Relations between Ukraine and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) started in 1991 following Ukraine's independence after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.[1] Ukraine-NATO ties gradually strengthened during the 1990s and 2000s, and Ukraine aimed to eventually join the alliance. Although co-operating with NATO, Ukraine remained a neutral country. After it was attacked by Russia in 2014, Ukraine has increasingly sought NATO membership.[2]
Ukraine joined NATO's Partnership for Peace in 1994 and the NATO-Ukraine Commission in 1997, then agreed the NATO-Ukraine Action Plan in 2002 and entered into NATO's Intensified Dialogue program in 2005. In 2010, during the premiership of Viktor Yanukovych, the Ukrainian parliament voted to abandon the goal of NATO membership and re-affirm Ukraine's neutral status, while continuing its co-operation with NATO.[3] In the February 2014 Ukrainian Revolution, Ukraine's parliament voted to remove Yanukovych, but the new government did not seek to change its neutral status.[4][5][6] Russia then occupied and annexed Crimea, and in August 2014 Russia's military invaded eastern Ukraine to support its separatist proxies. Because of this, in December 2014 Ukraine's parliament voted to end its neutral status,[7] and in 2018 it voted to enshrine the goal of NATO membership in the Constitution.[8][9]
European NATO member countries in 2024 (blue), countries in the process of joining NATO (light blue), countries seeking membership (purple), and the Russia-led CSTO (red)
Polls held before 2014 found low support among Ukrainians for NATO membership.[18][19][20][21][22][23] However, Ukrainian public support for NATO membership has risen greatly during the Russo-Ukrainian War, and there has been overwhelming public support for joining NATO since the 2022 Russian invasion.
History
Ukraine's Declaration of Sovereignty, adopted by parliament in 1990, declared it had the "intention of becoming a permanently neutral state that does not participate in military blocs and adheres to three nuclear free principles" (art. 9).
Presidency of Leonid Kravchuk (1991–1994)
Relations between Ukraine and NATO were formally established in 1992, when Ukraine joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council after regaining its independence, later renamed the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council.[24] On 22 and 23 February 1992, NATO Secretary-General Manfred Wörner paid an official visit to Kyiv, and on 8 July 1992, Kravchuk visited NATO Headquarters in Brussels. An important event in the development of relations between Ukraine and NATO was the opening in September 1992 of the Embassy of Ukraine in Brussels, which was a link in contacts between Ukraine and NATO.[citation needed]
A few years later, in February 1994, Ukraine was the first post-Soviet country to conclude a framework agreement with NATO in the framework of the Partnership for Peace initiative, supporting the initiative of Central and Eastern European countries to join NATO.[25][24][26][1]
In the summer of 1995, Ukraine requested help[29] to mitigate consequences of the Kharkiv drinking water disaster to the UN Department of Humanitarian Affairs and to NATO. Various NATO countries and other organizations stepped up with medical and civil engineering assistance. This was the first cooperation between NATO and Ukraine.[30]
The Constitution of Ukraine, adopted in 1996 and based upon the Declaration of Independence of 24 August 1991, contained the basic principles of non-coalition and future neutrality.[31]
Kuchma and Russian president Boris Yeltsin negotiated terms for dividing the Black Sea Fleet based in Ukraine's Crimean peninsula, signing an interim treaty on 10 June 1995.[32] But Moscow mayor Yury Luzhkov campaigned to claim the city of Sevastopol which housed the fleet's headquarters and main naval base, and in December the Russian Federation Council officially endorsed the claim. These Russian nationalist territorial claims spurred Ukraine to propose a "special partnership" with NATO in January 1997.[33]
On 7 May 1997 the official NATO Information and Documentation Center opened in Kyiv, aimed to foster transparency about the alliance.[34] A Ukrainian public opinion poll of 6 May showed 37% in favor of joining NATO with 28% opposed and 34% undecided.[35]
On 9 July 1997 a NATO-Ukraine Commission was established.[36]
In 2002 relations of the governments of the United States and other NATO countries with Ukraine deteriorated after the Cassette Scandal revealed that Ukraine allegedly transferred a sophisticated Ukrainian defense system to Saddam Hussein's Iraq.[26]
At the NATO enlargement summit in November 2002, the NATO–Ukraine commission adopted a NATO-Ukraine Action Plan.[37] President Kuchma's declaration that Ukraine wanted to join NATO (also in 2002) and the sending of Ukrainian troops to Iraq in 2003[26] could not mend relations between Kuchma and NATO.[26] Until 2006 the Ukrainian Armed Forces worked with NATO in Iraq.[38] Most officials believed it would be too risky to allow Ukraine to join NATO as it would upset Russia greatly.
On 6 April 2004 the Verkhovna Rada adopted a law on the free access of NATO forces to the territory of Ukraine.
On 15 June 2004 in the second edition of the Military Doctrine of Ukraine, approved by the decree of Kuchma, a provision appeared on the implementation by Ukraine of a policy of Euro-Atlantic integration, the ultimate goal of which was to join NATO. However, already on 15 July 2004, following a meeting of the Ukraine-NATO commission, President Kuchma issued a decree stating that joining NATO was no longer the country's goal – only "a significant deepening of relations with NATO and the European Union as guarantors of security and stability in Europe."[39]
Presidency of Viktor Yushchenko (2005–2010)
US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and US Ambassador to NATO Victoria Nuland at the NATO–Ukraine consultations in Vilnius, Lithuania, on 24 October 2005
On 21 April 2005 in Vilnius, as part of an informal meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the NATO countries, a meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Commission was held, which opened a new stage in Ukraine's relations with the alliance – "intensive dialogue", which was intended to be the first step towards Ukraine's entry into NATO. During President Viktor Yushchenko's first official visit to the United States, President George W. Bush declared: "I am a supporter of the idea of Ukraine's membership in NATO." A joint official statement by the presidents of Ukraine and the United States said that Washington supported the proposal to start an intensive dialogue on Ukraine's accession to the NATO via a MAP.[41]
In April 2005, Viktor Yushchenko returned to Ukraine's military doctrine the mention of Ukraine's strategic goal – "full membership in NATO and the European Union." The new text read as follows: "Based on the fact that NATO and the EU are the guarantors of security and stability in Europe, Ukraine is preparing for full membership in these organizations." As in the previous version, the task of "deeply reforming the defense sphere of the state in accordance with European standards" was called "one of the most important priorities of domestic and foreign policy."[citation needed]
On 20 January 2006 in Budapest, following a meeting of defense ministers of Central European countries – NATO members – Hungary, the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia (which was attended by the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Anatoliy Hrytsenko) – it was announced that these states were ready to support Ukraine's entry into NATO. As stated, a necessary condition for this should be the support of this step by the Ukrainian society and the achievement of internal stability in Ukraine.[citation needed]
On 27 April 2006 at a meeting of NATO foreign ministers, the representative of the NATO Secretary General, James Appathurai, stated that all members of the alliance support the speedy integration of Ukraine into NATO.[citation needed] Russia, for its part, expressed concern about this development. As the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Mikhail Kamynin stated, "de facto, we will talk about a serious military-political shift affecting the interests of Russia, which will require significant funds for the corresponding reorientation of military potentials, the reorganization of the system of military-industrial relations. Arrangements in the field of arms control may be affected.”[citation needed]
After the Party of Regions received the largest number of votes in the 2006 Ukrainian parliamentary election and the new government, headed by Viktor Yushchenko's political rival Viktor Yanukovych, was formed, there was a turn in Ukraine's foreign policy. By the end of 2006, not a single representative of the pro-presidential Our Ukraine bloc remained in the government. Viktor Yanukovych's foreign policy statements contradicted Yushchenko's course.[citation needed]
At the beginning of 2008, the Ukrainian President, Prime Minister and head of parliament sent an official letter (the so-called "letter of three") to apply for the Membership Action Plan.[42][43] At the beginning of 2008 the work of the Rada was blocked for two months due, according to at least one observer, to this letter.[42]
Ukrainian membership in NATO gained support from a number of NATO leaders.[44] However, it was met with opposition from the opposition parties within Ukraine, who called for a national referendum on any steps towards further involvement with NATO. A petition of over 2 million signatures called for a referendum on Ukraine's membership proposal to join NATO. In February 2008 57.8% of Ukrainians supported the idea of a national referendum on joining NATO, against 38.6% in February 2007.[45]Ukrainian politicians such as Yuriy Yekhanurov and Yulia Tymoshenko stated Ukraine would not join NATO as long as the public continued opposing the move.[citation needed] Later that year the Ukrainian government started an information campaign, aimed at informing the Ukrainian people about the benefits of membership.[19][46]
In January 2008, US Senator Richard Lugar said: "Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and Parliamentary chairmanArsenii Yatsenyuk have signed the statement calling for consideration on Ukraine's entry into the NATO via the MAP programme at the Bucharest summit."[47] The Ukrainian parliament headed by Arseniy Yatsenyuk was unable to hold its regular parliamentary session following the decision of the parliamentary opposition to prevent the parliament from functioning in a protest against joining NATO. The parliament was blocked from 25 January 2008[48] until 4 March 2008 (on 29 February 2008 faction leaders agreed on a protocol of mutual understanding).[49]
US President George W. Bush and both nominees for President of the United States in the 2008 election, U.S. senator Barack Obama and U.S. senator John McCain, did offer backing to Ukraine's membership of NATO.[50][51][52] Russian reactions were negative. In April 2008, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke out against Ukraine's membership in NATO.[53][54]
At the NATO summit in Bucharest in April 2008, NATO decided it would not yet offer membership to Georgia and Ukraine; nevertheless, NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said that Georgia and Ukraine would eventually become members. Even though it was a powerful statement, one person cannot guarantee membership, especially before a country has applied for membership. Each existing member must approve an applicant country before NATO membership can be attained, in addition, conditions can be set on applicant countries before joining the organization.[55] Resistance was reportedly met from France and Germany;[56]Russia invaded Georgia less than four months later in August 2008.[57][58][59]
In November 2008, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and Ukrainian minister of defence Anatoliy Hrytsenko doubted Ukraine would be granted a NATO MAP at the December meeting.[60] In a Times of London interview in late November, Yushchenko stated: "Ukraine has done everything it had to do. We are devoted to this pace. Everything else is an issue of political will of those allies who represent NATO."[61] Although NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary-General Aurelia Bouchez[nb 1] and Secretary-General Scheffer[nb 2] still supported Ukraine's NATO bid at the time. However, the Bush administration seemed not to push for Georgian and Ukrainian MAPs in late November 2008. Condoleezza Rice told a press conference, "We believe that the NATO-Georgia Commission and the NATO-Ukraine Commission can be the bodies with which we intensify our dialogue and our activities. And, therefore, there does not need at this point in time to be any discussion of MAP."[64]President of RussiaDmitry Medvedev responded that "reason has prevailed."[65] On 3 December 2008 NATO decided on an Annual National Programme of providing assistance to Ukraine to implement reforms required to accede the alliance without referring to MAP.[66][67]
At the NATO-Ukraine consultations at the level of Defense Ministers held at the NATO headquarters in Brussels in November 2009, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen praised Ukraine's first Annual National Program, which outlined the steps it intended to take to accelerate internal reform and alignment with Euro-Atlantic standards, as an important step on Ukraine's path to becoming a member of the Alliance.[68]
Presidency of Viktor Yanukovych (2010–2014)
During the 2010 presidential election campaign, Party of Regions leader and candidate Viktor Yanukovych stated that the current level of Ukraine's cooperation with NATO was sufficient and that the question of the country's accession to the alliance was therefore not urgent.[69][70] Yanukovych's victory in the election marked a turnaround in Ukraine's relations with NATO. On 14 February 2010, Yanukovych said that Ukraine's relations with NATO were currently "well-defined", and that there was "no question of Ukraine joining NATO." He said the issue of Ukrainian membership of NATO might "emerge at some point, but we will not see it in the immediate future."[citation needed] On 1 March 2010, during his visit to Brussels, Yanukovych said that there would be no change to Ukraine's status as a member of the alliance's outreach program.[71] He later reiterated during a trip to Moscow that Ukraine would remain a "European, non-aligned state."[72][73]
As of May 2010, NATO and Ukraine continued to cooperate in the framework of the Annual National Program,[74] including joint exercises.[75] According to Ukraine the continuation of Ukraine-NATO cooperation does not exclude the development of a strategic partnership with Russia.[76]
On 27 May 2010 Yanukovych stated that he considered Ukraine's relations with NATO as a partnership, "And Ukraine can't live without this [partnership], because Ukraine is a large country."[77]
On 3 June 2010 the Ukrainian parliament passed a bill proposed by the President that excluded the goal of "integration into Euro-Atlantic security and NATO membership" from the country's national security strategy.[78] The law precluded Ukraine's membership of any military bloc, but allowed for co-operation with alliances such as NATO.[79] According to at least one encyclopedia this marks "when [the Ukrainian government] officially abandoned its goal of joining NATO",[80] although as late as May 2022 according to a member of the Shmyhal Government (Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration of Ukraine Olha Stefanishyna) the "letter of three" had "not been withdrawn since then."[43] "European integration" was still part of Ukraine's national security strategy.[78]
On 24 June 2010 the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers approved an action plan to implement an annual national program of cooperation with NATO in 2010.[81] This included:[81]
Involvement of Ukrainian aviation and transport material in the transportation of cargo and personnel of the armed forces of NATO's member states and partners participating in NATO-led peacekeeping missions and operations
Ukraine's participation in a number of international events organized by NATO
Training of Ukrainian troops in the structures of NATO members
Ukraine and NATO continued to hold joint seminars and joint tactical and strategical exercises and operations during Yanukovych Presidency.[82][83]
Presidency of Petro Poroshenko (2014–2019)
Yanukovych fled Ukraine amid the Euromaidan uprising in February 2014.[84] NATO officials vowed support for Ukraine and worked to downplay tensions between the bloc and Russia.[85] In late February 2014, Secretary-General Rasmussen reaffirmed that NATO membership was still an option for Ukraine.[86]
On 29 August 2014, following reports that the Russian military was operating within Ukraine, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk announced that he would ask the Ukrainian parliament to put Ukraine on a path towards NATO membership.[96] The government has also signaled that it hoped for major non-NATO ally status with the United States, NATO's largest military power and contributor.[97] As part of these efforts, and to rule out future Ukrainian membership in the Eurasian Economic Union and other Russian-led supranational entities, Yatsenyuk also submitted a draft law to repeal Ukraine's non-bloc status previously instituted by Yanukovych.[98] Following parliamentary elections in October 2014, the new government made joining NATO a priority.[2]
On 23 December 2014, the Ukrainian parliament renounced Ukraine's non-aligned status, a step harshly condemned by Russia.[84][99] The new law stated that Ukraine's previous non-aligned status "proved to be ineffective in guaranteeing Ukraine's security and protecting the country from external aggression and pressure" and also aimed to deepen Ukrainian cooperation with NATO "to achieve the criteria which are required for membership in the alliance."[100] On 29 December 2014, Poroshenko vowed to hold a referendum on joining NATO.[101]
A number of joint military exercises were planned between NATO members and Ukraine in 2015.[102] Among them were Operation Fearless Guardian (OFG) which totalled 2,200 participants, including 1,000 U.S. military. Initial personnel and equipment of the 173rd Airborne Brigade arrived in Yavoriv, Lviv Oblast, on 10 April 2015. OFG would train Ukraine's newly formed Ukraine National Guard under the Congress-approved Global Security Contingency Fund. Under the program, the US Army was to train three battalions of Ukrainian troops over a six-month period beginning in April 2015,[103] Others initiatives include Exercise Sea Breeze 2015 (total 2,500 personnel of which 1,000 US military and 500 military from NATO or "Partnership for Peace" countries), "Saber Guardian/Rapid Trident – 2015" (total 2,100 members, including 500 US military and 600 NATO/PfP personnel), as well as the Ukrainian-Polish air exercise "Safe Skies – 2015" (total 350 participants, including 100 Polish military) and military police "Law and Order – 2015" (total 100 participants, 50 of which are Polish military).[citation needed]
In September 2015, NATO launched five trust funds for €5.4million for the Ukrainian army. €2million are planned to be sent for the modernization of communication systems, €1.2million – to reform the logistic and standardization systems, €845,000 – for physical rehabilitation and prostheses, €815,000 for cyber defense, and €410,000 for retraining and resettlement.[citation needed]
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Petro Poroshenko, 10 July 2017
In July 2016 NATO published a summary of the Comprehensive Assistance Package for Ukraine (CAPU) after the Heads of State meeting in Warsaw. Ukraine declared a goal for their armed forces to become interoperable with those of NATO by 2020; the CAPU was designed to meet the needs of this process. The CAPU contained more than 40 targeted support measures in key areas like:[105]
Capacity and institution building
Command Control, Communications and Computers (C4)
Logistics and Standardization
Defence Technical Cooperation
Cyber Defence
Medical Rehabilitation
Counter-Improvised Explosive Devices, Explosive Ordnance Disposal and Demining
Security-related science
Strategic communications
Countering Hybrid Warfare
Security Services Reform
Civil Emergency Planning
Energy Security
On 8 June 2017 the Verkhovna Rada passed a law making integration with NATO a foreign policy priority.[106] In July 2017 Poroshenko announced that he would seek the opening of negotiations on a MAP with NATO.[107] In that same month President Poroshenko began proposing a 'patronage system', tying individual regions with European States.[108]
On 10 March 2018 NATO added Ukraine in the list of NATO aspiring members (others including Bosnia and Herzegovina and Georgia). Several months later, in late June, Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada passed a National Security bill: the bill defines the principles of state policy on national security and defence as well as focusing on Ukraine's integration into the European security, economic and legal system; improvement in mutual relations with other states and eventual membership in EU and NATO.[citation needed]
On 20 September 2018 the Ukrainian parliament approved amendments to the constitution that would make the accession of the country to NATO and the EU a central goal and the main foreign policy objective.[109]
On 7 February 2019 the Ukrainian parliament voted with a majority of 334 out of 385 to change the Ukrainian constitution to help Ukraine to join NATO and the European Union.[110] After the vote, Poroshenko declared: "This is the day when the movement of Ukraine to the European Union and the North Atlantic Alliance will be consolidated in the Constitution as a foreign political landmark."[111]
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg in June 2019
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was inaugurated on 20 May 2019.[112] On 12 June 2020 Ukraine joined NATO's enhanced opportunity partner interoperability program.[nb 3][113] According to an official NATO statement, the new status "does not prejudge any decisions on NATO membership."[113]
On 14 September 2020 Zelenskyy approved Ukraine's new National Security Strategy, "which provides for the development of the distinctive partnership with NATO with the aim of membership in NATO."[114][115][116] On 8 October 2020, during a meeting with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson in London, Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine needed a NATO MAP, as NATO membership will contribute to Ukraine's security and defense.[117]
On 1 December 2020 the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Andriy Taran stated that Ukraine clearly outlines its ambitions to obtain the NATO MAP and hopes for comprehensive political and military support for such a decision at the next Alliance Summit in 2021. Addressing the ambassadors and military attaches of NATO member states, as well as representatives of the NATO office in Ukraine, they were urged to inform their capitals that Ukraine would hope for their full politico-military support in reaching such a decision at the next NATO Summit in 2021. This should be a practical step and a demonstration of commitment to the 2008 Bucharest Summit.[118]
At the end of November 2020, it became known that the NATO Summit in 2021 would consider the issue of returning to an "open door policy", including the issue of providing Georgia with a MAP. On 9 February 2021, the Prime Minister of Ukraine, Denys Shmyhal, stated that he hoped that Ukraine would be able to receive an action plan for NATO membership at the same time as Georgia.[119] In response, the NATO Secretary-General confirmed during Shmyhal's visit to Brussels that Ukraine is a candidate for NATO membership.[120]
Zelenskyy and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan exchange signed documents on 16 October 2020.
On 7 April 2021, after the start of the build-up of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told a press conference with his Spanish counterpart Arancha González Laya that Lithuania intends to ask its NATO allies to provide Ukraine with a MAP:
In the near future, we should again turn to our colleagues with a letter to consider the possibility of granting MAP to Ukraine. I am convinced, and we have already begun to discuss this issue with our colleagues from the Baltic states, NATO could repeat its proposal to provide Ukraine with a membership plan. This step will become a "strong signal for Russia", in particular, that Ukraine has chosen the transatlantic direction for itself, is appreciated and has support in the NATO countries. – emphasized Landsbergis.
For her part, the Spanish Foreign Minister, despite the fact that Ukraine is not a member of the Alliance, said that the Allies' relations with it are already "fruitful, useful and are a symbol of NATO's vision of a peaceful neighborhood." She also added that the issue of Ukraine should be discussed at the summit of the North Atlantic Alliance, which is scheduled for June this year.[121] Following in the footsteps of his Lithuanian counterpart, Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs said on 7 April that NATO should provide Ukraine with a MAP:[citation needed]
We are watching closely as Russia draws troops to Ukraine's borders. It is not clear at this time what this is: a show of force or real aggression. But there is every reason to worry ... Ukraine has been trying to join NATO for 15 years by obtaining an Membership Action Plan. Apparently, it is time to provide this Plan to Ukraine. This will be at least a signal from us [NATO] that Ukrainians will not be left without support. I will definitely support this decision...
At the same April meeting, Stoltenberg said that "NATO firmly supports sovereignty and the territorial integrity of Ukraine."[citation needed]
On 10 April 2021, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Andriy Taran stated that the top priority of the Ukrainian political leadership is to obtain the Action Plan for Membership (MAP) in the North Atlantic Alliance in 2021. According to the head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, the most convincing and effective mechanism for communicating the position of the international community to Moscow is "accelerating the implementation of the decision of the 2008 NATO Bucharest Summit on our membership in the Alliance."[122] Receiving the MAP for Ukraine was also supported by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in a joint declaration of the Ninth High-Level Strategic Council between Ukraine and the Republic of Turkey.[123]
Following a meeting with Zelenskyy in May 2021, Democratic Senator Chris Murphy said at a briefing in Kyiv that granting Ukraine a MAP would be the next logical step toward NATO membership. He stressed that Ukraine has already made several reforms necessary to become a member of NATO, and is prepared to carry out additional reforms.[124] He also stated that if Ukraine and Georgia had received the MAP in 2008, there would have been no conflict with Russia at all:[125]
I understand NATO's concern about the prospect of integrating with a country in conflict. But, frankly, if Ukraine and Georgia had received the MAP in 2008, I don't think there would have been a conflict at all.
On 2 June 2021, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy called out a potential threat that could strengthen Russia's position in Europe: the failure to give Ukraine a clear signal and specific deadlines for obtaining a MAP for NATO membership.[126]
At the June 2021 Brussels summit, NATO leaders reiterated the decision taken at the 2008 Bucharest Summit that Ukraine would become a member of the Alliance with the NATO MAP as an integral part of the process and Ukraine's right to determine its own future and foreign policy course without outside interference.[10] Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg also stressed that Russia will not be able to veto Ukraine's accession to NATO:[127]
Each country chooses its own path, and this also applies to joining NATO. It is up to Ukraine and the 30 NATO members to decide whether it aspires to be a member of the Alliance. Russia has no say in whether Ukraine should be a member of the Alliance. They cannot veto the decisions of their neighbors. We will not return to the era of spheres of interest, when large countries decide what to do with smaller ones.
On 28 June 2021, Ukraine and NATO forces launched joint naval drills in the Black Sea, codenamed Sea Breeze 2021. Russia had condemned the drills, with the Russian Defense Ministry saying it would closely monitor them.[128]
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Brussels, 16 December 2021.Zelenskyy and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on 31 August 2021
On 28 November 2021, Ukraine warned that Russia had massed nearly 92,000 troops near its borders, and speculated that Putin intended an offensive at the end of January or early February. Russia accused Ukraine of a military build-up of its own and demanded "legal guarantees" that it would never join NATO.[129]
On 30 November 2021, Putin stated that an expansion of NATO's presence in Ukraine, especially the deployment of any long-range missiles capable of striking Moscow or missile defense systems similar to those in Romania and Poland, would be a "red line" issue for the Kremlin. Putin argued that these missile defense systems may be converted into launchers of offensive Tomahawk long-range cruise missiles.[130][131][132] He said that "In a dialogue with the United States and its allies, we will insist on working out specific agreements that would exclude any further NATO moves eastward and the deployment of weapons systems that threaten us in close vicinity to Russian territory."[133] Stoltenberg replied that "It's only Ukraine and 30 NATO allies that decide when Ukraine is ready to join NATO. Russia has no veto, Russia has no say, and Russia has no right to establish a sphere of influence to try to control their neighbors."[134][135]
On 17 December 2021, the Russian government demanded NATO end all activity in its Eastern European member states and ban Ukraine or any former Soviet state from ever joining NATO, among other demands.[136] Some of the demands had already been ruled-out by NATO. A senior US official said the US was willing to discuss the proposals, but added that there were some "that the Russians know are unacceptable".[136] EU High Representative Josep Borrell said these demands went against the founding principle of European security, notably the Helsinki Accords of 1975, signed by European countries and the Soviet Union.[137]
On 11 January 2022 it became known that a group of Republican congressmen intended to introduce a bill declaring Ukraine a NATO-plus country and initiating a review of the advisability of declaring Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. The authors of the bill argue that recognizing Ukraine as a "NATO+ country" will make it possible to quickly make decisions on the provision and sale of American defense goods and services to Ukraine. In particular, according to Mike Rogers, co-author of the bill, this rule concerns the provision of anti-ship and air defense systems. In addition, this bill proposes to create a mechanism for the rapid imposition of sanctions against Nord Stream 2 in the event of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. The authors of the bill are convinced that in this way they will forever block the commissioning of the pipeline. Also, if adopted, the United States is obliged to consider and vote on whether to grant Russia the status of a "country-sponsor of international terrorism."[138]
On 14 January 2022 Andrii Yermak, Chairman of the Office of the President of Ukraine, praised the preparation of sanctions in the event of a Russian invasion, but warned that such an invasion "would be a great tragedy." He also said that the Ukrainian authorities hope to hear specific conditions for joining the North Atlantic Alliance:
Ukraine has shown to its principles and positions that we are fully prepared and able to be a member of NATO. This means that at the Madrid summit this year we hope to see and hear very specific conditions and information about this, because today, especially today, I would like to repeat that now this is a matter of life and death for our country.
On 17 January 2022 Russian troops joined their Belarusian counterparts for an exercise aimed at "thwarting external aggression."[129] The exercise began on 10 February.[129]
On 25 January 2022 NATO "firmly ruled out Moscow's core demand against further NATO expansion." Russia sought an end to NATO's "long-standing open-door policy for new member countries" and that it remove troops and equipment from Eastern Europe. Dmitry Peskov said that "before there is any understanding of how we will continue, we need to get the text."[139]
On 27 January 2022 NATO submitted a proposal to Russia for the security of the latter, "that dismissed Moscow's central demands."[140]
On 28 January 2022 Putin said the West has ignored "Russia's fundamental concerns" on NATO's expansion and said that NATO had "strike weapons systems near Russia's borders."[129]
On 31 January 2022 at a tense meeting of the UN Security Council, The Washington Post reported that "Russia has demanded a Western commitment to exclude Ukraine from its security umbrella and the removal of NATO forces and equipment from Eastern Europe and the Baltic States" and according to Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield "has threatened to take military action should its demands not be met." Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya denied any plans for invasion and said Russia was within its rights to station troops anywhere within its own territory. He stated "Not a single Russian politician, not a single public figure, not a single person said that we are planning to attack Ukraine." On the same day Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said "The main question is our clear message that we consider further NATO expansion to the East and weapons deployment, which can threaten the Russian Federation, unacceptable." Stoltenberg said "Russia has used military exercises before as a disguise, as a cover... military buildup, exercises, threatening rhetoric and a track record... all of that together, of course, make this a serious threat."[141][142]
On 16 February 2022 NATO's commanders were instructed by Secretary-General Stoltenberg to work out the details of a battlegroup deployment to the alliance's southeastern flank because there were no signs of a Russian de-escalation yet.[143]
On 19 February 2022 at the Munich Security Conference Stoltenberg remarked that despite NATO's "strong diplomatic efforts to find a political solution [to the Ukrainian crisis]... we have seen no sign of withdrawal or de-escalation so far. On the contrary, Russia’s build-up continues." He said "we have made written proposals to the Putin administration to reduce risks and increase transparency of military activities, address space and cyber threats, and engage on arms control, including on nuclear weapons and missiles... [Putin] is attempting to roll back history. And recreate [the] spheres of influence. [He] wants to limit NATO’s right to collective defence... and demands that we should remove all our forces and infrastructure from the countries that joined NATO after the fall of the Berlin Wall... wants to deny sovereign countries the right to choose their own path. And their own security arrangements. For Ukraine – but also for other countries, such as Finland and Sweden. And for the first time, we now see Beijing joining Moscow in calling on NATO to stop admitting new members. It is an attempt to control the fate of free nations. To rewrite the international rulebook. And impose their own authoritarian models of governance."[144] On the dais with him was Ursula von der Leyen. Together they proceeded to give an interview to the witness audience.
On 20 February 2022 France and Germany called on their nationals to leave Ukraine.[129]
On 21 February 2022 Zelenskyy had accused Putin of "wrecking peace talks and ruled out making any territorial concessions."[145] The same day, Stoltenberg advised Russia "in the strongest possible terms, to choose the path of diplomacy, and to immediately reverse its massive military build-up in and around Ukraine."[146]
Also on 22 February 2022 Russian president Vladimir Putin declared that the Minsk Agreements "no longer existed", and that Ukraine, not Russia, was to blame for their collapse.[151] Stoltenberg condemned Putin's declaration: "This further undermines Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, erodes efforts towards a resolution of the conflict, and violates the Minsk agreements, to which Russia is a party."[145]
Reuters later reported that the deputy Kremlin Chief of Staff, Dmitry Kozak, had brokered a deal with Ukraine in February 2022 that would have kept Ukraine out of NATO. Reuters reported that it had been rejected by Putin, because he wanted to occupy and annex Ukraine. It was also unclear if the deal had Ukrainian government support. The Russian government denied the report.[153]
On 1 March 2022 Stoltenberg convinced the President of Poland to forgo sending any fighter aircraft to Ukraine because of the risk of attracting Russian attacks onto its territory, which would likely cause NATO to invoke Article 5 of its constitution.[154][155]
On 4 March 2022 following an emergency meeting of Foreign Ministers in Brussels, Stoltenberg rejected Zelenskyy's request to impose a no-fly zone over the country, stating that it might lead to a full-fledged war between the Alliance and Russia, and he declined to involve NATO, saying: "We are not part of this conflict." US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the Alliance was "doing everything we can to give the Ukrainian people the means to defend themselves against Russia... Unless the Kremlin changes course, it will continue down the road of increasing isolation and economic pain." The EU's High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security PolicyJosep Borrell maintained "It's Putin’s war, and only Putin can end it." Zelenskyy, incensed, replied:[156]
"Today there was a NATO summit, a weak summit, a confused summit, a summit where it was clear that not everyone considers the battle for Europe's freedom to be the number one goal... Today, the leadership of the alliance gave the green light for further bombing of Ukrainian cities and villages, having refused to set up a no-fly zone.
On 6 March 2022 Blinken raised the possibility of a three-way exchange between Poland, Ukraine and the US that would see Ukraine pilots fly Polish Mig-29s from a US airfield; in exchange for the Soviet-era jets Poland would receive used F-16s from the USAF.[157]
On 8 March 2022 Poland offered to donate 28 MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, "ready to deploy – immediately and free of charge – all their MiG-29 jets to the Ramstein airbase" under US control in Germany.[158][159] Press Secretary for the US Department of DefenseJohn Kirby rejected the surprise announcement, and said "we do not believe Poland’s proposal is a tenable one." The next day he said the US would oppose any such plan for NATO nations, and termed the idea "high-risk",[160] because it brought into question NATO's "co-combatant" status.[161] The idea was quickly shot down by Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin.[161] The Polish Prime Minister said on 9 March that any decision about delivering offensive weapons must be made unanimously by NATO members.[160]
Also on 9 March 2022 Zelenskyy's plea was reinforced by Azov battalion Major Denis Prokopenko, who was tasked with the defense of Mariupol: "If a no-fly zone over Ukraine is not provided soon we will not be able to manage the supply of water and food, medicine, as well as to evacuate people safely."[162]
At a press conference on 11 March 2022 Stoltenberg was quoted: "President Putin's war on Ukraine has shattered peace in Europe. It has shaken the international order. And it continues to take a devastating toll on the Ukrainian people. But Putin seriously underestimated Ukraine. And he seriously underestimated the strength and unity of NATO, and of our friends and partners around the world." At the same press conference, the Prime Minister of CanadaJustin Trudeau said that "Putin made a fundamental miscalculation. He thought Ukraine was weak, and he thought NATO was divided. He has been shown how wrong he is."[163]
On 15 March 2022 Zelenskyy stated that he did not anticipate Ukraine joining NATO in the near future due to a lack of consensus from member states that it was ready. He said "For years we have been hearing about how the door is supposedly open (to NATO membership) but now we hear that we cannot enter. And it is true, and it must be acknowledged."[164]
On 24 March 2022 the 30 NATO heads of state held a meeting in Brussels and one result was a statement, which read in part:[165]
Massive sanctions and heavy political costs have been imposed on Russia to bring an end to this war. We remain determined to maintain coordinated international pressure on Russia... We remain committed to the foundational principles underpinning European and global security, including that each nation has the right to choose its own security arrangements free from outside interference. We reaffirm our commitment to NATO's Open Door Policy under Article 10 of the Washington Treaty... We will continue to take all necessary steps to protect and defend the security of our Allied populations and every inch of Allied territory... We are also establishing four additional multinational battlegroups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia... President Putin's choice to attack Ukraine is a strategic mistake, with grave consequences also for Russia and the Russian people.
On 25 March 2022 Stoltenberg was interviewed by Euronews. He spoke of the Alliance doing "as much as they can" to support Ukraine, chiefly "with advanced anti-tank weapons, air defence systems" and with "financial support, humanitarian support, but also military support."[166]
On 4 April 2022 former Chancellor Angela Merkel defended her statement back in 2008 at the NATO summit in Bucharest to block Ukraine from joining NATO.[167] This has been due to Ukraine's political decisions not being met at that time.[167]
On 30 September 2022 Ukraine formally submitted an application to become a NATO member.[168]
On 2 October 2022 the presidents of nine NATO states[a] expressed support in a joint statement for Ukraine at some point joining NATO, in line with the conclusion of the 2008 Bucharest Summit, while not commenting explicitly on Ukraine's application.[169][170][171]
On 8 July 2023, US President Joe Biden said that Ukraine is not yet ready to join NATO, emphasizing, "I don’t think there is unanimity in NATO about whether or not to bring Ukraine into the NATO family now, at this moment, in the middle of a war."[172] Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky believes that the lack of a timeframe poses a setback for Ukraine. In July 2023, he said, "NATO will give Ukraine security. Ukraine will make the alliance stronger."[173] On the same day, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced that his country would fully support Ukraine's NATO membership.[174] At NATO's 2023 Vilnius summit it was decided that Ukraine would no longer be required to participate in a Membership Action Plan before joining the alliance.[175]
On 10 July 2024, Stoltenberg announced establishing a NATO command, headquartered in Wiesbaden, Germany, to ensure training and delivery of security assistance to Ukraine, consisting of 700 personnel.[176][177]
Public opinion in Ukraine
Popular support in Ukraine for NATO membership since 2000
According to numerous independent polls conducted between 2002 and the events of 2014, Ukrainian public opinion on NATO membership was split, with the majority of those polled against joining the military alliance and many identifying it as a threat.[19][240] A Gallup poll conducted in October 2008 showed that 43% of Ukrainians associated NATO as a threat to their country, while only 15% associated it with protection.[241] A 2009 Gallup poll showed that 40% of Ukrainian adults associate NATO with "Threat" and 17% with "Protection."[23] According to a poll by Razumkov Center in March 2011 20.6% on average across Ukraine considered NATO a threat; this number was 51% in Crimea.[242] A 2013 Gallup poll showed that 29% associated NATO with "Threat" and 17% with "Protection"; 44% viewed it as neither.[239]
An electronic petition to the president of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko was filed on 29 August 2015[244] requesting that a referendum on joining NATO be conducted. The petition achieved the required 25,000 votes to be considered. The president's reply stated that "One of the main priorities of Ukraine's foreign policy is to deepen cooperation with NATO to achieve the criteria required for membership in this organization. Today, we carry out security sector reform in Ukraine to reach NATO standards and to strengthen the country's defense system, which is necessary to counter Russian aggression. Once Ukraine fulfills all the necessary criteria to join the Alliance, final decision on this important issue will be approved by the Ukrainian people in a referendum."[245]
In February 2017, President Poroshenko announced that a referendum would have been held during his presidency, with polls showing that 54% of Ukrainians favored such a move.[246]
According to a sociological survey conducted by the Ukrainian Institute for the Future together with the sociological company New Image Marketing Group in January 2022, 64% of Ukrainians support Ukraine's accession to NATO, while 17% do not support it, 13% do not have an unequivocal opinion on this issue. In the west of Ukraine, in the city of Kyiv and in the south of Ukraine, there were the most supporters of joining NATO – 73%, 71% and 59%. This idea is supported least of all in Eastern Ukraine – 47%.[247]
In 1999, Russia signed the Charter for European Security, affirming the right of each state "to choose or change its security arrangements" and join alliances if they wish.[248] In 2002, Russia's president Vladimir Putin did not object to Ukraine's growing relations with the NATO alliance and said it was a matter for Ukraine and NATO.[249] In 2005, Putin said that if Ukraine wanted to join NATO, "we will respect their choice, because it is their sovereign right to decide their own defence policy, and this will not worsen relations between our countries".[250] However, since 2008, Russia has strongly opposed Ukraine joining NATO[251][252] and Putin has warned that it would be deemed a threat to Russia.[253] That February, he said Russia may target missiles at Ukraine if it ever joins NATO and allows the deployment of a US missile defense shield.[254] At the April 2008 Bucharest summit, Putin reportedly threatened to annex parts of Ukraine if it joined NATO.[255]
Following the 2014 Ukrainian Revolution, Russia occupied and annexed Crimea, and supported a pro-Russian insurgency in eastern Ukraine. Later that year, Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov called for a "guarantee that no-one would think about Ukraine joining NATO". This call was rejected by NATO's Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, who said "Each country has the right to decide what kind of security arrangements it wants".[256][257] Ukraine was a neutral country at the time, but its parliament voted to end this neutral status in response to Russian military aggression.[258]
Map of Russia's military buildup around Ukraine in December 2021. It is estimated that Russia deployed 70,000 troops.
From October 2021, there was a massive Russian military buildup near Ukraine's borders. On 30 November, Putin warned that if a NATO missile defense shield was ever deployed in Ukraine, it would be crossing a red line. He said that Aegis Ashore missile interceptors, like those based in Romania and Poland, could be secretly converted to launch Tomahawk missiles that could reach Moscow within minutes. However, there were no such plans to deploy a missile shield in Ukraine.[260][261][262] The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, replied "it's Russia that has developed ground-launched, intermediate-range missiles that can reach Germany and nearly all NATO European territory, despite Russia being a party to the INF Treaty that prohibited these missiles". He added that "Russia's violation led to the termination of that treaty" by the first Trump administration.[263]
In December 2021, the Russian government demanded NATO end all activity in its Eastern European member states and ban Ukraine or any former Soviet state from ever joining NATO, among other demands.[136] Some of the demands had already been ruled-out by NATO. A senior US official said the US was willing to discuss the proposals, but added that there were some "that the Russians know are unacceptable".[136] Several Western political analysts suggested Russia was making unrealistic demands as a "smokescreen", knowing they would be rejected;[136] giving Russia a pretext for military action.[264] Others suggested that Putin was "aiming high to squeeze concessions" out of NATO.[265] Stoltenberg asserted that "Russia has no say" on Ukraine's relations with NATO and that "Russia has no right to establish a sphere of influence to try to control their neighbors".[266][267] Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned "If there is no constructive response within a reasonable time and the West continues its aggressive line, then Russia will be forced to [...] eliminate unacceptable threats to our security".[268] NATO rejected Russia's key demands the following month, as they would go against its "open-door policy" and the right of countries to choose their own security. NATO offered to improve communication with Russia, and to negotiate limits on missile placements and military exercises, as long as Russia withdrew troops from Ukraine's borders.[269] Russia did not withdraw troops.
"Putin didn't invade Ukraine in 2022 because he feared NATO. He invaded because he believed that NATO was weak, that his efforts to regain control of Ukraine by other means had failed, and that installing a pro-Russian government in Kyiv would be safe and easy. His aim was not to defend Russia against some non-existent threat but rather to expand Russia's power, eradicate Ukraine's statehood, and destroy NATO".[271]
Peter Dickinson of the Atlantic Council suggested the real reason Putin opposed Ukraine's NATO membership is not because he believes it is a military threat, but because it would prevent him from controlling Ukraine.[272]Michael McFaul and Robert Person argue that Putin cannot tolerate a fellow Slavic neighbor being a successful democracy, because it could spur democratic change in Russia and undermine his autocratic rule. They write that Ukraine's relationship with NATO "was just a symptom of what Putin believes is the underlying disease: a sovereign, democratic Ukraine".[273]Steven Pifer argues that Russia's own aggressive actions since 2014 have done the most to push Ukraine towards the West and NATO.[274]
Dmitry Medvedev, Putin's deputy on the Security Council of Russia, said in 2024 that "We must do everything so that Ukraine's 'irreversible path' to NATO ends" with the "disappearance" of both Ukraine and NATO.[276]
↑ During a NATO conference in Hungarian Parliament on 20 November, she said "We should not make a choice between NATO enlargement and Russia as we need both."[62]
↑ He told a conference in Spain: "The emergence of independent states within the former Soviet space is a reality. The ability of these states to determine their own future is a litmus test for the new Europe. Do we have to choose between good relations with Russia and further enlargement? My answer is no – we will not choose, will not sacrifice one for the other. It would bring new dividing lines."[63]
↑ Australia, Finland, Georgia, Jordan, and Sweden are also NATO's enhanced opportunity partner program partners.[113]
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1 2 3 Khrestin, Igor (18 August 2008). "Politics as usual". Ukrainian Independent Information Agency. Archived from the original on 21 October 2008. Retrieved 20 September 2008.
↑ Archived 18 January 2022 at the Wayback Machine Гущин А. В. Украина после Евромайдана. Пять лет кризиса и надежд: рабочая тетрадь № 54/2019 [А. В. Гущин, А. С. Левченков; гл. ред. И. С. Иванов; Российский совет по международным делам (РСМД). — М.: НП РСМД, 2019. — 60 с. — ISBN 978-5-6042566-5-7
↑ "Зеленський у Британії заявив, що Україні потрібен ПДЧ в НАТО"[Zelenskyy said in Britain that Ukraine needed a MAP in NATO]. Інформаційне агентство Українські Національні Новини (УНН). Всі онлайн новини дня в Україні за сьогодні – найсвіжіші, останні, головні. 8 October 2020. Archived from the original on 24 February 2022. Retrieved 9 October 2020.
↑ "Новини". Міністерство оборони України. Archived from the original on 2 February 2022. Retrieved 1 December 2020.
↑ "European Truth". NATO Secretary General: It is not up to Russia to decide whether Ukraine will be a member of the Alliance. Archived from the original on 2 February 2022. Retrieved 14 June 2021.
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