2021 Ohio's 15th congressional district special election

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Ohio's 15th congressional district special election
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←  2020 November 2, 2021 2022  →
Ohio's 15th congressional district
Turnout32.25% [1]
  Mike Carey 117th Congress (cropped).jpg Rep. Allison Russo - Rally for Abortion Justice - March for Women 2021- Columbus.jpg
Nominee Mike Carey Allison Russo
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote94,50167,588
Percentage58.3%41.7%
2021 United States House of Representatives general election in Ohio's 15th congressional district by county.svg
2021 Ohio's 15th congressional district special election results by precinct.svg
U.S. Representative before election

Steve Stivers
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Mike Carey
Republican

On May 16, 2021, Representative Steve Stivers resigned from his seat in the United States House of Representatives to become president and CEO of the Ohio Chamber of Commerce. [2] Following Stivers' official communication of his intent to resign, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine announced that the special election to fill the remainder of his term would be held on November 2, 2021, with the primary election held on August 3, concurrent with the special election in Ohio's 11th congressional district. [3] [4] In the general election on November 2, Republican nominee Mike Carey defeated Democratic nominee Allison Russo by roughly 17 percentage points.

Contents

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Mike Carey
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Stephanie Kunze

Organizations

Jeff LaRe
U.S. Representatives
State Representatives
Organizations
  • Left or Right Politics
Bob Peterson
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
County commissioners
Ron Hood
U.S. Senators
Ruth Edmonds
Individuals

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error
John Adams
Mike Carey
Eric Clark
Thad Cooperrider
Ruth Edmonds
Ron Hood
Thomas Hwang
Stephanie Kunze
Jeff LaRe
Bob Peterson
Omar Tarazi
Undecided
Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R) [20] [A] June 23–24, 2021400 (LV)± 4.9%<1%20%0%2%<1%7%3%6%9%7%1%44%

Results

Results by county Carey 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% Peterson 50-60% 2021 United States House of Representatives Republican special election primary in Ohio's 15th congressional district by county.svg
Results by county
  Carey
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Peterson
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results [21]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mike Carey 18,805 36.3
Republican Jeff LaRe 6,77613.1
Republican Ron Hood 6,67612.9
Republican Bob Peterson 6,40712.4
Republican Ruth Edmonds5,0909.8
Republican Thomas Hwang2,4994.8
Republican Stephanie Kunze 2,3634.6
Republican Thad Cooperrider1,0762.1
Republican Omar Tarazi9071.7
Republican John Adams1730.3
Republican Eric M. Clark830.2
Total votes51,855 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Greg Betts [5]

Declined

Endorsements

Allison Russo
U.S. Senators
Local officials
Organizations

Results

Results by county Russo Russo--70-80% Russo--80-90% 2021 United States House of Representatives Democratic special election primary in Ohio's 15th congressional district by county.svg
Results by county
Russo
  •   Russo—70–80%
  •   Russo—80–90%
Democratic primary results [21]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Allison Russo 13,704 84.2
Democratic Greg Betts2,57615.8
Total votes16,280 100.0

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [31] Likely RAugust 4, 2021
Inside Elections [32] Solid ROctober 27, 2021
Sabato's Crystal Ball [33] Likely RAugust 4, 2021

Endorsements

Mike Carey (R)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Allison Russo (D)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
Local officials
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Mike
Carey (R)		Allison
Russo (D)		Undecided
Emerson College [40] October 14–16, 2021445 (LV)± 4.6%50%39%11%
Notes
  1. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Results

2021 Ohio's 15th congressional district special election [1]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Mike Carey 94,501 58.30% –5.11
Democratic Allison Russo 67,58841.70%+5.13
Total votes162,089 100.0%
Turnout [a] 165,02632.25%
Registered electors 511,773
Republican hold
By county
County [1] Mike Carey
Republican 		Allison Russo
Democratic 		MarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%
Athens (part)3,61137.06,16063.02,54926.09,771
Clinton 5,97278.51,63221.54,34057.07,604
Fairfield 21,01165.411,11734.69,89430.832,128
Fayette (part)91884.516815.575069.01,086
Franklin (part)29,84245.236,23054.86,3889.666,072
Hocking 3,75668.81,70131.22,05537.65,457
Madison 6,53572.72,45027.34,08545.48,985
Morgan 2,53374.487325.61,66048.83,406
Perry 5,48772.52,05427.23,43345.37,541
Pickaway 8,32173.82,95626.25,36547.611,277
Ross (part)4,63373.91,63826.12,99547.86,271
Vinton 1,88275.660924.41,27351.22,491
Total94,50158.367,58841.726,91316.6162,089

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Notes

  1. ↑ Including invalid votes or ballots not counted for either candidate

Partisan clients

  1. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Mike Carey's campaign.

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Steven Ernst Stivers is an American businessman and politician who was the U.S. representative for Ohio's 15th congressional district from 2011 until 2021. He is a member of the Republican Party, and became chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee in 2017. Stivers previously served in the Ohio Senate, representing the 15th district. He is a major general in the Ohio Army National Guard, serving as the Assistant Adjutant General, and served active duty in Iraq as a battalion commander until December 2005. On May 16, 2021, he resigned his seat to become the president and CEO of the Ohio Chamber of Commerce.

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References

  1. 1 2 3 "November 2, 2021 Special Congressional General Election Official Canvass". Ohio Secretary of State . Retrieved April 6, 2022.
  2. ↑ "Rep. Steve Stivers will resign from Congress to join Ohio Chamber". WCMH-TV. April 19, 2021. Retrieved April 19, 2021.
  3. ↑ Clay, Jarrod (April 26, 2021). "Gov. DeWine calls special election for Ohio's 15th Congressional District". WTTE. Retrieved April 26, 2021.
  4. ↑ "Governor DeWine calls special election for Ohio's 15th Congressional District". Highland County Press. Archived from the original on April 26, 2021. Retrieved April 26, 2021.
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 "12 Republicans, two Democrats vie for 15th Congressional District seat to replace Steve Stivers". The Columbus Dispatch. May 17, 2021. Retrieved May 17, 2021.
  6. ↑ @CATargetBot (May 5, 2021). "'NEW 2021 FEC F2, Ruth Edmonds (REP), #OH15 (R-Stivers)'" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  7. ↑ "Faith-Based and Community Initiatives" . Retrieved May 9, 2021.
  8. 1 2 Bischoff, Laura A. "Five Republicans in central Ohio already seeking to replace Rep. Steve Stivers in Congress". The Columbus Dispatch. Retrieved April 29, 2021.
  9. ↑ "State Senator Bob Peterson announces candidacy for U.S. Congress". Highland County Press. April 20, 2021. Archived from the original on April 21, 2021. Retrieved April 21, 2021.
  10. ↑ @CATargetBot (May 7, 2021). "'NEW 2021 FEC F2, Omar Tarazi (REP), #OH15 (R-Stivers)'" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  11. ↑ "Law Office of Attorney Omar Tarazi" . Retrieved May 9, 2021.
  12. ↑ Brian Stewart [@BrianStewartOH] (June 4, 2021). "I am deeply grateful to the volunteers, friends, donors - and most of all, my family - who helped us get #StewartForCongress off to an amazing start. However, it's become clear that this is not yet my time, and I am suspending my campaign. My full statement is below. #OH15" (Tweet). Retrieved June 4, 2021– via Twitter.
  13. 1 2 Haley BeMiller (June 8, 2021). "Former President Donald Trump endorses Mike Carey in 15th Congressional District race". The Columbus Dispatch.
  14. ↑ "Stefanik endorses Trump candidate in Ohio GOP primary race". July 13, 2021.
  15. ↑ Steinhauser, Paul (June 22, 2021). "Conservative PAC that supports female candidates makes initial 2022 endorsements". Fox News. Archived from the original on June 30, 2021. Retrieved July 2, 2021.
  16. ↑ Barron, Jeff; BeMiller, Haley (June 2, 2021). "Steve Stivers endorses Jeff LaRe as his 15th Congressional District replacement". Lancaster Eagle-Gazette . Retrieved June 2, 2021.
  17. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Reutter, Justin (June 9, 2021). "Meet the candidate: Senator Bob Peterson". Chillicothe Gazette . Retrieved June 12, 2021.
  18. ↑ Alex Isenstadt (July 14, 2021). "'It will be remembered': Trump allies cross him in special election". Politico.
  19. ↑ Colvin, Jill; Beaumont, Thomas; Smyth, Julie Carr (August 2, 2021). "Trump's kingmaker status faces test in Ohio special election". Associated Press.
  20. ↑ Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R)
  21. 1 2 "JasperReports - /Election Summary - Includes Overlaps" (PDF). Franklin County Board of Elections. Retrieved August 27, 2021.
  22. 1 2 Bischoff, Laura A. "Rep. Steve Stivers is out; Central Ohio politicos lining up to replace him". The Columbus Dispatch. Retrieved April 19, 2021.
  23. ↑ Allison Russo [@Russo4Ohio] (May 11, 2021). "We all want our kids and grandkids to have the opportunities they need to put down roots and raise a family of their own here in Ohio someday. Together, we can build an economy that works for all of us. #Russo4Ohio15" (Tweet). Retrieved May 11, 2021– via Twitter.
  24. ↑ @JMBorchardt (May 10, 2021). "State Sen. @TinaMaharath (D) will NOT run for #OH15 to replace Steve Stivers, will stay in the Ohio Senate. "There is more work that needs to be done."" (Tweet). Retrieved May 10, 2021– via Twitter.
  25. ↑ "www.joelnewby.com - D-15 2021 Special Election Statement". joelnewby.com. Retrieved April 25, 2021.
  26. ↑ Behrens, Cole (May 3, 2021). "Patterson bows out of consideration for Stivers' U.S. congress seat" . Retrieved May 3, 2021.
  27. 1 2 3 Peters, Ben (July 7, 2021). "Athens Mayor endorses Democrat Allison Russo in Ohio's 15th Congressional District race". Athens News .
  28. ↑ Reutter, Justin (July 5, 2021). "Democratic challenger hopes to flip 15th Congressional District". Chillicothe Gazette .
  29. 1 2 "this OPEN seat in Ohio is the only red-to-blue pickup opportunity of 2021". Archive of Political Emails. May 11, 2021.
  30. 1 2 3 4 Behrens, Cole (July 7, 2021). "Athens mayor endorses state Rep. Allison Russo for special election". The Athens Messenger .
  31. ↑ Dave Wasserman (August 4, 2021). "OH-11 and OH-15 First Thoughts: These Are Biden and Trump's Parties" . Retrieved December 7, 2021.
  32. ↑ Rothenberg, Stuart (October 27, 2021). "House Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved December 9, 2021.
  33. ↑ Kondik, Kyle (August 5, 2021). "Notes on the State of Politics: August 4, 2021" . Retrieved August 4, 2021.
  34. ↑ Mike Pence [@Mike_Pence] (August 4, 2021). "Congratulations to my friend Mike Carey on winning the Republican nomination in OH-15! With a win this November, MikeCareyOH15 will be a champion for Ohio and America on Day One. Congratulations Mike!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  35. ↑ "Stefanik endorses Trump candidate in Ohio GOP primary race". Fox News. July 13, 2021.
  36. ↑ Gomez, Henry (July 5, 2021). "Biden endorses Allison Russo in special congressional election in Ohio". NBC News .
  37. ↑ Reutter, Justin (November 1, 2021). "Democratic challenger hopes to flip 15th Congressional District". Chillicothe Gazette .
  38. ↑ "EMILY's List Endorses Allison Russo for Congress". EMILY's List . August 10, 2021. Retrieved October 26, 2021.
  39. ↑ "LCV ACTION FUND ENDORSES SHONTEL BROWN AND ALLISON RUSSO FOR CONGRESS". League of Conservation Voters . September 9, 2021. Retrieved October 26, 2021.
  40. ↑ Emerson College
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