Timeline
On 23 June 2025, in response to U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran launched missiles at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar in a calibrated face-saving action which paved the way for negotiations. [10] [11] Following the strikes, President Trump expressed openness to a ceasefire, thanking Iran for notifying the U.S. in advance and limiting the scope of its retaliation; he also noted that little impact resulted from the hits, calling them "a very weak response". [12]
Shortly afterward, Trump stated on Truth Social that Israel and Iran had agreed on a ceasefire proposal jointly advanced by the U.S. and Qatar, [13] and pleaded with all parties to uphold the deal. [14] [15] By noon local time, IDF spokesman Effie Nefrin said that the ceasefire had come into effect that morning. [16] [17] Trump uttered an expletive on live television as he expressed his frustration with both sides for not upholding the ceasefire and claiming that they did not know what they were doing. [18] Both parties to the truce claimed that the ceasefire occurred on their own nation's terms. [19]
The start of the ceasefire was tense. [20] Three hours after it took effect, the Israel Defense Forces claimed two missiles were fired at the north of Israel and were shot down. In response, Israeli jets struck an Iranian radar in the north of Tehran. [21] As of 26 June, the ceasefire held, [4] [5] [6] thanks in part to Trump's continued intervention with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. [7] [8] [22]
Parties' characterization of ceasefire
Iran
President Masoud Pezeshkian gave a televised address lauding what he called a "great victory". [26] [27] Iranian media claimed that the truce had been imposed on "the enemy" after four waves of attacks on "Israeli-occupied territories", [7] and its National Security Council that it had "shattered the enemy's primary strategic goal". [8] The government sought to convey its resilience, highlighting societal cohesion and civilian solidarity with its aims. [28] [29] [30] Some reports suggested that moderate clerical and political figures had previously urged a truce on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, among them former president Hassan Rouhani, Supreme Leader advisor Ali Larijani, and Expediency Discernment Council chief Sadiq Larijani; a portion of these were rumored to have contemplated sidelining or ousting the Supreme Leader if the latter continued stonewalling negotiators. [13]
Following the ceasefire Iranian dignitaries voiced doubt about future commitment to nonproliferation. Foreign Minister Araghchi and other officials signaled that Iran might cease complying with the Non-Proliferation Treaty, a threat it had made repeatedly but never fulfilled to date; a parliamentary national security committee asserted that a May International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report alleging insufficient Iranian transparency was used by Israel to justify its strikes. [31]
On 26 June, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei resurfaced (in a recorded 10-minute speech) to warn the United States against future attacks; the ceasefire (in which he was not involved) [32] [33] was not mentioned. [34] In light of strategic damage Iran had endured in the 12 Day War, The Jerusalem Post deemed Khamanei's claim of "decisive victory", as well as the speech itself, delusional. [35] Khameni claimed that the American strikes "did nothing significant", that the U.S. had "gained nothing" from the war, and defiantly proclaimed that Iran would "never surrender". [36]
The Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in a detailed statement claimed that it was under the leadership of Khamenei throughout the war, and that the 22nd wave of Operation True Promise III had pressured the enemy to call for a ceasefire. [37]
Israel
Prime Minister Netanyahu hailed the ceasefire as corroborating Israeli success, claiming that it marked a "historic victory" over Iranian nuclear and ballistic missile ambitions [38] "which would stand for generations". [39]
Global reactions
We continue to follow carefully and with hope the developments in Iran, Israel and Palestine. The words of the prophet Isaiah resound with urgent relevance: "Nation shall not lift up sword against nation, neither shall they learn war any more" (Is 2:4). May this voice, which comes from the Most High, be heard! May the wounds caused by the bloody actions of recent days be healed. Let us reject arrogance and revenge, and instead resolutely choose the path of dialogue, diplomacy and peace.
Shares of U.S. and European airlines rose Tuesday 24 June. [42] Financial markets priced-in the truce holding and crude oil flows not being disrupted, with oil prices holding and near multi-week lows. Euro area government bond yields were mixed Wednesday 25 June. An index of global stocks hit a record high, and resumed taking on more risk, away from the safe haven of the dollar. [39]
UN Secretary General António Guterres urged in a social media post that both sides respect the ceasefire, and expressed his sincere hope that it would be extended in the region. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi also urged Tehran to resume cooperation, emphasizing diplomacy as the solution. [43] (The Parliament of Iran voted the next day for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran to end all cooperation.) [44] [31]
Iran's semi-official Mehr News Agency announced that Iranian airspace would reopen 10:30 GMT Wednesday 25 June. [45] Upon the return of Ben-Gurion International Airport to full operations FlyDubai (UAE), Tus Airlines (Cyprus), and Bluebird Airways (Greece) announced they would resume service Thursday; Hainan Airlines (China) is expected to follow suit Sunday. [46]
After a sharp increase on the morning of 23 June following the U.S. strikes on Iran, global oil prices had returned to roughly the same pricing before the Iran-Israel war started, with Brent Crude trading at $67 per barrel on 26 June. The national average price of gasoline in the United States reached a four-year low of around $3.20 by 26 June. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and former energy adviser to President George W. Bush, remarked "Assuming the cease-fire holds, there's no resumption of conflict, the gasoline prices should remain where they are" and "President Trump desperately wants to avoid an oil price spike and just close down the war". [47]
Analysis
A report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) concluded that Israeli operations forced the Iranian government to accept the truce, allowing Israel to achieve a key objective, despite strikes being limited to imposing costs on resistance rather than reflecting an effort to topple the regime; supporting this, the report observed that Israel did not systematically target domestic security on a nationwide basis, largely focusing on installations in the Iranian capital Tehran. Instead, Israel sought to "demonstrate a credible threat" to the regime should it decide to resume or expand its campaign, the report determined. Citing an estimate by the Institute for Science and International Security, the ISW assessed Iranian enrichment abilities as having been severely curtailed by American and Israeli strikes, calculating that "the loss of so many centrifuges and facilities" would impede nuclear activities for the foreseeable future. The ISW also reported that Israeli interdictions and attacks on launchers reduced the volume of ballistic missile assaults on Israel, forcing Iran to rely on "much fewer" and "smaller" barrages; these Israeli efforts further compelled Iran to submit. [48]
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