The demography of Scotland includes all aspects of population, past and present, in the area that is now Scotland. Scotland had a population of 5,463,300 in 2019. The population growth rate in 2011 was estimated as 0.6% per annum according to the 2011 GROS Annual Review.[3]
Covering an area of 78,782 square kilometres (30,418sqmi), Scotland has a population density of 67.2/km2 (174/sqmi). Around 70% of the country's population (3.5 million) live in the Central Belt —a region stretching in a northeast–southwest orientation between the major Scottish cities of Edinburgh and Glasgow, and including the major settlements of Paisley, Stirling, Falkirk, Perth and Dundee, in the Central Lowlands (80%). Other concentrations of population include the northeast coast of Scotland, principally the regions around the cities of Aberdeen and Inverness, and the west coast around the town of Ayr. The Scottish Highlands and the island group of Eilean Siar have the lowest population densities at 9/km2 (23/sqmi). Glasgow has the highest population density at 3,289/km2 (8,520/sqmi).[4]
In the United Kingdom, a census was taken every ten years from 1801 onwards; with the exception of 1941 due to the Second World War. Population data for years prior to that is provided from directories and gazetteers[6][7][1]
Year
Population
1500
500,000
1600
800,000
1707
1,000,000
1755
1,265,380
1801
1,608,420
1811
1,805,864
1821
2,091,521
1831
2,364,386
1841
2,620,184
1851
2,888,742
1861
3,062,294
1871
3,360,018
1881
3,735,578
1891
4,025,647
1901
4,472,103
1911
4,760,904
1921
4,882,407
1931
4,842,989
1939a
5,006,700
1951
5,095,969
1961b
5,179,000
1971
5,229,000
1981
5,035,000
1991c
5,083,000
2001
5,062,000
2011
5,295,000
2022
5,436,000
Notes
a. There was no census in 1941 however there was a National Register of the Civilian Population in 1939
b. Data for 1961 onwards rounded to nearest thousand
Map showing the percentage of the population that identifies itself as "Scottish only" according to the 2011 census.Map showing the percentage of the population that identifies itself as "Scottish and British" and "British only" according to the 2011 census.
A question on national identity was asked in the 2011 census: "what do you feel is your national identity?".[22] Respondents could identify themselves as having more than one national identity.
18% identified themselves as 'Scottish' and 'British'
8% identified themselves as 'British only'
2% identified themselves as 'Scottish' together with other non-British identity
10% identified themselves with other national/ethnic identities only (neither Scottish nor British)
The council areas with at least 90% of the population stating some 'Scottish' national identity were North Lanarkshire, Inverclyde, East Ayrshire and West Dunbartonshire. The lowest proportions of people stating some 'Scottish' national identity were in Edinburgh (70%) and Aberdeen (75%).[24]
The council areas with the highest proportions of people stating 'British' as their only national identity were Argyll and Bute and Shetland, each with 12%.[24]
Below is a table of national identity sorted by council area based on the results of the 2011 census:
Distribution of those who stated they could speak a regional language in the 2011 census
Scottish Gaelic
Scots
Over 170 languages are spoken in Scotland. The 4 most commonly spoken non-English languages at home (by people aged 3 and over) are: Scots (55,817), Polish (54,186), Chinese (27,381), and Urdu (23,394).[28]
Stone houses at Knap of Howar, evidence of a settled agricultural population and the beginnings of demographic growth, c. 3500 BC
At times during the last interglacial period (130,000–70,000 BC) Europe had a climate warmer than today's, and early humans may have made their way to what is now Scotland, though archaeologists have found no traces of this. Glaciers then scoured their way across most of Britain, and only after the ice retreated did Scotland again become habitable, around 9600 BC.[29]Mesolithic hunter-gatherer encampments formed the first known settlements, and archaeologists have dated a site near Biggar to around 8500 BC.[30] Numerous other sites found around Scotland build up a picture of highly mobile boat-using people making tools from bone, stone and antlers, probably with a very low density of population.[31]Neolithic farming brought permanent settlements, such as the stone house at Knap of Howar on Papa Westray dating from 3500 BC, and greater concentrations of population. Extensive analyses of Black Loch in Fife indicate that arable land spread at the expense of forest from about 2000 BC until the period of the first century AD Roman advance into lowland Scotland, suggesting an expanding settled population. Thereafter, there was re-growth of birch, oak and hazel for a period of five centuries, suggesting that the Roman invasions had a negative impact on the native population.[32]
There are almost no written sources from which to re-construct the demography of early medieval Scotland. Estimates have been made of a population of 10,000 inhabitants in Dál Riata and 80–100,000 for Pictland, which was probably the largest region.[33] This does not include figures for parts of Northumbria now in Scotland. It is likely that the 5th and 6th centuries saw higher mortality rates due to the appearance of bubonic plague, which may have reduced net population.[34] The examination of burial sites for this period like that at Hallowhill, St Andrews indicate a life expectancy of only 26–29.[33] The known conditions have been taken to suggest it was a high fertility, high mortality society, similar to many developing countries in the modern world, with a relatively young demographic profile, and perhaps early childbearing, and large numbers of children for women. This would have meant that there were a relatively small proportion of available workers to the number of mouths to feed. This would have made it difficult to produce a surplus that would allow demographic growth and more complex societies to develop.[35] From the formation of the kingdom of Alba in the tenth century, to before the Black Death reached the country in 1349, estimates based on the amount of farmable land, suggest that population may have grown from half a million to a million.[36] Although there is no reliable documentation on the impact of the plague, there are many anecdotal references to abandoned land in the following decades. If the pattern followed that in England, then the population may have fallen to as low as half a million by the end of the 15th century.[37] Compared with the situation after the redistribution of population in the later clearances and the industrial revolution, these numbers would have been relatively evenly spread over the kingdom, with roughly half living north of the Tay.[38] Perhaps ten per cent of the population lived in one of many burghs that grew up in the later medieval period, mainly in the east and south. It has been suggested that they would have had a mean population of about 2,000, but many would be much smaller than 1,000 and the largest, Edinburgh, probably had a population of over 10,000 by the end of the era.[39]
Calculations based on Hearth Tax returns for 1691 indicate a population of 1,234,575, but this figure may have been seriously affected by the famines of the 1690s. The first reliable information is a census conducted by the Reverend Alexander Webster in 1755, which shows the inhabitants of Scotland as 1,265,380.[40] By the time of the first decadal census in 1801, the population was 1,608,420. Scotland grew steadily in the 19th century, to 2,889,000 in 1851 and 4,472,000 in 1901.[41] Even with the growth of industry there were insufficient good jobs, as a result, during the period 1841–1931, about 2 million Scots emigrated to North America and Australia, and another 750,000 Scots relocated to England.[42]
With a population of 4.8 million in 1911, Scotland sent 690,000 men to First World War, of whom 74,000 died in combat or from disease, and 150,000 were seriously wounded.[43][44] Thus, although Scots were only 10 percent of the British population, they made up 15 per cent of the national armed forces and eventually accounted for 20 per cent of the dead.[45] While emigration began to tail off in England and Wales after the First World War,[46] it continued apace in Scotland, with 400,000 Scots, ten per cent of the population, estimated to have left the country between 1921 and 1931.[47] When the Great Depression hit in the 1930s there were no easily available jobs in the US and Canada and emigration fell to less than 50,000 a year, bringing to an end the period of mass migrations that had opened in the mid-18th century.[48] This contributed to the growth of the population, which reached a peak of 5,240,800 in 1974. Thereafter it began to fall slowly, moving down to 5,062,940 in 2000. There was also a decrease in some urban populations as a result of policies of slum clearance, overspill and relocation to new towns, with the population of Glasgow falling from over a million in 1951 to 629,000 in 2001. Rural areas also saw a loss of population, particularly the Highlands and Hebrides.[49]
Scotland's population grew most years between the first census in 1855 up to around 5.2 million in 1974.[50] However, from 1974 to 2000 there was a natural decrease in population, with both an excess of deaths over births and of emigration over immigration - particularly to the rest of the United Kingdom. Since 2000 the population has increased most years and is projected to peak in 2028 at 5.48 million and thereafter decline to 5.39 million in 2045.[51][52]
Fertility and morbidity rates
Both the Scottish Government and leading academics in Scotland had expressed some concern over the historic falling annual number of births in Scotland.[53] There were 49,863 live births registered in 2019, the lowest count since records began in 1855.[54] In 2004, for example, there were 4,012 more deaths than births, although for the subsequent five years this process had been reversed with 4,342 more births than deaths in 2008. The long-term reversal in the declining birth rate of the 1990s was confirmed in 2009 when the Registrar General for Scotland reported that with 60,000 births recorded in 2008, this was the highest recorded fertility rate since 1995.[55]
The population of children under age 5 grew by 6% (293,000) over the ten-year period between 2001 and 2011. However, the number of children aged 5–14 fell by 11% (69,000). The population of people over 65 also grew by 11% (85,000) and they now represent 17% of the total population and for the first time there are more people over 65 than under 15 years of age. Significantly, in 2011 there were 230,000 people over 80 years of age.[56]
Fertility statistics
Live births per 1,000 women by age grouping in Scotland
Live births per 1,000 women in single year ages in Scotland
Stillbirth rate in Scotland over time
Migration
Politicians and academics also noted that in the first years of the 21st century the previous trend of a net migration away from Scotland had reversed with significant immigration to Scotland from the rest of the United Kingdom. Between 2001 and 2011 Scotland's population grew by 5% (233,000), the fastest rate of growth for at least 100 years.[56] Similarly, since 2004 there had also been a growing influx of arrivals from the new EUaccession states such as Poland, Czech Republic, Lithuania and Latvia, contributing to the recent growth of the population. Consequently, since 2002 the birth rate gradually increased with 53,957 births recorded in 2004, and in 2008 the number of live births was 60,041.[57]
In its 2011 review the GROS predicted that Scotland's population would rise by 10% to 5.76 million by 2035 and to 6.2m by 2085. Until 2028 both net inward migration and the birth rate exceeding the death rate would contribute to this growth, however beyond this date population increase would be due only to a positive net migration as the aging population would result in more deaths than births. This later trend would be dramatic with the number of children under 16 projected to rise by only 3% while the number of people over 65 is projected to increase by 63% (from 0.88m to 1.43m).[3]
In its 2022 annual population review the National Records of Scotland projected that the Scottish population would continue to rise until 2028 - peaking at 5.48 million - and would then fall by 1.8% by 2045 to 5.39 million.[59]
Sex ratio: at birth: 1.04 male(s)/female under 15 years: 1.04 male(s)/female 15-64 years: 0.94 male(s)/female 65 years and over: 0.88 male(s)/female total population: 0.94 male(s)/female (Mid-2011 est.)
Infant mortality rate: 4.1 deaths/1,000 live births (2011 est.)[62]
Life expectancy at birth (2011):[3] total population: 78.4 years for those born in 2010 (cf. 72.2 in 1981) male: 76.1 years for those born in 2010 (cf. 69.1 in 1981) female: 80.6 years for those born in 2010 (cf. 75.3 in 1981)
General fertility rate:[3] The general Fertility Rate (GFR) is based on the rate of births per 1000 females of child-bearing age (i.e. 15–44 years of age).
In 2011 it was 56.4 births per 1000 women. For comparison, during the latter part of the 20th century it was at its highest during the 'baby boom' of the 1960s. The GFR reached a peak of 99.5 births per 1000 women in 1962. In 2001 the GFR had fallen to its lowest post World War II level of 50 births per 1000 women.
Marriages:[3] In 2011 there were 29,135 marriages in Scotland. This is a 2.3% increase on 2010.
By way of historical comparison, the highest ever recorded was 53,522 in 1940. In the 1970s there were on average between 40 and 45,000 marriages per annum. The lowest annual figure in recent years was 27,524 in 2009 and lowest on record was 19,655 in 1858.
Of specific interest were the number of so-called 'tourist marriages', where neither partner was resident in Scotland. In 2011 there were 6,829 such marriages, of which 48% took place at Gretna, the most popular of all wedding venues.
Civil partnerships:[3] The Civil Partnership Act 2004 came into force in December 2005. In 2006 the number of civil partnership registrations was 1,047. A one-off figure given the number of long-standing relationships which already existed which could be registered. Since then the number of ceremonies each year fell from 688 in 2007 to 465 registrations in 2010. 2011 saw the first increase since 2006 with 554 registrations.
Literacy: definition: age 15 and over can read and write total population: 99% male: 99% female: 99% (2005 est)
Statistics Canada conducts a country-wide census that collects demographic data every five years on the first and sixth year of each decade. The 2021 Canadian census enumerated a total population of 36,991,981, an increase of around 5.2 percent over the 2016 figure. It is estimated that Canada's population surpassed 40 million in 2023 and 41 million in 2024. Between 1990 and 2008, the population increased by 5.6 million, equivalent to 20.4 percent overall growth. The main driver of population growth is immigration. Between 2011 and May 2016, Canada's population grew by 1.7 million people, with immigrants accounting for two-thirds of the increase.
India is the most populous country in the world with one-sixth of the world's population. According to estimates from the United Nations (UN), India has overtaken China as the country with the largest population in the world, with a population of 1,425,775,850 at the end of April 2023.
The current population of Nepal is 29,164,578 as per the 2021 census. The population growth rate is 0.92% per year.
The population of the United Kingdom was estimated at almost 67.6 million people in 2022. It is the 21st most populated country in the world and has a population density of 279 people per square kilometre, with England having significantly greater density than Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Almost a third of the population lives in south east England, which is predominantly urban and suburban, with about 9 million in the capital city, London, whose population density is just over 5,200 per square kilometre.
According to the United Nations, Ukraine has a population of 36,744,636 as of 2023. In July 2023, Reuters reported that due to the refugee outpouring into Western Europe, the population of Kyiv-controlled areas may have decreased to as low as 28 million. This is a steep decline from 2020, when it had a population of almost 42 million people. This is in large part due to the ongoing Ukrainian refugee crisis and loss of territory caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The most recent census of a post-Soviet Ukraine occurred over 20 years ago, in 2001. Thus, much of the information presented here could be inaccurate and/or outdated.
Demography is the statistical study of human populations: their size, composition, and how they change through the interplay of fertility (births), mortality (deaths), and migration.
The population of Australia is estimated to be 27,162,800 as of 27 April 2024. Australia is the 56th most populous country in the world and the most populous Oceanian country. Its population is concentrated mainly in urban areas, particularly on the Eastern, South Eastern and Southern seaboards, and is expected to exceed 30 million by 2029.
The United States had an official estimated resident population of 334,914,895 on July 1, 2023, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This figure includes the 50 states and the District of Columbia but excludes the population of five unincorporated U.S. territories as well as several minor island possessions. The United States is the third most populous country in the world, and the most populous in the Americas and the Western Hemisphere. The Census Bureau showed a population increase of 0.4% for the twelve-month period ending in July 2022, below the world average annual rate of 0.9%. The total fertility rate in the United States estimated for 2022 is 1.665 children per woman, which is below the replacement fertility rate of approximately 2.1.
The United States is a country primarily located in North America. Demographics of the United States concern matters of population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations, and other aspects regarding the population.
Demographics of Wales include the numbers in population, place of birth, age, ethnicity, religion, and number of marriages in Wales.
The demography of England has since 1801 been measured by the decennial national census, and is marked by centuries of population growth and urbanization. Due to the lack of authoritative contemporary sources, estimates of the population of England for dates prior to the first census in 1801 vary considerably. The population of England at the 2021 census was about 56,489,800.
Population decline, also known as depopulation, is a reduction in a human population size. Throughout history, Earth's total human population has continued to grow; however, current projections suggest that this long-term trend of steady population growth may be coming to an end.
The foreign-born population of the United Kingdom includes immigrants from a wide range of countries who are resident in the United Kingdom. In the period January to December 2016, there were groups from 22 foreign countries that were estimated to consist of at least 100,000 individuals residing in the UK.
White British is an ethnicity classification used for the white population identifying as English, Scottish, Welsh, Cornish, Northern Irish, or British in the United Kingdom Census. In the 2011 census, the White British population was 49,997,686, 81.5% of Great Britain's total population. For the United Kingdom entirely, due to different reporting measures within Northern Ireland which includes all those who identified as British with those who identified as Irish, an amalgamated total of 52,320,080 including those who identified as White Irish in Great Britain is given making up 82.8% of the population.
Northern Ireland is the smallest of the four components of the United Kingdom in terms of both area and population, containing 2.9% of the total population and 5.7% of the total area of the United Kingdom. It is the smaller of the two political entities on the island of Ireland by area and population, the other being the Republic of Ireland. Northern Ireland contains 27.1% of the total population and 16.75% of the total area of the island of Ireland.
A census of the population of the United Kingdom is taken every ten years. The 2011 census was held in all counties of the UK on 27 March 2011. It was the first UK census which could be completed online via the Internet. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is responsible for the census in England and Wales, the General Register Office for Scotland (GROS) is responsible for the census in Scotland, and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) is responsible for the census in Northern Ireland.
Earth has a human population of over 8 billion as of 2024, with an overall population density of 50 people per km2. Nearly 60% of the world's population lives in Asia, with almost 2.8 billion in the countries of China and India combined. The percentage shares of China, India and rest of South Asia of the world population have remained at similar levels for the last few thousand years of recorded history. The world's literacy rate has increased dramatically in the last 40 years, from 66.7% in 1979 to 86.3% today. Lower literacy levels are mostly attributable to poverty. Lower literacy rates are found mostly in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.
The demographic history of Scotland includes all aspects of population history in what is now Scotland. The earliest surviving archaeological evidence of human settlement is of Mesolithic hunter-gatherer encampments. These suggest a highly mobile boat-using people, probably with a very low density of population. Neolithic farming brought permanent settlements dating from 3500 BC, and greater concentrations of population. Evidence of hillforts and other buildings suggest a growing settled population. Changes in the scale of woodland indicates that the Roman invasions from the first century AD had a negative impact on the native population.
White Polish is an ethnicity classification used in Scotland at the 2011 United Kingdom Census. In the census, the White Polish population stood 571,762 in the whole United Kingdom, 61,201 of which were in Scotland which was 1.16% of the total population of Scotland at the time.
White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller is an ethnicity classification used in the 2011 United Kingdom Census. In the 2011 census, the White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller population was 63,193 or about 0.1 per cent of the total population of the country. The ethnicity category may encompass populace from the distinct ethnic groups of Romanichal Travellers or Irish Travellers, and their respective related subgroupings, who identify as, or are perceived to be, white people in the United Kingdom.
↑ Office of Population Censuses and Surveys; General Register Office for Scotland; Registrar General for Northern Ireland (1997): 1991 Census aggregate data. UK Data Service (Edition: 1997). DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5257/census/aggregate-1991-1 This information is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence
↑ P. J. Ashmore, Neolithic and Bronze Age Scotland: An authoritative and Lively Account of an Enigmatic Period of Scottish Prehistory (2003).
↑ T. C. Smout, R. MacDonald and F. Watson, A History of the Native Woodlands of Scotland 1500–1920. Edinburgh University PressISBN9780748632947, p. 34.
1 2 L. R. Laing, The Archaeology of Celtic Britain and Ireland, c. AD 400-1200 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006), ISBN0521547407, pp. 21–22.
↑ P. Fouracre and R. McKitterick, eds, The New Cambridge Medieval History: c. 500-c. 700 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005), ISBN0521362911, p. 234.
↑ A. Woolf, From Pictland to Alba: 789–1070 (Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 2007), ISBN0748612343, pp. 17–20.
↑ R. E. Tyson, "Population Patterns", in M. Lynch, ed., The Oxford Companion to Scottish History (New York, 2001), pp. 487–88.
↑ S. H. Rigby, ed., A Companion to Britain in the Later Middle Ages (Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell, 2003), ISBN0631217851, pp. 109–11.
↑ J. Wormald, Court, Kirk, and Community: Scotland, 1470-1625 (Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 1991), ISBN0748602763, p. 61.
↑ E. Gemmill and N. J. Mayhew, Changing Values in Medieval Scotland: a Study of Prices, Money, and Weights and Measures (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995), ISBN0521473853, pp. 8-10.
↑ K. J. Cullen, Famine in Scotland: The 'Ill Years' of The 1690s (Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 2010), ISBN0748638873, pp. 123-24.
↑ A. K. Cairncross, The Scottish Economy: A Statistical Account of Scottish Life by Members of the Staff of Glasgow University (Glasgow: Glasgow University Press, 1953), p. 10.
↑ R. A. Houston and W. W. Knox, eds, The New Penguin History of Scotland (London: Penguin, 2001), ISBN0140263675, p. xxxii.
↑ I. F. W. Beckett and K. R. Simpson, eds. A Nation in Arms: a Social Study of the British Army in the First World War (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1985), ISBN0719017378, p. 11.
↑ R. A. Houston and W. W. Knox, eds, The New Penguin History of Scotland (London: Penguin, 2001), ISBN0140263675, p. 426.
↑ J. Buchanan, Scotland (Langenscheidt, 3rd edn., 2003), p. 49.
↑ F. M. L. Thompson, The Cambridge Social History of Britain, 1750-1950: People and Their Environment (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990), ISBN0521438136, pp. 9-10.
↑ J. Buchanan, Scotland (Langenscheidt, 3rd edn., 2003), p. 51.
↑ S. M. Millett, The Scottish Settlers of America: the 17th and 18th Centuries (Genealogical Publishing Com, 2009), p. 64.
↑ C. G. Brown, "Charting everyday experience", in L. Abrams and C. G. Brown, A History of Everyday Life in Twentieth-Century Scotland (Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 2010), ISBN0748624317, p. 20.
↑ "Migration: helping Scotland prosper". Scottish Government. p.4. Retrieved 1 September 2020. Migration to Scotland supports economic growth and the delivery of public services. It helps to address the serious issue of long term demographic change and enhances and sustains our communities. All of our future population growth is projected to come from migration and any reduction in migration – whether that's from the rest of the UK, the EU or internationally – will impact on the size of our working age population.
↑ "Vital Events Reference Tables 2019". National Records of Scotland. 23 June 2020. p.7. Retrieved 1 September 2020. Births have been falling over the long term and fell to their lowest point in 2002 before increasing to reach a recent high point of 60,041 in 2008 and have decreased steadily since then.
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Scottish Gaelic
Scots
