2007 California's 37th congressional district special election

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2007 California's 37th congressional district special election
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California's 37th congressional district
  Laura Richardson, official portrait, 111th Congress.jpg 3x4.svg 3x4.svg
Nominee Laura Richardson John Kanaley Daniel Brezenoff
Party Democratic Republican Green
Popular vote15,5595,8371,274
Percentage65.624.65.4
U.S. Representative before election

Juanita Millender-McDonald
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Laura Richardson
Democratic

California's 37th congressional district special election, 2007 was held on August 21, 2007 to replace the seat of Congresswoman Juanita Millender-McDonald, who died of cancer on April 22, 2007. [1] California State Assemblymember Laura Richardson received the plurality of votes in an open primary election on June 26. Since no candidate won a majority of votes in that contest, the special election was held on August 21, in which Richardson was the winner.

Contents

Candidates

Democratic

Republican

Green

Libertarian

Historically Democratic district

The district has been historically Democratic. In the 2004 Presidential election, John Kerry received 74% of the vote and George W. Bush received 25% of the vote. The district has a Cook Partisan Voting Index score of D +27. The district's high African American and Mexican American populations also make the district lean Democrat because those groups have tended to vote with the Democrats. It came as little surprise when Republican John M. Kanaley received 5,309 votes or 25.24% of the total. After the June 26 election, various articles that appeared in the Los Angeles Times and the Long Beach Press-Telegram all but declared Richardson the eventual winner (see references below).

Democratic Party Involvement

Democratic Party endorses Oropeza, May 19, 2007

A spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee told The Hill that the committee had no plans to get involved in the election. [2] Despite making claims to originally stay out of the Congressional race, the Democratic Party endorsed Oropeza on May 19, 2007. Oropeza took 119 of the 168 ballots cast by party delegates, or 71 percent, reaching the 60 percent threshold needed to win the party's endorsement .

Involvement from out of district officials

Richardson accused Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata of having "dumped 130 people here" from outside the district to throw the democratic party vote to Oropeza . In the race, Perata supported fellow State Senator Oropeza. Richardson was endorsed by several California State Assembly members that included Speaker Fabian Nunez, Majority Leader Karen Bass, Assembly member Mervyn Dymally, and former Speaker Willie Brown.

Race

The Black vote

McDonald won only two votes from party delegates at the Democratic party endorsement. The vast majority of black delegates in attendance voted for Richardson, while Oropeza won all but a few of the Latino, white and Filipino delegates. Blacks make up roughly 25% of registered voters. Many black leaders saw this election as a test of their political clout. As Millender-McDonald was Black, Black leaders wanted to hang onto the congressional seat that had been held by an African-American, even as the seat's Latino population has grown rapidly. Black Congresswoman Maxine Waters also endorsed Richardson, as did many black state representatives.

The McDonald factor

Originally, the membership of the Congressional Black Caucus was divided between those who supported Richardson and those who supported Valerie McDonald, daughter of the late Millender-McDonald. McDonald was backed by US Congresswoman Diane Watson and some local churches and other political leaders. McDonald is the executive director of the African American Women Health and Education Foundation in Carson, a nonprofit founded by her mother. Some black leaders feared that the two black candidates would split the vote and lead to an Oropeza victory. Polls that were conducted began to justify that fear. Seeing this fact, many Black leaders began to rally around and throw their support to Richardson over McDonald.

The Latino vote

While the growing Latino vote represented 40% of the district's population, the Latino vote was about 21%. [3] Most major Latino leaders and organizations, including the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, also supported Orepeza.

Labor versus Indian gaming

The race can also be seen as a contest between two of California's interest groups: Labor and Indian gaming. The two groups clashed over five tribal compacts that would doubled the number of slot machines at Indian casinos. Labor groups fought the compacts because they believed the compacts did not adequately protect workers.

Richardson had strong financial support from organized labor that included the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor, which provided volunteers to walk precincts and make phone calls in the final days of the race. The Los Angeles County Federation of Labor spent $275,000 on Richardson's campaign and put more than 1,000 union members on the street, made 45,000 phone calls and distributed 166,000 pieces of mail. [4] Oropeza voted for the compacts. The tribes showed their gratitude by spending $457,000 of independently on television ads in Oropeza's support. Morongo Band of Mission Indians spent $440,000 alone. [4]

Polling

SourceDateKanaley (R)McDonald (D)Oropeza (D)Ramirez (R)Richardson (D)Wilson (D)
Fairbanks, Maslin, Maulin, and Associates Jun 5-7, 20075%7%16%2%25%2%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research May 17–22, 2007N/A16%27%N/A24%N/A
David Binder Research May 5–6, 2007N/A17%26%N/A13%N/A

Results

Of the 25 candidates who originally filed, 17 appeared on the ballot; running were eleven Democrats, four Republicans, one Green, and one Libertarian.

California's 37th congressional district special primary, 2007 [5]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Laura Richardson 11,956 36.5
Democratic Jenny Oropeza 9,96030.4
Democratic Valerie McDonald3,0279.2
Republican John Kanaley 2,425 7.4
Democratic Peter Mathews1,1253.4
Republican Teri Ramirez6121.9
Green Daniel Brezenoff 391 1.2
Republican Jeffrey Leavitt3861.2
Democratic Albert Robles (write-in)3631.1
Democratic Ed Wilson3621.1
Republican L. J. Guillory3611.1
Libertarian Herb Peters 342 1.0
Democratic George Parmer2420.7
Democratic Lee Davis2020.6
Democratic Jeffrey Price1420.4
Democratic Bill Grisolia1410.4
Democratic Felicia Ford1220.4
Democratic Marvin Evans290.1
Invalid or blank votes5481.7
Total votes32,736 100.0
Turnout  12.3
California's 37th congressional district special election, 2007 [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Laura Richardson 15,559 65.6
Republican John Kanaley5,83724.6
Green Daniel Brezenoff1,2745.4
Libertarian Herb Peters5382.3
Independent Lee Davis (write-in)120.1
Independent Christopher Remple (write-in)10.0
Invalid or blank votes4852.0
Total votes23,706 100.0
Turnout  9.0
Democratic hold

Low turnout

Voter turnout was very low during this special election. Many voters were unaware that a special election was occurring. The absentee ballot drives were a part of both sides campaign strategies because of the expected low turnout. Over 10,000 absentee ballots were processed by the Los Angeles County registrar-recorder despite there being 265,000 registered voters. 11% of the district's 265,000 registered voters cast ballots in the primary, and only 8% cast ballots on August 21. [7]

Analysis

While race was a factor in the results of the election, some Blacks voters and leaders supported Orepeza and some Latino voters and leaders backed Richardson. Richardson's victory in the primary did depend on Black voters but final results showed that Richardson won over many Latino voters and leaders. [8]

Current population estimate in California project a large increase in the Latino population in California over the next 40 years while the population of Blacks, Asian Americans, and Whites as a percentage of total population is expected to decline [9] The dynamics of race relations in the special election could be foretelling of some political races in the future.

Interesting Election Information

See also

Candidate web sites

Democratic

Green

Libertarian

Republican

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References

  1. ↑ Prengaman, Peter (April 23, 2007). "Rep. Millender-McDonald Dies of Cancer". Associated Press via The Washington Post . Retrieved July 14, 2008.
  2. ↑ "Oropeza enters race for late rep.'s seat". The Hill . May 3, 2007. Retrieved May 3, 2007.
  3. ↑ Rojas, Aurelio. "Ethnic tensions underlie House race in south state; An African American and Latino vie in a 'black' district where the bulk of the residents are Latino." Sacramento Bee. May 13, 2007. Accessed July 16, 2007
  4. 1 2 Mitchell, John L. "Racial issues take a back seat in 37th'Multiracial support has Laura Richardson poised to represent a largely Latino district. Her take: `We are a new America, very diverse.'" Los Angeles Times . July 3, 2007. Accessed July 16, 2007.
  5. ↑ "Special Election Results" (PDF). Secretary of State of California. July 2, 2007. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 24, 2008. Retrieved April 24, 2008.
  6. ↑ "Special Election Results" (PDF). Secretary of State of California. August 30, 2007. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 24, 2008. Retrieved April 24, 2008.
  7. ↑ latimes.com
  8. ↑ Mitchell, John L. "Racial issues take a back seat in 37th;Multiracial support has Laura Richardson poised to represent a largely Latino district. Her take: `We are a new America, very diverse.'" Los Angeles Times . July 3, 2007. Accessed July 17, 2007
  9. ↑ Lin, Judy. "California boomin' Dramatic changes in demographics as seen coming by midcentury." Sacramento Bee. Tuesday, July 10, 2007. Page A1.
  10. ↑ "CA:37 Orepeza, Richardson Lead Ahead of Tuesday's Special Election." Bulletin New Network, Inc. The Frontrunner. June 25, 2007. Accessed July 16, 2007.
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