Tropical cyclone warnings and watches

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Tropical cyclone warnings and watches are alerts issued by national weather forecasting bodies to coastal areas threatened by the imminent approach of a tropical cyclone of tropical storm or hurricane intensity. They are notices to the local population and civil authorities to make appropriate preparation for the cyclone, including evacuation of vulnerable areas where necessary. It is important that interests throughout the area of an alert make preparations to protect life and property, and do not disregard it on the strength of the detailed forecast track.

Contents

Western hemisphere

Alert issued for the Big Island about the message of hurricane warning during Hurricane Lane. Hurricane Lane warning (29254459177).jpg
Alert issued for the Big Island about the message of hurricane warning during Hurricane Lane.

New tropical cyclone position and forecast information is available at least every twelve hours in the Southern Hemisphere and at least every six hours in the Northern Hemisphere from Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers and Tropical Cyclone Warning Centers. [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] In conjunction with the National Hurricane Center, the national meteorological and hydrological services of Central America, the northern Atlantic Ocean, and the northeastern Pacific Ocean east of the 140th meridian west, excluding mainland Africa and Europe, all issue tropical storm/hurricane watches and warnings. [6] Tropical storm watches are issued when gale and storm force winds of between 34 and 63 knots (39–73 mph; 63–118 km/h) are possible, within 48 hours in a specified area in association with a tropical, subtropical or post-tropical cyclone. [7] These watches are upgraded to tropical storm warnings, when gale and storm force winds become expected to occur somewhere in the warning area within 36 hours. [7] Hurricane watches are issued when sustained winds of 64 knots (74 mph; 119 km/h) are possible, within 48 hours in a specified area in association with a tropical, subtropical or post-tropical cyclone. [7] These watches are upgraded to hurricane warnings, when hurricane-force winds become expected to occur somewhere in the warning area within 36 hours. [7]

Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch and warnings are issued in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds, rather than in advance of the anticipated onset of hurricane-force winds. [7] At times a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch can both be in effect due to uncertainties in the forecast. These watches and warnings are also issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center for the Hawaiian Islands and the Weather Forecast Office in Guam for parts of Micronesia but not for American Samoa due to an international agreement. [8]

Within the United States an extreme wind warning is issued by the National Weather Service for any land areas that are expected to be impacted by a major (Category 3 or higher) hurricane and by sustained surface winds greater than or equal to 100 knots (115 mph; 185 km/h). [8] The warning is issued just prior to when the strongest winds of the eyewall are expected to impact an area. [9] The warning is to be issued for the smallest area possible, and be valid for times of two hours or less. [9] It was developed in response to confusion resulting from the landfall of Hurricane Katrina. NWS offices in Jackson and New Orleans/Baton Rouge issued 11 tornado warnings for areas that would not experience an actual tornado, but would experience extreme wind speeds commonly associated with tornadoes. [10] The extreme wind warning is now expected to be used in these situations.

In 2017, the National Hurricane Center introduced a new system of warnings and watches for storm surge, which would cover the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. A storm surge watch would be issued when a life-threatening storm surge, associated with a potential or ongoing tropical, subtropical or post-tropical cyclone, is possible within the next 48 hours. These watches would be upgraded to storm surge warnings when there is a danger of life-threatening storm surge occurring within 36 hours. However, both watches and warnings may be issued earlier than specified if environmental conditions are expected to hamper preparations. [11]

In Mexico, a color coded alert system is used to keep the public informed when a tropical cyclone or possible tropical cyclones poses a threat to the nation. The scale starts with blue at the bottom being minimal danger, then proceeds to a green alert, which means low level danger. A yellow alert signifies moderate danger, followed by an orange alert that means high danger level. The scale tops off with a red alert, the maximum level of danger. [12]

Canada

In Canada, terminology is fairly similar to that of the United States, but there are a few differences: [13]

West Pacific systems

China

A two-stage warning system was long-established in China for tropical cyclones of tropical storm intensity of above. [14] Nowadays, the use of this system is restricted to coastal waters only. Thus, warnings may be discontinued even if a cyclone is maintaining tropical storm intensity inland. Color-coded alerts (below) may be in effect independently of any two-stage warnings.

Later, China Meteorological Administration standardized the system for national use. [15] This set is part of a larger warning system that covers other forms of severe weather conditions, such as extreme temperature, torrential rainfall, drought, etc.

LevelNameSignMeaning
IVBlue typhoon alert
台风蓝色预警信号		 Blue typhoon alert - China.svg Within 24 hours, it may or may have been affected by tropical cyclones. The average wind power on the coast or land is above 6, or the gust above 8 and may continue.
IIIYellow typhoon alert
台风黄色预警信号		 Yellow typhoon alert - China.svg Within 24 hours, it may or may have been affected by tropical cyclones. The average wind power on the coast or land is above 8, or the gust above 10 and may continue.
IIOrange typhoon alert
台风橙色预警信号		 Orange typhoon alert - China.svg Within 12 hours, it may or may have been affected by tropical cyclones. The average wind power on the coast or land is above 10, or the gust above 12 and may continue.
IRed typhoon alert
台风红色预警信号		 Red typhoon alert - China.svg Within 6 hours, it may or may have been affected by tropical cyclones. The average wind power on the coast or land is above 12, or the gust above 14 and may continue.

Guangdong

Guangdong continued to set up the White typhoon alert for typhoon, indicating that tropical cyclones may affect the area within 48 hours. In some inland areas that are less affected by tropical cyclones (such as Qinghai, etc.), there is no typhoon warning signal, but when it is hit by tropical cyclones, a strong wind warning signal will be issued. The winds represented by each color are consistent with the typhoon warning signal.

Typhoon warning signals used in Guangzhou from June 1, 1995, to November 1, 2000: [16]

NameMeaning
Windproof Info (Tropical Storm or Typhoon Info)indicates that a tropical storm or typhoon has entered the South China Sea (or has formed in the South China Sea) and is likely to move to the coastal areas of the province.
Windproof Warning (Tropical Storm and Typhoon Warning)Indicating that a tropical storm or typhoon warning enters the South China Sea, its route is moving in the direction of the Pearl River Estuary. If there is no change, it may land within 48 hours.
Windproof Special Alert (Tropical Storm or Typhoon Emergency Alert)Indicating that a tropical storm or typhoon hits the Pearl River Estuary within 24 hours, or landed in a coastal area within 150 kilometers of the Pearl River Estuary, which will have a serious impact on Guangzhou.
Disarming (Tropical Storm or Typhoon Disarming Alert)indicates that a tropical storm or typhoon has landed (or weakened to a low pressure).

Typhoon warning signals used from November 1, 2000, to May 2006: [17]

NameSignalMeaning
White typhoon alert Taf1.gif Tropical cyclones may affect the area within 48 hours.
Green typhoon alert Taf2.gif Tropical cyclones will be within 24 hours or are affecting the area, with an average wind level of strong winds (6-7) (41-62 km/h).
Yellow typhoon alert Kj3.gif Tropical cyclones will be within 12 hours or are affecting the area, with an average winds level of strong gale (8-9) (63-87 km/h).
Red typhoon alert Ty4.gif Tropical cyclones will be within 12 hours or are affecting the area, with an average winds level of strong storm (10-11) (88-117 km/h).
Black typhoon alert Jk5.gif Tropical cyclones will be within 12 hours or are affecting the area, with an average winds level of typhoon (>12).

Typhoon warning signals used from June 1, 2006, to December 31, 2014: [18]

NameSignalMeaning
White typhoon alert Typhoon 1 white.jpg Tropical cyclones may affect the area within 48 hours.
Blue typhoon alert Typhoon 2 blue.jpg It may be affected by tropical cyclones within 24 hours, the average wind power can reach above level 6, or gusts above 7; or it has been affected by tropical cyclones with an average wind power of 6–7, or gusts of 7–8, and may continue.
Yellow typhoon alert Typhoon 3 yellow.jpg It may be affected by tropical cyclones within 24 hours, the average wind power can reach above level 8, or gusts above 9; or it has been affected by tropical cyclones with an average wind power of 8–9, or gusts of 9-10, and may continue.
Orange typhoon alert Typhoon 4 orange.jpg It may be affected by tropical cyclones within 12 hours, the average wind power can reach above level 10, or gusts above 11; or it has been affected by tropical cyclones with an average wind power of 10–11, or gusts of 11–12, and may continue.
Red typhoon alert Typhoon 5 red.jpg It may be affected by tropical cyclones within 6 hours, the average wind power can reach above level 12; or it has been affected by tropical cyclones with an average wind power of 12, and may continue.

Typhoon warning signals used since January 1, 2015: [19]

NameSignalMeaning
White typhoon alert 2015Ban Yan Dong Sheng Tai Feng Bai Se Yu Jing Xin Hao .gif Tropical cyclones may affect the area within 48 hours.
Blue typhoon alert 2015Ban Yan Dong Sheng Tai Feng Lan Se Yu Jing Xin Hao .gif It may be affected by tropical cyclones within 24 hours, the average wind power can reach above level 6, or gusts above 7; or it has been affected by tropical cyclones with an average wind power of 6–7, or gusts of 7–8, and may continue.
Yellow typhoon alert 2015Ban Yan Dong Sheng Tai Feng Huang Se Yu Jing Xin Hao .gif It may be affected by tropical cyclones within 24 hours, the average wind power can reach above level 8, or gusts above 9; or it has been affected by tropical cyclones with an average wind power of 8–9, or gusts of 9-10, and may continue.
Orange typhoon alert 2015Ban Yan Dong Sheng Tai Feng Cheng Se Yu Jing Xin Hao .gif It may be affected by tropical cyclones within 12 hours, the average wind power can reach above level 10, or gusts above 11; or it has been affected by tropical cyclones with an average wind power of 10–11, or gusts of 11–12, and may continue.
Red typhoon alert 2015Ban Yan Dong Sheng Tai Feng Hong Se Yu Jing Xin Hao .gif It may be affected by tropical cyclones within 6 hours, the average wind power can reach above level 12; or it has been affected by tropical cyclones with an average wind power of 12, and may continue.
Shenzhen

Shenzhen currently uses a different signal from Guangdong Province: [18] [20]

Zhuhai

Zhuhai adopts the signal style of Guangdong Province, but the meaning of the signal is different: [21]

Ball signal

Shenzhen and Zhuhai

Shenzhen and Zhuhai used digitally arranged typhoon signals from June 4, 1994, to November 1, 2000, [22] but they have now been replaced by typhoon warning signals.

Ports

The coastal ports of various cities in mainland China will still hang the squash signal when the typhoon hits. [23] The sign is roughly the same as the typhoon signal used in Shenzhen and Zhuhai. [24]

Hong Kong and Macau

The Pearl River Delta uses a variety of warning systems to inform the public regarding the risks of tropical cyclones to the area.

The Hong Kong Observatory issues typhoon signals to indicate the existence and effects of a tropical cyclone on Hong Kong. The first numeric warning system was used in 1917.

The Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau in Macau uses a similar system. [25]

In Hong Kong the typhoon signal system consists of 8 signals in 5 levels numbered non-consecutively for historical reasons. [26] [27] Each signal has a day signal and a night signal for hoisting, which are still hoisted in Macau but no longer hoisted in Hong Kong. Day signals are also used as signal symbols in both places.

SignalSymbol in Hong KongSymbol in MacauNight Signal in MacauNoteWind speedGust
No.1 No. 01 Standby Signal.png Aspecto do sinal no 1 de tempestade tropical de Macau na dia.png Aspecto do sinal no 1 de tempestade tropical de Macau em noite.png (Standby) A tropical cyclone is centred within 800 km of the territory.NANA
No.3 No. 03 Strong Wind Signal.png Aspecto do sinal no 3 de tempestade tropical de Macau na dia.png Aspecto do sinal no 3 de tempestade tropical de Macau em noite.png A definite warning that a tropical cyclone is expected to come near enough to Hong Kong to cause strong winds in Hong Kong. It normally gives 12 hours warning of strong winds generally over Hong Kong at sea level, but in exposed areas, winds may become strong sooner.

Implication for citizens: Do not need to go to kindergartens, some places and events.

Strong wind with a sustained speed of 41–62 km/h≥ 110 km/h
No.8. NW No. 8 Northwest Gale or Storm Signal.png Aspecto do sinal no 8 NW de tempestade tropical de Macau na dia.png Aspecto do sinal no 8 NW de tempestade tropical de Macau em noite.png Gale or storm force wind.

4 different symbols for different directions.

Implication for citizens: usually no need to go to school or work for most people if hosted before a certain hours before official work hours; depends on official announcement & employment contracts.

sustained speed of 63–117 km/h from the northwest, southwest, northeast, southeast quadrants respectively≥ 180 km/h.
No.8. SW No. 8 Southwest Gale or Storm Signal.png Aspecto do sinal no 8 SW de tempestade tropical de Macau na dia.png Aspecto do sinal no 8 SW de tempestade tropical de Macau em noite.png
No.8. NE No. 8 Northeast Gale or Storm Signal.png Aspecto do sinal no 8 NE de tempestade tropical de Macau na dia.png Aspecto do sinal no 8 NE de tempestade tropical de Macau em noite.png
No.8. SE No. 8 Southeast Gale or Storm Signal.png Aspecto do sinal no 8 SE de tempestade tropical de Macau na dia.png Aspecto do sinal no 8 SE de tempestade tropical de Macau em noite.png
No. 9 No. 09 Increasing Gale or Storm Signal.png Aspecto do sinal no 9 de tempestade tropical de Macau na dia.png Aspecto do sinal no 9 de tempestade tropical de Macau em noite.png (Hong Kong) Gale or storm force wind is increasing or expected to increase significantly in strength. / (Macau) The centre of a tropical cyclone is approaching and Macau is expected to be severely affected.It usually implies that wind speeds are expected to reach the range 88 to 117 kilometres per hour.
No. 10 No. 10 Hurricane Signal.png Aspecto do sinal no 10 de tempestade tropical de Macau na dia.png Aspecto do sinal no 10 de tempestade tropical de Macau em noite.png Hurricane-force wind.

Implication for citizens: no need to go to work or school. Most public transportation stop.

winds range upwards from 118 kilometres per hour.≥ 220 km/h

Japan

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) is the government agency responsible for gathering and providing results for the public in Japan, that are obtained from data based on daily scientific observation and research into natural phenomena in the fields of meteorology, hydrology, seismology and volcanology, among other related scientific fields. Its headquarters is located in Tokyo.

JMA is also designated one of the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC) of the World Meteorological Organization. It has the responsibility for weather forecasting, tropical cyclone naming and distribution of warnings for tropical cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific region.

Philippines

PAGASA's
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS) [28]
Warning SignalMeaning
TCWS #1winds of 39–61 km/h (21–33 kn; 24–38 mph)
are prevailing or expected to occur within 36 hours
TCWS #2winds of 62–88 km/h (33–48 kn; 39–55 mph)
are prevailing or expected to occur within 24 hours
TCWS #3winds of 89–117 km/h (48–63 kn; 55–73 mph)
are prevailing or expected to occur within 18 hours
TCWS #4winds of 118–184 km/h (64–99 kn; 73–114 mph)
are prevailing or expected to occur within 12 hours
TCWS #5winds of 185 km/h (100 kn; 115 mph) or greater
are prevailing or expected to occur within 12 hours

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) releases tropical cyclone warnings in the form of Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS, or "wind signals"). [29] Within this warning system, an area having a wind signal may be under:

These wind signals are hoisted when an area (in the Philippines only) is about to be directly affected by tropical cyclone winds. Wind signals for specific areas can be escalated to higher signal levels (and the lead times shortened consequently) as a tropical cyclone gains strength and/or gets closer to the areas about to be affected. De-escalation and/or lifting of wind signals are implemented once a tropical cyclone weakens and/or gets farther away from the affected areas. The lead time is also only valid for the first issuance.

Vietnam

Vietnam recognises its typhoon season from the beginning of June through to the end of November, [30] with an average of four to six typhoons hitting the country annually. [31] Any tropical cyclones here are monitored by the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF), which is the nation's official meteorological agency and was established in January 2003. The NCHMF tracks a storm should it enter the agency's monitoring area range which is within the East Sea to the west of 120°E and north of 5°N. Any storm that enters this area is assigned a number, and is set according to its sequence of its occurrence – as for instance with Bão số 1 etc., which translates to "Storm no. 1". Bão comes from "暴', meaning ferocious, violent or vicious, but in vernacular Vietnamese has come to mean "storm".

In 2014, the Vietnamese government issued Decree no.44/2014, introduced five warning levels, but NCHMF only use three out of five levels to issue typhoon warnings:

- "Disaster Risk Alert - Level 3" (High Alert), decorated with orange

- "Disaster Risk Alert - Level 4" (Very High Alert), decorated with red

- "Disaster Risk Alert - Level 5" (Disaster Alert), decorated with pink

South Pacific basin

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology will issue a cyclone watch for a specified part of Australia, when a tropical cyclone is expected to cause gale-force winds in excess of 62 km/h (40 mph) within 24–48 hours and subsequently make landfall. [32] A cyclone warning is subsequently issued for a specified part of Australia when a tropical cyclone, is expected to cause or is causing gale-force winds in excess of 62 km/h (40 mph) within 24 hours and is subsequently expected to make landfall. [32]

The Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) issues a tropical cyclone alert for the Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Nauru, Niue, Tokelau and Tuvalu, when a tropical cyclone has a significant probability of causing gale-force winds or stronger winds within 24–48 hours. [33] Gale, storm and hurricane-force wind warnings are subsequently issued for the above areas by FMS, when a tropical cyclone is either causing or expected to cause either gale storm or hurricane-force winds within 24 hours. [33]

Météo-France is responsible for the issuance of tropical cyclone watches and warnings for New Caledonia, Wallis and Futuna, French Polynesia and the Pitcairn Islands. [33] The National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the Solomon Islands, Samoa, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Tonga, New Zealand, Vanuatu, Timor Leste and American Samoa are responsible for their own watches and warnings. [33]

Indian Ocean systems

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD/RSMC New Delhi) is responsible for tracking tropical cyclones within the North Indian Ocean. Météo-France in Réunion (MFR/RSMC La Reunion) is responsible for the issuing advisories and tracking of tropical cyclones in the southwest part of the basin, however, the naming of systems is deferred to the Mauritius and Madagascar weather services.

India

The IMD issues warnings in four stages for the Indian coast.

Cyclonic storm conditions mean what winds in excess of 63 km/h (39 mph) are possible. [34]

Mauritius

Mauritius Meteorological Services is responsible for naming tropical systems in the South-West Indian Ocean between 55°E and 90°E. They issue four different levels of cyclone warnings for the islands of Mauritius and Rodrigues.

Réunion

Météo-France issues five levels of alerts for the French overseas department and region of Réunion. [36]

Military advisories

HURCON/TCCOR

The United States Department of Defense uses a multi-stage system called the Hurricane Condition (HURCON) in the North Atlantic and the Northeast Pacific and the Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness (TCCOR) in the western Pacific to prepare bases and evacuate assets and personnel in advance of adverse weather associated with tropical cyclones. [37]

The alerts are recommended by weather facilities either on base or by central sites like the National Hurricane Center or the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and are generally related to the timing and potential for destructive sustained windspeeds of above 50 kn (58 mph; 93 km/h). [37] Recommendations are then considered by base or area commanders along with other subjective factors for setting the alert status like assets, holidays or the bases experience in emergency preparedness. [37] The bases prefer to set these alerts sequentially, from HURCON or TCCOR 5 with destructive winds expected within 96 hours, through levels 4, 3, 2 and if needed to a series of four different level 1 conditions, however depending on the cyclone's movement or location some of these signals can be skipped. [37] [38] After a system passes and stops affecting the base, the authorities can decide to revert to the lowest level or stay in a heightened approach if another tropical cyclone is approaching. [37]

See also

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Typhoon Kai-tak (2012)</span> Pacific typhoon in 2012

Typhoon Kai-tak, known in the Philippines as Tropical Storm Helen, was a mild tropical cyclone that affected China, Vietnam and Laos. It was the seventh typhoon and the thirteenth named storm of the 2012 Pacific typhoon season. The storm killed 41 people and caused a sum of US$765 million in losses. Kai-tak can be tracked back to the broad area of disturbance embedded in a monsoonal trough that was first spotted, early on August 10. It was only at midnight, on August 16, when the JMA officially declared Kai-tak a typhoon. On the morning of August 17, the windspeed dropped to 60 knots and was no longer a typhoon. The typhoon caused heavy damage in China's two provinces killing four people and causing huge economic loss. Kai-Tak slammed the northern Philippines triggering flash floods and landslides and killing at least ten people, one week after deadly monsoon rains battered the country. In Vietnam, Kai-Tak has stormed across the country's north bringing high winds and floods to several areas including the capital Hanoi.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Typhoon Usagi (2013)</span> Pacific typhoon in 2013

Typhoon Usagi, known in the Philippines as Typhoon Odette, was a violent tropical cyclone which affected Taiwan, the Philippines, China, and Hong Kong in September 2013. Usagi, or which means the constellation Lepus in Japanese, was the fourth typhoon and the nineteenth tropical storm in the basin. Developing into a tropical storm east of the Philippines late on September 16, Usagi began explosive intensification on September 19 and ultimately became a violent and large typhoon. Afterwards, the system weakened slowly, crossed the Bashi Channel on September 21, and made landfall over Guangdong, China on September 22.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Cyclone Kenneth</span>

Intense Tropical Cyclone Kenneth was the strongest tropical cyclone to make landfall in Mozambique since modern records began. The cyclone also caused significant damage in the Comoro Islands and Tanzania. The fourteenth tropical storm, record-breaking tenth tropical cyclone, and ninth intense tropical cyclone of the 2018–19 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season, Kenneth formed from a vortex that the Météo-France office on La Réunion (MFR) first mentioned on 17 April. The MFR monitored the system over the next several days, before designating it as Tropical Disturbance 14 on 21 April. The disturbance was located in a favorable environment to the north of Madagascar, which allowed it to strengthen into a tropical depression and later a tropical storm, both on the next day. The storm then began a period of rapid intensification, ultimately peaking as an intense tropical cyclone with 10-minute sustained winds of 215 km/h (134 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 934 hPa. At that time, Kenneth began to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle and weakened slightly, before making landfall later that day as an intense tropical cyclone. As a result of land interaction, Kenneth became disorganised as it made landfall and rapidly degenerated thereafter. The storm then shifted southward, with the MFR cancelling all major warnings for inland cities. Kenneth was reclassified as an overland depression after landfall, with the MFR issuing its warning at midnight UTC on 26 April. Thunderstorm activity developed off the coast of Mozambique on 27 April as the system began drifting northward. Kenneth re-emerged off the coast of northern Mozambique on 28 April, before dissipating on the next day.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals</span> Weather alerts in the Philippines

The Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals are tropical cyclone alert levels issued by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) to areas within the Philippines that may be affected by tropical cyclone winds and their associated hazards.

References

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  16. ↑ 广州市防风工作方案
  17. ↑ 广东省台风、暴雨、寒冷预警信号发布规定
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