperature increase would exacerbate extreme weather, rising sea levels and diminishing Arctic sea ice, coral bleaching, and loss of ecosystems, among other impacts.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate</span> IPCC 2019 report

The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) is a report about the effects of climate change on the world's seas, sea ice, icecaps and glaciers. It was approved at the IPCC's 51st Session (IPCC-51) in September 2019 in Monaco. The SROCC's approved Summary for Policymakers (SPM) was released on 25 September 2019. The 1,300-page report by 104 authors and editors representing 36 countries referred to 6,981 publications. The report is the third in the series of three Special Reports in the current Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) cycle, which began in 2015 and was completed in 2022. The first was the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C, while the second was the Special Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL), also known as the "Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems", which was released on 7 August 2019.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">IPCC Sixth Assessment Report</span> Intergovernmental report on climate change

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References

  1. 1 2 "About the Congress". Archived from the original on 5 October 2009. Retrieved 9 March 2009.
  2. ↑ "Plenary Speakers". Archived from the original on 12 July 2012. Retrieved 9 March 2009.
  3. ↑ "Webcasts from plenary sessions". Archived from the original on 5 October 2009. Retrieved 19 June 2013.
  4. ↑ McCarthy, Michael (9 March 2009). "Carbon cuts 'only give 50/50 chance of saving planet'". The Independent . Retrieved 10 March 2009.
  5. ↑ "Key Messages from the Congress". Climate Congress. 12 March 2009. Archived from the original on 16 March 2009. Retrieved 12 March 2009.
  6. ↑ Bamher, J.; Steig, E.; Dahl-Jensen, D. (2009). "What is the tipping point for the Greenland Ice Sheet?". IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. 6 (6): 062007. Bibcode:2009E&ES....6f2007B. doi: 10.1088/1755-1307/6/6/062007 .
  7. ↑ "Rising sea levels set to have major impacts around the world". Press briefing. Climate change: Global risks, challenges and decisions.
  8. ↑ Shukman, David (10 March 2009). "Sea rise 'to exceed projections'". BBC News . Retrieved 10 March 2009.
  9. ↑ Adam, David (10 March 2009). "Greenland ice tipping point 'further off than thought'". The Guardian . London. Retrieved 10 March 2009.
  10. ↑ Adam, David (11 March 2009). "Amazon could shrink by 85% due to climate change, scientists say". The Guardian . London. Retrieved 11 March 2009.
  11. ↑ Smith, Lewis (12 March 2009). "85 per cent of Amazonian rainforest at risk of destruction, researchers warn". The Times. London. Archived from the original on 29 May 2010. Retrieved 12 March 2009.
  12. ↑ Smith, Lewis (9 March 2009). "Hopes of climate change accord 'are sinking'". The Times. London. Archived from the original on 29 May 2010. Retrieved 9 March 2009.
  13. ↑ McKie, Rob (8 March 2009). "Scientists to issue stark warning over dramatic new sea level figures". The Observer. London. Retrieved 9 March 2009.
  14. ↑ "The better world we seek is not Geo-engineered! A Civil Society Statement against Ocean Fertilization". ETC Group Website. 10 March 2009. Retrieved 11 March 2009.[ permanent dead link ]
  15. ↑ HULME, MIKE (13 March 2009). "at_was_the_copenhagen_climate_change_conference_really_about/". Seed Magazine. Archived from the original on 17 March 2009. Retrieved 5 July 2009.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link)
  16. ↑ "IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science".
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