The Afghan economy continues to improve due to the influx of expats, establishment of more trade routes with neighboring and regional countries,[17] and expansion of the nation's agriculture, transport, energy and mining sectors.[18][19] The billions of dollars in assistance that came from expats and the international community saw this increase when there was more political stability.[20][21]
Despite holding over one trillion dollars in proven untapped mineral deposits, Afghanistan remains one of the least developed countries in the world. Its unemployment rate is little over 13%,[22] and around 48% of its population lives below the poverty line.[6] The main factor behind this has been the continuous war in the country, which deterred major infrastructure developments and foreign investments.[23] The population of Afghanistan increased by more than 50% between 2001 and 2014, while its GDP grew eightfold.[24] After the Islamic Emirate's return to power in 2021, the Biden administration decided to confiscate or withhold $9.5 billion worth of Afghanistan's assets to stop the Taliban from accessing it.[25][26][27]
When Afghanistan was ruled by EmirAbdur Rahman Khan (1880–1901) and his son Habibullah Khan (1901–1919), a great deal of commerce was controlled by the government. These monarchs were eager to develop the stature of government and the country's military capability, and so attempted to raise money by the imposition of state monopolies on the sale of commodities and high taxes. This slowed the long-term development of Afghanistan during that period. Western technologies and manufacturing methods were introduced at the command of the Afghan ruler, but in general only according to the logistical requirements of the growing army. An emphasis was placed on the manufacture of weapons and other military material. This process was in the hands of a small number of foreign experts invited to Kabul by the Afghans.[31] Otherwise, it was not possible for non-Afghans, particularly westerners, to set up large-scale enterprises in Afghanistan during that period.[32]
In the post-independence period, Da Afghanistan Bank strongly financed the cultivation of cotton; at one point, the Spinzar Cotton Company in Kunduz Province was one of the largest providers of cotton in the world, most of which were exported to the Soviet Union. Fruits were mainly exported to British-controlled India (now Pakistan and India).[33]
The first prominent plan to develop Afghanistan's economy in modern times was the Helmand Valley Authority project of 1952, modeled on the Tennessee Valley Authority in the United States, which was expected to be of primary economic importance.[34] Glenn Foster, an American contractor working in Afghanistan in the 1950s, stated this about the Afghan people:
Even though there are masses of people, the country seems able to feed them all. Although their diet may not be abundant, you don't see the hunger that you do in some countries....[35][31]
The same can be said today.[36] Afghanistan began facing severe economic hardships after the 1979 Soviet invasion, which caused the permanent closure of all its border checkpoints with neighboring Iran and Pakistan. The civil war of the 1990s destroyed much of the country's limited infrastructure, and disrupted normal patterns of economic activity. Eventually, Afghanistan went from a traditional economy to a centrally planned economy up until 2002 when it was replaced by a free market economy.[37] Gross domestic product has fallen substantially since the 1980s due to disruption of trade and transport as well as loss of labor and capital. Continuing internal strife severely hampered domestic efforts to rebuild the nation or provide ways for the international community to help.
According to the International Monetary Fund, the Afghan economy grew 20% in the fiscal year ending in March 2004, after expanding 30% in the previous 12 months. The growth was mainly attributed to United Nations assistance. Billions of dollars in international aid and remittences from expats had entered Afghanistan from 2002 to 2021. A GDP of $4 billion in fiscal year 2003 was recalculated by the IMF to $6.1 billion, after adding proceeds from opium production. Mean graduate pay was $0.56 per man-hour in 2010. The country is still striving to be self-sufficient in wheat, rice, poultry and dairy production.
The recent reestablishment of the Islamic Emirate led to temporary suspension of international development aid to Afghanistan.[38] The World Bank and International Monetary Fund also halted payments during that period.[39][40] In this regard, Hibatullah Akhundzada stated that "[t]he economy of a country is built when its people work together and do not rely on foreign aid[.]"[41] The Biden administration froze about $9 billion in assets belonging to the Da Afghanistan Bank, which was intended to block the Islamic Emirate from accessing the money.[42][43] The recent droughts, earthquakes and floods in the country have created further adverse economic situation for many residents.[44] The Ministry of Finance has collected over $2 billion in 2022.[45]
The GDP of Afghanistan is estimated to have dropped by 20% following the Islamic Emirate's return to power. Following this, after months of free-fall, the Afghan economy began stabilizing, as a result of restrictions on smuggled imports, limits on banking transactions, and UN aid. In 2023, the Afghan economy began seeing signs of revival. This has also been followed by stable exchange rates, low inflation, stable revenue collection, and the rise of trade in exports.[46] In the third quarter of 2023, the Afghani rose to be the best performing currency in the world, climbing over 9% against the US dollar.[47]
Agriculture remains Afghanistan's most important source of employment: 60-80 percent of Afghanistan's population works in this sector, although it accounts for less than a third of GDP due to insufficient irrigation, drought, lack of market access, and other structural impediments. Most Afghan farmers are primarily subsistence farmers.[48]
Afghanistan's northern and western provinces are known for pistachio cultivation.[64][65] In recent years, farmers in the southern provinces began growing American pistachio trees.[66] The provinces of Paktika, Paktia, Khost, Nangarhar, Nuristan and Kunduz are famous for pine nuts.[67] The dried fruits basically grow in all provinces of Afghanistan, and they are not only sold locally but also exported to other countries.[68][69][70]
The northern and central provinces are more famous for almond and walnut production.[71][72] The Bamyan Province is the leader of superior potatoes, which produced 370,000 tons in 2020. Nangarhar, Laghman and Kunar are the only provinces in the country where major farming of grapefruits, lemons, limes, and oranges can be found.[73][74] Nangarhar also has farms of dates, peanuts, olives, and sugarcane.[75][76][77] Cultivation of these products have gradually spread to more provinces.[78][79] Other agricultural products such as avocados, bananas, guavas, mangos and pineapples have recently been planted in the provinces of Balkh, Helmand, Laghman, Nangarhar, and Paktia.[80][81][82]
Afghanistan is listed as the 54th largest vegetables producing country. Most of its vegetables are for domestic consumption and include beans, broccoli, cabbages, carrots, cauliflowers, chickpeas, coriander, corns, cucumbers, eggplants, leeks, lettuces, okras, onions, peppers, potatoes, pumpkins, radishes, rhubarb, spinach, tomatoes, turnips, and zucchinis. Wheat and cereal production is Afghanistan's traditional agricultural mainstay. The nation is nearing self-sufficiency in grain production. It requires an additional 2.3 million tons of wheat to become self-sufficient,[83] which is predicted to be accomplished in the near future.[84]
Arable land in Afghanistan was reported to be over 7.5 million hectares.[91][92] Wheat production had stood at 4.83 million metric tons in 2024,[93] nurseries held 119,000 hectares of land, and grape production is at 615,000 tons. Cotton production has jumped to 500,000 tons.[94] Around 3,200ha (7,900 acres) of farm land in Afghanistan is used to cultivate saffron,[95] mostly in the west, north and south of the country.[96][97][98] Sugarcane is currently grown on 1,750ha (4,300 acres) of land,[77] and asafoetida on nearly 980ha (2,400 acres) of land.[99]
These days up to 2.8% of Afghanistan is forested, which amounts to nearly 2,000,000ha (4,900,000 acres) of the land.[100] In 2010 it was about 2.1% (or 1,350,000ha (3,300,000 acres)).[101] It can be increased significanly by planting more trees, including in the non-rocky mountains that trap underground water.[102] Some small steps have been taken in recent years in planting trees all across Afghanistan.[103][100]Felling has been made illegal nationally.[104][105][106][107]
Afghanistan is landlocked with its citizens having no direct access to an ocean. The country has many lakes, ponds, reservoirs, rivers, springs, streams, etc.,[108] which make it a suitable climate for fish farming.[109] Historically, fish constituted a smaller part of the Afghan diet because of the unavailability of modern fish farms. Fishing only took place in the lakes and rivers, particularly in the Amu, Helmand and Kabul rivers.[110] Consumption of fish has increased sharply due to the establishment of thousands of fish farms.[111] Over 7,000 new ones are being established in the coming years.[112] The largest ones are at the national reservoirs, which supply fish eggs to smaller fish farms.[113]
Afghanistan has at least $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits.[137] A memo from the Pentagon stated that Afghanistan could become the "Saudi Arabia of lithium".[138] Some believe that the untapped minerals may be worth up to $3 trillion.[139][140][141] The Khanashincarbonatites in the Helmand Province of the country have an estimated 1 million metric tonnes of rare earth elements.[142]
Afghanistan currently has a copper mining deal with China Metallurgical Group Corporation,[143] which involves the investment of $2.8 billion by China and an annual income of about $400 million to the Afghan government. The country's Ainak copper mine, located in Logar Province, is one of the biggest in the world. It is estimated to hold at least 11 million tonnes or US$33 billion worth of copper.[144]
The previous Islamic Republic has signed a 30-year contract with investment group Centar and its operating company, Afghan Gold and Minerals Co., to explore and develop a copper mining operation in Balkhab District in Sar-e Pol Province, including a gold mining operation in Badakhshan Province. The copper contract involved a $56 million investment and the gold contract a $22 million investment.[145]
The country's other treasure is the Hajigak iron mine, located 210km (130mi) west of Kabul and is believed to hold an estimated 1.8 billion to 2 billion metric tons of the mineral used to make steel.[146][147] The country also has a number of coal mines.[148][149][150]
Afghanistan's important resource in the past has been natural gas, which was first tapped in 1967. During the 1980s, gas sales accounted for $300 million a year in export revenues (56% of the total). About 90% of these exports went to the Soviet Union to pay for imports and debts. However, during the withdrawal of Soviet troops in 1989, the natural gas fields were capped to prevent sabotage by criminals. Gas production has dropped from a high of 8.2×10^6m3 (290×10^6cuft) per day in the 1980s to a low of about 600,000m3 (21×10^6cuft) in 2001. Production of natural gas was restored during the Karzai administration in 2010.[151]
It is predicted that by pumping-out its own oil reserves,[152][153][154] Afghanistan will no longer need to import oil products.[155] Originally, the Karzai administration and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) signed a contract for the development of three oil fields in the northern provinces of Sar-e Pol, Jowzjan and Faryab.[156][157] It was later reported that CNPC began extracting 240,000m3 (1.5×10^6bbl) of oil annually.[158] In early 2023, the Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Company signed a similar contract with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.[159]
Afghanistan embarked on a modest economic development program in the 1930s. The government founded banks; introduced paper money; established a university; expanded primary, secondary, and technical schools; and sent students abroad for education. In 1952 it created the Helmand Valley Authority to manage the economic development of the Helmand and Arghandab valleys through irrigation and land development,[34] a scheme which remains one of the country's most important capital resources.[160]
In 1956, the government promulgated the first in a long series of ambitious development plans.[31] By the late 1970s, these had achieved only mixed results due to flaws in the planning process as well as inadequate funding and a shortage of the skilled managers and technicians needed for implementation.[161] Afghanistan became a member of ECO, OIC, SAARC, and WTO. It has an observer status in the SCO.
A shopping area in the Khair Khana neighborhood of Kabul
Some of the ongoing national mega projects include the Qosh Tepa Canal, the TAPI gas pipeline, the CASA-1000 electricity line, the Afghanistan Ring Road modernization, and the New Kabul housing project.[163] Other smaller housing projects include the Qatar Township in Kabul, Aino Mena in Kandahar and the Ghazi Amanullah Khan Town east of Jalalabad. Hundreds of similar projects are also found in Herat in the west, Mazar-e-Sharif in the north, Khost in the east, and in other cities.[164]
There are more than 5,000 factories operating in Afghanistan.[165][166] Most are locally owned,[167][168] while others involve foreign investors.[169][170][171] They produce construction materials, furniture, household items, apparel, food, beverages, pharmaceutical products, etc.[172][173][174] The country imports roughly $500 million of textile goods from other countries.[175] It exported about $168 million worth of cotton in 2022.[176]Afghan handwoven rugs are one of the most popular products for exportation. Other products include hand crafted antique replicas as well as leather and furs. Afghanistan is the third largest exporter of cashmere.[177]
After the Islamic Emirate returned to power, the country suffered from a major liquidity crisis and lack of banknotes.[178] Because outside donors have severely cut funding to support Afghanistan's health, education, and other essential sectors, many Afghans lost their incomes. Under the assessment system of the World Food Programme (WFP), almost 20 million people suffered either level-3 “crisis” or level-4 “emergency” levels of food insecurity. The impact of the crisis on women and girls was especially severe.[179] Officials under the Islamic Emirate continue to provide communication services to areas that lacked them.[180] They collected 61 billion afghanis in tariffs in 2022,[181] which increased to 76 billion in 2023.[182] And they continue to attract foreign investors.[183][184][185][186][187][188]
Tourism in Afghanistan was at its peak in 1977. Many foreign tourists visited Afghanistan, including from as far away as Europe and North America. After a long halt since 1978, it has restarted.[189] Between 4,000 and 20,000 foreign tourists visit Afghanistan every year.[190][191][192] As many as 371,000 Afghans have visited different parts of the country in 2022.[193] Although the country is considered safe now, deadly attacks on tourists cannot be ruled out. Certain foreign nationals have been strongly advised by their governments to avoid visiting Afghanistan.[194]
Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat (DABS) is the national electricity provider.[211] It charges customers 2.5 afghanis per kw in Kabul Province, 4 afghanis in Herat Province, and around 6 afghanis in Balkh Province.[212] In certain remote areas private companies may provide electricity to villagers by charging them different prices.
Renewable energy alternatives, such as wind and solar energy, has been identified as a high value power source for the future. Afghanistan has the potential to produce over 222,000 MW of electricity by using solar panels.[213][214] The country also has the potential to produce over 66,000 MW of electricity by using wind turbines. A number of major solar and wind farms exist in the country, with more under development.[215][216]
↑"Afghanistan and Pakistan's Looming Water Conflict". The Diplomat. December 15, 2018. Retrieved 2021-04-23. Afghanistan has abundant water resources. It produces 80 billion cubic meters of water a year, pumping 60 billion cubic meters of it to the neighbors — particularly Pakistan.
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