Demographics of Kazakhstan

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Demographics of Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan Population Pyramid.svg
Population pyramid of Kazakhstan in 2023
Population20,182,003 (1 August 2024) [1]
Density7.40651/km2
Growth rate8.6/1,000 population (2024 est.)
Birth rate17.2 births/1,000 population (2024 est.)
Death rate8.1 deaths/1,000 population (2024 est.)
Life expectancy73.3 years (2024 est.) [2]
 • male69 years
 • female77.9 years
Fertility rate3.32 children born/woman (2023 est.) [3]
Infant mortality rate8 deaths/1,000 live births (2024 est.)
Net migration rate-0.4 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2024 est.)
Age structure
0–14 years29.5% (male 3,001,983/female 2,833,471)
15–64 years62.0% (male 6,028,354/female 6,224,431)
65 and over8.5% (male 617,364/female 1,061,204) (2023 Est.) [4]
Sex ratio
Total0.95 male(s)/female
At birth1.06 male(s)/female
Under 151.05 male(s)/female
15–64 years0.95 male(s)/female
65 and over0.54 male(s)/female
Nationality
NationalityKazakh(s) or Kazakhstani(s)
Major ethnic Kazakh (71.0%) [5] [6]
Minor ethnic
Language
Official Kazakh
Spoken Languages of Kazakhstan

The demographics of Kazakhstan enumerate the demographic features of the population of Kazakhstan, including population growth, population density, ethnicity, education level, health, economic status, religious affiliations, and other aspects of the population. Some use the word Kazakh to refer to the Kazakh ethnic group and language (autochthonous to Kazakhstan as well as parts of China and Mongolia) and Kazakhstani to refer to Kazakhstan and its citizens regardless of ethnicity, [7] [8] but it is common to use Kazakh in both senses. [9] [10] [11] It is expected that by 2050, the population will range from 23.5 to 27.7 million people. [12]

Contents

Overview

Official estimates put the population of Kazakhstan at 20,182,003 as of August 2024, of which 62.7% is urban and 37.3% is rural population. [13] In a report released by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) in September 2021, the level of urbanization in Kazakhstan is estimated to reach 69.1% by 2050. [14]

The proportion of men makes up 48.85% and the proportion of women is 51.15%.

Ethnic Kazakhs make up 71%, Russians 14.9%, Uzbeks 3.3%, Ukrainians 1.9%, Uygur 1.5%, Germans 1.1%, Tatars 1.1%, and others 5.2%.

The first census in Kazakhstan was conducted under Russian Imperial rule in 1897, which estimated population at round 4 million people. Following censuses showed a growth until 1939, where numbers showed a decrease to 6,081 thousand relative to the previous census done 13 years earlier, due to famines of 1922 and 1933.

But since 1939 population has steadily increased to 16.5 million in 1989, according to corresponding year census. Official estimates indicate that the population continued to increase after 1989, peaking out at 17 million in 1993 and then declining to 15 million in the 1999 census. The downward trend continued through 2002, when the estimated population bottomed out at 14.9 million, and then resumed its growth. [15] Significant numbers of Russians returned to Russia. Kazakhstan underwent significant urbanization during the first 50 years of the Soviet era, as the share of the rural population declined from more than 90% in the 1920s to less than 50% since the 1970s. [16] The fertility rate declined to amongst the lower rates in the world in 1999 and increased to again amongst the higher rates in the world in 2021.


Population size and structure

Population of Kazakhstan 1897–2024

YearPopulation (thousands)Urban, %Rural, %Source
18974,000——census
19266,198——census
19396,081
28%
72%
census
19599,295
44%
56%
census
197013,001
50%
50%
census
197914,685
54%
46%
census
198916,537
57%
43%
census
199914,953
57%
43%
census
200915,982
54%
46%
census
202119,186
61%
39%
census
202420,182
63%
37%
estimate
Data sources: Population 1897 from Russian Empire Census. Population 1926 from First All-Union Census of the Soviet Union. Population 1939–1999 from demoscope.ru, [15] 2002–2008 from Kazakhstan Statistical Agency web site. [17] Rural/urban shares 1939–1993 from statistical yearbooks, print editions, [16] 2002–2008 from Kazakhstan Statistical Agency web site. [17] 2009–2014 from Kazakhstan Statistical Agency web site. [18]

As of 2003, there were discrepancies between Western sources regarding the population of Kazakhstan. United States government sources, including the CIA World Fact Book and the US Census Bureau International Data Base, listed the population as 15,340,533, [19] while the World Bank gave a 2002 estimate of 14,858,948. [20] This discrepancy was presumably due to difficulties in measurement caused by the large migratory population in Kazakhstan, emigration, and low population density – only about 5.5 persons per km2 in an area the size of Western Europe.

Structure of the population

Population Estimates by Sex and Age Group (01.VII.2021) (Data refer to resident population.): [21]

Age GroupMaleFemaleTotal%
Total9 223 5899 777 39919 000 988100
0223 552209 539433 0902.28
1–4818 257766 7881 585 0458.34
5–9982 270927 1081 909 37710.05
10–14857 617811 6961 669 3138.76
15–19643 879610 9431 254 8216.60
20–24568 174544 6341 112 8085.86
25–29699 428680 0331 379 4617.26
30–34793 785815 7811 609 5668.47
35–39690 052709 5801 399 6317.37
40–44586 612615 2371 201 8496.33
45–49525 164576 3471 101 5105.80
50–54475 079532 0771 007 1565.30
55–59449 996534 713984 7095.18
60–64375 734486 204861 9384.54
65–69241 436361 664603 0993.17
70–74149 026263 406412 4322.17
75–7960 581122 881183 4620.97
80–8457 026141 863198 8891.05
85–8917 02947 32064 3480.34
90–945 91515 74721 6620.11
95–991 9803 0134 9930.03
100+1 0028311 8320.01
Age groupMaleFemaleTotalPercent
0–142 881 6962 715 1295 596 82529.46
15–645 807 8986 105 54811 913 44662.70
65+533 995956 7221 490 7177.84

Structure of the population (01.01.2021) (Estimates): [22]

Age GroupMaleFemaleTotal%
Total9 160 3999 719 15318 879 552100
0–152 980 2972 809 2365 789 53330.7
16–62(59)5 524 1375 485 23511 009 37258.3
63(60)+655 9651 424 6822 080 64711.0

The age group under 15 is considered below the working age, while the age group over 63(60) is above the working age (63 years for men, 60 for women).

Vital statistics

Births and deaths

[23] [24] [25] [26]

Average populationLive births1Deaths1Natural change1Crude birth rate (per 1000)Crude death rate (per 1000)Natural change (per 1000)Crude migration change (per 1000)Fertility ratesLife expectancy
19506,703,000254,16979,005175,16437.911.826.1
19516,946,000272,35480,553191,80139.211.627.68.7
19527,133,000265,23585,241179,99437.212.025.21.7
19537,271,000262,75873,930188,82836.110.226.0-6.7
19547,528,000278,42076,092202,32837.010.126.98.4
19557,992,000299,85473,283226,57137.59.228.333.3
19568,426,000305,43064,807240,62336.37.728.625.7
19578,722,000326,76668,050258,71637.57.829.75.4
19589,077,000336,02062,680273,34037.06.930.110.6
19599,516,000349,79469,602280,19236.87.329.419.0
19609,996,000372,59565,667306,92837.26.630.719.7
196110,480,000377,78968,610309,17936.16.529.518.9
196210,958,000369,00270,952298,05033.76.527.218.4
196311,321,000346,08467,218278,86630.65.924.68.5
196411,610,000324,41266,197258,21527.95.722.23.3
196511,909,000314,53369,803244,73026.45.920.65.2
196612,185,000307,90569,402238,50325.35.719.63.6
196712,456,000301,71571,824229,89124.25.818.53.7
196812,694,000296,88273,496223,38623.45.817.61.5
196912,901,000297,12978,660218,46923.06.116.9-0.6
197013,106,000301,45177,619223,83223.05.917.1-1.2
197113,321,000317,42379,881237,54223.86.017.8-1.4
197213,534,000318,55185,122233,42923.56.317.2-1.2
197313,742,000321,07590,282230,79323.46.616.8-1.4
197413,955,000338,29193,582244,70924.26.717.5-2.0
197514,136,000343,668101,865241,80324.37.217.1-4.1
197614,279,000350,362103,892246,47024.57.317.3-7.2
197714,425,000349,379105,376244,00324.27.316.9-6.7
197814,589,000355,337107,293248,04424.47.417.0-5.6
197914,743,000354,320113,687240,63324.07.716.3-5.7
198014,884,000356,013119,078236,93523.98.015.9-6.3
198115,033,000367,950120,974246,97624.58.016.4-6.4
198215,185,000373,416120,165253,25124.67.916.7-6.6
198315,334,000378,577123,807254,77024.78.116.6-6.8
198415,481,000399,403129,796269,60725.88.417.4-7.83.04
198515,623,000396,929126,786270,14325.48.117.3-8.13.02
198615,776,000410,846119,149291,69726.07.618.5-8.73.13
198715,948,000417,139122,835294,30426.27.718.5-7.63.19
198816,188,000407,116126,898280,21825.37.917.4-2.43.13
198916,243,000382,269126,378255,89123.57.815.8-12.42.81
199016,328,000362,081128,576233,50522.27.914.3-9.12.72
199116,405,000353,174134,324218,85021.58.213.3-8.62.67
199216,439,000337,612137,518200,09420.58.412.2-10.12.62
199316,381,000315,482156,070159,41219.39.59.7-13.22.54
199416,146,000305,624160,339145,28518.99.99.0-23.32.43
199515,816,000276,125168,656107,46917.510.76.8-27.22.21
199615,578,000253,175166,02887,14716.310.75.6-20.62.02
199715,334,000232,356160,13872,21815.210.44.7-20.41.93
199815,072,000222,380154,31468,06614.810.24.5-21.61.81
199914,939,000217,578147,41670,16214.69.94.7-13.51.8065.6
200014,883,626222,054149,77872,27614.910.14.9-8.61.8865.5
200114,858,335221,487147,87673,61114.99.95.0-6.71.8465.8
200214,858,948227,171149,38177,79015.310.15.2-5.21.8866.0
200314,909,018247,946155,27792,66916.610.46.2-2.82.0365.8
200415,012,985273,028152,250120,77818.210.18.1-1.12.2166.2
200515,147,029278,977157,121121,85618.410.48.10.82.2265.9
200615,308,084301,756157,210144,54619.710.39.41.22.3666.2
200715,484,192321,963158,297163,66620.810.210.60.92.4766.3
200815,674,000357,555152,878204,67722.89.813.0-0.72.6867.1
200916,092,822356,261142,883213,37822.18.913.313.42.5568.4
201016,321,872367,707146,027221,68022.59.013.60.62.5968.5
201116,557,201372,690144,323228,36722.58.713.80.62.5968.7
201216,792,089381,153143,411237,74222.78.514.202.6269.5
201317,035,550387,256136,368250,88822.78.014.7-0.22.6470.6
201417,288,285399,309132,287267,02223.17.715.5-0.72.7371.4
201517,542,806398,458130,811267,64722.77.515.3-0.62.7472.0
201617,794,055400,694131,231269,46322.57.415.2-0.92.7772.4
201718,037,775390,262129,009261,25321.67.214.5-0.82.7573.0
201818,276,452397,799130,448267,35121.87.114.6-1.42.8473.2
201918,513,673402,310133,128269,18221.77.214.5-1.52.9073.2
202018,755,665426,824161,333265,49122.88.614.2-1.13.1371.4
202119,000,987446,491182,403264,08823.59.613.9-0.83.3270.2
202219,634,983403,893133,523270,37020.66.813.819.63.0574.4
202319,900,325388,428130,686257,74219.56.613.00.52.9675.1

1Births and deaths until 1979 are estimates.

Current vital statistics

[27] [28]

PeriodLive birthsDeathsNatural increase
January—November 2023357,427118,005+239,422
January—November 2024338,612121,479+217,133
DifferenceDecrease2.svg -18,815 (-5.26%)Increase Negative.svg +3,474 (+2.94%)Decrease2.svg -22,289

Total fertility rate

Total Fertility Rate of Kazakhstan by region (2021) Total Fertility Rate of Kazakhstan by region - 2021.svg
Total Fertility Rate of Kazakhstan by region (2021)

Total fertility rate by regions of Kazakhstan:

Mangystau – 3.80
South Kazakhstan – 3.71
Kyzylorda – 3.42
Atyrau – 3.29
Jambyl – 3.20
Aqtobe – 2.70
Almaty (province) – 2.65
Almaty (city) – 2.65
City of Astana – 2.44
West Kazakhstan – 2.29
Aqmola – 2.19
East Kazakhstan – 2.07
Qaragandy – 2.04
Pavlodar – 1.98
North Kazakhstan – 1.72
Qostanay – 1.70
Republic of Kazakhstan – 2.65

Thus it can be seen that fertility rate is higher in more traditionalist and religious south and west, and lower in the north and east, where the percentage of Slavic and German population is still relatively high. [29] [30] [31]

According to the Kazakhstan Demographic and Health Survey in 1999, the TFR for Kazakhs was 2.5 and that for Russians was 1.38. TFR in 1989 for Kazakhs & Russians were 3.58 and 2.24 respectively. [32]

Year Kazakh
women		 Russian
women		 Ukrainian
women		 Uzbek
women
19893.582.24——
19953.111.69——
19992.501.38——
20002.121.181.602.90
20012.111.171.592.92
20022.141.211.602.88
20032.301.301.713.10
20042.521.361.763.39
20052.541.351.733.32
20062.731.381.803.43

[33]

Life expectancy at birth

Life expectancy in Kazakhstan since 1868 Life expectancy in Kazakhstan.svg
Life expectancy in Kazakhstan since 1868
Life expectancy in Kazakhstan since 1960 by gender Life expectancy by WBG -Kazakhstan -diff.png
Life expectancy in Kazakhstan since 1960 by gender
PeriodLife expectancy in
Years		PeriodLife expectancy in
Years
1950–195555.11985–199067.5
1955–196057.31990–199565.5
1960–196559.51995–200063.0
1965–197061.72000–200564.6
1970–197563.32005–201066.0
1975–198064.32010–201569.1
1980–198565.9

Source: UN World Population Prospects [34]

Ethnic groups

Ethnic groups in Kazakhstan (2024) [35]
Ethnic groups
Kazakh
 
71.0%
Russian
 
 14.9%
Uzbek
 
3.3%
Ukrainian
 
1.9%
Uyghur
 
1.5%
German
 
1.1%
Tatar
 
1.1%
Other
 
5.2%
The share of Kazakhs in Kazakhstan by districts at the beginning of 2022 Kazakhi v Kazakhstane.png
The share of Kazakhs in Kazakhstan by districts at the beginning of 2022
The share Russians by districts and cities of regional and republican subordination Kazakhstan in 2021 Russians in Kazakhstan Rus.png
The share Russians by districts and cities of regional and republican subordination Kazakhstan in 2021
Kazakhstan demographics 1897-1970. Major ethnic groups. Famines marked in grey. Kazakhstan demographics 1897-1970 en.png
Kazakhstan demographics 1897–1970. Major ethnic groups. Famines marked in grey.

Kazakhstan's dominant ethnic group, the Kazakhs, traces its origins to the 15th century, when after the disintegration of Golden Horde, numbers of Turkic and Turco-Mongol tribes united to establish the Kazakh Khanate. With a cohesive culture and national identity, they constituted an absolute majority on the land until colonization by the Russian empire.

Russian advances into the territory of Kazakhstan began in the late 18th century, when the Kazakhs nominally accepted Russian rule in exchange for protection against repeated attacks by the western Mongolian Kalmyks. In the 1890s, Russian peasants began to settle on the fertile lands of northern Kazakhstan, causing many Kazakhs to move eastwards into Chinese territory in search of new grazing grounds. The 1906 completion of the Trans-Aral Railway between Orenburg and Tashkent further facilitated Russian colonization. [36] [37]

The first collective farms were formed in Kazakhstan in 1921, populated primarily by Russians and Soviet deportees. In 1930, as part of the first Five Year Plan, the Soviet Government decreed measures of force sedentarization of nomads and their incorporation into collectivized farms. This movement resulted in devastating famines of the 1920s and of the 1930s, claiming the lives of an estimated 40% of ethnic Kazakhs (1.5 million), between 1930 and 1933. [38] Hundreds of thousands also fled to China, Iran and Afghanistan. The famine made Kazakhs a minority of the population of Kazakhstan, and only after the republic gained independence in 1991 did Kazakhs have a slim demographic majority within Kazakhstan. [36]

Demographics did shift in the 1950s and 1960s, when, as part of Nikita Khrushchev's Virgin Lands Campaign, hundreds of thousands of Soviet citizens relocated to the Kazakh steppes in order to farm. As recognized in the 1959 census, the Kazaks became the second-largest ethnic group in Kazakhstan for the first time in recorded history, comprising just 30% of the total population of Kazakhstan. Russians numbered 42.7%. [39]

Since the Soviet Union's collapse, the numbers of members of European ethnic groups has been falling and Asian groups have been continuously rising. According to 2024 estimates, the ethnic composition of Kazakhstan was approximately: 71% Kazakh, 14.9% Russian, 3.3% Uzbek, 1.9% Ukrainian, 1.5% Uyghur, 1.1% Tatar, 1.1% German, and <1% Korean, Turkish, Azerbaijani, Belarusian, Dungan, Kurdish, Tajik, Polish, Kyrgyz, Chechen. [40] According to 2021 Census, composition of child population was 79% Kazakh and 9.1% Russian. [41]

    Religion

    Religion in Kazakhstan, 2021 [42] [43]
    Islam
     
    		69.3%
    Christianity
     
    		17.2%
    No Response
     
    		11.01%
    Atheism
     
    		2.25%
    Other religions
     
    		0.2%

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    <span class="mw-page-title-main">Kazakhstan–Russia border</span> International border

    The Kazakhstan–Russia border is the 7,644-kilometre (4,750 mi) international border between the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation. It is the longest continuous international border in the world and the second longest by total length, after the Canada–United States border. It is in the same location as the former administrative-territorial border between the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic and the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">Georgian diaspora</span>

    The Georgian diaspora refers to both historical and present emigration from Georgia. The countries with the largest Georgian communities outside Georgia are Turkey and Russia. The Georgian diaspora, or the dispersion of Georgian people outside of Georgia, began to take shape during various historical periods. However, a significant wave of emigration occurred during the 19th and 20th centuries, particularly during times of political upheaval, such as the Russian Empire's expansion into the Caucasus region and the Soviet era.

    References

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    3. ↑ "World Bank Open Data". World Bank Open Data. Archived from the original on 2023-05-26. Retrieved 2023-07-13.
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    6. ↑ Kazakhstan population by ethnic groups
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    9. ↑ UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office, Kazakhstan, 2 Feb 2011 Archived 6 October 2011 at the Wayback Machine .
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    14. ↑ September 2021, Saniya Bulatkulova in Nation on 8 (2021-09-08). "7 out of 10 People in Kazakhstan Are Expected to Live in Cities By 2050, According to UN". The Astana Times. Archived from the original on 2023-05-29. Retrieved 2021-12-10.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
    15. 1 2 Population dynamics and ethnic composition of Kazakhstan in the second half of the 20th century Archived 2020-11-28 at the Wayback Machine , Demoscope Weekly, No. 103-104, 3–16 March 2003 (in Russian)
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    27. ↑ "Bureau of National Statistics". Archived from the original on 2023-05-12. Retrieved 2023-05-12.
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    30. ↑ Spoorenberg, Thomas (2013). "Fertility changes in Central Asia since 1980". Asian Population Studies. 9 (1): 50–77. doi:10.1080/17441730.2012.752238. S2CID   154532617.
    31. ↑ Spoorenberg, Thomas (2015). "Explaining recent fertility increase in Central Asia". Asian Population Studies. 11 (2): 115–133. doi:10.1080/17441730.2015.1027275. S2CID   153924060.
    32. ↑ "Kazakhstan: Demographic and Health Survey, 1999 – Final Report, Chapter 4: Fertility" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on 2003-09-28. Retrieved 2007-02-07.
    33. ↑ "ETHNIC DIFFERENTIATION OF FERTILITY IN KAZAKHSTAN" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on 2021-07-16. Retrieved 2019-10-10.
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    37. ↑ Pierce, A. R. (1960) Russian Central Asia, 1867–1917: A study in colonial rule. Berkeley: University of California Press.
    38. ↑ Pianciola, Niccolò (2001). "The Collectivization Famine in Kazakhstan, 1931–1933". Harvard Ukrainian Studies. 25 (3/4): 237–251. ISSN   0363-5570. JSTOR   41036834.
    39. ↑ Zardykhan, Z. (2004). Russians in Kazakhstan and demographic change: Imperial legacy and the Kazakh way of nation building. Asian Ethnicity, 5(1), 61–79.
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    41. ↑ https://stat.gov.kz/upload/iblock/004/3kx97rnvyipmtdmbhj9cydnnl5do232t/%D0%A1-18-%D0%93-2018-2022%20(%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B3%D0%BB).pdf [ bare URL PDF ]
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    43. ↑ "How the Number of Believers Changed in Kazakhstan". 30 November 2022. Archived from the original on 3 October 2023. Retrieved 11 March 2023.

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