2025 Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) presidential election

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2025 Liberal Democratic Party leadership election
Zi Min Dang Logo.svg
←  2024 4 October 2025
  Yoshimasa Hayashi 20211118 (cropped).jpg Takayuki Kobayashi 20171218 (cropped).jpg Shinjiro Koizumi 20250521 (cropped).jpg
Candidate Yoshimasa Hayashi Takayuki Kobayashi Shinjirō Koizumi
  Shigeru Ishiba and Sanae Takaichi 20241211 (cropped).jpg Toshimitsu Motegi 2024.jpg
Candidate Sanae Takaichi Toshimitsu Motegi
Incumbent President

Shigeru Ishiba



The 2025 Liberal Democratic Party presidential election will be held on 4 October 2025 to elect the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan. As the LDP is the senior partner of a minority government coalition with the Komeito, the winner will also likely be elected Prime Minister, unless opposition parties in the House of Representatives coalesce around a different nominee. [1] [2]

Contents

Election procedure

The election process for the President of the LDP is established in the "Rules for the Election of President of the Party". In order to officially qualify as a candidate in the election, a candidate must be an LDP member of the National Diet and must receive a nomination from at least 20 fellow LDP Diet members.

The LDP selects its leader via a two-round election involving both LDP members of the Diet and dues-paying party members from across Japan. In the first round, all LDP members of the Diet will cast one vote while party member votes are translated proportionally into votes equaling the other half of the total ballots. If any candidate wins a majority (over 50%) of votes in the first round, that candidate is elected president.

According to NHK News, there are two ways to conduct a presidential election, depending on whether or not it includes a party member vote. Party rules stipulate that the election will be contested through a combination of votes from Diet members and "party member votes" from party members across Japan; this was how the previous presidential election was conducted, with over 1.05 million party members voting nationwide. However, during "particularly urgent cases," such as the president's resignation during his term, Diet members and 3 representatives from each of the 47 prefectural party chapters will vote at a general meeting of both houses of parliament, which replaces the party convention; the last time this occurred was in 2020, when Yoshihide Suga replaced Shinzo Abe as party president. [3] TBS News reported on 8 September that the presidential election would likely be conducted in the former format, allowing local party members to vote. [4] This was confirmed the following day. [5] [6] [7]

As with the last leadership election, the LDP Presidential Election Commission is chaired by Ichiro Aisawa. [8]

Background

Premiership of Shigeru Ishiba and impact of election losses

Shigeru Ishiba was elected party president and prime minister in 2024; he led the party through two subsequent elections, in which the LDP lost its majority in both the House of Representatives and House of Councilors, respectively. Shigeru Ishiba policy speech2 20241004.jpg
Shigeru Ishiba was elected party president and prime minister in 2024; he led the party through two subsequent elections, in which the LDP lost its majority in both the House of Representatives and House of Councilors, respectively.

Shigeru Ishiba won the 2024 LDP leadership election in September 2024, defeating Sanae Takaichi. [9] The win was considered an upset, as Ishiba, generally considered a centrist, defeated Takaichi, a conservative nationalist, in a second round runoff. [10] [11] Ishiba became Prime Minister in October, and immediately called a general election. [12] In the snap election, the LDP, and its coalition partner the Komeito, lost its majority for the first time since 2009, while opposition parties such as the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) made gains. [13] Two members of Ishiba's cabinet lost their seats, as the government was reduced to a minority status. [14] As no party controlled the House of Representatives, Ishiba was reelected Prime Minister in the Diet in a runoff vote, after opposition parties failed to coalesce around a single candidate. Ishiba reshuffled his cabinet. [15]

Elections for Japan's Upper House, the House of Councilors, were due in July 2025. Once again, the LDP–Komeito coalition lost its majority, as parties like the CDP and DPFP, as well as the far-right nationalist Sanseitō party, made gains. [16] After both elections, Ishiba invoked a parliamentary plurality in both houses, and believed the LDP had a responsibility to lead the government, as it would in most other parliamentary democracies. [17] Pressure continued to mount on Ishiba to resign as LDP President, but he refused and said he planned to continue serving as Prime Minister. [18] It was falsely reported on 23 July 2025 that Ishiba would resign in late August, before Ishiba himself debunked the rumors at LDP headquarters that same day. [19] [20] [21] Mid-career and junior members of the LDP, primarily members and former members of the Motegi faction, began collecting signatures to call for the early convening of a joint meeting of the party representing both houses of parliament. [22]

The consecutive election losses impacted the composition of party factions, most of which had officially disbanded after 2024, but still played a crucial role in the LDP's internal politics. ' The Nikkei reported shortly after the Upper House elections that the strength of the Abe faction (a more conservative party faction once led by the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe) has been reduced by almost 40% since October 2024. [23]

Potential candidates emerge

Shinjiro Koizumi was appointed to the cabinet by Shigeru Ishiba in May 2025. Shinjiro Koizumi and Shigeru Ishiba May 2025.jpg
Shinjiro Koizumi was appointed to the cabinet by Shigeru Ishiba in May 2025.

Even before Ishiba announced his resignation, several senior LDP members were floated by the media as possible successors to him as party president, with some members even hinting at the possibility of running. On 18 July 2025, before the Upper House election was even held, Sanae Takaichi said she had “already made up her mind” about running and expressed desire to become LDP President. [24] The day after the election, she met with some of her supporters, as well as former Prime Minister and party elder Tarō Asō. [25] Takayuki Kobayashi, a fellow staunch conservative and candidate in the previous leadership election, also met with supporters. [26] Kobayashi met with them again in August. [27]

Shinjiro Koizumi, a son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and former cabinet minister under Shinzo Abe, was appointed as Agriculture Minister by Ishiba in May 2025. [28] Later in August, after the Upper House elections, he met with former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida; Koizumi came in third place in the previous presidential race with support from some of Kishida's faction members. [29] Koizumi later met with Tarō Aso that same month. [30] When he was asked if he was considering running earlier in July, Koizumi avoided the question, instead claiming he would primarily focus on rice policy. [31]

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, a veteran conservative who had served under numerous Prime Ministers, stated his intention to continue supporting Ishiba on 22 July, the day of the Upper House election. [32]

Due to the government's minority status, Nikkei Asia reported that the next party leader would have to have good connections with the opposition. [33] Sankei Shimbun reported that the expectation was that the next leadership election would be between Koizumi and Takaichi. [34]

Pressure builds, emergency election considered

On 6 August, Ishiba ordered an investigation into political party branches over corporate donations, which prompted criticism from within the party. [35] During a joint plenary session on 8 August, the LDP decided that it would determine whether or not to move forward with an "emergency presidential election” based on opinions by lawmakers and prefectural branch chiefs. During the meeting, Ishiba repeated his intention to stay in office. [36] A majority of lawmakers and prefectural branch chiefs (172 at the time) was required to demand a presidential election. [37]

A joint meeting of both houses of parliament was held on 8 August, with 253 members in attendance and 35 speaking. At the meeting, it was decided that the LDP Presidential Election Management Committee would consider whether to hold an early presidential election in accordance with Article 6, Paragraph 4 of the LDP rules. [38] [39]

Later on 13 August, Ishiba repeated his intention to continue in office as the LDP began to consider holding an emergency presidential election to force Ishiba to face the party in another leadership vote. [40] The LDP's presidential election management committee began to discuss on the procedures for deciding whether or not to hold a special presidential election on 19 August. [41] The committee announced the following day that they would begin the process once the party's internal review of the Upper House election was completed. [42] Kyodo News reported that the committee would explore the idea of disclosing the names of lawmakers who sign a paper demanding that a special election take place. [43] This was confirmed on 27 August with the deadline to confirm lawmakers intentions being announced as 8 September. [44] NHK reported on 28 August that the party would solidify its decision in September. Deliberations continued within the party as the LDP's General Review Committee compiled its review of the election results. [45]

The LDP Presidential Election Management Committee met on 19 August, and it was decided to proceed with consideration of the method of confirmation, which would involve having Diet members who wish to hold an early presidential election submit their request in writing. [46] [47] Regarding the advancement of the presidential election, while there are forces defending Ishiba, there is also a growing opinion that Ishiba should be held accountable and that an emergency presidential election should be held instead, coming from non-mainstream factions such as the former Abe, Motegi, and Nikai factions, as well as young and mid-career Diet members and some prefectural federations. [48] Even among the three political officials (Vice Ministers and Parliamentary Vice-Ministers) in the Ishiba Cabinet, Kobayashi Fumiaki, Saito Hiroaki, and Kanda Junichi, there are calls for an emergency presidential election, and some have even expressed a willingness to resign from their positions if necessary. [49] [50] [51]

On 31 August, the protests calling for the resignation of the Ishiba administration was held in front of the Prime Minister's Office, with 4,000 people (according to the organizers) attending. However, compared to the "Ishiba Resign Demonstration" held on the 25th of the previous month, which was attended by 1,200 people (according to the organizers) in support of the continued existence of the Ishiba administration, it received almost no coverage, and Senator Masashi Nishida questioned the media's reporting stance. [52]

LDP Special Advisor Taro Aso announced his support for an emergency presidential election on 3 September 2025. Animosity had developed between Ishiba and Aso since the previous leadership election. Taro Aso 20170920 (cropped).jpg
LDP Special Advisor Taro Aso announced his support for an emergency presidential election on 3 September 2025. Animosity had developed between Ishiba and Aso since the previous leadership election.

Support for Ishiba within his cabinet was mixed. Digital Minister Masaaki Taira stated he would "naturally support" Ishiba if he were to stand for re-election in a hypothetical emergency election. [53] Economic Revitalization Minister Ryosei Akazawa, who had spearheaded negotiations regarding tariffs with the Trump Administration in the United States, said he would also support Ishiba. Akazawa, also hailing from Ishiba's own Tottori Prefecture, said he took immense pride in his role as Ishiba's aide. [54] Ishiba's Defense Minister, Gen Nakatani stated bluntly that "The LDP should not hold a special presidential election" on 26 August. [55] Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya stated that an emergency election would have a “negative impact” on Japanese foreign policy, as it would disrupt continuity. [56] Cracks started to form in late August, as junior cabinet ministers began to speak out in favor of an emergency election. Parliamentary Vice Minister of Justice Junichi Kanda  [ ja ] said on 27 August that he was considering resigning from the Cabinet to advocate for a special election. [57] In a statement on Twitter the following day, State Minister (Deputy Minister) of the Environment Fumiaki Kobayashi said that a special presidential election should be held as soon as possible, claiming he would resign as a vice minister if necessary. [58] The day afterwards, several members of the Mortegi faction, including Deputy Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Hiroyoshi Sasagawa, agreed to support an early leadership election. [59] That same day, former Economic Minister Takayuki Kobayashi, himself a candidate in the previous leadership candidate, said he would sign documentation requesting an emergency election. [60] On 31 August, Deputy Finance Minister Hiroaki Saito announced his support for a special election. [61] This was followed almost immediately by similar calls from Parliamentary Vice Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Yasuhiro Takami, former Education Minister Masahiko Shibayama, and House of Councilors Member Hiroshi Yamada. [62] As more party lawmakers began to speak out, focus began to shift towards prefectural party chapters; some MPs said they would make a decision based on the wishes of their local community. By 4 September, the party chapters in the prefectures of Hokkaido, Hyogo, Kagawa, Ehime, and Miyazaki all called for a special election. Fukushima, Okayama, and Oita prefectures, opted not to call for an election. Party chapters in Ibaraki, Yamagata, Ibaraki, Saitama, Niigata, Yamanashi, and Nagano prefectures "consolidated opinions” in favor of an election, while 33 prefectural federations continued to debate their own respective responses. [63] The previous day, LDP Special Advisor, former Prime Minister, and power-broker Taro Aso, declared his support for an early leadership election. Aso had been calling for Ishiba to step down since the Upper House election in July, and had feelings of animosity towards Ishiba since he won the party leadership in September 2024. [64] Agriculture Minister Shinjirō Koizumi meanwhile defended junior ministers calling for a special election, saying, "It would be strange for them not to feel a sense of crisis after losing [a majority in] both the House of Representatives and House of Councillors…” He continued to call for party unity, and said he would make up his mind after the review of the results was completed. [65] In late August, former Defense Minister Tomomi Inada stated she understood public opinion questioning why lawmakers implicated in the slush fund scandal "who have not taken responsibility themselves" were pressuring Ishiba to step down. [66] As August came to close, it was becoming clear that while the LDP's party approval had fallen, Ishiba Cabinet approval had increased. [67] [68]

Itsunori Onodera 20170803 2.jpg
Shunichi Suzuki 20211004 (cropped).jpg
Hiroshi Moriyama 20240604.jpg
Three senior party executives, Policy Research Council Chairman Itsunori Onodera, LDP General Affairs Chairman Shun'ichi Suzuki, and Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama, all announced their resignations on 2 September 2025.

At a "Joint Party Meeting of Members of both Houses of Parliament" held on 2 September, the LDP published its summary of Upper House election results, stating that its measures to combat rising prices did not resonate with the public and that it lost trust due to issues related to politics and money. Ishiba once again apologized for the loss of a majority, and clarified "I am not at all clinging to my position, but rather it is my responsibility to make proper decisions at the appropriate time." He subsequently told reporters that he intended to stay in office. That same day, three senior party executives resigned their positions seemingly simultaneously. LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Itsunori Onodera, LDP General Affairs Chairman Shun'ichi Suzuki, and LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama all conveyed their intentions to resign to Ishiba. [69] After this, Ishiba reiterated once again that he intended to remain as Prime Minister. [70] As this was happening, some members of Ishiba's cabinet continued to reiterate their support. Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya said that there was “no need” and “no time” for an emergency leadership election, and that "There is no one better suited to the job than Prime Minister Ishiba." Discontent continued to brew however, former Economic Minister and previous leadership candidate Sanae Takaichi called for a special election. [71] Koizumi continued to give unclear answers, simply stating that "it is not good at all for the public to continue to see the image of a party in a state of disarray.” and that he would “face this issue head on." [72] In a survey, NHK reported that ~100 lawmakers supported an election, 50 oppose, ~100 were undecided, around 30 refused to comment, and ~10 were unreachable. [73] Pressure only continued to mount as Deputy Minister of Justice Masahiro Komura announced on Facebook on 3 September that he would support an early presidential election, followed by Deputy Minister of Education Arata Takebe and Deputy Minister of Digital Affairs Yasushi Hosaka. [74] On 4 September, Koizumi stressed that “we don't have time to waste on political battles” and once said he felt a sense of crisis. [75] That same day, party chapters from Oita and Okayama decided not to call for an early election. [76] Ishiba continued to repeat that he planned to remain Prime Minister. [77] In early September, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi met with about 10 LDP lawmakers close to him. [78] LDP Chief Advisor Aso and former Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi met the same month. [79]

On the evening of 5 September, Ishiba met with close allies within his cabinet, including Foreign Minister Iwatake and Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Seiichiro Murakami, at a hotel in Tokyo. [80] Earlier that day, Minister of Justice Keisuke Suzuki became the first cabinet minister to support an early presidential election, writing that "to restore trust in the party, it is necessary for the party to unite and start anew from scratch." [81] That same day, a Kyodo survey of the LDP's 295 lawmakers found that over 120 lawmakers supported an emergency presidential election, while just under 50 opposed it. [82] By this point, Ishiba had reportedly threatened to ask the Emperor to dissolve the House of Representatives and call a general election, which would require invoking Article 7 of the Constitution. [83] On the following night, on 6 September, both Koizumi and former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga (who had served as Vice President of the Liberal Democratic Party under Ishiba) reportedly urged Ishiba to resign at the Prime Minister's Official Residence in Tokyo. [84] [85] [86]

Ishiba resigns

Shigeru Ishiba announces resignation as Prime Minister 1 (crop).jpg

"Now that negotiations on U.S. tariff measures have reached a conclusion, I believe this is the appropriate time to step aside and make way for the next generation."

Shigeru Ishiba, 7 September 2025 [87]
The Press Conference in which Ishiba resigned as PM

On 7 September, Shigeru Ishiba announced that he would resign as President of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan. [88] [89] [90] The Japan Times reported that pressure from Suga, and Koizumi in particular, was key in Ishiba's decision, as the latter "urged" him to quit after staying at the official residence for about 2 hours (Suga had only stayed for 30 minutes). [91] [92] At a press conference at the Prime Minister's Office, Ishiba stated he sought to claim "responsibility" as party leader for losses in recent elections, and to avoid dividing the party. [93] Ishiba's announcement effectively cancelled the emergency election process entirely. He instead instructed Moriyama, whose resignation had not been accepted by Ishiba, to begin the process to hold an extraordinary presidential election. [94] Ishiba said he determined now was the "appropriate time" to step aside, after a written version of the Japan–U.S. tariff agreement had been finalized. [95] In his exit speech, Ishiba touted various accomplishments; 67 out of 68 bills submitted by the government had been passed by the Diet (in part thanks to opposition parties). [96] Ishiba said strides were made in improving the work conditions of JSDF personnel. He also said he felt confident in his foreign policy, citing successful meetings with US President Donald Trump, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. [97] Ishiba said he was "filled with deep regret" that he was unable to meet the expectations of the Japanese people. [98] Ishiba stated he felt his biggest regret in particular was failing to address public distrust in politics, citing the continuing impact of the slush funds scandal.Ishiba said he was concerned that the LDP was losing the public's trust, which could lead to Japan falling into populism. He urged the party to "restart from scratch" in order to change the public perception that the party had not changed at all. [99] Ishiba promised to continue serving as Prime Minister until a new leader was elected, and did not endorse a candidate in the subsequent election. His tenure lasted about one year. [87]

Campaign

Race begins to take shape

Sanae Takaichi 2025.jpg
Shinjiro Koizumi 2025.jpg
Shortly after the resignation announcement of Shigeru Ishiba, polling and media reports found former presidential candidates Sanae Takaichi and Shinjiro Koizumi as the frontrunners of the election [100] [101]

Sanae Takaichi, Shinjiro Koizumi, and Yoshimasa Hayashi were seen as potential candidates by Nikkei Asia upon Ishiba's resignation, with Takaichi and Koizumi being called early frontrunners. [100] All three had run in the previous presidential election, and while Takaichi had served as Economic Security Minister under Fumio Kishida, Koizumi and Hayashi were serving members of the cabinet, as Agriculture Minister and Chief Cabinet Secretary, respectively. [102] Among the general public, opinion polls showed Koizumi and Takaichi were deadlocked at 19.3% each. [101] President magazine predicted that a dark-horse candidate, beyond Koizumi and Takaichi, could emerge in the race to rebuild the party from scratch. [103]

On 8 September, the race began to take shape. [104] Ishiba clarified that he had “no problems” with cabinet ministers seeking the presidency, and would not attempt to block anyone from doing so. [105] Ishiba later implied he thought Koizumi, with whom he held similar policy beliefs, was a suitable successor. [106] The day following the resignation announcement, Takayuki Kobayashi told reporters he would discuss possibly running in the election with colleagues, before making a decision, but hinted at party unity being a theme of his potential campaign. [107] [108] The same day, Toshimitsu Motegi announced to reporters that he would be running in the leadership election. The former party Secretary-General became the first to throw his hat in the ring. [109] He said he was “convinced” he would be able to gather the 20 signatures necessary to officially run. Later that morning, it was reported that Hayashi planned to announce his campaign. He said he wanted to consult with some of his colleagues before making the decision. [110] The party's Yamaguchi Prefecture branch reportedly urged Hayashi to run. [111] After conveying his intention to former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who supported Hayashi in his last leadership bid, Hayashi solidified his intentions to run. [112] [113] [114] The Sankei Shimbun reported the same day that Takaichi was preparing a campaign of her own, and was beginning to gather endorsements from party members. [115]

First campaign announcements

Motegi Toshimitsu at the U.S. Department of State in Washington, D.C., on May 2, 2023 - 52864781962 (cropped).jpg
Takayuki Kobayashi 2023 (cropped).jpg
Toshimitsu Motegi and Takayuki Kobayashi were among the first to declare their candidacies

As the LDP was leading a minority government in the lower house, the party president's relationship with opposition parties, including potential coalition partners, was a factor in the election. [116] [117] The Komeito, a coalition partner of the LDP since Shinzo Abe began his second premiership in 2012, warned the LDP against deviating from "conservative centrism”. [118] According to the Yomiuri Shimbun , Hayashi and Koizumi had maintained good relations with Ishin no Kai, which had been flirting with the idea a coalition with the LDP since the Upper House elections. [119] [120] Koizumi met with Ishin leader Hirofumi Yoshimura in August while Hayashi met with former Ishin leader Nobuyuki Baba on 8 September. [121] [122] Motegi was said to have good relations with the Democratic Party For the People (DPFP), while Takaichi had ideological similarities with Sanseito. [120] Sankei claimed that senior members of Komeito's leadership threatened to leave the coalition with the LDP if Takaichi succeeded Ishiba. [123] As with the past election, party bosses influenced the election. In early September, former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, urged the party to use the leadership selection as an opportunity to position it a moderate center-right conservative party. [124] Later that month, it was reported that former Prime Minister Tarō Asō was considering Koizumi as his top choice. [125]

After surging in latest polling numbers, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi declared his candidacy on 16 September Yoshimasa Hayashi in 2025.jpg
After surging in latest polling numbers, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi declared his candidacy on 16 September

On 10 September, Motegi held a press conference, during which he said he would seek to expand the current government coalition in order to achieve government stability. Not unlike Koizumi, Motegi stated his opposition to banning corporations from making donations, and also said he would try to reduce the number of foreign workers in Japan overtime. [127] That same day, it was reported Kobayashi had finalized his plans to run. [128] Kobayashi held a press conference the next day announcing that he would run for the party presidency in his second leadership bid. [129] After a meeting with the DPFP's Kazuya Shimba, Koizumi reportedly laughed when he was asked by the former if he would run. [130] The following day, Representative Hitoshi Kikawada told NHK that Takaichi would run. [131] Motegi's campaign meanwhile announced support for tax cuts to stimulate economic growth. [132] As momentum from his home Kanagawa Prefecture grew for Koizumi to run, he said he would make a final decision after meeting with local supporters. [133] By 12 September, Hayashi's poll numbers had begun to rise as Takaichi and Koizumi continued to compete for first place among said polls. [126] The next day, Koizumi met with supporters, informing them he would stand in the election. [134] On 15 September, Finance Minister and former presidential candidate Katsunobu Katō opted against running in the election and endorsed Koizumi. [135]

On 16 September, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi declared his candidacy, having previously finished in fourth place in 2024. [136] That same day, Minister Koizumi announced his candidacy as well. [137] On 18 September, former Minister Takaichi announced her candidacy. [138] Hours later, former Digital Minister Taro Kono announced his decision not to run and endorsed Koizumi for president. [139]

Schedule

On 4 September 2025, it was reported that 4 October could be a possible date for a presidential election. [140] TBS News speculated that campaigning would begin on 22 September. [4] Both dates were formally confirmed by the LDP General Council on 9 September. In the same announcement, party members were asked to vote by 3 October, with results being finalized on 4 October. [141]

Timetable

DateEvent
7 SeptemberIncumbent LDP President Shigeru Ishiba announces he will resign as party leader, seeking to take responsibility for the LDP losing its majority in the lower house elections held the previous year, and upper house elections held earlier that July. [88]
8 SeptemberFormer LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi tells reporters he will run for party president, making him the first candidate to declare. [142] It is reported that Yoshimasa Hayashi, the Chief Cabinet Secretary, plans to run as well, after he had consulted with colleagues earlier that morning. [143] Later that day, it was reported former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi would seek the presidency. [115]
9 SeptemberThe LDP General Council confirms that official campaigning will begin on 22 September, with the election date being set for 4 October. [141]
11 SeptemberRepresentative Takayuki Kobayashi announces his intention to run for party president in his second leadership bid, having previously finished in fifth place in 2024. [129]
13 SeptemberAgriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, who came in third place in the previous leadership election, tells supporters he plans to run in the election. [134]
15 SeptemberFinance Minister Katsunobu Katō announces he will not run in the election and endorsed Koizumi for president. [135]
16 SeptemberChief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi announces his intention to run for party president in his second leadership bid, having previously finished in fourth place in 2024. [136] Agriculture Minister Shinjirō Koizumi announces his intention to run for party president in his third leadership bid, having previously finished in third place in 2024. [137]
18 SeptemberFormer Economic Securities Minister Sanae Takaichi announces her candidacy for LDP president. [138] Former Digital Minister Taro Kono also announces that he will not run in the election and endorsed Koizumi's candidacy. [139]

Candidates

Declared

The following candidates have officially declared their candidacies for the leadership:

Candidate(s)Date of birthCurrent positionParty faction Electoral district Reference(s)
Yoshimasa Hayashi 20211118 (cropped).jpg
Yoshimasa Hayashi 		19 January 1961
(age 64)		 Chief Cabinet Secretary
(since 2023)
Member of the House of Representatives
(since 2021)
Previous offices held
None
(former Kōchikai)
Flag of Yamaguchi Prefecture.svg
Yamaguchi 3rd 		[136]
Takayuki Kobayashi 20171218 (cropped).jpg
Takayuki Kobayashi 		29 November 1974
(age 50)		Member of the House of Representatives
(since 2012)
Previous offices held
  • Minister of State for Economic Security (2021–2022)
None
(former Shisuikai)
Flag of Chiba Prefecture.svg
Chiba 2nd 		[129]
Shinjiro Koizumi 20250521 (cropped).jpg
Shinjirō Koizumi 		14 April 1981
(age 44)		 Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (since 2025)
Member of the House of Representatives
(since 2009)
Previous offices held
None
Flag of Kanagawa Prefecture.svg
Kanagawa 11th district 		[137]
Shigeru Ishiba and Sanae Takaichi 20241211 (cropped).jpg
Sanae Takaichi 		7 March 1961
(age 64)		Member of the House of Representatives
(1993–2003; since 2005)
Previous offices held
  • Minister of State for Economic Security (2022–2024)
  • Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications (2014–2017; 2019–2020)
None
(former Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai)
Flag of Nara Prefecture.svg
Nara 2nd district 		[138]
Toshimitsu Motegi 2024.jpg
Toshimitsu Motegi 		7 October 1955
(age 69)		Member of the House of Representatives
(since 1993)
Previous offices held
None
(former Heisei Kenkyūkai)
Flag of Tochigi Prefecture.svg
Tochigi 5th district 		[109] [144]

Declined

Pre-election endorsements

Endorsements of Yoshimasa Hayashi
Cabinet-level officials
  • Gen Nakatani (Minister of Defense, 2024–present; Member of the House of Representatives, 1990–present) [152]
  • Tadahiko Ito, Minister of Reconstruction, 2024–present; Member of the House of Representatives (2012–present) [153]
Members of the National Diet
Endorsements of Shinjiro Koizumi
Cabinet-level officials
  • Katsunobu Katō (Minister of Finance, 2024–present); Chief Cabinet Secretary, 2020–2021; Member of the House of Representatives, 2003–present) [135]
  • Taro Kono, Minister for Digital Transformation (2022–2024); Minister for Foreign Affairs (2017–2019); Member of the House of Representatives (1996–present) [139]
  • Keisuke Suzuki, Minister of Justice (2024–present); Member of the House of Representatives (2012–present) [153]
Members of the National Diet
Prefectural governors
  • Ichita Yamamoto (Governor of Gumna Prefecture, 2019–present; Member of the House of Councillors, 1995–2019)) [156]
Endorsements of Toshimitsu Motegi
Prefectural governors

Opinion polls

Polling

(Figures in parentheses are approval ratings of Liberal Democratic Party supporters)

Fieldwork datePolling firmSample size Sanae
Takaichi 		Shinjirō
Koizumi 		Yoshimasa
Hayashi 		Takayuki
Kobayashi 		Toshimitsu
Motegi 		Yōko
Kamikawa 		Taro
Kono 		Katsunobu
Katō 		OthersNOT/
UD/NA
18 SepFormer Minister for Digital Transformation Taro Kono declines to run in the election and endorses Koizumi's candidacy. [139]
15 SepFinance Minister Katsunobu Katō declines to run in the election and endorses Koizumi's candidacy. [135]
12–15 SepJiji Press [158] 1,162
(199)		21
(19.7)		23.8
(31.8)		5.9
(7.6)		3.1
(3.5)		5.9
(11.1)		1.42.80.9–35.2
(26.3)
13–14 SepYomiuri/NNN [159] [160] 1,0432925637271022 [a]
11–12 SepKyodo News [148] 1,040
(245)		28
(15.7)		22.5
(36)		11.4
(14.9)		3.6
(2.8)		6.1
(8.6)		3.8
(2.7)		6.1
(7.3)		0.4
(0.7)		0.317.8
(11.3)

Hypothetical polling

The following polls feature Shigeru Ishiba in a hypothetical snap Liberal Democratic Party presidential election, before his decision to resign.

Hypothetical polling with Shigeru Ishiba as a candidate
Fieldwork datePolling firmSample size Shigeru
Ishiba 		Sanae
Takaichi 		Shinjirō
Koizumi 		Yoshimasa
Hayashi 		Takayuki
Kobayashi 		Toshimitsu
Motegi 		Yōko
Kamikawa 		Taro
Kono 		Katsunobu
Katō 		OthersNOT/
UD/NA
6–7 SepKyodo News [149] 1,0459.926.719.443.44.34.48.31.30.218.1
6–7 SepJNN [150] 1,0308.619.319.32.20.90.91.84.90.629.4 [b] 12.1
29–31 AugNikkei/TV Tokyo [161] [162] 95582322431–4–15 [c] 20
23–24 AugSankei/FNN [163] [164] 1,022
(227)		14.4
(29)		23
(17)		20.9
(24.9)		2.71.81.21.65.10.32.3 [d] 26.7
(29.1)
23–24 AugANN [165] 1,012522275212611613
23–24 AugMainichi/SSRC [166] 2,0462114922––––12 [e] 40
23–24 AugKyodo News [167] 1,05613.124.520.14.94.23.32.89.41.40.216.1
22–24 AugYomiuri/NNN [168] [169] 9911424212411611 [f] 23 [g]
16–17 AugSenkyo.com/JX [170] 1,00028.917.315.95.92.50.7–2.30.17.119.3
8–11 AugJiji Press [171] 1,138
(179)		11.3
(24.6)		15.9
(19.6)		14.6
(21.2)		2.1–––3.3–8.5 [h] 44.3
(34.6)
2–3 AugJNN [172] 1,00311.116.720.43.41.71.12.35.20.826.8 [i] 10.5
26–27 JulSankei/FNN [173] [174] 1,0309.422.4164.11.511.84.10.612.2 [j] 26.9 [k]
26–27 JulANN [175] 1,0201320235421601016
26–27 JulMainichi/SSRC [176] 2,0452015822––––16 [l] 37 [m]
25–27 JulNikkei/TV Tokyo [177] [178] 93762020522–4–20 [n] 21
21–22 JulYomiuri/NNN [179] [180] 1,043826222322712 [o] 25 [p]
14–15 JunSankei/FNN [181] [182] 1,0277.916.420.72.41.31.214.20.411.1 [q] 33.4 [r]
14–15 JunSenkyo.com/JX [183] 99015.415.619.96–––2.5–23.1 [s] 17.6
24–25 MayKyodo News [184] 1,0647.321.515.92.631.14.65.11.415.8 [t] 21.7
17–18 MaySankei/FNN [185] [186] 1,0257.718.915.21.51.91.924.60.412 [u] 33.8 [v]

Notes

  1. ↑ None of these: 14%; Don't know: 8%
  2. ↑ Yoshihiko Noda (CDP): 3.2%; Fumitake Fujita (Ishin): 0.1%; Yuichiro Tamaki (DPFP): 5.8%; Others: 20.3%
  3. ↑ Fumio Kishida (LDP): 2%; Yoshihiko Noda (CDP): 4%; Yuichiro Tamaki (DPFP): 7%; Others: 2%
  4. ↑ Fumio Kishida (LDP): 2.3%
  5. ↑ Fumio Kishida (LDP): 2%; Yoshihiko Noda (CDP): 4%; Yuichiro Tamaki (DPFP): 6%
  6. ↑ Fumio Kishida (LDP): 1%
  7. ↑ None of these: 14%; Don't know: 9%
  8. ↑ Yoshihiko Noda (CDP): 2.8%; Yuichiro Tamaki (DPFP): 5.7%
  9. ↑ Yoshihiko Noda (CDP): 3.8%; Seiji Maehara (Ishin): 0.5%; Yuichiro Tamaki (DPFP): 4.4%; Others: 18.1%
  10. ↑ Yoshihiko Noda (CDP): 4.2%; Seiji Maehara (Ishin): 1.2%; Yuichiro Tamaki (DPFP): 6.8%
  11. ↑ None of these: 21.2%; Don't know: 5.7%
  12. ↑ Fumio Kishida (LDP): 3%; Yoshihiko Noda (CDP): 5%; Yuichiro Tamaki (DPFP): 8%
  13. ↑ Don't know: 31%; No answer: 6%
  14. ↑ Fumio Kishida (LDP): 3%; Shun'ichi Suzuki (LDP): 1%; Ken Saitō (LDP): 1%; Yoshihiko Noda (CDP): 5%; Seiji Maehara (Ishin): 1%; Yuichiro Tamaki (DPFP): 9%
  15. ↑ Fumio Kishida (LDP): 2%
  16. ↑ None of these: 14%; Don't know: 11%
  17. ↑ Yoshihiko Noda (CDP): 6.8%; Seiji Maehara (Ishin): 0.2%; Yuichiro Tamaki (DPFP): 4.1%
  18. ↑ None of these: 25%; Don't know: 8.4%
  19. ↑ Yoshihiko Noda (CDP): 6.5%; Seiji Maehara (Ishin): 1%; Yuichiro Tamaki (DPFP): 2.5%; Others: 13.1%
  20. ↑ Yoshihiko Noda (CDP): 5.4%; Seiji Maehara (Ishin): 0.5%; Yuichiro Tamaki (DPFP): 9.3%; Others: 0.6%
  21. ↑ Yoshihiko Noda (CDP): 5.5%; Seiji Maehara (Ishin): 0.6%; Yuichiro Tamaki (DPFP): 5.9%
  22. ↑ None of these: 27.6%; Don't know: 6.2%

References

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  170. ↑ 国民民主党や参政党など新興政党の勢い止まらず！参院選後初の電話×ネット意識調査結果は？ [The momentum of new political parties such as the Democratic Party for the People and the Party for the People continues unabated! What are the results of the first telephone and online opinion survey since the House of Councillors election?]. Senkyo.com (in Japanese). 19 August 2025. Retrieved 19 August 2025.
  171. ↑ 「次期首相」高市氏トップ　自民支持層では石破氏―時事世論調査 [Takaichi tops the list of candidates for next prime minister, while Ishiba is the top choice among LDP supporters - Jiji poll]. Jiji Press (in Japanese). 14 August 2025. Archived from the original on 14 August 2025. Retrieved 14 August 2025.
  172. ↑ 石破総理「辞任する必要ない」47%で「辞任すべき」を上回る　JNN世論調査 [JNN poll: 47% say Prime Minister Ishiba "doesn't need to resign," surpassing those who say he "should resign"]. Japan News Network (in Japanese). 3 August 2025. Archived from the original on 3 August 2025. Retrieved 3 August 2025.
  173. ↑ 与党の衆参過半数割れ「よかった」60・4％　世論調査の設問と回答（7月26～27日） [60.4% are "relieved" that ruling party loses majority in House of Representatives and House of Councillors: Questions and answers in opinion poll (July 26–27)]. Sankei Shimbun (in Japanese). 28 July 2025. Archived from the original on 28 July 2025. Retrieved 28 July 2025.
  174. ↑ 内閣支持率34.6％で首相辞任すべき47.7％・しなくてよい44.2％　次の首相は高市氏・小泉氏・石破氏　国民・参政支持率が立憲上回る【FNN世論調査】 [Cabinet approval rating 34.6%, 47.7% say the Prime Minister should resign, 44.2% say he doesn't need to, next Prime Minister Takaichi, Koizumi, Ishiba, approval rating of the People's Democratic Party and the Democratic Party of Japan exceeds that of the Constitutional Democratic Party [FNN opinion poll]]. Fuji News Network (in Japanese). 28 July 2025. Archived from the original on 19 August 2025. Retrieved 28 July 2025.
  175. ↑ 2025年7月調査 [July 2025 survey]. TV Asahi (in Japanese). 28 July 2025. Archived from the original on 12 September 2025. Retrieved 28 July 2025.
  176. ↑ 毎日新聞世論調査　質問と回答 [Mainichi Shimbun opinion poll questions and answers]. Mainichi Shimbun (in Japanese). 27 July 2025. Archived from the original on 30 July 2025. Retrieved 27 July 2025.
  177. ↑ 内閣支持率32%、石破政権で過去最低　「首相直ちに交代を」36% 日経世論調査 [Cabinet approval rating at 32%, lowest ever for Ishiba administration; 36% say "Prime Minister should be replaced immediately" - Nikkei opinion poll]. The Nikkei (in Japanese). 27 July 2025. Archived from the original on 27 July 2025. Retrieved 27 July 2025.
  178. ↑ 石破内閣支持32％で発足後最低を更新　日米関税交渉「評価」47％ テレ東・日経　7月世論調査 [Approval for Ishiba Cabinet hits lowest since inauguration at 32%; Japan-US tariff negotiations "approved" by 47% - TV Tokyo/Nikkei July opinion poll]. TV Tokyo (in Japanese). 27 July 2025. Archived from the original on 30 August 2025. Retrieved 27 July 2025.
  179. ↑ ２０２５年７月　電話全国世論調査（参院選後）　質問と回答 [July 2025 Nationwide Telephone Opinion Poll (After the House of Councillors Election) Questions and Answers]. Yomiuri Shimbun (in Japanese). 23 July 2025. Archived from the original on 30 July 2025. Retrieved 23 July 2025.
  180. ↑ 「石破首相は辞任するべき」54％　参院選の結果受け【NNN・読売新聞　緊急世論調査】 ["Prime Minister Ishiba should resign" - 54% in response to House of Councillors election results [NNN/Yomiuri Shimbun emergency opinion poll]]. Nippon News Network (in Japanese). 22 July 2025. Archived from the original on 22 July 2025. Retrieved 23 July 2025.
  181. ↑ 石破内閣「支持する」38・2％　世論調査の設問と回答（6月14～15日） [38.2% "support" the Ishiba Cabinet: Questions and answers in opinion poll (June 14–15)]. Sankei Shimbun (in Japanese). 16 June 2025. Archived from the original on 16 June 2025. Retrieved 16 June 2025.
  182. ↑ 石破内閣支持率38.2％で先月比5ポイント急上昇　小泉農水相の政府備蓄米放出「評価する」が7割【FNN世論調査】 [Approval rating for the Ishiba Cabinet jumps 5 points from last month to 38.2%; 70% approve of Agriculture Minister Koizumi's release of government rice stockpiles [FNN poll]]. Fuji News Network (in Japanese). 16 June 2025. Archived from the original on 16 June 2025. Retrieved 16 June 2025.
  183. ↑ 【速報】国民民主党の支持率が電話・ネット調査ともに下落！自民・内閣支持率は回復！2025年6月電話×ネット意識調査 [[Breaking News] Support for the Democratic Party for the People drops in both telephone and online surveys! Support for the Liberal Democratic Party and Cabinet recovers! June 2025 telephone and online opinion survey]. Senkyo.com (in Japanese). 17 June 2025. Retrieved 17 June 2025.
  184. ↑ 2025年5月世論調査（緊急）（共同通信データ） [May 2025 Public Opinion Poll (Emergency) (Kyodo News data)]. Chunichi Shimbun (in Japanese). 26 May 2025. Archived from the original on 6 June 2025. Retrieved 26 May 2025.
  185. ↑ 世論調査の質問と回答（5月17～18日） [Poll Questions and Answers (May 17–18)]. Sankei Shimbun (in Japanese). 19 May 2025. Archived from the original on 21 May 2025. Retrieved 19 May 2025.
  186. ↑ 石破内閣支持率32.9%横ばい、消費税の減税・廃止を7割超、“次の首相”は高市早苗氏・小泉進次郎氏ら【FNN世論調査5月】 [Approval rating for Ishiba Cabinet remains stable at 32.9%, over 70% in favor of reducing or abolishing the consumption tax, Takaichi Sanae, Koizumi Shinjiro, and others selected as "next prime minister" [FNN opinion poll, May]]. Fuji News Network (in Japanese). 19 May 2025. Archived from the original on 3 June 2025. Retrieved 19 May 2025.
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