The 2024 Japanese general election and 2025 Japanese House of Councillors election both resulted in the loss of majorities for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito governing coalition under Prime Minister Ishiba.[3][4] After both elections, Ishiba invoked a parliamentary plurality in both houses, and believed the LDP had a responsibility to lead the government, as it would in most other parliamentary democracies.[5] Pressure continued to mount on Ishiba to resign as the LDP president, but he refused and said he planned to continue serving as Prime Minister.[6]
On 7 September, Ishiba announced that he would resign as president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan.[7][8][9] Ishiba stated he sought to claim "responsibility" as party leader for losses in recent elections, and to avoid dividing the party.[10] Ishiba's announcement effectively cancelled the emergency election process entirely. He instead instructed Moriyama, whose resignation had not been accepted by Ishiba, to begin the process to hold an extraordinary presidential election.[11] Ishiba said he determined now was the "appropriate time" to step aside, after a written version of the Japan–U.S. tariff agreement had been finalized.[12] Ishiba promised to continue serving as Prime Minister until a new leader was elected, and did not endorse a candidate in the subsequent election. His tenure lasted about one year.[13] In the LDP leadership election on 5 October, Takaichi was elected as the LDP's first woman president. In her first acts as party president, Takaichi appointed Tarō Asō as vice president and Shun'ichi Suzuki as secretary-general of the LDP.[14]
LDP–JIP coalition formation in premiership of Sanae Takaichi
On 10 October, Komeito chief representative Tetsuo Saito announced that it would leave the ruling coalition, over disagreements with Takaichi's leadership and the party's handling of the 2023–2024 Japanese slush fund scandal, ending 26 years of the LDP–Komeito coalition.[15] Following this, the vote to confirm Takaichi as prime minister was delayed to 20 October.[15]On 20 October, Takaichi and the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) leader Hirofumi Yoshimura agreed to sign a confidence and supply agreement. Takaichi was elected prime minister by the Diet on 21 October, with the support of Ishin and independents.[16]
Reports of a general election
The press conference where Takaichi announced her intention to hold an early general election.
On 13 January 2026, it emerged that Takaichi had communicated her intention to dissolve the House of Representatives when it re-convened on 23 January to senior LDP officials.[17][18][19][20] Subsequently, the LDP instructed its prefectural chapters to register general election candidates by 19 January.[21] Japanese national broadcaster NHK reported that the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications had instructed prefectural election boards to prepare for a general election.[22]
Takaichi is reportedly considering 27 January as the start of campaigning with 8 February as the date for the election.[23] In response to an apparently leaked LDP projection of the results of an election, LDP officials said that "260 seats seems like too much in reality", and that "within the party, it's assumed that at least a single majority of 233 seats will be won".[24] On 19 January, Takaichi officially announced her intention to dissolve the House of Representatives on 23 January to a press conference.[25]
In response to the reports of an imminent election, the CDP considered forming a new political alliance with opposition parties to run a single proportional representation list against the LDP, potentially including Komeito, who previously had a 26-year alliance with the governing LDP.[26] The CDP also instructed its prefectural chapters to meet with Komeito's local organisations, and Diet members to seek electoral cooperation.[27] On 14 January, it was found that the cooperation between the CDP and Komeito had begun with view to a merger of the two parties.[28] The merged party would caucus separately in the House of Councillors, but operate as a single party in the House of Representatives, with current CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda and Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito serving as co-leaders.[29] The merged party's proposed name was Chūdō Kaikaku (中道改革; Centrist Reform),[30][31] before its official name was finalised as Chūdō Kaikaku Rengō (中道改革連合; lit. Centrist Reform Alliance).[32] Saito said that Noda would be named prime minister if the Centrist Reform Alliance won the election.[33]
Komeito also announced it would not contest any constituency seats in favour of running in the proportional blocks.[34]Jiji Press created a model of the constituency seats which projected that the LDP would win 97 constituency seats and the CDP would win 139 with the results of the 2024 election.[35]Nippon Television projected that, with a hypothetical CDP–Komeito merger, the LDP would retain just 60 of its 132 single member districts with the 2024 election.[36]
Electoral system
The 465 seats of the House of Representatives are contested via parallel voting. Of these, 289 members are elected in single-member constituencies using first-past-the-post voting, while 176 members are elected in 11 multi-member constituencies via party list proportional representation. Candidates from parties with legal political party-list, which requires either ≥5 Diet members or ≥1 Diet member and ≥2% of the nationwide vote in one tier of a recent national election, are allowed to stand in a constituency and be present on the party list. If they lose their constituency vote, they may still be elected in the proportionally allocated seats; however, if such a dual candidate wins less than 10% of the vote in their majoritarian constituency, they are also disqualified as a proportional candidate.[37]
Takaichi announced her intention to call a general election on 19 January, planning to dissolve the House of Representatives on 23 January. The snap election was seen as a power move to boost her party's mandate.[38] This set the campaign period as taking place from 27 January until election day on 8 February.[25] Ishin said that there would not be electoral cooperation with the LDP, with Yoshimura saying Ishin "should just fight the election".[39] The reports of an election prompted both Yoshimura (the governor of Osaka Prefecture) and Hideyuki Yokoyama (mayor of Osaka) to resign from their posts with the aim of running for re-election alongside the general election, as well as to seek endorsement of the Osaka Metropolis Plan.[40]Sanseitō leader Sohei Kamiya said that the party plans to field candidates in LDP constituencies where the incumbent has "advocated multicultural coexistence".[41] The LDP are campaigning on their promises of increased spending, tax cuts and a new security strategy.[42]
↑Of the 19 independents, four are in government through caucusing with the LDP, while fifteen are in the opposition (four in Yūshi no Kai, three in Genzei Nippon, and not eight in any caucus).
↑"首相、通常国会冒頭で解散の意向 衆院選、自民幹部に伝達"[Prime Minister conveys intention to dissolve Diet at start of regular session ahead of Lower House election to LDP officials]. 47NEWS (in Japanese). Archived from the original on 14 January 2026. Retrieved 13 January 2026.
↑"【速報】自民党は衆院選公認予定候補者を１９日までに申請するよう都道府県連に通知した：時事ドットコム"[[Breaking News] The Liberal Democratic Party has notified prefectural chapters to submit candidates for the House of Representatives election by the 19th]. 時事ドットコム (in Japanese). 13 January 2026. Archived from the original on 13 January 2026. Retrieved 13 January 2026.
↑"立憲民主と公明、新党結成を視野に調整 15日に両党幹部が協議へ：朝日新聞"[Constitutional democracy, Komeito, and coordination with a view to the formation of a new party: On the 15th, the leaders of the two parties will discuss]. 朝日新聞 (in Japanese). 14 January 2026. Archived from the original on 14 January 2026. Retrieved 14 January 2026.
↑"立憲と公明が新党結成へ調整 野田・斉藤共同代表案も 15日議員総会"[Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito to form new party; Noda and Saito to co-representatives proposed at general assembly on 15th]. 毎日新聞 (in Japanese). Archived from the original on 14 January 2026. Retrieved 14 January 2026.
↑"「『一体どういうことなのか』と憤りの打電」立憲民主党、公明党が新党「中道改革」に向けて調整に 政権交代を想定する声もあるが、新党側も一枚岩ではなさそう"["WTF is it?!" Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Komeito to coordinate for the new party "Centrist Reform Alliance" Some people assume regime change, but the new party side also does not seem to be monolithic!]. Togetter [トゥギャッター] (in Japanese). 15 January 2026. Archived from the original on 19 January 2026. Retrieved 15 January 2026.
↑"【詳報】立憲民主と公明、新党結成で合意 党名は「中道改革」で調整：朝日新聞"[[Full report] Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito agree to form new party; party name to be decided as "Centrist Reform"]. 朝日新聞 (in Japanese). 15 January 2026. Archived from the original on 15 January 2026. Retrieved 15 January 2026.
↑"速報". テレ朝NEWS (in Japanese). Archived from the original on 16 January 2026. Retrieved 16 January 2026.
↑慎平, 奥原 (14 January 2026). "参政・神谷氏、多文化共生掲げる自民議員には「候補者たてる」 目標は「30～40」議席"[Councillor Kamiya: "We will field candidates" for LDP lawmakers who advocate multicultural coexistence, aiming for "30-40" seats]. 産経新聞：産経ニュース (in Japanese). Archived from the original on 14 January 2026. Retrieved 14 January 2026.
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