2023 Rhode Island's 1st congressional district special election

Last updated

2023 Rhode Island's 1st congressional district special election
Flag of Rhode Island.svg
  2022 November 7, 2023 2024  

Rhode Island's 1st congressional district
  Gabe Amo 118th Cong (cropped).jpg Gerry Leonard Jr Military Portrait.jpg
Nominee Gabe Amo Gerry Leonard Jr.
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote43,29023,393
Percentage64.7%35.0%

2023 Rhode Island's 1st congressional district special election results map by municipality.svg
Municipality results
Amo:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     >90%
Leonard:     50–60%

U.S. Representative before election

David Cicilline
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Gabe Amo
Democratic

The 2023 Rhode Island's 1st congressional district special election was held on November 7, 2023. [1] The seat became vacant following incumbent Democratic representative David Cicilline's resignation on May 31, 2023, to become the president and CEO of the Rhode Island Foundation. [2] This was the first congressional special election in Rhode Island since the 1967 2nd district special election and the first special election in the 1st district since 1935.

Contents

The 1st district typically elects Democrats. Cicilline was re-elected with 64.0% of the vote in 2022, while Joe Biden won the district with 63.8% of the vote in 2020. [3] The last time a Republican was elected to represent the 1st district was in 1992, when Ronald Machtley won re-election for a third term. Gabe Amo became the first African American to represent Rhode Island in Congress following the election. [4] Amo has worked in different governmental roles, most recently working in the Biden administration in the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs. [5] Leonard served in the U.S. Marine Corps for more than 30 years, serving in Afghanistan, Iraq, Kuwait and Somalia. [6]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Disqualified

Declined

Endorsements

Nick Autiello (withdrawn)
Organizations
Gabe Amo
Federal officials
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
Local officials
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers
Pamela Azar (withdrawn)
Organizations
Walter Berbrick
Organizations
Stephen Casey
Organizations
Sandra Cano
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Labor unions
Individuals
  • Donald Carlson, senior executive director of the Tsai Leadership Program at Yale Law School and former 2023 candidate for this seat [15]
Donald Carlson (withdrawn)
U.S. representatives
Local officials
Organizations
Sabina Matos
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Labor unions
Ana Quezada
State legislators
  • Jose Batista, state representative from the 12th district (2021–present) [19]
  • Jeanine Calkin, former state senator from the 30th district (2017–2018, 2021–2023) (her policy co-chair) [19]
  • Enrique Sanchez, state representative from the 9th district (2023–present) [19]
  • Scott Slater, state representative from the 10th district (2009–present) [19]
Local officials
Aaron Regunberg
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of August 16, 2023
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Gabe Amo (D)$604,406$449,164$155,242
Stephanie Beauté (D)$16,201$11,144$5,056
Walter Berbrick (D)$183,456$132,976$50,480
Sandra Cano (D)$307,352 [lower-alpha 2] $247,796$59,556
Stephen Casey (D)$87,008$48,646$1,817
John Gonclaves (D)$190,236$164,644$25,592
Sabina Matos (D)$578,972 [lower-alpha 3] $452,718$126,254
Ana Quezada (D)$87,255$57,869$29,385
Aaron Regunberg (D)$629,821$438,556$191,265
Source: Federal Election Commission [85]

Debates and candidate forums

No.DateHostModeratorLink Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Gabe AmoStephanie BeautéWalter Berbrick Sandra Cano Donald Carlson Stephen Casey Spencer Dickinson John Goncalves Sabina Matos Ana Quezada Aaron Regunberg Allen Waters
1Jul. 19, 2023Ray-ality TVRaymond Baccari Jr.
Ryan Lukowicz
YouTube (part 1)
YouTube (part 2)
PPPPPPPPPPPP
2Aug. 17, 2023 Roger Williams University Edward Fitzpatrick
Steph Machado
YouTube PPPPPPNPPPPN
3Aug. 22, 2023 Rhode Island College
Rhode Island PBS
The Providence Journal
The Public's Radio
Patrick Anderson
Ian Donnis
YouTube PPPPPPNPPPPN
4 [86] Aug. 31, 2023 WJAR Brian Crandall YouTube NPNPWPNNNPPP
5Sep. 1, 2023 WJAR Brian Crandall YouTube PNPNWNPPPNNN

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 4]
Margin
of error
Marvin AbneyGabe AmoNick AutielloSandra CanoDon CarlsonJohn GoncalvesSabina MatosAaron RegunbergOtherUndecided
August 27, 2023Carlson withdraws from the race
Global Strategy Group (D) [upper-alpha 1] August 15–17, 2023451 (V)19%11%8%11%28%8% [lower-alpha 5] 15%
July 19, 2023Autiello withdraws from the race
July 18, 2023Abney is disqualified from the race
Lake Research Partners (D) [upper-alpha 2] July 12–16, 2023300 (V)4%6%5%7%2%4%20%12%33%
RMG Research [upper-alpha 3] June 28–30, 2023300 (LV)± 5.7%8%3%17%22%48%
Expedition Strategies [upper-alpha 4] June 5–8, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%4%3%3%6%2%5%22%9%4% [lower-alpha 6] 43%

Results

Primary results by municipality:
Amo
20-30%
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
Regunberg
20-30%
Cano
30-40%
Casey
30-40% 2023 Rhode Island's 1st congressional district special Democratic primary results map by municipality.svg
Primary results by municipality:
  Amo
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Regunberg
  •   20–30%
  Cano
  •   30–40%
  Casey
  •   30–40%
Democratic primary results [87]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Gabe Amo 12,946 32.4
Democratic Aaron Regunberg 9,96024.9
Democratic Sandra Cano 5,57413.9
Democratic Sabina Matos 3,2108.0
Democratic Stephen Casey 2,3295.8
Democratic Walter Berbrick1,4533.6
Democratic Ana Quezada 1,4153.5
Democratic John Goncalves1,1182.8
Democratic Donald Carlson (withdrawn)6901.7
Democratic Allen Waters5031.3
Democratic Stephanie Beauté4281.1
Democratic Spencer Dickinson 3540.9
Total votes39,980 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified

Declined

Endorsements

Gerry Leonard Jr.
State legislators
Political parties

Debate and forum

2023 Rhode Island's 1st congressional district republican primary debate and candidate forum
No.DateHostModeratorLink Republican Republican
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Terri FlynnGerry Leonard
1Aug. 24, 2023 The Providence Journal
The Public's Radio
Rhode Island PBS
Patrick Anderson
Ian Donnis
YouTube PP
2Sep. 1, 2023 WJAR Gene Valicenti YouTube PP

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of August 16, 2023
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Gerry Leonard Jr. (R)$122,221 [lower-alpha 7] $11,138$111,082
Source: Federal Election Commission [85]

Results

Primary results by municipality:
Leonard Jr.
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90%
>90% 2023 Rhode Island's 1st congressional district special Republican primary results map by municipality.svg
Primary results by municipality:
  Leonard Jr.
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
Republican primary results [87]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Gerry Leonard Jr. 3,076 75.7
Republican Terri Flynn98924.3
Total votes4,065 100.0

Independents

Disqualified

Declined

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Inside Elections [95] Safe DFebruary 23, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [96] Safe DFebruary 22, 2023
The Cook Political Report [97] Safe DJuly 25, 2023
Politico [98] Safe DAugust 29, 2023

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 4]
Margin
of error
Gabe
Amo (D)
Gerry
Leonard (R)
Undecided
Salve Regina University/Embold Research October 12–17, 2023386 (RV)± 4.0%46%35%15%

Results

2023 Rhode Island's 1st congressional district special election
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Gabe Amo 43,290 64.73 +0.70
Republican Gerry Leonard Jr.23,39334.98−0.78
Write-in 1930.29+0.06
Total votes66,876 100.00
Democratic hold
By county
County Gabe Amo
Democratic
Gerry Leonard Jr.
Republican
Write-inMarginTotal votes
#%#%#%#%
Bristol 7,46567.16%3,61832.55%330.30%3,84734.61%11,116
Newport 10,02562.97%5,86536.84%310.19%4,16026.13%15,921
Providence (part)25,80064.76%13,91034.92%1290.32%11,89029.85%39,839
Total43,29064.73%23,39334.98%1930.29%19,89729.75%66,876

See also

Notes

  1. This poll was sponsored by Amo's campaign
  2. This poll was sponsored by Autiello's campaign
  3. This poll was sponsored by US Term Limits. While the group has not endorsed a candidate in this race, Amo has signed their term limits pledge.
  4. This poll was sponsored by Matos's campaign
  1. 5 from Rhode Island, 1 from New Hampshire
  2. $80,000 of this total was self-funded by Cano
  3. $20,000 of this total was self-funded by Matos
  4. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. "Another candidate not mentioned here" with 8%
  6. Stephen Casey and Ana Quezada with 2%; Walter Berbick with 0%
  7. $50,000 of this total was self-funded by Leonard

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  90. katherine gregg [@kathyprojo] (February 22, 2023). "Asked if he will run for CD1, Republican state Rep. @BrianCNewberry told me: "I'd prefer not to be bankrupt and divorced, intriguing as the idea is."" (Tweet) via Twitter.
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  98. Gibson, Brittany (August 29, 2023). "Proxy war over safe seat pits Democratic factions against one another". Politico. Retrieved September 5, 2023.
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