Opinion polling for the 2024 Romanian presidential election

Last updated

In preparation for the next presidential election in Romania, which took place on November 24 (first round) and second round which would have taken place on December 8, 2024, various polling companies and organizations in Romania conducted a series of opinion polls to measure and track voting intentions of the electorate.

Contents

First round graphic representation

Opinion polling for the 2024 Romanian presidential election.svg

Second round

Georgescu vs Lasconi (annulled)

PollDateSample Georgescu
Ind. 		Lasconi
USR
IRES 17 - 20 Dec 20241,00048.029.0
AtlasIntel 28 Nov–5 Dec 20245.50546.448.6
Sociopol [1] 3–4 Dec 20241.20063.037.0
AtlasIntel 1–4 Dec 20242.11647.043.8
Curs 1 Dec 202424.62957.842.2
Sociopol [1] 27–29 Nov 20241.00060.040.0
AtlasIntel 26–28 Nov 20242.11645.347.5

First round

After the deadline for submitting candidacies to BEC (5 October 2024)

PollDateSample Georgescu
Ind. 		Lasconi
USR 		Ciolacu
PSD 		Simion
AUR 		Ciucă
PNL 		Geoană
Ind. 		Kelemen
UDMR 		Diaconescu
Ind. 		Terheș
PNCR 		Birchall
Ind. 		Orban
FD 		Others
Election (annulled first round) 24 Nov 20249.242.18622.919.219.113.98.86.34.53.11.00.50.20.5
AtlasIntel 20–22 Nov 20241.6928.117.823.716.914.36.92.96.21.00.70.80.7
Verifield for USR 20–21 Nov 20241.80310.619.024.519.08.67.93.45.10.70.6—0.6
AtlasIntel 15–20 Nov 20242.0036.215.324.315.412.17.05.93.32.14.21.52.7
INSOMAR 14–20 Nov 20241.0426.812.724.416.215.68.43.64.43.8———
Verifield for USR 8–14 Nov 20249684.917.126.318.87.38.14.76.82.8—1.12.1
INSCOP 7–12 Nov 20241.1005.414.325.319.19.113.34.14.62.10.81.00.6 [2]
BCS 7–10 Nov 20241.1575.814.327.111.917.77.65.74.92.90.51.0—
Sociopol [1] 4–8 Nov 20241.001—12.029.021.015.09.02.09.03.0———
CIRA 1–6 Nov 20241.1501.016.029.017.019.09.01.0——1.0——
Verifield for USR 1–6 Nov 20241.0644.615.725.921.28.513.22.94.40.31.21.11.0 [3]
CURS [4] 30 Oct–5 Nov1.067—12.028.017.017.09.05.05.04.02.0—1.0
Argument 18-23 Oct 20241.100—15.926.818.412.914.61.34.80.40.50.73.6
Sociopol [1] 14-18 Oct 20241.0031.013.026.020.017.010.02.09.01.0—1.0—
INSCOP 11-18 Oct 20241.106—15.024.120.78.218.13.85.11.90.91.90.3
CURS [5] 11-16 Oct 20241.006—14.026.017.015.015.02.05.02.02.02.02.0
Verifield for USR 7-9 Oct 20241.009—17.123.419.86.217.23.87.63.10.70.70.4
Sociopol [1] 7-9 Oct 20241.0042.012.026.019.017.010.02.09.02.02.01.0—

Before the deadline for submitting candidacies to BEC (5 October 2024)

PollDateSample Geoană
Ind. 		Ciolacu
PSD 		Simion
AUR 		Ciucă
PNL 		Șoșoacă
S.O.S. 		Drulă/Lasconi
USR 		Kelemen
UDMR 		Cioloș
REPER 		Kövesi
Ind. 		Others
INSOMAR-Avangarde 15–27 Sep 20241.10015.030.011.017.07.014.02.0——— [a]
CURS 10–23 Sep 20241.06716.029.011.018.07.012.0———— [b]
INSCOP 11–16 Sep 20241.10220.820.512.45.612.516.03.6——— [c]
FlashData 5–13 Sep 20241.10016.024.019.013.08.013.0———7.0
Verifield 15–30 august 20241.79317.821.914.95.912.916.31.8——8.5
Sociopol 26 Aug-3 Sep 20241,00514.026.019.010.09.014.01.0——— [d]
Verifield for USR Aug 2024—21.017.214.17.313.915.32.38.8
The Center for International Research and Analyses 24–30 Aug 20241,09914.025.013.016.011.013.03.0——5.0 [e]
CURS 6–22 Aug 20241,06715.032.014.019.05.011.0———4.0
ARA for Antena3 9–26 Jul 20241,00920.028.010.06.012.012.0———14.0
CURS 18–26 Jul 20241,06715.031.015.019.04.012.03.0———
Sociopol 9–17 Jul 20241,00215.025.019.012.09.014.01.0——— [f]
CURS 26 Jun–2 Jul 20241,06717.030.013.020.06.09.03.0——2.0
INSCOP 19–27 June 20241,10026.717.811.211.913.414.33.4——1.2
CSPS June 20241,01324.016.028.06.04.017.05.0———
INSCOP 20–25 May 20241,10023.718.213.511.512.58.65.5——6.4
AtlasIntel 5–9 April 20241,76433.6—11.8—10.710.91.46.9—
279.612.6510.611.30.76.1—
27.39.212.4—9.813.63.06.4—-
INSCOP 14 Feb–5 Mar 20242,00026.024.013.012.08.0—3.0—9.0-
INSCOP Research 16–24 Jan 20241,10026.518.913.311.414.05.93.65.1-1.3
Snap Market Research 3–8 Jan 2024998122913814— [g] 5—10 [h] 9 [i]

Opinion polls with Geoană (2023)

PollDateSample Geoană
Ind. 		Ciolacu
PSD 		Simion
AUR 		Ciucă
PNL 		Șoșoacă
S.O.S. 		Drulă
USR 		Lasconi
USR 		Orban
FD 		Kelemen
UDMR 		Cioloș
REPER 		Kövesi
Ind. 		Hellvig
Ind. 		Others
INSCOP 20–27 Nov 20231,10026.220.814.012.114.44.2——2.43.9——1.9
INSCOP 23 Oct–2 Nov 20231,10027.721.8 [j] 18.9—10.5—12.1—3.14.3———
AtlasIntel 20–29 Oct 20232,00020.410.37.70.713.36.92.33.43.02.410.96.413.4
INSCOP 15–22 Sep 20231,55025.319.518.711.210.15.6——2.74.1——3.4
AtlasIntel 27–30 Jan 20232,00022.6—10.64.96.18.0—3.84.42.016.40.420.9 [k]
14.66.29.74.65.54.5—5.12.95.116.90.524.2 [l]
ElectionNov 2019——22.26—37.82—15.02—3.87————

Opinion polls without Geoană (2023)

PollDateSample Ciucă
PNL 		Ciolacu
PSD 		Drulă
USR 		Kelemen
UDMR 		Kövesi
Ind. 		Simion
AUR 		Șoșoacă
S.O.S. 		Cioloș
REPER 		Orban
FD 		Hellvig
Ind. 		Others
INSCOP 20–27 Nov 20231,10014.127.47.12.7—18.019.16.7——4.9
AtlasIntel 27–30 Jan 20232,0008.013.37.42.115.710.45.95.35.02.924.1 [m]
ElectionNov 2019—37.8222.2615.023.87———————

Opinion polls with potential candidates (before 2023)

PollDateSample Cîțu

PNL

Orban

PNL

Ciolacu

PSD

Barna

USR PLUS

Cioloș

USR PLUS

Drulă

USR PLUS

Diaconescu

PMP

Kelemen

UDMR

Simion

AUR

Șoșoacă

NR/S.O.S.

Geoană

Ind.

Dragnea

PAINE/ApP

Others
Gazeta Civică [6] 15–31 Jul 20211,11211.0—4.0——22.0—5.0——33.0—6.0
INSOMAR [7] 1–8 May 20211,030—12.0316.122.0013.4—8.3—14.24.0—6.63.37
INSOMAR [8] 8–11 Feb 20211,0303.011.423.021.012.6——3.017.0——0.08.96
ElectionNov 201937.8222.2615.025.723.870.34——14.97

The first round among Romanian citizens from the Republic of Moldova

PollDateSample Geoană
Ind. 		Ciolacu
PSD 		Simion
AUR 		Ciucă
PNL 		Șoșoacă
S.O.S. 		Drulă
USR 		Kelemen
UDMR 		Cioloș
REPER 		Piedone
PUSL 		Others/
N/A
iDATA 22 – 26 Apr 20241,00615.03.12.43.44.80.71.05.56.158.0 [9]
34.67.15.57.811.11.6 [10] 2.312.714.1—
CBS-Research 6 – 13 Apr 20241,00814.14.71.02.44.10.9———72.8 [11]
51.917.33.715.014.03.3————

Hypothetical second round

Geoană vs Ciolacu

PollDateSample Geoană
Ind. 		Ciolacu
PSD
INSCOP 19 - 27 June 20241,10063.736.3
INSCOP 14 Feb–5 Mar 20242,00061.039.0
AtlasIntel 20–29 Oct 20232,00064.935.1

Geoană vs Simion

PollDateSample Geoană
Ind. 		Simion
AUR
INSCOP 14 Feb–5 Mar 20242,00075.025.0
AtlasIntel 20–29 Oct 20232,00071.828.2
INSCOP 15–22 Sep 20231,55063.536.5
AtlasIntel 27–30 Jan 20232,00069.530.5

Geoană vs Ciucă

PollDateSample Geoană
Ind. 		Ciucă
PNL
INSCOP 19–27 June 20241,10063.936.1
AtlasIntel 27–30 Jan 20232,00076.223.8

Geoană vs Kövesi

PollDateSample Geoană
Ind. 		Kövesi
Ind.
INSCOP 14 Feb–5 Mar 20242,00066.034.0
AtlasIntel 20–29 Oct 20232,00061.238.8
AtlasIntel 27–30 Jan 20232,00053.146.9

Geoană vs Lasconi

PollDateSample Geoană
Ind. 		Lasconi
USR
INSCOP 19 - 27 June 20241,20066.233.8

Ciolacu vs Simion

PollDateSample Ciolacu
PSD 		Simion
AUR
AtlasIntel 20–29 Oct 20232,00069.530.5
INSCOP 15–22 Sep 20231,55058.841.2
AtlasIntel 27–30 Jan 20232,00054.145.9

Ciolacu vs Lasconi

PollDateSample Ciolacu
PSD 		Lasconi
USR
INSCOP 19–27 June 20242,00058.042.0

Ciolacu vs Drulă

PollDateSample Ciolacu
PSD 		Drulă
USR
AtlasIntel 20–29 Oct 20232,00050.449.6

Ciolacu vs Ciucă

PollDateSample Ciolacu
PSD 		Ciucă
PNL
INSCOP 14 Feb–5 Mar 20242,00063.037.0
AtlasIntel 27–30 Jan 20232,00051.748.3

Ciolacu vs Kövesi

PollDateSample Kövesi
Ind. 		Ciolacu
PSD
AtlasIntel 20–29 Oct 20232,00058.641.4
AtlasIntel 27–30 Jan 20232,00057.842.2

Trust in politicians

PollDateSample Geoană
Ind. 		Ciolacu
PSD 		Simion
AUR 		Ciucă
PNL 		Șoșoacă
S.O.S. 		Lasconi
USR 		Kelemen
UDMR 		Cioloș
REPER 		Kövesi
Ind. 		Others
INSCOP Research 19–27 June 20241,10033.423.618.021.420.221.38.5---

Notes

  1. ↑ Cristian Diaconescu (Ind.): 2%, Cristian Terheș (PNCR): 1%
  2. ↑ Cristian Diaconescu (Ind.): 4%, Cristian Terheș (PNCR): 2%
  3. ↑ Cristian Diaconescu (Ind.): 4,5%, Cristian Terheș (PNCR: 2,0%, Ana Birchall (Ind.): 0,9%
  4. ↑ Cristian Diaconescu (IND): 7%
  5. ↑ Ludovic Orban (FD): 1%, Cozmin Gușă (IND): 1%
  6. ↑ Cristian Diaconescu (IND): 5.0
  7. ↑ In this scenario, USR, PMP, FD and REPER are supporting Kövesi as an independent candidate
  8. ↑ In this scenario, USR, PMP, FD and REPER are supporting Kövesi as an independent candidate
  9. ↑ Dan Chitic (BSR): 7%
  10. ↑ With PNL endorsement
  11. ↑ Don't know 11.1, invalid/blank vote 9.8
  12. ↑ Don't know 13.1, invalid/blank vote 11.1
  13. ↑ Don't know 13.0, invalid/blank vote 11.1

    References

    1. 1 2 3 4 5 Polling institute that has traditionally overestimated AUR in polls. Exemple
    2. ↑ Alexandra Păcuraru (ADN) 0.6%
    3. ↑ Silviu Predoiu (PLAN) 0.6%
    4. ↑ Polling institute with strong ties to the PSD
    5. ↑ Polling institute with strong ties to the PSD
    6. ↑ "Vă prezentăm cifrele ultimului sondaj pentru Palatul Cotroceni" (in Romanian). Gazeta Civică | Cotidian Național de opinie și atitudine civică!. Archived from the original on 2021-08-04. Retrieved 2021-08-05.
    7. ↑ "Opțiuni politice de mai | INSOMAR.ORG". insomar.org (in Romanian). Retrieved 2021-05-14.
    8. ↑ "SONDAJ INSOMAR. Răsturnare de situație – pe cine vor românii la Cotroceni. Calculele care dau fiori clasei politice". Realitatea de Tulcea. 2021-02-12.[ permanent dead link ]
    9. ↑ None of the above – 15% Don't know/No answer – 41.6% Dan Barna – 1.4% Dan Barna – 1,4%
    10. ↑ Dan Barna 3.2%
    11. ↑ 44% of respondents indicated that they have not yet decided who they would vote for in the upcoming presidential elections in Romania, while 24.8% would not participate in the vote. 4.0% NR
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