History
The United States became the third most-populous country after China and India in the 1990s after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. [1] [2]
The Quad
In early 2007, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe proposed the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, under which India would join a formal multilateral dialogue with Japan, the United States and Australia. [3] [4] This grouping became known as the Quad. [5] [6] is a grouping of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States that is maintained by talks between member countries. The grouping follows the "Tsunami Core Group" and its "new type of diplomacy" developed in response to the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami. [7] The partnership is known formally as the "Quad," not the "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue," noting its nature as a diplomatic, not security, partnership. [8] The "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue" is a misnomer not used officially by the Quad governments.[ citation needed ]
The initiation of an American, Japanese, Australian and Indian defense arrangement, modeled on the concept of a Democratic Peace, was credited to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. [9] The Quad was supposed to establish an "Asian Arc of Democracy", envisioned to ultimately include countries in Central Asia, Mongolia, the Korean Peninsula, and other countries in Southeast Asia: "virtually all the countries on China’s periphery, except for China itself." This led some critics, such as former U.S. State Department official Morton Abramowitz, to call the project "an anti-Chinese move", [10] while others have called it a "democratic challenge" to the projected Chinese century, mounted by Asian powers in coordination with the United States. While China has traditionally favored the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the Quad was viewed as an "Asian NATO;" Daniel Twining of the German Marshall Fund of the United States has written that the arrangement "could lead to military conflict," or could instead "lay an enduring foundation for peace" if China becomes a democratic leader in Asia. [11]
During the 2017 ASEAN Summits in Manila, all four former members led by Abe, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and US President Donald Trump agreed to revive the Quad partnership in order to counter China militarily and diplomatically in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly in the South China Sea. Tensions between Quad members and China have led to fears of what was dubbed by some commentators "a new Cold War" in the region, [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] and the Chinese government responded to the Quad dialogue by issuing formal diplomatic protests to its members, calling it "Asian NATO". [17]
China's opposition
China sent diplomatic protests to all four members of the Quad before any formal convention of its members. [18] In May 2007 in Manila, Australian Prime Minister John Howard participated with other members in the inaugural meeting of the Quad at Cheney's urging, one month after joint naval exercises near Tokyo by India, Japan and the United States. In September 2007 further naval exercises were held in the Bay of Bengal, including Australia. [9] These were followed in October by a further security agreement between Japan and India, ratified during a visit by Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Tokyo, to promote sea lane safety and defence collaboration; Japan had previously established such an agreement only with Australia. [9]
Though the Quadrilateral initiative of the Bush administration improved relationships with New Delhi, it gave the impression of "encircling" China. [19] The security agreement between Japan and India furthermore made China conspicuous as absent on the list of Japan's strategic partners in Asia. [20] These moves appeared to "institutionally alienate" China, the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), and promote a "Washington-centric" ring of alliances in Asia. [19] [20]
The Japanese Prime Minister succeeding Abe, Taro Aso, downplayed the importance of China in the Japan-India pact signed following the creation of the Quad, stating, "There was mention of China – and we do not have any assumption of a third country as a target such as China." Indian Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon similarly argued that the defence agreement was long overdue because of Indian freight trade with Japan, and did not specifically target China. [21] On the cusp of visits to China and meetings with Prime Minister Wen Jiabao and President Hu Jintao in January 2008, the Indian prime minister, Manmohan Singh, declared that "India is not part of any so-called contain China effort," after being asked about the Quad. [22]
Rise of China and India
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| Largest economies in the world by GDP (PPP) in 2025 according to International Monetary Fund estimates [23] |
China and India's economic growth led to observers predicting they will grow in geopolitical influence to shape a "new G3" alongside the United States. [24] [25]
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his opening statement, on 24 May 2022, remarked the Quad has gained a significant place on the world stage and that it is a “force for good” for the Indo-Pacific region. [26] The 2024 Quad meeting was originally set to be hosted by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and was scheduled to be held in January immediately following Republic Day in India. [27] The meeting was then postponed to September in that year and was hosted by US president Joe Biden in Delaware, United States. [28] During a visit by Eric Garcetti, the idea of a QUAD satellite, to be built in co-operation between the US and India was mooted. [29] The summit held on 21 September 2024 committed the nations to the Quad Cancer Moonshot Initiative, and to the elimination of cervical cancer. [30] [31]
The joint statement of the Quad foreign ministers' meeting on 21 January 2025 affirmed strengthening a free and open Indo-Pacific, and its opposition to "any unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo by force or coercion". [32] The statement did not mention the Quad's commitment to denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, [33] signalling the US government's shift to recognize North Korea as nuclear state. [34] [35]
Concept of the Indo-Pacific
India and the United States have played a major role in purposefully redefining the "Asia-Pacific" as the "Indo-Pacific", to deepen trans-regional ties between the Indian and Pacific Ocean areas, and to, in their words, deal more effectively with the rise of China in Asia, the Middle East and Africa. [36] [37] The term "Indo-Pacific" gained traction in the political lexicon and strategic thinking of not only between India and China, but also ASEAN, [38] the European Union, the United Kingdom, France, [39] Germany, [40] and the Netherlands. [41]
World Economic Forum
President of the World Economic Forum Borge Brende promoted the idea of a Group of Three between China, India, and the United States since 2023. [42] Brende noted India in 2023 was "the fastest-growing major economy for the third consecutive year". [25] The same year, Michael Klare argued the G-3 would increasingly shape the twenty-first century given the weakness of Russia displayed during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. [43]
In 2024, Brende reaffirmed his support for the concept of a G3 based on economic growth, saying "This notion of G3 is now becoming a fact". [44] Although some sources claim Brende first coined the term G3, it was used before him. [25] [42] [24]
