Opinion polling for the 2024 Romanian parliamentary election

Last updated

In preparation for the 2024 Romanian parliamentary election, which took on 1 December 2024, [1] various polling companies and organisations from Romania have already (more specifically since December 2020 onwards) been carrying out a series of opinion polling to gauge and keep track of the voting intention among the overall electorate.

Contents

Polls

2024

DatePoll sourceSample size PSD–PNL United Right AUR UDMR PRO PUSL AER REPER SOS POT Others Lead
PSD PNL USR PMP FD PER PV
1 December 2024 2024 Chamber election —21.9613.2012.402.0518.016.33——0.37—1.247.366.4610.623.95
2024 Senate election —22.3014.2812.261.8818.306.38——0.42—1.377.766.398.664
26 - 28 Nov 2024 AtlasIntel 2,11621.413.417.52.522.45.5————1.54.64.66.61
9 - 13 Nov 2024 Newsweek 1,0403120122165————15—218
7 -12 Nov 2024 INSCOP 1,10031.116.212.71.120.74.5———1.22.65.9—410.4
30 Oct - 5 Nov 2024 CURS 1,0673220123155—————6—712
24 – 28 Oct 2024 Newsweek 1,1503120.516.53.117.56.5————0.92.6—1.210.5
11 – 18 Oct 2024 INSCOP 1,10630.213.212.73.1183—————7—38.8
11 – 16 Oct 2024 CURS 1,0063120151.40.621.43.7——2.1—2.58.1—4.111
7 – 9 Oct 2024 Verified for USR 1,00928.212.619.51.01.722.74.20.70.20.5—2.45.3—1.08.7
11 - 16 Sep 2024 INSCOP 1,10230.114.317.10.80.914.75.01.40.3—0.71.98.9—3.913
24 – 30 Aug 2024 The Center for International Research and Analyses 1,09931.022.013.01.01.014.05.0————1.010.0—2.09
Aug 2024 Verified for USR —29.317.813.11.61.516.62.92.50.41.4—2.58.7—1.711.5
19 – 27 June 2024 INSCOP Research 1,10029.418.912.2——14.74.61.11.52.21.93.66.1—3.811.5
9 June 2024 2024 European election —48.558.7114.936.48—1.48——3.745.03—11.08 [a] 33.62
9 June 2024 2024 Local Election —32.5226.1311.549.615.420.341.470.680.801.39—10.106.39
14 Feb-4 Mar 2024 INSCOP 2,00032.819.710.6 [b] 16.53.92.511.416.2—4.4 [c] 13.1
19-20 Feb 2024 Avangarde NA312015 [d] 185————28—111
3-8 Jan 2024 Snap Market Research 998321210 [e] 13611——1816 [f] 19
6 December 2020 2020 Chamber election —28.9025.1815.374.82—9.085.744.091.191.120.35—6.823.72
2020 Senate election —29.3225.5815.864.93—9.175.894.131.011.330.40—5.123.74

2023

DatePoll sourceSample size PSD PNL USR AUR UDMR PMP PRO [g] PUSL PER PV REPER FD S.O.S. RSB Others Lead
16 - 28 Dec 2023 ARA Public Opinion 1.00230.616.214.69.65.03.51.04.02.7——2.82.47.514.4
25–30 Nov 2023 Snap Market Research 98329138166521——11585 [h] 13
20–27 Nov 2023 INSCOP 1.10030.220.111.919.54.91.32.00.7—1.90.30.65.21.310.1
30 Oct–6 Nov 2023 Mercury Research 1,2272917152043—0——12449
23 Oct–2 Nov 2023 INSCOP 1,10029.518.414.120.23.81.72.6——2.60.51.04.31.49.3
20–29 Oct 2023 AtlasIntel 2,00021.412.917.716.06.08.21.20.2——3.94.66.81.0 [i] 3.7
11–25 Sep 2023 LARICS 1,00332.023.914.714.32.94.0—0.9————4.77.38.1
15–22 Sep 2023 INSCOP 1,55029.120.41122.44.61.71.5——2.50.713.14.96.7
12–22 Sep 2023 CURS 1,008311911184424————5712
8–19 Sep 2023 Sociopol 1,0042915152353——3———346
4–10 Sep 2023 PNL 1,03230201420541————13510
24–31 Aug 2023 CURS 1,0673219121954—2————4313
8–20 July 2023 CURS —311812204424————4511
June 2023 INSCOP —28.718.012.720.1—————————20.58.6
May–June 2023 Geeks for Democracy 80631.019.011.018.05.0————————16.012.0
27 May–11 June 2023 The Center —28.018.013.022.06.03.02.0————2.0—6.06.0
19–27 May 2023 CURS 1,08231.020.011.017.05.05.0—4.0—————7.012.0
12–17 May 2023 CURS 1,06732.020.010.017.05.05.0—3.0—————8.012.0
10–20 March 2023 CURS 1,10533.021.09.016.05.05.0—4.0—————7.012.0
5–19 Feb 2023 INSCOP 3,00031.722.311.218.24.62.92.4——1.4———5.49.4
1–13 Feb 2023 INSCOP 1,00030.421.610.919.14.33.02.9—1.62.70.10.7—2.78.8
27–30 Jan 2023 Atlas Intel 2,00024.817.212.417.96.45.94.0———1.92.9—2.86.9
10–20 Jan 2023 CURS 1,06736.022.08.014.05.04.04.04.0—————3.014.0
6 December 2020 2020 Chamber election —28.9025.1815.379.085.744.824.091.191.120.35——6.823.72
2020 Senate election —29.3225.5815.869.175.894.934.131.011.330.40——5.123.74

2022

DatePoll sourceSample size PSD PNL USR PLUS/USR AUR UDMR PMP PRO ALDE [j] PUSL PER ApP [k] REPER FD Others Lead
Dec 2022 INSCOP —31.520.210.918.1—————————19.311.3
8–22 Nov 2022 CURS 1,067342491254——4————8.010.0
Oct 2022 Sociopol —361911144221030413.017.0
8–22 Sep 2022 CURS 1,01535228155—4—4————8.013.0
Aug 2022 Sociopol —321511256————————11.07.0
5–17 Aug 2022 CURS —32231013—42—433—22.09.0
22–31 Jul 2022 Avangarde c. 9003723911541—3—2122.014.0
22–30 Jun 2022 Avangarde 9033520912552—4—2222.015.0
17–30 Jun 2022 IPSOS 1,07237.825.412.710.1334——————4.012.4
19–26 May 2022 CURS 1,067352391056——422——4.012.0
12–20 Apr 2022 Avangarde 906361911145————————16.017.0
28 Mar–11 Apr 2022 CURS 2,75035231112553—2—1—12.012.0
22–29 Mar 2022 Avangarde 90035161215—————————22.019.0
2–11 Mar 2022CURS1,1723620814542—422——3.016.0
2–7 Mar 2022 INSCOP 1,0773219.910.818.9—————————18.413.6
9–19 Feb 2022 Sociopol 1,001351613226122002—10.018.0
20–31 Jan 2022 Avangarde 90335161218—————————19.017.0
22–29 Jan 2022 CURS 1,003351710165424432—32.018.0
10–18 Jan 2022 INSCOP 1,16234.316.612.520.64.22.12.9—1.3—1.0—1.71.513.7
6 December 2020 2020 Chamber election —28.9025.1815.379.085.744.824.091.191.12———6.823.72
2020 Senate election —29.3225.5815.869.175.894.934.131.011.33———5.123.74

2021

DatePoll sourceSample size PSD PNL FD USR PLUS AUR UDMR PMP PRO ALDE PUSL PER ApP [k] Others Lead
15–23 Dec 2021 Avangarde 90739.018.0—10.017.05.03.02.0—4.0—1.01.021.0
17–22 Dec 2021 Sociopol 1,00133.015.03.012.023.05.02.02.01.0—1.01.02.010.0
13–17 Dec 2021 CURS 1,10038.019.0—11.013.05.05.0——4.0——5.019.0
25 Nov 2021The Ciucă Cabinet , supported by a grand coalition consisting of the PNL , PSD , and UDMR/RMDSZ is voted and invested
16–24 Nov 2021 Avangarde 90640.017.0—11.015.05.04.01.01.04.0——2.023.0
17–22 Nov 2021 CURS 1,10038.018.0—11.014.05.04.03.01.03.0——3.020.0
9–12 Nov 2021 PPU 1,02330.53.07.523.012.05.06.55.51.02.5—2.51.07.5
before 3 Nov 2021 FL 1,21734.08.020.012.05.06.55.52.01.0—2.04.014.0
25–30 Oct 2021 CURS 1,10039.019.0—11.012.05.05.03.0—4.0——2.020.0
17–26 Oct 2021 Avangarde 90040.017.0—13.014.05.04.02.01.04.0——0.023.0
15–25 Oct 2021 INSCOP 1,10035.521.9—12.414.25.02.93.2—0.5—1.72.813.6
12–20 Oct 2021 CURS 1,20239.021.0—11.013.05.0——————11.018.0
12–17 Oct 2021 APP 1,12230.03.011.517.517.04.06.05.01.5——3.51.012.5
12–17 Oct 2021 INSCOP 1,10036.719.8—16.415.33.02.13.0————3.816.9
11–15 Oct 2021 Sociopol 1,00232.020.0—13.021.06.0——————8.011.0
26–29 Sep 2021 Gazeta Civică 1,20228.017.018.017.55.05.54.01.0——3.02.010.0
28 Sep 2021 INSOMAR 1,03031.625.915.017.04.62.52.3———1.20.05.7
15–27 Sep 2021 INSCOP 1,20435.421.99.817.1—2.94.4————8.513.5
14–21 Sep 2021 Avangarde 90037.020.013.014.05.04.01.01.04.0——1.017.0
8–10 Sep 2021 CURS 86136.019.011.014.05.05.03.02.04.0——1.017.0
3–5 Sep 2021 CURS 85335.020.011.012.05.05.03.03.04.0——2.015.0
1 Sep 2021The 2021 Romanian political crisis begins, leading to the break-up of the centre-right governmental coalition and a PNL splinter
20–24 Aug 2021 Avangarde 90035.021.014.015.05.05.02.0—1.0——2.0 [l] 14.0
12–20 Aug 2021 CURS 1,06734.020.012.011.05.05.03.03.04.0——3.014.0
15–19 Aug 2021 IRES 1,00635.027.014.014.05.02.02.01.0———2.08.0
26 Jul 2021 INSOMAR —38.115.111.115.05.1——————15.823.0
9–19 Jul 2021 Avangarde 90334.023.013.015.05.0——————10.011.0
1–15 Jul 2021 Sociopol 1,10031.027.015.010.07.02.03.0——2.0—3.04.0
24 Jun 2021 INSOMAR 1,03022.925.015.018.05.1—2.02.9———7.22.1
11–18 Jun 2021 CURS 1,06734.022.014.012.04.05.02.03.02.0——4.012.0
1–15 Jun 2021 INSCOP 1,10030.226.613.214.2—2.84.3————8.73.6
18 May 2021 Sociopol 1,10036221511625011—1.0 [m] 14.0
18 May 2021 IRES 1,10036.028.011.014.03.0—3.0——1.0—8.08.0
1–8 May 2021 Avangarde 90036.023.014.015.05.02.02.0—1.01.0—2.013.0
7 May 2021 INSOMAR 1,03022.123.513.615.58.64.64.1————8.41.4
14–17 Apr 2021 CURS 1,10733.021.016.012.04.05.03.0—4.0——2.012.0
30 Mar–11 Apr 2021BCS [2] 1,42028.922.322.510.04.04.22.9————5.16.4
12–28 Mar 2021 Sociopol —35.026.017.012.04.03.02.0————1.09.0
22–26 Feb 2021 CURS 1,10034.025.016.09.04.03.02.0—3.0——4.010.0
10–14 Feb 2021 PER 1,05533.025.020.08.04.04.04.02.0—3.0—4.08.0
9–11 Feb 2021 INSOMAR 1,03028.027.014.016.06.04.01.0————4.01.0
15–17 Jan 2021 Avangarde 71034.024.016.014.05.03.01.0————3.010.0
11–15 Jan 2021 CURS 1,10034.026.016.012.05.03.02.0————2.08.0
17–21 Dec 2020 CURS 1,10035.026.014.015.04.02.02.0————2.09.0
10–20 Dec 2020 Avangarde 90035.026.015.014.05.02.01.0————2.09.0
6 December 2020 2020 Chamber election —28.9025.1815.379.085.744.824.091.191.12—6.823.72
2020 Senate election —29.3225.5815.869.175.894.934.131.011.33—5.123.74
  1. ↑ PDU: 1.79%; Patriots Party: 0.73%; PRM: 0.66%; AD: 0.45%; ARS: 0.42%
  2. ↑ In this scenario, USR, PMP and FD are running on the same list
  3. ↑ BSR: 0.5%
  4. ↑ In this scenario, USR, PMP and FD are running on the same list
  5. ↑ In this scenario, USR, PMP and FD are running on the same list
  6. ↑ UNPR: 4%; BSR: 9%
  7. ↑ Also included ALDE in its overall political score in the 2020 parliamentary elections.
  8. ↑ National Union for the Progress of Romania: 3%
  9. ↑ PNȚ-CD 0.4%
  10. ↑ ALDE is no longer active at any political level since late March 2022, having been entirely absorbed by the PNL in the meantime.
  11. 1 2 Formerly known as PAINE.
  12. ↑ PRM - 1.0%
  13. ↑ PRM - 0%

Probable projection of seats in the next parliament

166 seats are needed for a chamber majority.

DatePoll source PSD PNL USR PLUS/USR AUR UDMR PMP PRO ApP [a] FD Nat. min. Lead
19–26 May 2022 CURS 1338834381900001845
12–20 Apr 2022 Avangarde 1327040521800001862
17–22 Dec 2021 Sociopol 1175342821800001835
17–26 Oct 2021 Avangarde 1405946491800001881
12–17 Oct 2021 INSCOP 1256856521100001857
12–17 Oct 2021 APP [ permanent dead link ]10942636214210001846
26–29 Sep 2021 Gazeta Civică [ permanent dead link ]9557615917180001834
28 Sep 2021 INSOMAR 1048549561500001819
9–19 Jul 2021Avangarde1188045521700001838
11–15 Jan 2021CURS1138853401800001825
6 December 2020 2020 Chamber election 11093 [3] 55332100—PNL [4] 1817

Approval ratings

DatePoll sourceSample size Ciolacu
PSD 		Iohannis
PNL 		Orban
PNL/FD 		Cîțu
PNL 		Ciucă
PNL 		Cioloș
USR PLUS 		Barna
USR PLUS 		Dragu
USR PLUS 		Simion
AUR 		Kelemen
UDMR 		Băsescu
PMP 		Diaconescu
PMP
31 Jan 22 CURS —27.018.010.011.027.013.0——21.013.011.015.0
17–26 Oct 21 Avangarde 90025.014.09.07.0—13.09.0—20.0———
14–21 Sep 21 Avangarde 90033.030.0—14.016.012.012.0—14.0———
12–20 Aug 21CURS1,10027.032.0—18.014.016.014.011.015.012.011.017.0
11–18 Jun 21CURS1,06726.033.0—19.015.018.014.014.018.011.014.017.0
6 May 21INSOMAR1,03020.1—21.9——8.212.0—14.1——8.3
14–17 Apr 21CURS1,10726.0—20.024.0—16.015.0—21.013.0——
11 Apr 21BCS1,42014.0—17.521.6—18.616.8—12.26.516.611.8
22–26 Feb 21CURS1,10025.037.0—17.014.020.018.014.020.018.0——

2021 political crisis poll

Polling firmDateQuestion Iohannis PNL USR Cîțu PSD N/A [5]
Avangarde [6] Oct 2021Who is the main culprit (i.e. guilty) for the current political crisis?18%14%11%8%1%48%

Approval ratings for former Prime Minister Florin Cîțu (April–October 2021)

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample size Florin Cîțu

(PNL)

Yes check.svgX mark.svgBlue question mark (italic).svgNet
CURS25–30 Oct 20211,10010.081.09.0−71.0
Avangarde17–26 Oct 20219007.074.019.0−67.0
Avangarde14–21 Sep 202190014.061.025.0−47.0
CURS12–20 Aug 20211,10018.077.05.0−59.0
CURS11–18 Jun 20211,06719.075.06.0−56.0
CURS14–17 Apr 20211,10724.069.07.0−45.0
BCS11 Apr 20211,42021.668.59.8−46.9


National approval rating

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeIs Romania going on a good path/direction?
Yes check.svgX mark.svgBlue question mark (italic).svgNet
ApprovedDisapproval
Avangarde17–26 Oct 20219008.080.012.0−72.0

Notes

  1. ↑ Formerly known as PAINE.

References

  1. ↑ Marica, Irina (4 July 2024). "Romania's ruling parties agree on dates for presidential and parliamentary elections". Romania Insider. Archived from the original on 31 August 2024.
  2. ↑ BCS - Biroul de Cercetări Sociale (11 April 2021). "Credințe și valori în societatea românească 30 martie - 11 aprilie 2021" . Retrieved 10 November 2021.
  3. ↑ Subsequently, several deputies decided to leave the PNL and follow former PNL president and former Prime Minister Ludovic Orban in his new political project, Force of the Right (or FD for short), shortly after PNL decided to form a new cabinet with PSD; therefore at one point in time during this legislature of the Romanian parliament, PNL had 81 deputies whereas FD had 16. Currently, PNL has even fewer deputies, namely 79 (more specifically as of late October 2023).
  4. ↑ At that time, more specifically in late 2020, 13 deputies previously seating with FD as of late 2021 were part of the PNL parliamentary group in the Chamber of Deputies. Currently, there are 16 deputies seating with FD, 3 more than initially, through party switching from AUR.
  5. ↑ Don't know/No opinion
  6. ↑ Avangarde (27 October 2021). "Barometrul Opiniei Publice Național Octombrie 2021" (PDF). Retrieved 10 November 2021.
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