Opinion polling for the 2024 Romanian presidential election

Last updated

In preparation for the next presidential elections in Romania, which took place on November 24 (first round) and second round who would have taken place on December 8, 2024, various polling companies and organizations in Romania have already conducted a series of opinion polls to measure and track voting intention among the electorate in assembly. The results of all these opinion polls are shown in the annual tables below in this Wikipedia article.

Contents

First round graphic representation

Opinion polling for the 2024 Romanian presidential election.svg

Second round

Georgescu vs Lasconi (annulled)

PollDateSample Georgescu
Ind. 		Lasconi
USR
IRES 17 - 20 Dec 20241,00048.029.0
AtlasIntel 28 Nov–5 Dec 20245.50546.448.6
Sociopol [1] 3–4 Dec 20241.20063.037.0
AtlasIntel 1–4 Dec 20242.11647.043.8
Curs 1 Dec 202424.62957.842.2
Sociopol [1] 27–29 Nov 20241.00060.040.0
AtlasIntel 26–28 Nov 20242.11645.347.5

First round

After the deadline for submitting candidacies to BEC (5 October 2024)

PollDateSample Georgescu
Ind. 		Lasconi
USR 		Ciolacu
PSD 		Simion
AUR 		Ciucă
PNL 		Geoană
Ind. 		Kelemen
UDMR 		Diaconescu
Ind. 		Terheș
PNCR 		Birchall
Ind. 		Orban
FD 		Others
Election (annulled first round) 24 Nov 2024—22.919.219.113.98.86.34.53.11.00.50.20.5
AtlasIntel 20–22 Nov 20241.6928.117.823.716.914.36.92.96.21.00.70.80.7
Verifield for USR 20–21 Nov 20241.80310.619.024.519.08.67.93.45.10.70.6—0.6
AtlasIntel 15–20 Nov 20242.0036.215.324.315.412.17.05.93.32.14.21.52.7
INSOMAR 14–20 Nov 20241.0426.812.724.416.215.68.43.64.43.8———
Verifield for USR 8–14 Nov 20249684.917.126.318.87.38.14.76.82.8—1.12.1
INSCOP 7–12 Nov 20241.1005.414.325.319.19.113.34.14.62.10.81.00.6 [2]
BCS 7–10 Nov 20241.1575.814.327.111.917.77.65.74.92.90.51.0—
Sociopol [1] 4–8 Nov 20241.001—12.029.021.015.09.02.09.03.0———
CIRA 1–6 Nov 20241.1501.016.029.017.019.09.01.0——1.0——
Verifield for USR 1–6 Nov 20241.0644.615.725.921.28.513.22.94.40.31.21.11.0 [3]
CURS [4] 30 Oct–5 Nov1.067—12.028.017.017.09.05.05.04.02.0—1.0
Argument 18-23 Oct 20241.100—15.926.818.412.914.61.34.80.40.50.73.6
Sociopol [1] 14-18 Oct 20241.0031.013.026.020.017.010.02.09.01.0—1.0—
INSCOP 11-18 Oct 20241.106—15.024.120.78.218.13.85.11.90.91.90.3
CURS [5] 11-16 Oct 20241.006—14.026.017.015.015.02.05.02.02.02.02.0
Verifield for USR 7-9 Oct 20241.009—17.123.419.86.217.23.87.63.10.70.70.4
Sociopol [1] 7-9 Oct 20241.0042.012.026.019.017.010.02.09.02.02.01.0—

Before the deadline for submitting candidacies to BEC (5 October 2024)

PollDateSample Geoană
Ind. 		Ciolacu
PSD 		Simion
AUR 		Ciucă
PNL 		Șoșoacă
S.O.S. 		USR

[6]

Kelemen
UDMR 		Cioloș
REPER 		Kövesi
Ind. 		Others
INSOMAR-Avangarde 15–27 Sep 20241.10015.030.011.017.07.014.02.0——— [a]
CURS 10–23 Sep 20241.06716.029.011.018.07.012.0———— [b]
INSCOP 11–16 Sep 20241.10220.820.512.45.612.516.03.6——— [c]
FlashData 5–13 Sep 20241.10016.024.019.013.08.013.0———7.0
Verifield 15–30 august 20241.79317.821.914.95.912.916.31.8——8.5
Sociopol 26 Aug-3 Sep 20241,00514.026.019.010.09.014.01.0——— [d]
Verifield for USR Aug 2024TBA21.017.214.17.313.915.32.38.8
The Center for International Research and Analyses 24–30 Aug 20241,09914.025.013.016.011.013.03.0——5.0 [e]
CURS 6–22 Aug 20241,06715.032.014.019.05.011.0———4.0
ARA for Antena3 9–26 Jul 20241,00920.028.010.06.012.012.0———14.0
CURS 18–26 Jul 20241,06715.031.015.019.04.012.03.0———
Sociopol 9–17 Jul 20241,00215.025.019.012.09.014.01.0——— [f]
CURS 26 Jun–2 Jul 20241,06717.030.013.020.06.09.03.0——2.0
INSCOP 19–27 June 20241,10026.717.811.211.913.414.33.4——1.2
CSPS June 20241,01324.016.028.06.04.017.05.0———
INSCOP 20–25 May 20241,10023.718.213.511.512.58.65.5——6.4
AtlasIntel 5–9 April 20241,76433.6—11.8—10.710.91.46.9—
279.612.6510.611.30.76.1—
27.39.212.4—9.813.63.06.4—-
INSCOP 14 Feb–5 Mar 20242,00026.024.013.012.08.0—3.0—9.0-
INSCOP Research 16–24 Jan 20241,10026.518.913.311.414.05.93.65.1-1.3
Snap Market Research 3–8 Jan 2024998122913814— [g] 5—10 [h] 9 [i]

Opinion polls with Geoană (2023)

PollDateSample Geoană
Ind. 		Ciolacu
PSD 		Simion
AUR 		Ciucă
PNL 		Șoșoacă
S.O.S. 		Drulă
USR 		Lasconi
USR 		Orban
FD 		Kelemen
UDMR 		Cioloș
REPER 		Kövesi
Ind. 		Hellvig
Ind. 		Others
INSCOP 20–27 Nov 20231,10026.220.814.012.114.44.2——2.43.9——1.9
INSCOP 23 Oct–2 Nov 20231,10027.721.8 [j] 18.9—10.5—12.1—3.14.3———
AtlasIntel 20–29 Oct 20232,00020.410.37.70.713.36.92.33.43.02.410.96.413.4
INSCOP 15–22 Sep 20231,55025.319.518.711.210.15.6——2.74.1——3.4
AtlasIntel 27–30 Jan 20232,00022.6—10.64.96.18.0—3.84.42.016.40.420.9 [k]
14.66.29.74.65.54.5—5.12.95.116.90.524.2 [l]
ElectionNov 2019——22.26—37.82—15.02—3.87————

Opinion polls without Geoană (2023)

PollDateSample Ciucă
PNL 		Ciolacu
PSD 		Drulă
USR 		Kelemen
UDMR 		Kövesi
Ind. 		Simion
AUR 		Șoșoacă
S.O.S. 		Cioloș
REPER 		Orban
FD 		Hellvig
Ind. 		Others
INSCOP 20–27 Nov 20231,10014.127.47.12.7—18.019.16.7——4.9
AtlasIntel 27–30 Jan 20232,0008.013.37.42.115.710.45.95.35.02.924.1 [m]
ElectionNov 2019—37.8222.2615.023.87———————

Opinion polls with potential candidates (before 2023)

PollDateSample Cîțu

PNL

Orban

PNL

Ciolacu

PSD

Barna

USR PLUS

Cioloș

USR PLUS

Drulă

USR PLUS

Diaconescu

PMP

Kelemen

UDMR

Simion

AUR

Șoșoacă

NR/S.O.S.

Geoană

Ind.

Dragnea

PAINE/ApP

Others
Gazeta Civică [7] 15–31 Jul 20211,11211.0—4.0——22.0—5.0——33.0—6.0
INSOMAR [8] 1–8 May 20211,030—12.0316.122.0013.4—8.3—14.24.0—6.63.37
INSOMAR [9] 8–11 Feb 20211,0303.011.423.021.012.6——3.017.0——0.08.96
ElectionNov 201937.8222.2615.025.723.870.34——14.97

The first round among Romanian citizens from the Republic of Moldova

PollDateSample Geoană
Ind. 		Ciolacu
PSD 		Simion
AUR 		Ciucă
PNL 		Șoșoacă
S.O.S. 		Drulă
USR 		Kelemen
UDMR 		Cioloș
REPER 		Piedone
PUSL 		Others/
N/A
iDATA 22 – 26 Apr 20241,00615.03.12.43.44.80.71.05.56.158.0 [10]
34.67.15.57.811.11.6 [11] 2.312.714.1—
CBS-Research 6 – 13 Apr 20241,00814.14.71.02.44.10.9———72.8 [12]
51.917.33.715.014.03.3————

Hypothetical second round

Geoană vs Ciolacu

PollDateSample Geoană
Ind. 		Ciolacu
PSD
INSCOP 19 - 27 June 20241,10063.736.3
INSCOP 14 Feb–5 Mar 20242,00061.039.0
AtlasIntel 20–29 Oct 20232,00064.935.1

Geoană vs Simion

PollDateSample Geoană
Ind. 		Simion
AUR
INSCOP 14 Feb–5 Mar 20242,00075.025.0
AtlasIntel 20–29 Oct 20232,00071.828.2
INSCOP 15–22 Sep 20231,55063.536.5
AtlasIntel 27–30 Jan 20232,00069.530.5

Geoană vs Ciucă

PollDateSample Geoană
Ind. 		Ciucă
PNL
INSCOP 19–27 June 20241,10063.936.1
AtlasIntel 27–30 Jan 20232,00076.223.8

Geoană vs Kövesi

PollDateSample Geoană
Ind. 		Kövesi
Ind.
INSCOP 14 Feb–5 Mar 20242,00066.034.0
AtlasIntel 20–29 Oct 20232,00061.238.8
AtlasIntel 27–30 Jan 20232,00053.146.9

Geoană vs Lasconi

PollDateSample Geoană
Ind. 		Lasconi
USR
INSCOP 19 - 27 June 20241,20066.233.8

Ciolacu vs Simion

PollDateSample Ciolacu
PSD 		Simion
AUR
AtlasIntel 20–29 Oct 20232,00069.530.5
INSCOP 15–22 Sep 20231,55058.841.2
AtlasIntel 27–30 Jan 20232,00054.145.9

Ciolacu vs Lasconi

PollDateSample Ciolacu
PSD 		Lasconi
USR
INSCOP 19–27 June 20242,00058.042.0

Ciolacu vs Drulă

PollDateSample Ciolacu
PSD 		Drulă
USR
AtlasIntel 20–29 Oct 20232,00050.449.6

Ciolacu vs Ciucă

PollDateSample Ciolacu
PSD 		Ciucă
PNL
INSCOP 14 Feb–5 Mar 20242,00063.037.0
AtlasIntel 27–30 Jan 20232,00051.748.3

Ciolacu vs Kövesi

PollDateSample Kövesi
Ind. 		Ciolacu
PSD
AtlasIntel 20–29 Oct 20232,00058.641.4
AtlasIntel 27–30 Jan 20232,00057.842.2

Trust in politicians

PollDateSample Geoană
Ind. 		Ciolacu
PSD 		Simion
AUR 		Ciucă
PNL 		Șoșoacă
S.O.S. 		Lasconi
USR 		Kelemen
UDMR 		Cioloș
REPER 		Kövesi
Ind. 		Others
INSCOP Research 19–27 June 20241,10033.423.618.021.420.221.38.5---

Notes

  1. ↑ Cristian Diaconescu (Ind.): 2%, Cristian Terheș (PNCR): 1%
  2. ↑ Cristian Diaconescu (Ind.): 4%, Cristian Terheș (PNCR): 2%
  3. ↑ Cristian Diaconescu (Ind.): 4,5%, Cristian Terheș (PNCR: 2,0%, Ana Birchall (Ind.): 0,9%
  4. ↑ Cristian Diaconescu (IND): 7%
  5. ↑ Ludovic Orban (FD): 1%, Cozmin Gușă (IND): 1%
  6. ↑ Cristian Diaconescu (IND): 5.0
  7. ↑ In this scenario, USR, PMP, FD and REPER are supporting Kövesi as an independent candidate
  8. ↑ In this scenario, USR, PMP, FD and REPER are supporting Kövesi as an independent candidate
  9. ↑ Dan Chitic (BSR): 7%
  10. ↑ With PNL endorsement
  11. ↑ Don't know 11.1, invalid/blank vote 9.8
  12. ↑ Don't know 13.1, invalid/blank vote 11.1
  13. ↑ Don't know 13.0, invalid/blank vote 11.1

    Related Research Articles

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">National Liberal Party (Romania)</span> Romanian political party

    The National Liberal Party is a Christian democratic and socially conservative political party in Romania. Re-founded in mid January 1990, shortly after the Revolution of 1989 which culminated in the fall of communism in Romania, it claims the legacy of the major political party of the same name, active between 1875 and 1947 in the Kingdom of Romania. Based on this historical legacy, it often presents itself as the first formally constituted political party in the country and the oldest of its kind from the family of European liberal parties as well.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">Cristian Diaconescu</span> Romanian jurist and politician

    Cristian Diaconescu is a Romanian jurist and politician. He previously belonged to the National Union for the Progress of Romania (UNPR) and the Social Democratic Party (PSD), as well as to the People's Movement Party (PMP), which he led from 2021 to 2022. He sat in the Romanian Senate from 2004 to 2012, representing Constanța County from 2004 until 2008, and subsequently Bucharest. In the Adrian Năstase cabinet, he was Minister of Justice from March to December 2004; in the Emil Boc cabinet, he was Minister of Foreign Affairs between 2008 and 2009. He returned to the position in 2012, also under Boc, and continued in this capacity under Boc's successor, Mihai Răzvan Ungureanu.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 Romanian presidential election</span> Presidential elections in November 2014

    Presidential elections were held in Romania in 2014. They were the seventh presidential elections held in post-1989 Romania. In the first round of the elections on 2 November, the top two of the fourteen candidates qualified in a run-off on 16 November. These candidates were Victor Ponta, former Prime Minister and ex-leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) who won around 40% of the vote in the first round, and Klaus Iohannis, then mayor of Sibiu and leader of the Christian Liberal Alliance (ACL), who won around 30% in the first round respectively. Following large protests on how Ponta's government organized the elections in the diaspora, Klaus Iohannis staged a surprising come-back and won the run-off with 54.5%, or more than a million votes than his contender.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">Nicușor Dan</span> Romanian politician (born 1969)

    Nicușor Dan is a Romanian activist, mathematician, former member of the Chamber of Deputies of Romania as well as founder and former leader of the Romanian political party Save Romania Union (USR). He is currently serving as the Mayor of Bucharest following his successful re-election campaign in the 2024 Romanian local elections as an independent politician.

    The People's Movement Party is an extra-parliamentary national-conservative and social conservative political party in Romania.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">Save Romania Union</span> Political party in Romania

    The Save Romania Union is a liberal political party in Romania that sits on the centre to centre-right of the political spectrum. It is currently the third largest party in the Parliament of Romania with 41 deputies and 20 senators, and fifth at the local level nationwide, after the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR/RMDSZ) and the People's Movement Party (PMP), two smaller centre-right political parties in the country.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 Romanian parliamentary election</span>

    Parliamentary elections were held in Romania on 6 December 2020 to elect the 136 members of the Senate and the 330 constituent members of the Chamber of Deputies.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">2019 Romanian presidential election</span>

    Presidential elections were held in Romania on 10 November 2019, with a second round held on 24 November 2019. They were the eighth presidential elections held in post-1989 Romania. Incumbent President of Romania Klaus Iohannis, first elected in 2014, was eligible for re-election. He subsequently defeated former Prime Minister and ex-leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) Viorica Dăncilă in the second round of the election by a landslide, receiving 66% of the vote – the second-highest vote share on record in this type of elections after Ion Iliescu.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">2019 European Parliament election in Romania</span> 2019 election of members of the European parliament for Romania

    European Parliament elections were held in Romania on 26 May 2019.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">Dan Barna</span> Romanian politician

    Dan Barna is a Romanian politician and lawyer. He served as the president of the Save Romania Union (USR), and as co-president of USR-PLUS until 1 October 2021. He was elected a member of the Chamber of Deputies in 2016.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">Freedom, Unity and Solidarity Party</span> Political party in Romania

    The Party of Liberty, Unity and Solidarity was a pro-European, liberal political party established on 26 October 2018, whose president was Dacian Cioloș, former Prime Minister of Romania from 2015 until 2017, elected on 26 January 2019. The party had its origin in the Movement Romania Together (MRÎ), a project which they gave up due to the setting up delay in court. The party merged in 2021 with the Save Romania Union (USR) with which it has been in a political alliance called 2020 USR-PLUS Alliance from 2019 to 2021, then formally activating as a sole, unified party known as USR PLUS.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 European Parliament election in Romania</span>

    The 2024 European Parliament election in Romania was held on 9 June 2024. This was the fifth European Parliament election to be held in Romania since the country's accession to the European Union in 2007 and the first since Brexit.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">Cîțu Cabinet</span> 131st cabinet of Romania

    The Cîțu Cabinet was the 131st government of Romania, led by the national liberal (PNL) Prime Minister Florin Cîțu. It was removed from office after a motion of no confidence passed by the Parliament with a record of 281 votes, the largest number of votes on a motion of no confidence since the Romanian Revolution.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 Romanian parliamentary election</span>

    Parliamentary elections were held in Romania on 1 December 2024. No party won a majority in the election, which saw the incumbent National Coalition for Romania, led by the Social Democratic Party and the National Liberal Party (PNL), lose their majority in both chambers of parliament alongside significant gains by far-right parties such as the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), S.O.S. Romania, and the Party of Young People (POT). Following the elections, a pro-European grand coalition government was formed between the PSD, the PNL, and the UDMR, with the support of the national minorities. On 23 December, Ciolacu’s second cabinet was inaugurated by a slim margin, with 240 votes out of 465 in favour.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 Romanian presidential election</span>

    Presidential elections were held in Romania on 24 November 2024. A second round was due to be held on 8 December 2024 as no candidate achieved an absolute majority in the first round. However, on 6 December 2024 the Constitutional Court annulled the results of the first round, alleging that a Russian influence operation had impacted the vote. This was the ninth presidential election held in post-revolution Romania. The incumbent Klaus Iohannis, first elected in 2014 and then re-elected in 2019, must vacate the office at the end of his term, as the Romanian Constitution allows a president to be re-elected only once.

    A political crisis began on 1 September 2021 in Romania, engulfing both major coalition partners of the Cîțu Cabinet, namely the conservative-liberal National Liberal Party (PNL) and the progressive-liberal Save Romania Union (USR). The crisis also involved former prime minister Ludovic Orban (PNL), who was set to face Prime Minister Florin Cîțu (PNL) in a leadership election during the party congress on 25 September, with the latter eventually replacing the former. Orban would eventually resign from his position as President of the Chamber of Deputies, with him and his supporters subsequently splitting from the PNL, in order to form the Force of the Right (FD).

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 Romanian local elections</span>

    Local elections were held in Romania on 9 June 2024. They were the eighth post-1989 local elections in the country. The previous Romanian local elections in 2020 were won by the National Liberal Party (PNL), even though the Social Democratic Party (PSD) came in with significantly more County Council Presidents and mayors than the National Liberals.

    In preparation for the next Romanian parliamentary election, which will take place on 1 December 2024, various polling companies and organisations from Romania have already been carrying out a series of opinion polling to gauge and keep track of the voting intention among the overall electorate.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">National Coalition for Romania</span> Grand coalition in Romania

    The National Coalition for Romania, initially referred to as the Coalition for Resilience, Development and Prosperity, is a big tent grand coalition in Romania, which includes the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the National Liberal Party (PNL). In addition, this grand coalition supports the presidency of Klaus Iohannis. The CNR also included the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR/RMDSZ) until its withdrawal from the coalition in June 2023.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">United Right Alliance</span> Political party in Romania

    United Right Alliance was a centre-right electoral alliance that was formed to compete in the 2024 Romanian parliamentary election. It opposed the incumbent National Coalition for Romania (CNR) government.

    References

    1. 1 2 3 4 5 Polling institute that has traditionally overestimated AUR in polls. Exemple
    2. ↑ Alexandra Păcuraru (ADN) 0.6%
    3. ↑ Silviu Predoiu (PLAN) 0.6%
    4. ↑ Polling institute with strong ties to the PSD
    5. ↑ Polling institute with strong ties to the PSD
    6. ↑ Cătălin Drulă in January, February, April and May 2024 Elena Lasconi since June 2024
    7. ↑ "Vă prezentăm cifrele ultimului sondaj pentru Palatul Cotroceni" (in Romanian). Gazeta Civică | Cotidian Național de opinie și atitudine civică!. Archived from the original on 2021-08-04. Retrieved 2021-08-05.
    8. ↑ "Opțiuni politice de mai | INSOMAR.ORG". insomar.org (in Romanian). Retrieved 2021-05-14.
    9. ↑ "SONDAJ INSOMAR. Răsturnare de situație – pe cine vor românii la Cotroceni. Calculele care dau fiori clasei politice". Realitatea de Tulcea. 2021-02-12.[ permanent dead link ]
    10. ↑ None of the above – 15% Don't know/No answer – 41.6% Dan Barna – 1.4% Dan Barna – 1,4%
    11. ↑ Dan Barna 3.2%
    12. ↑ 44% of respondents indicated that they have not yet decided who they would vote for in the upcoming presidential elections in Romania, while 24.8% would not participate in the vote. 4.0% NR
    This page is based on this Wikipedia article
    Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
    Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.