Ecological forecasting

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Ecological forecasting uses knowledge of physics, ecology and physiology to predict how ecological populations, communities, or ecosystems will change in the future in response to environmental factors such as climate change. The goal of the approach is to provide natural resource managers with information to anticipate and respond to short and long-term climate conditions. [1]

Contents

Changing climate conditions present ecologists with the challenge to predict where, when and with what magnitude changes are likely to occur so that we can mitigate or at least prepare for them. Ecological forecasting applies existing knowledge of ecosystem interactions to predict how changes in environmental factors might result in changes to the ecosystems as a whole.

One of the most complete sources on the topic is the book Ecological Forecasting written by Michael C. Dietze. [2]

Methods

Ecologists shifted towards Bayesian methods starting 1990, when improvements in computational power allowed the use of more demanding computational statistics such as Hierarchical Bayes. [3] [4] This kind of analysis employs a Bayesian Network that provides a probabilistic graphical model of a set of parameters, and can accommodate unobserved variables. A Bayesian structure is a probabilistic approach that is flexible for high-dimensional data, and allows ecologists to separate sources of uncertainty in their models. [3] [5]

Forecasts can leverage Bayes' Theorem and be iteratively updated with new observations using a process called Data Assimilation. [2] Data Assimilation combines observations on different temporal and geographic scales with forecasts, all of which combine to provide more information than any one data source alone. [2] Some ecologists have found this framework to be useful for ecological models as they often rely on a wide range of data sources. [3]

Models

Ecological forecasting varies in spatial and temporal extent, as well as in what is being forecast (presence, abundance, diversity, production, etc.).

Forecasting examples

Biodiversity

Using fossil evidence, studies have shown that vertebrate biodiversity has grown exponentially through Earth's history and that biodiversity is entwined with the diversity of Earth's habitats.

"Animals have not yet invaded 2/3 of Earth's habitats, and it could be that without human influence biodiversity will continue to increase in an exponential fashion."

Sahney et al. [11]

Temperature

External image
Searchtool.svg Intertidal temperature forecasting
University of South Carolina

Forecasts of temperature, shown in the diagram at the right as colored dots, along the North Island of New Zealand in the austral summer of 2007. As per the temperature scale shown at the bottom, intertidal temperatures were forecast to exceed 30 °C at some locations on February 19; surveys later showed that these sites corresponded to large die-offs in burrowing sea urchins.

Terrestrial Carbon Cycle

Forecasts of terrestrial carbon flux have been used to inform earth system models (ESMs). [12] Some approaches use measurements from eddy covariance towers to predict carbon pools. [13] In a 2015 paper, researchers found that carbon content in terrestrial ecosystems tend to converge to an equilibrium, and the rate of approach to equilibrium is intrinsically predictable. [12]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ecology</span> Study of organisms and their environment

Ecology is the study of the relationships among living organisms, including humans, and their physical environment. Ecology considers organisms at the individual, population, community, ecosystem, and biosphere level. Ecology overlaps with the closely related sciences of biogeography, evolutionary biology, genetics, ethology, and natural history.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ecosystem</span> Community of living organisms together with the nonliving components of their environment

An ecosystem consists of all the organisms and the physical environment with which they interact. These biotic and abiotic components are linked together through nutrient cycles and energy flows. Energy enters the system through photosynthesis and is incorporated into plant tissue. By feeding on plants and on one another, animals play an important role in the movement of matter and energy through the system. They also influence the quantity of plant and microbial biomass present. By breaking down dead organic matter, decomposers release carbon back to the atmosphere and facilitate nutrient cycling by converting nutrients stored in dead biomass back to a form that can be readily used by plants and microbes.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Theoretical ecology</span>

Theoretical ecology is the scientific discipline devoted to the study of ecological systems using theoretical methods such as simple conceptual models, mathematical models, computational simulations, and advanced data analysis. Effective models improve understanding of the natural world by revealing how the dynamics of species populations are often based on fundamental biological conditions and processes. Further, the field aims to unify a diverse range of empirical observations by assuming that common, mechanistic processes generate observable phenomena across species and ecological environments. Based on biologically realistic assumptions, theoretical ecologists are able to uncover novel, non-intuitive insights about natural processes. Theoretical results are often verified by empirical and observational studies, revealing the power of theoretical methods in both predicting and understanding the noisy, diverse biological world.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Biogeography</span> Study of the distribution of species and ecosystems in geographic space and through geological time

Biogeography is the study of the distribution of species and ecosystems in geographic space and through geological time. Organisms and biological communities often vary in a regular fashion along geographic gradients of latitude, elevation, isolation and habitat area. Phytogeography is the branch of biogeography that studies the distribution of plants. Zoogeography is the branch that studies distribution of animals. Mycogeography is the branch that studies distribution of fungi, such as mushrooms.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Urban ecology</span> Scientific study of living organisms

Urban ecology is the scientific study of the relation of living organisms with each other and their surroundings in an urban environment. An urban environment refers to environments dominated by high-density residential and commercial buildings, paved surfaces, and other urban-related factors that create a unique landscape. The goal of urban ecology is to achieve a balance between human culture and the natural environment.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Environmental degradation</span> Any change or disturbance to the environment perceived to be deleterious or undesirable

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Forestation</span>

Forestation is a vital ecological process where forests are established and grown through afforestation and reforestation efforts. Afforestation involves planting trees on previously non-forested lands, while reforestation focuses on replanting trees in areas that were once deforested. This process plays an important role in restoring degraded forests, enhancing ecosystems, promoting carbon sequestration, and biodiversity conservation.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Restoration ecology</span> Scientific study of renewing and restoring ecosystems

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Functional ecology</span>

Functional ecology is a branch of ecology that focuses on the roles, or functions, that species play in the community or ecosystem in which they occur. In this approach, physiological, anatomical, and life history characteristics of the species are emphasized. The term "function" is used to emphasize certain physiological processes rather than discrete properties, describe an organism's role in a trophic system, or illustrate the effects of natural selective processes on an organism. This sub-discipline of ecology represents the crossroads between ecological patterns and the processes and mechanisms that underlie them. It focuses on traits represented in large number of species and can be measured in two ways – the first being screening, which involves measuring a trait across a number of species, and the second being empiricism, which provides quantitative relationships for the traits measured in screening. Functional ecology often emphasizes an integrative approach, using organism traits and activities to understand community dynamics and ecosystem processes, particularly in response to the rapid global changes occurring in earth's environment.

The following outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to ecology:

Patch dynamics is an ecological perspective that the structure, function, and dynamics of ecological systems can be understood through studying their interactive patches. Patch dynamics, as a term, may also refer to the spatiotemporal changes within and among patches that make up a landscape. Patch dynamics is ubiquitous in terrestrial and aquatic systems across organizational levels and spatial scales. From a patch dynamics perspective, populations, communities, ecosystems, and landscapes may all be studied effectively as mosaics of patches that differ in size, shape, composition, history, and boundary characteristics.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ecological resilience</span> Capacity of ecosystems to resist and recover from change

In ecology, resilience is the capacity of an ecosystem to respond to a perturbation or disturbance by resisting damage and recovering quickly. Such perturbations and disturbances can include stochastic events such as fires, flooding, windstorms, insect population explosions, and human activities such as deforestation, fracking of the ground for oil extraction, pesticide sprayed in soil, and the introduction of exotic plant or animal species. Disturbances of sufficient magnitude or duration can profoundly affect an ecosystem and may force an ecosystem to reach a threshold beyond which a different regime of processes and structures predominates. When such thresholds are associated with a critical or bifurcation point, these regime shifts may also be referred to as critical transitions.

Tropical ecology is the study of the relationships between the biotic and abiotic components of the tropics, or the area of the Earth that lies between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn. The tropical climate experiences hot, humid weather and rainfall year-round. While many might associate the region solely with the rainforests, the tropics are home to a wide variety of ecosystems that boast a great wealth of biodiversity, from exotic animal species to seldom-found flora. Tropical ecology began with the work of early English naturalists and eventually saw the establishment of research stations throughout the tropics devoted to exploring and documenting these exotic landscapes. The burgeoning ecological study of the tropics has led to increased conservation education and programs devoted to the climate.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Effects of climate change on plant biodiversity</span>

The history of life on Earth is closely associated with environmental change on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Climate change is a long-term change in the average weather patterns that have come to define Earth’s local, regional and global climates. These changes have a broad range of observed effects that are synonymous with the term. Climate change is any significant long term change in the expected pattern, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. Predicting the effects that climate change will have on plant biodiversity can be achieved using various models, however bioclimatic models are most commonly used.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Species distribution modelling</span> Algorithmic prediction of the distribution of a species across geographic space

Species distribution modelling (SDM), also known as environmental(or ecological) niche modelling (ENM), habitat modelling, predictive habitat distribution modelling, and range mapping uses computer algorithms to predict the distribution of a species across geographic space and time using environmental data. The environmental data are most often climate data (e.g. temperature, precipitation), but can include other variables such as soil type, water depth, and land cover. SDMs are used in several research areas in conservation biology, ecology and evolution. These models can be used to understand how environmental conditions influence the occurrence or abundance of a species, and for predictive purposes (ecological forecasting). Predictions from an SDM may be of a species’ future distribution under climate change, a species’ past distribution in order to assess evolutionary relationships, or the potential future distribution of an invasive species. Predictions of current and/or future habitat suitability can be useful for management applications (e.g. reintroduction or translocation of vulnerable species, reserve placement in anticipation of climate change).

In paleoecology and ecological forecasting, a no-analog community or climate is one that is compositionally different from a baseline for measurement. Alternative naming conventions to describe no-analog communities and climates may include novel, emerging, mosaic, disharmonious and intermingled.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Effects of climate change on ecosystems</span> How increased greenhouse gases are affecting wildlife

Climate change has adversely affected terrestrial and marine ecosystems, including tundras, mangroves, coral reefs, and caves. Increasing global temperature, more frequent occurrence of extreme weather, and rising sea level are examples of the most impactful effects of climate change. Possible consequences of these effects include species decline and extinction and overall significant loss of biodiversity, change within ecosystems, increased prevalence of invasive species, loss of habitats, forests converting from carbon sinks to carbon sources, ocean acidification, disruption of the water cycle, increased occurrence and severity of natural disasters like wildfires and flooding, and lasting effects on species adaptation.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Deforestation in British Columbia</span>

Deforestation in British Columbia has resulted in a net loss of 1.06 million hectares of tree cover between the years 2000 and 2020. More traditional losses have been exacerbated by increased threats from climate change driven fires, increased human activity, and invasive species. The introduction of sustainable forestry efforts such as the Zero Net Deforestation Act seeks to reduce the rate of forest cover loss. In British Columbia, forests cover over 55 million hectares, which is 57.9% of British Columbia's 95 million hectares of land. The forests are mainly composed of coniferous trees, such as pines, spruces and firs.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change and invasive species</span> Increase of invasive organisms caused by climate change

Climate change and invasive species refers to the process of the environmental destabilization caused by climate change. This environmental change facilitates the spread of invasive species — species that are not historically found in a certain region, and often bring about a negative impact to that region's native species. This complex relationship is notable because climate change and invasive species are also considered by the USDA to be two of the top four causes of global biodiversity loss.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Lauren B. Buckley</span> American scientist

Lauren B. Buckley is an evolutionary ecologist and professor of biology at the University of Washington. She researches the relationship between organismal physiological and life history features and response to global climate change.

References

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