Permutation tests rely on resampling the original data assuming the null hypothesis. Based on the resampled data it can be concluded how likely the original data is to occur under the null hypothesis.
For example,[1] when estimating the populationmean, this method uses the sample mean; to estimate the population median, it uses the sample median; to estimate the population regression line, it uses the sample regression line.
It may also be used for constructing hypothesis tests. It is often used as a robust alternative to inference based on parametric assumptions when those assumptions are in doubt, or where parametric inference is impossible or requires very complicated formulas for the calculation of standard errors. Bootstrapping techniques are also used in the updating-selection transitions of particle filters, genetic type algorithms and related resample/reconfiguration Monte Carlo methods used in computational physics.[2][3] In this context, the bootstrap is used to replace sequentially empirical weighted probability measures by empirical measures. The bootstrap allows to replace the samples with low weights by copies of the samples with high weights.
Cross-validation is a statistical method for validating a predictive model. Subsets of the data are held out for use as validating sets; a model is fit to the remaining data (a training set) and used to predict for the validation set. Averaging the quality of the predictions across the validation sets yields an overall measure of prediction accuracy. Cross-validation is employed repeatedly in building decision trees.
One form of cross-validation leaves out a single observation at a time; this is similar to the jackknife. Another, K-fold cross-validation, splits the data into K subsets; each is held out in turn as the validation set.
This avoids "self-influence". For comparison, in regression analysis methods such as linear regression, each y value draws the regression line toward itself, making the prediction of that value appear more accurate than it really is. Cross-validation applied to linear regression predicts the y value for each observation without using that observation.
This is often used for deciding how many predictor variables to use in regression. Without cross-validation, adding predictors always reduces the residual sum of squares (or possibly leaves it unchanged). In contrast, the cross-validated mean-square error will tend to decrease if valuable predictors are added, but increase if worthless predictors are added.[4]
Subsampling is an alternative method for approximating the sampling distribution of an estimator. The two key differences to the bootstrap are:
the resample size is smaller than the sample size and
resampling is done without replacement.
The advantage of subsampling is that it is valid under much weaker conditions compared to the bootstrap. In particular, a set of sufficient conditions is that the rate of convergence of the estimator is known and that the limiting distribution is continuous. In addition, the resample (or subsample) size must tend to infinity together with the sample size but at a smaller rate, so that their ratio converges to zero. While subsampling was originally proposed for the case of independent and identically distributed (iid) data only, the methodology has been extended to cover time series data as well; in this case, one resamples blocks of subsequent data rather than individual data points. There are many cases of applied interest where subsampling leads to valid inference whereas bootstrapping does not; for example, such cases include examples where the rate of convergence of the estimator is not the square root of the sample size or when the limiting distribution is non-normal. When both subsampling and the bootstrap are consistent, the bootstrap is typically more accurate. RANSAC is a popular algorithm using subsampling.
Jackknifing (jackknife cross-validation), is used in statistical inference to estimate the bias and standard error (variance) of a statistic, when a random sample of observations is used to calculate it. Historically, this method preceded the invention of the bootstrap with Quenouille inventing this method in 1949 and Tukey extending it in 1958.[5][6] This method was foreshadowed by Mahalanobis who in 1946 suggested repeated estimates of the statistic of interest with half the sample chosen at random.[7] He coined the name 'interpenetrating samples' for this method.
Quenouille invented this method with the intention of reducing the bias of the sample estimate. Tukey extended this method by assuming that if the replicates could be considered identically and independently distributed, then an estimate of the variance of the sample parameter could be made and that it would be approximately distributed as a t variate with n−1 degrees of freedom (n being the sample size).
The basic idea behind the jackknife variance estimator lies in systematically recomputing the statistic estimate, leaving out one or more observations at a time from the sample set. From this new set of replicates of the statistic, an estimate for the bias and an estimate for the variance of the statistic can be calculated.
Instead of using the jackknife to estimate the variance, it may instead be applied to the log of the variance. This transformation may result in better estimates particularly when the distribution of the variance itself may be non normal.
It is not consistent for the sample median. In the case of a unimodal variate the ratio of the jackknife variance to the sample variance tends to be distributed as one half the square of a chi square distribution with two degrees of freedom.
The jackknife, like the original bootstrap, is dependent on the independence of the data. Extensions of the jackknife to allow for dependence in the data have been proposed.
Another extension is the delete-a-group method used in association with Poisson sampling.
Jackknife is equivalent to the random (subsampling) leave-one-out cross-validation, it only differs in the goal.[8]
Comparison of bootstrap and jackknife
Both methods, the bootstrap and the jackknife, estimate the variability of a statistic from the variability of that statistic between subsamples, rather than from parametric assumptions. For the more general jackknife, the delete-m observations jackknife, the bootstrap can be seen as a random approximation of it. Both yield similar numerical results, which is why each can be seen as approximation to the other. Although there are huge theoretical differences in their mathematical insights, the main practical difference for statistics users is that the bootstrap gives different results when repeated on the same data, whereas the jackknife gives exactly the same result each time. Because of this, the jackknife is popular when the estimates need to be verified several times before publishing (e.g., official statistics agencies). On the other hand, when this verification feature is not crucial and it is of interest not to have a number but just an idea of its distribution, the bootstrap is preferred (e.g., studies in physics, economics, biological sciences).
Whether to use the bootstrap or the jackknife may depend more on operational aspects than on statistical concerns of a survey. The jackknife, originally used for bias reduction, is more of a specialized method and only estimates the variance of the point estimator. This can be enough for basic statistical inference (e.g., hypothesis testing, confidence intervals). The bootstrap, on the other hand, first estimates the whole distribution (of the point estimator) and then computes the variance from that. While powerful and easy, this can become highly computationally intensive.
"The bootstrap can be applied to both variance and distribution estimation problems. However, the bootstrap variance estimator is not as good as the jackknife or the balanced repeated replication (BRR) variance estimator in terms of the empirical results. Furthermore, the bootstrap variance estimator usually requires more computations than the jackknife or the BRR. Thus, the bootstrap is mainly recommended for distribution estimation."[attribution needed][9]
There is a special consideration with the jackknife, particularly with the delete-1 observation jackknife. It should only be used with smooth, differentiable statistics (e.g., totals, means, proportions, ratios, odd ratios, regression coefficients, etc.; not with medians or quantiles). This could become a practical disadvantage. This disadvantage is usually the argument favoring bootstrapping over jackknifing. More general jackknifes than the delete-1, such as the delete-m jackknife or the delete-all-but-2 Hodges–Lehmann estimator, overcome this problem for the medians and quantiles by relaxing the smoothness requirements for consistent variance estimation.
Usually the jackknife is easier to apply to complex sampling schemes than the bootstrap. Complex sampling schemes may involve stratification, multiple stages (clustering), varying sampling weights (non-response adjustments, calibration, post-stratification) and under unequal-probability sampling designs. Theoretical aspects of both the bootstrap and the jackknife can be found in Shao and Tu (1995),[10] whereas a basic introduction is accounted in Wolter (2007).[11] The bootstrap estimate of model prediction bias is more precise than jackknife estimates with linear models such as linear discriminant function or multiple regression.[12]
Statistics is the discipline that concerns the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. In applying statistics to a scientific, industrial, or social problem, it is conventional to begin with a statistical population or a statistical model to be studied. Populations can be diverse groups of people or objects such as "all people living in a country" or "every atom composing a crystal". Statistics deals with every aspect of data, including the planning of data collection in terms of the design of surveys and experiments.
Statistical inference is the process of using data analysis to infer properties of an underlying distribution of probability. Inferential statistical analysis infers properties of a population, for example by testing hypotheses and deriving estimates. It is assumed that the observed data set is sampled from a larger population.
The following outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to statistics:
In statistics, point estimation involves the use of sample data to calculate a single value which is to serve as a "best guess" or "best estimate" of an unknown population parameter. More formally, it is the application of a point estimator to the data to obtain a point estimate.
Nonparametric statistics is a type of statistical analysis that makes minimal assumptions about the underlying distribution of the data being studied. Often these models are infinite-dimensional, rather than finite dimensional, as is parametric statistics. Nonparametric statistics can be used for descriptive statistics or statistical inference. Nonparametric tests are often used when the assumptions of parametric tests are evidently violated.
Cross-validation, sometimes called rotation estimation or out-of-sample testing, is any of various similar model validation techniques for assessing how the results of a statistical analysis will generalize to an independent data set. Cross-validation includes resampling and sample splitting methods that use different portions of the data to test and train a model on different iterations. It is often used in settings where the goal is prediction, and one wants to estimate how accurately a predictive model will perform in practice. It can also be used to assess the quality of a fitted model and the stability of its parameters.
Mathematical statistics is the application of probability theory, a branch of mathematics, to statistics, as opposed to techniques for collecting statistical data. Specific mathematical techniques which are used for this include mathematical analysis, linear algebra, stochastic analysis, differential equations, and measure theory.
This glossary of statistics and probability is a list of definitions of terms and concepts used in the mathematical sciences of statistics and probability, their sub-disciplines, and related fields. For additional related terms, see Glossary of mathematics and Glossary of experimental design.
A permutation test is an exact statistical hypothesis test making use of the proof by contradiction. A permutation test involves two or more samples. The null hypothesis is that all samples come from the same distribution . Under the null hypothesis, the distribution of the test statistic is obtained by calculating all possible values of the test statistic under possible rearrangements of the observed data. Permutation tests are, therefore, a form of resampling.
Bootstrapping is any test or metric that uses random sampling with replacement, and falls under the broader class of resampling methods. Bootstrapping assigns measures of accuracy to sample estimates. This technique allows estimation of the sampling distribution of almost any statistic using random sampling methods.
Bradley Efron is an American statistician. Efron has been president of the American Statistical Association (2004) and of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (1987–1988). He is a past editor of the Journal of the American Statistical Association, and he is the founding editor of the Annals of Applied Statistics. Efron is also the recipient of many awards.
In statistical hypothesis testing, the null distribution is the probability distribution of the test statistic when the null hypothesis is true. For example, in an F-test, the null distribution is an F-distribution. Null distribution is a tool scientists often use when conducting experiments. The null distribution is the distribution of two sets of data under a null hypothesis. If the results of the two sets of data are not outside the parameters of the expected results, then the null hypothesis is said to be true.
In statistics, the jackknife is a cross-validation technique and, therefore, a form of resampling. It is especially useful for bias and variance estimation. The jackknife pre-dates other common resampling methods such as the bootstrap. Given a sample of size , a jackknife estimator can be built by aggregating the parameter estimates from each subsample of size obtained by omitting one observation.
The topic of heteroskedasticity-consistent (HC) standard errors arises in statistics and econometrics in the context of linear regression and time series analysis. These are also known as heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors, Eicker–Huber–White standard errors, to recognize the contributions of Friedhelm Eicker, Peter J. Huber, and Halbert White.
Computational statistics, or statistical computing, is the bond between statistics and computer science, and refers to the statistical methods that are enabled by using computational methods. It is the area of computational science specific to the mathematical science of statistics. This area is also developing rapidly, leading to calls that a broader concept of computing should be taught as part of general statistical education.
The Heckman correction is a statistical technique to correct bias from non-randomly selected samples or otherwise incidentally truncated dependent variables, a pervasive issue in quantitative social sciences when using observational data. Conceptually, this is achieved by explicitly modelling the individual sampling probability of each observation together with the conditional expectation of the dependent variable. The resulting likelihood function is mathematically similar to the tobit model for censored dependent variables, a connection first drawn by James Heckman in 1974. Heckman also developed a two-step control function approach to estimate this model, which avoids the computational burden of having to estimate both equations jointly, albeit at the cost of inefficiency. Heckman received the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2000 for his work in this field.
In statistics, the Horvitz–Thompson estimator, named after Daniel G. Horvitz and Donovan J. Thompson, is a method for estimating the total and mean of a pseudo-population in a stratified sample by applying inverse probability weighting to account for the difference in the sampling distribution between the collected data and the a target population. The Horvitz–Thompson estimator is frequently applied in survey analyses and can be used to account for missing data, as well as many sources of unequal selection probabilities.
The ratio estimator is a statistical estimator for the ratio of means of two random variables. Ratio estimates are biased and corrections must be made when they are used in experimental or survey work. The ratio estimates are asymmetrical and symmetrical tests such as the t test should not be used to generate confidence intervals.
In statistics, a sequence of random variables is homoscedastic if all its random variables have the same finite variance; this is also known as homogeneity of variance. The complementary notion is called heteroscedasticity, also known as heterogeneity of variance. The spellings homoskedasticity and heteroskedasticity are also frequently used. Assuming a variable is homoscedastic when in reality it is heteroscedastic results in unbiased but inefficient point estimates and in biased estimates of standard errors, and may result in overestimating the goodness of fit as measured by the Pearson coefficient.
References
1 2 Logan, J. David and Wolesensky, Willian R. Mathematical methods in biology. Pure and Applied Mathematics: a Wiley-interscience Series of Texts, Monographs, and Tracts. John Wiley& Sons, Inc. 2009. Chapter 6: Statistical inference. Section 6.6: Bootstrap methods
Good, P. (2006) Resampling Methods. 3rd Ed. Birkhauser.
Wolter, K.M. (2007). Introduction to Variance Estimation. 2nd Edition. Springer, Inc.
Pierre Del Moral (2004). Feynman-Kac formulae. Genealogical and Interacting particle systems with applications, Springer, Series Probability and Applications. ISBN978-0-387-20268-6
Pierre Del Moral (2013). Del Moral, Pierre (2013). Mean field simulation for Monte Carlo integration. Chapman & Hall/CRC Press, Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability. ISBN9781466504059
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