Opinion polling for the 2024 Queensland state election

Last updated

In the lead-up to the 2024 Queensland state election, a number of polling companies will conduct regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls will collect data on parties' primary vote, and will contain an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They will also ask questions about the electorates' views on major party leaders.

Contents

Graphical summary

Voting intention

Legislative Assembly polling
DateFirmSamplePrimary vote 2pp vote
ALPLNPGRNONKAPOTHALPLNP
February – May 2024RedBridge [1] 88028%47%————43%57%
February – May 2024Resolve Strategic [2] [3] 94726%43%13%8%1%9%44.5%55.5%
9–17 April 2024 YouGov [4] 1,09227%44%15%10%1%3%44%56%
16 March 2024The local government elections are held, LNP wins Ipswich West by-election and Labor holds its seat in Inala.
7–13 March 2024 Newspoll [5] 1,03730%42%13%8%——46%54%
13 February 2024uComms [6] [7] 1,74334.2%37.3%12.2%7.7%3.9%4.7%50%50%
26 December 2023uComms [8] 1,91134.4%36.2%————49%51%
15 December 2023 Steven Miles is elected Leader of Queensland Labor; sworn in as Premier of Queensland.
13 December 2023uComms [9] 1,14334%38.2%11.9%7.8%3.3%4.8%48%52%
10 December 2023Annastacia Palaszczuk announces her intention to resign as Leader of Queensland Labor and Premier of Queensland.
September – December 2023Resolve Strategic [10] [11] 94033%37%12%8%—10%49.5%50.5%
4–10 October 2023YouGov [12] 1,01333%41%13%8%2%3%48%52%
26 August – 6 September 2023RedBridge [13] [14] [15] [16] 2,01226%41%14%9%—10%45%55%
May – August 2023Resolve Strategic [17] 94332%38%11%8%1%10% [lower-alpha 1] 48%52%
29 June – 2 July 2023Freshwater Strategy [18] 1,06534%40%11%——15%49%51%
17 January – 17 April 2023Resolve Strategic [19] 94335%33%12%7%1%11% [lower-alpha 2] 52.5%47.5%
30 March – 5 April 2023YouGov [20] 1,01533%39%13%10%2%—49%51%
1–8 December 2022YouGov [21] ~1,00034%38%13%11%—4%50%50%
21 August – 4 December 2022Resolve Strategic [22] 92437%35%11%6%1%10% [lower-alpha 3] 53.2%46.8%
23–30 June 2022YouGov [23] ~1,00034%38%14%10%1%3%50%50%
18–23 February 2022YouGov [24] ~1,00039%38%10%8%1%4%52%48%
31 October 2020 election39.6%35.9%9.5%7.1%2.5%5.7%53.2%46.8%

Some polls do not publish a two-party-preferred result. In these cases, the result has been manually calculated from preference flows at the 2020 election.

Preferred Premier and satisfaction

Preferred Premier

DatePolling firmSamplePreferred Premier
Miles Crisafulli Don't know
February – May 2024Resolve Strategic [2] 94728%39%33%
9–17 Apr 2024YouGov [25] 1,09227%40%33%
7–13 March 2024Newspoll [5] 1,03737%43%20%
13 February 2024uComms [6] [7] 1,74349%51%—
26 December 2023uComms [8] 1,91147.8%52.2%—
DatePolling firmSamplePreferred Premier
Palaszczuk Crisafulli Don't know
September – December 2023Resolve Strategic [10] [11] 94034%39%27%
10 Nov 2023SEC Newgate [26] 60030%34%36%
4–10 Oct 2023YouGov [12] 1,01335%37%28%
December 2023Resolve Strategic [10] [11] 94034%39%27%
May – August 2023Resolve Strategic [17] 94336%37%27%
29 June – 2 July 2023 AFR /Freshwater Strategy [18] 1,06544%45%11%
17 Jan – 17 Apr 2023Resolve Strategic [19] 94339%31%31%
30 Mar – 5 Apr 2023YouGov [20] 1,01531%29%40%
1–8 Dec 2022YouGov [21] ~1,00039%28%33%
21 Aug – 4 Dec 2022Resolve Strategic [22] 92442%30%28%
23–30 Jun 2022YouGov [23] ~1,00041%28%31%

Satisfaction ratings

DatePolling firmSample Miles Crisafulli
SatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNet
February – May 2024RedBridge [1] 880———–11%———+14%
February – May 2024Resolve Strategic [2] 947———–15%———+14%
9–17 Apr 2024YouGov [25] 1,09225%47%28%–22%40%26%34%+14%
7–13 March 2024Newspoll [5] 1,03738%49%13%-11%47%33%20%+14%
13 February 2024uComms [6] [7] 1,74344.2%25.2%25.2%+19%41.7%18.7%31.2%+23%
13 December 2023uComms [9] 1,14338.4%25.9%35.6%+12.5%————
DatePolling firmSample Palaszczuk Crisafulli
SatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNet
September – December 2023Resolve Strategic [10] [11] 940———–17%———+9%
4–10 Oct 2023YouGov [12] 1,01332%52%16%–20%37%26%37%+11%
September – December 2023Resolve Strategic [10] [11] 940———–17%———+9%
May – August 2023Resolve Strategic [17] 943———–15%———+7%
29 June – 2 July 2023 AFR /Freshwater Strategy [18] 1,06539%47%14%–8%————
1–8 Dec 2022YouGov [21] ~1,00040%41%19%–1%31%27%42%+4%
23–30 Jun 2022YouGov [23] ~1,00045%30%16%+15%31%23%46%+8%
18–23 Feb 2022YouGov [24] ~1,00050%36%14%+14%————

Notes

  1. ↑ Independents: 8%, Other parties: 2%
  2. ↑ Independents: 10%, Other parties: 1%
  3. ↑ Independents: 7%, Other parties: 3%

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References

  1. 1 2 "Queensland Labor government facing election wipe-out". www.9news.com.au. 2024-06-05. Retrieved 2024-06-05.
  2. 1 2 3 Dennien, Matt (21 May 2024). "Crisafulli's LNP climbs higher against Miles' Labor leadership". Brisbane Times .
  3. ↑ Bonham, Kevin. "#ResolvePM Qld (state) ALP 26 LNP 43 Grn 13 ON 8 IND 8 KAP 1 other 1 (IMO IND too high others too low but that matters little). My 2PP estimate 55.5-44.5 to LNP. Sample over last 3 months. #qldpol". X.
  4. ↑ Johnson, Hayden; Burns, Christopher (26 April 2024). "YouGov poll: Labor on track to lose 21 seats at Queensland state election". Courier Mail .
  5. 1 2 3 Lynch, Lydia (15 March 2024). "Newspoll: Queensland's Liberal National Party in box seat for majority government". The Australian .
  6. 1 2 3 Johnson, Hayden (23 February 2024). "Polling shock: Battlelines drawn as explosive new poll delivers boilover no one saw coming". Courier Mail .
  7. 1 2 3 "uComms: 50-50 in Queensland – The Poll Bludger". www.pollbludger.net. Retrieved 2024-02-23.
  8. 1 2 McCormack, Madura (26 December 2023). "UComms poll: Steven Miles's ascension makes little difference to Labor fortunes". Courier Mail .
  9. 1 2 Smee, Ben (21 December 2023). "Poll bombshell: Result that changes everything in battle for Premier". Guardian Australia .
  10. 1 2 3 4 5 Dennien, Matt (5 December 2023). "Support for Labor steadies, despite dip in Palaszczuk's popularity". Brisbane Times .
  11. 1 2 3 4 5 "Resolve Strategic: LNP 37, Labor 33, Greens 12 in Queensland – The Poll Bludger". www.pollbludger.net. Retrieved 2023-12-06.
  12. 1 2 3 Johnson, Hayden (26 October 2023). "Poll bombshell: Result that changes everything in battle for Premier". Courier Mail .
  13. ↑ Bennett, Stephanie (9 September 2023). "New Qld poll shows 'strong mood' to dump Labor". Courier Mail .
  14. ↑ Tapper, Michelle; Iorio, Kelsie (9 September 2023). "LNP gains more ground over Labor in polls, surges ahead in primary vote". ABC News (Australia) .
  15. ↑ "Weekend miscellany: Voice and Queensland polls, Liberal Senate preselections (open thread) – The Poll Bludger". www.pollbludger.net. Retrieved 2023-09-09.
  16. ↑ "Queensland vote intention" (PDF). RedBridge Group. Retrieved 2023-09-09.
  17. 1 2 3 Dennien, Matt (17 August 2023). "LNP ahead in the polls as voters consider Crisafulli over Palaszczuk". Brisbane Times .
  18. 1 2 3 Ludlow, Mark (5 July 2023). "Palaszczuk on track to lose in 2024: poll". Australian Financial Review . Retrieved 5 July 2023.
  19. 1 2 Dennien, Matt (19 April 2023). "Crashing the parties: Voters mark leaders down but Palaszczuk keeps her edge". Brisbane Times .
  20. 1 2 McKay, Jack (21 April 2023). "Annastacia Palaszczuk's standing as preferred premier sinks to lowest level since she took up top job". The Courier-Mail. Retrieved 22 April 2023.
  21. 1 2 3 "YouGov poll reveals LNP and Labor neck and neck". The Courier Mail. 11 December 2022.
  22. 1 2 "Palaszczuk Labor still favoured by voters at political halfway mark". Brisbane Times. 12 December 2022.
  23. 1 2 3 "Palaszczuk shockwaves: Labor's lead obliterated, shock result if election held today". The Courier Mail. 4 July 2022.
  24. 1 2 "LNP closing the gap on Labor's lead in the polls, Annastacia Palaszczuk viewed less favourably". The Courier Mail. 25 February 2022.
  25. 1 2 McCormack, Madura (26 April 2024). "YouGov poll: Steven Miles more unpopular than Campbell Newman before 2014 election defeat". Courier Mail .
  26. ↑ Pierce, Jeremy; Mulvaney, Mikaela (10 November 2023). "Shock poll result for Queensland government". Courier Mail .
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