SpaceX Mars colonization program

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Elon Musk at the 2006 Mars Society conference. Before founding SpaceX in 2002, Musk had expressed interest in Mars missions and briefly joined the Mars Society's board of directors. Elon Musk at MSC 2006.jpg
Elon Musk at the 2006 Mars Society conference. Before founding SpaceX in 2002, Musk had expressed interest in Mars missions and briefly joined the Mars Society's board of directors.

SpaceX Mars colonization program (colloquially also referred to as Occupy Mars) [1] is a planned objective of the company SpaceX and particularly of its founder Elon Musk to colonize Mars. The main element of this ambition is the plan to establish a self-sustained large scale settlement and colony on Mars, claiming self-determination under direct democracy. The main motivation behind this is the belief that the colonization of Mars allows humanity to become multiplanetary and therefore secures the long-term survival of the human species in case of Earth being rid of human life. [2]

Contents

Colonization is to be achieved via the development and use of reusable and mass-produced super heavy-lift launch vehicles called Starship. Starship has been referred to as the "holy grail of rocketry" for extraplanetary colonization. [3]

These plans for colonization have garnered both praise and criticism, being supported as a result of public excitement for further human involvement beyond Earth and a desire to prefer human longevity, and being questioned for its existential perspective, execution, livability and legality. [3]

History

Elon Musk, founder of SpaceX, has engaged in space advocacy relating to the colonization of Mars since at least 2001 at the Mars Society. [4] : 30–31 

As early as 2007, Elon Musk publicly stated a personal goal of eventually enabling human exploration and settlement of Mars. [5]

Subsequently, SpaceX has stated its goal is to colonize Mars to ensure the long-term survival of the human species, [6] proposing since the 2000s and early 2010s different concepts for reaching Mars, including space tugs.

Red Dragon

Artist's conception of two Red Dragon capsules on Mars, next to an outpost SpaceX Dragon Capsule on Mars (18053607180).jpg
Artist's conception of two Red Dragon capsules on Mars, next to an outpost

Red Dragon was a 2011–2017 concept mission which would have used a modified Dragon 2 spacecraft as a low-cost Mars lander. If flown, it would have been launched on a Falcon Heavy, and land solely via the use of its SuperDraco retro-propulsion thrusters, [7] as parachutes would have required significant vehicle modifications. [8]

In 2011, SpaceX planned on proposing Red Dragon for the Discovery Mission #13, which would launch in 2022, [9] [10] [11] but it was not submitted. It was then proposed in 2014 as a low-cost way for NASA to achieve a Mars sample return by 2021. In the concept, the Red Dragon capsule would be equipped with the system needed to return samples gathered on Mars. NASA did not fund this concept.

In 2016, SpaceX planned on launching two Red Dragon vehicles [12] in 2018, [13] [14] with NASA providing technical support instead of funding. [15] However, in 2017, Red Dragon was cancelled, in favor of the much larger Starship spacecraft. [16]

Starship

SpaceX rendering of the Interplanetary Transport System approaching Mars Interplanetary Transport System (29343823914).jpg
SpaceX rendering of the Interplanetary Transport System approaching Mars

The company's current plan was first formally proposed at the 2016 International Astronautical Congress alongside a fully-reusable launch vehicle, the Interplanetary Transport System. Since then, the launch vehicle was renamed to "Starship", and has been in development since.

The development program reached multiple milestones in 2024 such as on its third test flight, it reached its desired trajectory for the first time and on its fourth flight test, both stages of the vehicle achieved controlled splashdown after launch for the first time.

On 7 September 2024, SpaceX announced that it would launch the first uncrewed Starship missions to Mars in two years, aligning with the next Earth-Mars transfer window. Elon Musk shared on the social media platform X that these missions would focus on testing the reliability of landing Starships intact on Mars. SpaceX plans to launch five uncrewed Starships to Mars during that transfer window. [17] If successful, the company plans to begin crewed flights to Mars in about four years. [18]

Composition

Goals

As early as 2007, Elon Musk stated a personal goal of eventually enabling human exploration and settlement of Mars. [5]

SpaceX has stated its goal is to colonize Mars to ensure the long-term survival of the human species by becoming multiplanetary. [6]

Launch system

SpaceX super heavy-lift launch vehicle Starship assembly at its launch facility called Starbase on the Boca Chica (Texas) peninsula in the Rio Grande delta at the Gulf of Mexico Starbase.jpg
SpaceX super heavy-lift launch vehicle Starship assembly at its launch facility called Starbase on the Boca Chica (Texas) peninsula in the Rio Grande delta at the Gulf of Mexico

SpaceX has been setting up since 2014 a facility called Starbase and more recently a factory called Starfactory on the previously populated and wildlife area Boca Chica (Texas) peninsula in the Rio Grande delta at the Gulf of Mexico, [19] partly justified by SpaceX with its colonial perspective, [20] to launch and build an in development fully reusable super heavy-lift launch vehicle with the name Starship . Aiming with its reusability to drastically reduce launch costs and scaled construction and swift maintenance between flights, [21] : 2  this has been the basis for SpaceX to advance its Mars ambitions and when operational will allow it to provide the necessary transportation capabilities for its colonial goals. The reusability and its resulting reduced launch costs is expected to expand space access to more payloads and entities. [22]

Musk has stated that a Starship orbital launch could eventually cost $2 million, starting at $10 million within 2–3 years and dropping with time. [23] Starfactory is at the same time planned to produce at peak one Starship per day. [24]

The rocket consists of a Super Heavy first stage booster and a Starship second stage spacecraft, [25] powered by Raptor and Raptor Vacuum engines. [26] Both stages are made from stainless steel. [27]

Methane was chosen for the Raptor engines because it is relatively inexpensive, produces a low amount of soot as compared to other hydrocarbons, [28] and can be created on Mars from carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and hydrogen via the Sabatier reaction. [29] The engine family uses a new alloy for the main combustion chamber, allowing it to contain 300 bar (4,400 psi) of pressure, the highest of all current engines. [28] In the future, it may be mass-produced [28] and cost about $230,000 per engine or $100 per kilonewton. [30]

First missions

A scene of astronauts on Mars in the 2016 IAC presentation Interplanetary Transport System (29343825184).jpg
A scene of astronauts on Mars in the 2016 IAC presentation

Musk has made statements on several occasions about aspirational dates for Starship's earliest possible Mars landing, [31] including in 2022, that a crewed mission to Mars could take place no earlier than 2029. [32]

SpaceX's early missions to Mars are to involve small fleets of Starship spacecraft, funded by public–private partnerships. [33]

SpaceX has stated on several occasions aspirational plans to build a crewed base on Mars for an extended surface presence, which it hopes will grow into a self-sufficient colony. [34] [35]

Before any people are transported to Mars, a number of cargo missions would be undertaken first in order to transport the requisite equipment, habitats and supplies. [36] Equipment that would accompany the early groups would include "machines to produce fertilizer, methane and oxygen from Mars' atmospheric nitrogen and carbon dioxide and the planet's subsurface water ice" as well as construction materials to build transparent domes for crop growth. [37] [38] As of September 2024, SpaceX plans to launch five uncrewed Starships to Mars during the next available Earth-Mars transfer window in 2026. [17]

Musk plans for the first crewed Mars missions to have approximately 12 people, with goals to "build out and troubleshoot the propellant plant and Mars Base Alpha power system" and establish a "rudimentary base." The company plans to process resources on Mars into fuel for return journeys, [39] and use similar technologies on Earth to create carbon-neutral propellant. [40]

Populating

People at SpaceX wearing t-shirts with Occupy Mars written on them. Colonization will depend on many people settling with the harsh reality of Mars, as pointed out by Elon Musk presenting SpaceX's colonial approach. Occupy Mars (9047414906).jpg
People at SpaceX wearing t-shirts with Occupy Mars written on them. Colonization will depend on many people settling with the harsh reality of Mars, as pointed out by Elon Musk presenting SpaceX's colonial approach.

The company hopes that once infrastructure is established on Mars and launch cost is reduced, populating can begin.

After the first few windows of crewed Mars landings, Musk has suggested that the number of people who are sent to Mars could be ramped up rapidly.

A successful colonization, meaning an established human presence on Mars growing over many decades, would ultimately involve many more economic actors than SpaceX. [43] [44] [45]

For reference, Musk's timeline for the colonization of Mars involves a crewed mission as early as 2029 and the development of a self-sustaining colony by 2050. [46]

Musk has stated in 2024 that in-situ resource utilization will be critical for establishing a self-sustaining colony, and that SpaceX plans to begin its efforts in advancing that field in "seven to nine years". [47] Current theories for in-situ resource utilization involve harvesting CO2 from the atmosphere and splitting into its raw components. This will involve using the O2 as well as CH4 for fuel production, and specifically the O2 in addition to Nitrogen (the second-most common gas in the Martian atmosphere) for breathing air within habitats. [48]

The program aims to send a million people to Mars, using a thousand Starships sent during a Mars launch window, which occurs approximately every 26 months. [49] Proposed journeys would require 80 to 150 days of transit time, [45] averaging approximately 115 days (for the nine synodic periods occurring between 2024 and 2041). [50]

Reception and feasibility

Mars colonization has gained increased interest, both supportive and critical, since the technical achievements of SpaceX's and Elon Musk's rise of popularity in the 2010s, and more so into the 2020s.

Support

"We bring you Mars", a rendering of a terraformed Mars at SpaceX Headquarters We bring you Mars (9848295393).jpg
"We bring you Mars", a rendering of a terraformed Mars at SpaceX Headquarters

Some experts, like Robert Zubrin, support the concept due to the prevalence of water ice in the form of permafrost and glaciers on Mars, as well as other resources like carbon dioxide and nitrogen. [51] According to Zubrin, Starship's planned lower launch cost could make space research profitable, allowing major advancements in medicine, computers, material science, [4] : 47, 48  making mining profitable as well and space-based economy and colonization practical. [4] : 25, 26 

Others like Saul Zimet have expressed strong support for the concept, suggesting the possibility that the technological advancements that could be developed on Mars will come to benefit the whole of Earth. [52]

Criticism

SpaceX's plan and colonization of Mars in general, has been criticized ethically and technically.

It has been argued that settling Mars may divert attention from solving problems on Earth that may also become problems on Mars, [53] with the reasoning that plans about Mars are always about the plans we have for Earth. [54] Jeff Bezos, founder of Blue Origin, SpaceX's would-be competitor in commercial spaceflight, has rejected Mars colonization as a mere "Plan B", suggesting instead to preserve Earth through space development and moving all heavy industrial activity to space. [55] SpaceX's perspective has also been criticised as perpetuating the idea of colonialism. [56] [1] Zahaan Barhmal of The Guardian writes that the impact of human settlement on Mars, with regards to planetary protection, has not been comprehensively answered. [53]

It has been argued that there are physical and social consequences that need to be addressed with regards to long-term survival on the surface of Mars. [54] Former U.S. President Barack Obama has characterized Mars as more inhospitable than Earth would be "even after a nuclear war", [57] with others pointing out that Earth and underground shelters on Earth could still provide better conditions and protection for more people from apocalyptic scenarios. [53] Mars colonization has been called a 'dangerous delusion' by Lord Martin Rees, a British cosmologist/astrophysicist and the Astronomer Royal of the United Kingdom. [58] Musk has stated that staying on Mars is a life threatening endeavor that needs to be glorious to be worth it. [1] Exploration of Mars has also been argued[ who? ] to be better left to the already successful robotic missions, with crewed missions simply being too expensive, dangerous and boring. [53]

Regarding the execution of SpaceX's Mars program, the plans have been criticized as far-fetched because of uncertainties in its financing [6] and because it primarily addresses transportation to Mars and not the steps that follow. As of July 2019, SpaceX had not publicly detailed plans for the spacecraft's life-support systems, radiation protection, and in situ resource utilization, which are essential for space colonization. [59] George Dvorsky writing for Gizmodo characterized Musk's timeline for Martian colonization as "stupendously unreasonable" and "pure delusion". [60]

Law

SpaceX intends to base the colony governing laws on self-determination, [61] and direct democracy (instead of representative democracy). [62] Some of this has been introduced through the terms and services agreement for individual users of SpaceX's Starlink platform, stating the following: "the parties recognize Mars as a free planet and that no Earth-based government has authority or sovereignty over Martian activities". [63]

In contrast to such claims, international space law, proclaiming space being "province of all mankind", holds that Mars is not free to be claimed, its legal status sharing some elements of the legal status of international waters. [64] Furthermore, the realization of direct-democracy by technocratic colonizers [62] and the legal accommodation of a diverse population is thought to be challenging. [65]

Trivia

It has been pointed out that, coincidentally, rocket engineer Wernher von Braun envisioned colonies on Mars led by a publicly elected leader titled the "Elon" in his book, Project Mars: A Technical Tale. [66] Musk's father said he was inspired after reading the book.

Related Research Articles

The Mars Society is a nonprofit organization that advocates for human exploration and colonization of Mars. It was founded by Robert Zubrin in 1998 and its principles are based on Zubrin's Mars Direct philosophy, which aims to make human missions to Mars as feasible as possible. The Mars Society generates interest in the Mars program by garnering support from the public and through lobbying. Many current and former Mars Society members are influential in the wider spaceflight community, such as Buzz Aldrin and Elon Musk.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">SpaceX</span> American aerospace company

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., commonly referred to as SpaceX, is an American space technology company headquartered at the Starbase development site near Brownsville, Texas. Since its founding in 2002, the company has made numerous advancements in rocket propulsion, reusable launch vehicles, human spaceflight and satellite constellation technology. As of 2024, SpaceX is the world's dominant space launch provider, its launch cadence eclipsing all others, including private competitors and national programs like the Chinese space program. SpaceX, NASA, and the United States Armed Forces work closely together by means of governmental contracts.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Colonization of Mars</span> Proposed concepts for human settlements on Mars

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">SpaceX Dragon</span> Family of SpaceX spacecraft

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Falcon Heavy</span> SpaceX heavy-lift launch vehicle

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">SpaceX reusable launch system development program</span> Effort by SpaceX to make rockets that can fly multiple times

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SpaceX <i>Red Dragon</i> Modified SpaceX Dragon spacecraft design for a proposed sample return mission to Mars

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Super heavy-lift launch vehicle Launch vehicle capable of lifting more than 50 tonnes of payload into low earth orbit

A super heavy-lift launch vehicle is a rocket that can lift to low Earth orbit a "super heavy payload", which is defined as more than 50 metric tons (110,000 lb) by the United States and as more than 100 metric tons (220,000 lb) by Russia. It is the most capable launch vehicle classification by mass to orbit, exceeding that of the heavy-lift launch vehicle classification.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">History of SpaceX</span> History of a space corporation

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020s in spaceflight</span>

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">SpaceX Starship</span> Reusable super heavy-lift launch vehicle

Starship is a two-stage fully reusable super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by American aerospace company SpaceX. On April 20, 2023, with the first Integrated Flight Test, Starship became the most massive and most powerful vehicle ever to fly. SpaceX has developed Starship with the intention of lowering launch costs using economies of scale, aiming to achieve this by reusing both rocket stages by "catching" them with the launch tower's systems, increasing payload mass to orbit, increasing launch frequency, mass-manufacturing the rockets and adapting it to a wide range of space missions. Starship is the latest project in SpaceX's reusable launch system development program and plan to colonize Mars.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Artemis program</span> NASA-led lunar exploration program

The Artemis program is a Moon exploration program led by the United States' National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), formally established in 2017 via Space Policy Directive 1. It is intended to reestablish a human presence on the Moon for the first time since the Apollo 17 mission in 1972. The program's stated long-term goal is to establish a permanent base on the Moon to facilitate human missions to Mars.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">SpaceX Raptor</span> SpaceX family of liquid-fuel rocket engines

Raptor is a family of rocket engines developed and manufactured by SpaceX. It is the third rocket engine in history designed with a full-flow staged combustion (FFSC) fuel cycle, and the first such engine to power a vehicle in flight. The engine is powered by cryogenic liquid methane and liquid oxygen, a combination known as methalox.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Starship HLS</span> Lunar lander variant of SpaceX Starship

Starship HLS is a lunar lander variant of the Starship spacecraft that is slated to transfer astronauts from a lunar orbit to the surface of the Moon and back. It is being designed and built by SpaceX under the Human Landing System contract to NASA as a critical element of NASA's Artemis program to land a crew on the Moon.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">SpaceX Starship (spacecraft)</span> Reusable spacecraft under development by SpaceX

Starship is a spacecraft and second stage under development by American aerospace company SpaceX. Stacked atop its booster, the Super Heavy, the pair compose SpaceX's super heavy-lift space vehicle, also called Starship. The spacecraft is designed to transport both crew and cargo to a variety of destinations, including Earth orbit, the Moon, and Mars. It's designed to be reusable and capable of landing propulsively by firing its engines to perform a controlled descent in the arms of a tower on Earth or with landing legs on other planetary bodies. It is intended to enable long duration interplanetary flights with a crew of up to 100 people. It will also be capable of point-to-point transport on Earth, enabling travel to anywhere in the world in less than an hour. Furthermore, it will be used to refuel other Starship spacecraft, enabling them to reach higher orbits and other space destinations. Elon Musk, the CEO of SpaceX, estimated in a tweet that eight launches would be needed to completely refuel a Starship in low Earth orbit, enabling it to travel onwards.

Before settling on the 2018 Starship design, SpaceX successively presented a number of reusable super-heavy lift vehicle proposals. These preliminary spacecraft designs were known under various names.

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