Hurricane Rosa (2018)

Last updated
Map key
Saffir–Simpson scale
  Tropical depression (≤38 mph, ≤62 km/h)
  Tropical storm (39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h)
  Category 1 (74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h)
  Category 2 (96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h)
  Category 3 (111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h)
  Category 4 (130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h)
  Category 5 (≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h)
  Unknown
Storm type
Disc Plain black.svg Tropical cyclone
Solid black.svg Subtropical cyclone
ArrowUp.svg Extratropical cyclone, remnant low, tropical disturbance, or monsoon depression

Hurricane Rosa originated from a vigorous tropical wave that departed from the west coast of Africa on September 6. The wave traveled across the tropical Atlantic with minimal associated convection and became difficult to track after interacting with a mid-level trough in the Caribbean Sea. [1] The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a Tropical Weather Outlook on September 19, anticipating that an area of low pressure would form in the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the weekend. [2] The wave crossed Central America and entered the gulf on September 22, where it produced a surface circulation with convective activity aloft. [1] Though broad in structure, the system consolidated as it proceeded slightly north of west. [3] [4] It was officially classified as Tropical Depression Twenty-E on September 25, at 06:00 UTC, located 350 mi (560 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. [1]

At the time of its formation, the depression was located within a favorable tropospheric environment of warm sea surface temperatures and minimal vertical wind shear, featuring a well-defined center of circulation under an expanding area of strong convection. [5] The depression maintained a trend of steady strengthening over the 24 hours: it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Rosa six hours after being classified, [1] and became the tenth hurricane of the season a day later, at 12:00 UTC on September 26. [1] [6] The NHC remarked that Rosa's structure was well developed at the middle levels of the troposphere, with distinct rainbands wrapped around the southern semicircle of the cyclone. [7] The hurricane leveled in intensity for eighteen hours before proceeding into another phase of rapid intensification; [1] it reached major hurricane status at 18:00 UTC on September 27, peaking in intensity with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph (240 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 936 mbar (27.6 inHg). This made Rosa the seventh Category 4 hurricane of the year's season. [1] [8]

After Rosa reached its peak, the hurricane's eyewall – an inner ring of clouds around the eye, marked by high winds – began to warm considerably, signaling the start of an eyewall replacement cycle. [9] Rosa turned to the northwest on the afternoon of September 28 in response to an approaching mid- to upper-level trough, which would continue to influence the remainder of the hurricane's development. [10] Now tracking over cooler seas, Rosa steadily weakened down to Category 2  by 00:00 UTC, September 29, while undergoing its eyewall replacement. [11] Once the replacement cycle was completed, the storm briefly restrengthened because of its much-improved structure, with expanding outflow to the northeast of the eye. [1] [12] However, Rosa began to experience impinging wind shear from the developing trough, causing a misalignment between the upper and lower levels of the hurricane, [13] as well as coinciding with a final weakening phase. [1] [13]

Rosa turned to the north on September 29, ahead of the trough. [12] The unrelenting wind shear – combined with progressively cooler seas and drier air – quickly eroded Rosa's core, disrupting the eye and convection over the southern half of the hurricane. [14] [15] At 12:00 UTC on September 30, the diminishing hurricane dropped to Category 1 while being steered towards the northeast between the trough and a subtropical ridge. [1] [16] Rosa lost its hurricane status twelve hours later, proceeding towards the Baja California Peninsula as a tropical storm. [1] It further weakened to a tropical depression on October 2, after the convection became displaced from the elongating center. [17] At 11:00 UTC on October 2, Rosa made landfall about 70 mi (110 km) southeast of Punta San Antonio in Baja California, [1] becoming the first tropical cyclone to move over the state since Nora of 1997. [18] [19] During its approach towards the Gulf of California, Rosa exhibited an increasingly unwound and diffuse structure, prompting the NHC to declassify it as a tropical cyclone at 15:00 UTC. [20] Shortly after, forecasters at the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) noted that the low- and mid-level circulations of Rosa's remnant had decoupled; the mid-level remnants proceeded into northeast Arizona, while the lower segment traced behind it over the Gulf of California. [21] On October 3, in their final advisory on the system, the WPC reported that the remnants had been absorbed into a deepening non-tropical low off the coast of California. [22]

Preparations, impact, and aftermath

Mexico

Hurricane Rosa approaching the Baja California Peninsula on September 29 Rosa 2018-09-29 2045Z.jpg
Hurricane Rosa approaching the Baja California Peninsula on September 29

The Government of Mexico issued a tropical storm watch on September 29 for the Pacific Coast of the Baja California Peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintín. The watches on the west coast of Baja California were changed to tropical storm warnings, and watches were issued for the east coast of Baja California from Bahía de los Angeles to San Felipe on the next day. All the watches and warnings were discontinued after Rosa weakened to a tropical depression. [1] The State Unit of Civil Protection of Sonora issued a yellow alert (imminent severe weather) for 11 municipalities and a green alert (possible severe weather) for 19 municipalities on September 30. [23] A red alert was issued for San Felipe on October 1 as Rosa approached Baja California. [24] On the same day, schools were closed in several communities throughout Baja California as well as in the neighboring state of Sonora. [25] The Marine Plan, an evacuation and rescue plan, was activated in the states of Baja California, Baja California Sur, Sonora, and Sinaloa. [26]

Because of its significant weakening before landfall, Rosa had a relatively minor impact in Mexico. [1] Rainfall was heaviest in Baja California, peaking at 6.54 in (166 mm) in Percebu and at 5.39 in (137 mm) in San Felipe. [27] A rainfall total of 2.6 in (67 mm) occurred in Sonoyta, Sonora, near the US-Mexico border. [28] Floods in San Felipe collapsed part of a highway and opened up a sinkhole in the city's port. [29] [24] The port suffered MX$10 million (US$530,000) in losses following a five-day shutdown of its operations. [30] Rosa caused widespread coastal flooding near San Felipe and damaged archaeological sites. [31] In Los Cabos, Baja California Sur, rainstorms triggered power outages and floods swept away vehicles. [32] In Puerto Peñasco, Sonora, dozens of homes and businesses suffered from flooding after an estimated 4 in (100 mm) of rain fell. Many of the town's roads were closed, and four bridges became impassable. [33] A woman drowned in Caborca, Sonora, after being swept away by floodwaters. [34]

Farther south, in the state of Colima, floodwaters swept through the city of Manzanillo, causing sinkholes, rupturing underground pipes, and inundating buildings. Landslides in and around the city blocked roads and buried three vehicles in mud. [35] Throughout the state of Michoacán, the combined effects from Rosa and nearby Tropical Storm Sergio destroyed 86,000 acres (35,000 ha) of crops. [36] After Rosa's passage, states of emergency were issued for the cities of Ensenada, Mexicali, [25] and Puerto Peñasco. [33]

United States

Rainfall totals for the second round of rain generated by Rosa's remnants, which lasted from October 1-2. Hurricane Rosa (2018) rainfall.png
Rainfall totals for the second round of rain generated by Rosa's remnants, which lasted from October 1–2.

Exiting the Gulf of California, the remnants of Rosa tracked northward, spawning showers and thunderstorms in the Four Corners region. [37] Damage from flooding in the Southwestern United States totaled about $50 million (USD). [38] [39] Flood watches and warnings were issued on September 30 for Southern California, Arizona, southwest Colorado, Utah, central Nevada, and a small portion of southeast Idaho. [40] Rosa dropped 5.9 in (150 mm) of rain on a two week old, 240 sq mi (610 km2) burn scar in central Utah. Samples taken from streams that received rainfall from Rosa showed that the wildfires had lowered the level of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus. [41] [42] [43] On October 1, an interaction between Rosa's remnants and a Pacific low produced severe thunderstorms in San Bernardino County, California. [44] Surging floodwaters carried rocks onto portions of U.S. Route 95 and coated parts of state routes 62 and 127 in mud and debris. [34] [44] [45] Effects from the severe weather extended into Nevada, where flash floods inundated buildings and deposited rubble along Pioche's Main Street. [46]

By the time of Rosa's absorption on October 3, a total of 6.89 in (175 mm) of rain was recorded at Towers Mountain, Arizona, located about 85 mi (137 km) north of Phoenix; other areas throughout the state reported up to 5.5 in (140 mm) of rain. [22] The remnants of Rosa caused flash floods throughout the communities of Guadalupe, Glendale, Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, Deer Valley, and Sun City [47] and knocked out power in Yuma. [34] As rainfall exceeded 2 in (50 mm), the National Weather Service issued a flash flood warning for the Phoenix area. Though over two dozen roads, as well as schools and businesses, had been closed, 80 car accidents occurred during the torrential rains. [48] Outside the Phoenix area, weather-related traffic accidents resulted in the deaths of a 26-year-old woman just north of Cameron and a 34-year-old man in Kingman. [49] [50]

At Menagers Dam near Sells, Arizona, rainfall from Rosa brought the water level within 1 foot (0.30 m) of maximum capacity on October 2, raising concerns about the dam's structural integrity. [51] Saying dam failure was imminent, the National Weather Service in Tucson urged residents of Ali Chuk to evacuate immediately. [52] Later that day, 162 people were evacuated from Ali Chuk, as well as 32 from Kohatk and 23 from the Menagers Dam community. [51] Engineers were recruited to carry out assessments of the dam, [53] and authorities continued to monitor the water level for two weeks before allowing residents to return to their homes on October 17. [54] Water discharge rates on the Salt River reached 25,000 cu ft (710 m3) per second, requiring officials to release water from the Tempe Town Lake. [55]

The Federal Highway Administration announced on September 10, 2019, that it was providing $4.7 million to the state of Arizona to fund road and bridge repairs required as a result of Rosa. [56] Road crews worked to repair a hillside along Arizona State Route 87 that was compromised as a result of heavy rainfall during Rosa. The project involved cleaning ditches, creating new ditches, removing landslide material, depositing boulders to prevent erosion, and repairing pavement; the cost was pegged at $4.2 million. [57]

See also

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References

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Avila, Lixion A. (January 30, 2019). Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Rosa (PDF) (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved January 30, 2019.
  2. ↑ Blake, Eric (September 19, 2018). Tropical Weather Outlook [20:48 UTC, Wed Sep 19, 2018] (Report). NHC Graphical Outlook Archive. National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on September 28, 2018. Retrieved September 26, 2018.
  3. ↑ Zelinsky, David (September 22, 2018). Tropical Weather Outlook [23:24 UTC, Sat Sep 22, 2018] (Report). NHC Graphical Outlook Archive. National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on September 28, 2018. Retrieved September 26, 2018.
  4. ↑ Zelinsky, David (September 24, 2018). Tropical Weather Outlook [23:24 UTC, Mon Sep 24, 2018] (Report). NHC Graphical Outlook Archive. National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on September 30, 2018. Retrieved September 26, 2018.
  5. ↑ Cangialosi, John (September 25, 2018). Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 1 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on January 31, 2019. Retrieved January 30, 2019.
  6. ↑ Roberts, Dave (September 26, 2018). Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 6 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on September 28, 2018. Retrieved September 27, 2018.
  7. ↑ Roberts, Dave (September 26, 2018). Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 6 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on February 1, 2019. Retrieved January 31, 2019.
  8. ↑ Blake, Eric (September 28, 2018). Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 12 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on November 5, 2018. Retrieved September 29, 2018.
  9. ↑ Roberts, Dave (September 28, 2018). Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 13 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on February 1, 2019. Retrieved January 31, 2019.
  10. ↑ Zelinsky, David (September 28, 2018). Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 14...Corrected (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on September 30, 2018. Retrieved September 29, 2018.
  11. ↑ Blake, Eric (September 29, 2018). Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 16 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on September 30, 2018. Retrieved September 29, 2018.
  12. 1 2 Beven, Jack (September 29, 2018). Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 18 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on September 30, 2018. Retrieved September 29, 2018.
  13. 1 2 Stewart, Stacy (September 29, 2018). Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 17 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on October 1, 2018. Retrieved January 31, 2019.
  14. ↑ Stewart, Stacy (September 30, 2018). Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 21 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on September 30, 2018. Retrieved September 30, 2018.
  15. ↑ Pasch, Richard (September 30, 2018). Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 22 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on September 30, 2018. Retrieved September 30, 2018.
  16. ↑ Stewart, Stacy (September 30, 2018). Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 20 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on October 10, 2021. Retrieved July 11, 2019.
  17. ↑ Brown, Daniel (October 2, 2018). Tropical Depression Rosa Discussion Number 29 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on October 3, 2018. Retrieved October 2, 2018.
  18. ↑ Johnson, Weldon B. (September 27, 2018). "Rosa is out there. Has a hurricane ever hit Arizona?". The Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on October 6, 2021. Retrieved July 2, 2019.
  19. ↑ Cappucci, Matthew (October 1, 2018). "Southwest braces for Rosa's torrential rains". The Mercury News. Archived from the original on July 2, 2019. Retrieved July 2, 2019.
  20. ↑ Cangialosi, John (October 2, 2018). Remnants of Rosa Advisory Number 30 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on October 3, 2018. Retrieved October 2, 2018.
  21. ↑ Otto, Richard (October 2, 2018). Storm Summary Number 5 for Heavy Rainfall Associated with Rosa (Report). Weather Prediction Center. Archived from the original on February 3, 2019. Retrieved October 2, 2018.
  22. 1 2 Kong, Kwan-Yin (October 3, 2018). Storm Summary Number 7 for Heavy Rainfall Associated with Rosa (Report). Weather Prediction Center. Archived from the original on February 3, 2019. Retrieved October 3, 2018.
  23. ↑ "Emiten alerta por llegada de 'Rosa' a Sonora y Baja California". Lopez-Doriga (in Spanish). September 30, 2018. Archived from the original on June 4, 2019. Retrieved June 4, 2019.
  24. 1 2 "Sigue alerta en Puerto de San Felipe por remanentes de 'Rosa'". Televisa News (in Spanish). October 2, 2018. Archived from the original on December 2, 2020. Retrieved June 5, 2019.
  25. 1 2 Orsi, Peter; Tang, Terry (October 1, 2018). "Tropical Storm Rosa Heads for Baja, US Southwest". U.S. News & World Report. Associated Press. Archived from the original on October 2, 2018. Retrieved October 2, 2018.
  26. ↑ "Activan Plan Marina por el poderoso huracán "Rosa" que amenaza a México". El Imparcial (in Spanish). September 28, 2018. Archived from the original on June 5, 2019. Retrieved June 5, 2019.
  27. ↑ "Precipitación acumulada (mm) el 1 de octubre de 2018 por el huracan Rosa" (Map). gob.mx (in Spanish). Conagua. Archived from the original on August 19, 2020. Retrieved March 12, 2019.
  28. ↑ Rodríguez Castañeda, José Luis; Lagunes, Alejandro Jiménez; Murillo, Ricardo Sánchez; Adams, David; Quezadas, Juan Pérez (January 2021). "Isotopic variability (δ18O, δ2H and d-excess) during rainfall events of the north American monsoon across the Sonora River Basin, Mexico". Journal of South American Earth Sciences. Science Direct. 105: 6. Bibcode:2021JSAES.10502928Q. doi:10.1016/j.jsames.2020.102928. S2CID   225139701. Archived from the original on 2021-12-11. Retrieved 2021-12-28.
  29. ↑ "Colapsa vialidad en San Felipe por intensa lluvia". Uniradio Noticias (in Spanish). October 1, 2018. Archived from the original on August 19, 2020. Retrieved June 4, 2019.
  30. ↑ Campos, Diana (October 3, 2018). "10 millones de pérdidas en San Felipe por lluvias" (in Spanish). Cadena Noticias. Archived from the original on October 23, 2018. Retrieved October 23, 2018.
  31. ↑ Vellanoweth, René L.; Porcayo-Michelini, Antonio; Guttenberg, Richard B.; Hayden, William; Ainis, Amira F.; Hernández-Estrada, Raquel L. (16 July 2020). "Spring tides, storm surges, and the destruction of coastal middens: A case study from the upper Gulf of California, México". The Journal of Island and Coastal Archaeology. Taylor & Francis Online. 16 (3): 3. doi:10.1080/15564894.2020.1782539. S2CID   225541774. Archived from the original on 15 January 2022. Retrieved 21 January 2022.
  32. ↑ "Las lluvias de 'Rosa' provocan inundaciones en Los Cabos". La Prensa (in Spanish). September 28, 2018. Archived from the original on September 29, 2018. Retrieved June 5, 2019.
  33. 1 2 Hernández, Tania Yamileth (October 3, 2018). "Declaran emergencia en Puerto Peñasco por "Rosa"". El Imparcial (in Spanish). Archived from the original on October 25, 2018. Retrieved October 25, 2018.
  34. 1 2 3 Wright, Pam (October 5, 2018). "At Least 2 Dead in Arizona, 1 in Mexico Following Flash Flooding From Rosa's Remnants". The Weather Channel. Archived from the original on October 3, 2018. Retrieved July 15, 2019. person reportedly drowned in Mexico after being swept away by floodwaters.
  35. ↑ "Lluvias dejan afectaciones en La Central, en Manzanillo, Colima". Televisa News (in Spanish). September 27, 2018. Archived from the original on October 10, 2021. Retrieved June 5, 2019.
  36. ↑ "Al menos 35.000 hectáreas de cultivo afectadas en México por fuertes lluvias". NTN 24 (in Spanish). September 30, 2018. Archived from the original on June 5, 2019. Retrieved June 5, 2019.
  37. ↑ October 2018 Climate Summary for Eastern Utah and Western Colorado (Report). National Weather Service. Archived from the original on February 23, 2019. Retrieved February 23, 2019.
  38. ↑ Weather, Climate & Catastrophe Insight – 2018 Annual Report (PDF) (Report). Aon Benfield. January 22, 2019. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 14, 2019. Retrieved January 24, 2019.
  39. ↑ Hanson, Aprille (4 March 2019). "Casa Digna restores dignity through housing, employment". Arkansas Catholic. Archived from the original on 15 January 2022. Retrieved 21 January 2022.
  40. ↑ Tate, Jennifer (October 1, 2018). Storm Summary Number 1 for Heavy Rainfall Associated with Rosa...Corrected (Report). Weather Prediction Center. Archived from the original on February 3, 2019. Retrieved October 2, 2018.
  41. ↑ Crandall, Trevor; Jones, Erin; Greenhalgh, Mitchell; Frei, Rebecca J.; Griffin, Natasha; Severe, Emilee; Maxwell, Jordan; Patch, Leika; St. Clair, S. Isaac; Bratsman, Sam; Merritt, Marina; Norris, Adam J.; Carling, Gregory T.; Hansen, Neil; St. Clair, Samuel B.; Abbott, Benjamin W. (23 September 2021). "Megafire affects stream sediment flux and dissolved organic matter reactivity, but land use dominates nutrient dynamics in semiarid watersheds". PLOS ONE. 16 (9): e0257733. Bibcode:2021PLoSO..1657733C. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0257733 . PMC   8460006 . PMID   34555099.
  42. ↑ Crandall, Trevor (26 March 2019). Wildfires and Storm Events: Multiple Stressors Alter Stream Form and Function in Semi-Arid Watersheds (Report). Utah State University. Archived from the original on 15 January 2022. Retrieved 21 January 2022.
  43. ↑ Crandall, Trevor (27 March 2020). Wildfire in the West: How Megafires and Storm Events Affect Stream Chemistry and Nutrient Dynamics in Semi-Arid Watersheds (Report). Brigham Young University. ISSN   2572-4479. Archived from the original on 15 January 2022. Retrieved 21 January 2022.
  44. 1 2 Event: Flash Flood in San Bernardino, CA [2018-10-03, 17:08 PST-8] (Report). Storm Events Database. National Centers for Environmental Information. Archived from the original on February 24, 2019. Retrieved February 24, 2019.
  45. ↑ Event: Flash Flood in San Bernardino, CA [2018-10-03, 16:29 PST-8] (Report). Storm Events Database. National Centers for Environmental Information. Archived from the original on February 24, 2019. Retrieved February 24, 2019.
  46. ↑ Event: Flash Flood in Lincoln, NV [2018-10-03, 11:15 PST-8] (Report). Storm Events Database. National Centers for Environmental Information. Archived from the original on February 25, 2019. Retrieved February 24, 2019.
  47. ↑ Event: Flash Flood in Maricopa, AZ [2018-10-02, 10:00 MST-7] (Report). Storm Events Database. National Centers for Environmental Information. Archived from the original on February 24, 2019. Retrieved February 24, 2019.
  48. ↑ "'One of the rainiest days': Streets flooded, schools closed as Rosa takes toll on Arizona". 13wmaz. October 2, 2018. Archived from the original on August 19, 2020. Retrieved February 23, 2019.
  49. ↑ Devereaux, Katie (October 5, 2018). "One dead after part of Highway 89 washed out". Arizona Daily Sun. Archived from the original on October 6, 2018. Retrieved October 6, 2018.
  50. ↑ Holler, Madeleine (October 5, 2018). "MCSO: One dead in Kingman after flash flood". AZFamily. Archived from the original on October 11, 2018. Retrieved October 11, 2018.
  51. 1 2 "Southern Arizona dam holding as water recedes". New Haven Register. Associated Press. October 3, 2018. Archived from the original on October 5, 2018. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
  52. ↑ NWS Tucson [@NWSTucson] (October 2, 2018). "Dam failure is imminent at Menegers Lake on the Tohono O'odham Nation. Evacuation per authorities is strongly advised for the village of Ali Chuk. #azwx" (Tweet). Retrieved October 5, 2018– via Twitter.
  53. ↑ Duarte, Carmen; Knott, Gloria (October 4, 2018). "Water levels drop, but tribal officials remain concerned Arizona dam could fail". Arizona Daily Star. Archived from the original on October 4, 2018. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
  54. ↑ Radwany, Sam (October 17, 2018). "Some Tohono O'odham Nation evacuees finally returning home". Kgun 9. ABC. Archived from the original on August 19, 2020. Retrieved June 18, 2019.
  55. ↑ Goldstein, Steve; Gilger, Lauren; Johnson, Nakiesha; Hernandez, Julian (25 September 2019). "Soggy Weather Has Much Of Arizona Under Flash Flood Watches". KJZZ. Associated Press. Archived from the original on 15 January 2022. Retrieved 21 January 2022.
  56. ↑ "Tennessee to get $190 million in emergency relief funds for road and bridge repairs". WRCB Channel 3 News. 10 September 2019. Archived from the original on 5 March 2020. Retrieved 21 January 2022.
  57. ↑ Bechman, Alexis (23 March 2021). "$4 million landslide stabilization project ongoing on State Route 87". Payson Roundup. Archived from the original on 23 March 2021. Retrieved 21 January 2022.
Hurricane Rosa
Rosa 2018-09-28 0945Z.jpg
Hurricane Rosa at peak intensity southwest of Baja California Sur on September 28
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