2024 Uruguayan general election

Last updated

2024 Uruguayan general election
Flag of Uruguay.svg
←  2019
Presidential election
27 October 2024
24 November 2024 (potential second round)
  Yamandu Orsi perfil (cropped).png Alvaro Delgado.png Andres Ojeda.png
Nominee Yamandú Orsi Álvaro Delgado Andrés Ojeda
Party MPP National Party Colorado Party
Alliance Broad Front Coalición Multicolor Coalición Multicolor
Running mate Carolina Cosse Valeria Ripoll Robert Silva
President before election

Luis Lacalle Pou
National Party

Elected President

TBD

General elections will be held in Uruguay on 27 October 2024. [1] If no presidential candidate receives a majority in the first round of voting, a runoff will take place on Sunday 24 November 2024.

Contents

Background

Incumbent President Luis Lacalle Pou, who won the 2019 elections, cannot run again as the constitution bars a president from immediate re-election. As a result, the governing National Party has to nominate a new candidate.

Electoral system

The President of Uruguay is elected using the two-round system, with a run-off held if no candidate receives 50% of the vote in the first round. The 30 members of the Senate are elected by proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency. The vice president, elected on the same ballot as the president, becomes president of the Senate, with his vote being determinant in case of tie. [2] The 99 members of the Chamber of Representatives are elected by proportional representation in 19 multi-member constituencies based on the 19 departments. Seats are allocated using the highest averages method. [3]

The elections are held using the double simultaneous vote method, whereby voters cast a single vote for the party of their choice for all three seats of Presidency, Senate and Chamber of Representatives.

Presidential candidates

Presidential primaries were held on 30 June 2024 to nominate the presidential candidate for every political party.

Opinion polls

Party polling

Opinion polls Uruguay 2024.svg
Local regression of polls conducted
Polling firmFieldwork dateSample size FA PN PC CA PERI PG PI OthersUnd.Blank/Abs.Lead
MPC Consultores [4] 10–14 Jul 20241,00033%23%9%7%———3%22%3%10%
Presidential primaries 30 Jun 2024–42.4%33.4%10.5%1.8%0.1%—0.3%1.4%—0.6%9.0%
Nómade [5] 13–22 Jun 20241,12443.6%31.5%8.1%2.2%———4.0%6.0%4.6%12.1%
Equipos Consultores [6] 29 May–13 Jun 20241,41344%26%9%3%——1%1%12%4%18%
Factum [7] 1–11 Jun 202490043%30%12%5%——3%3% [lower-alpha 1] —4%13%
Opción Consultores [8] 15–31 May 20241,42042%27%7%4%1%—1%1%10%6%15%
Cifra [9] 16–29 May 20241,50147%32%7%3%——1%10%15%
UPC [10] 24–28 May 202450047%29%7%1%1%——3%6%6%18%
MPC Consultores [11] 20–25 May 202490033%23%8%8%1%—1%3% [lower-alpha 2] 20%4%10%
Factum [12] 19–30 Apr 202490043%30%10%6%——2%4% [lower-alpha 3] —5%13%
Nómade [13] 25–29 Apr 20241,07641.5%32.3%4.2%3.1%1.4%——2.7%14.3%0.5%9.2%
Equipos Consultores [14] 11–28 Apr 20241,40243%29%7%3%———2%12%4%14%
UPC [15] 19–23 Apr 202450045%29%7%2%1%—1%2%6%7%16%
Cifra [16] 11–22 Apr 20241,00045%32%7%3%——1%12%13%
Nómade [17] 10–14 Apr 20241,04246.5%32.9%4.7%2.4%——0.8%6.0%6.6%—13.6%
Opción Consultores [18] 1–10 Apr 20241,23143%28%8%3%——1%2%9%6%15%
MPC Consultores [19] 18–23 Mar 202490034%23%7%9%1%—1%3% [lower-alpha 2] 19%3%11%
Cifra [20] 7–20 Mar 20241,19846%32%7%3%——1%11%14%
Factum [21] 20 Feb–2 Mar 202490043%29%8%7%——3%6%—4%14%
Opción Consultores [22] 14–28 Feb 202480041%31%6%3%1%—1%1%10%7%10%
Equipos Consultores [23] 15–27 Feb 20241,40042%27%7%4%———2% [lower-alpha 1] 13%5%15%
Cifra [24] 1–17 Feb 20241,00147%31%6%2%—2% [lower-alpha 4] 1%11%16%
MPC Consultores [25] 29 Jan–2 Feb 202496034%22%6%10%1%—2%3% [lower-alpha 2] 19%3%12%
Nómade [26] 22 Jan–2 Feb 202483940.6%29.7%4.2%2.3%1.3%——3.3% [lower-alpha 5] 17.8%0.8%10.9%
MPC Consultores [27] 15–20 Dec 202390033%20%7%8%———4%24%4%13%
Factum [28] 17–30 Nov 202390042%26%9%7%——3%5%5%3%16%
Equipos Consultores [29] 16–29 Nov 20231,20445%29%7%2%———2%12%3%16%
Opción Consultores [30] 4–20 Nov 202380044%30%6%3%1%—3%—7%6%14%
UPC [31] [32] 10–14 Nov 202350045%27%5%3%1%2% [lower-alpha 4] 2%7%8%18%
Nómade [33] 6–11 Nov 202397541.6%23.0%4.3%3.7%——1.1%1.8%23.3%1.2%18.6%
Cifra [34] 17 Oct–3 Nov 20231,00244%31%6%2%—1% [lower-alpha 4] 1%15%13%
Equipos Consultores [35] 5–18 Oct 20231,20440%29%4%2%1%——1%17%6%11%
UPC [36] 15–19 Sep 202340045%29%6%3%0%1%1%2%6%7%16%
Factum [37] 21 Aug–6 Sep 202390041%28%7%8%——3%3%8%2%13%
Cifra [38] 17–31 Aug 20231,00042%30%4%2%——1%21%12%
Equipos Consultores [39] 10–23 Aug 20231,20443%26%7%3%1%—1%1% [lower-alpha 1] 15%3%17%
Nómade [40] 19–23 Jul 202390240.6%25.9%3.6%3.9%——1.1%0.9%22.3%1.7%14.7%
Cifra [41] 15 Jun–2 Jul 20231,00944%27%6%2%—2% [lower-alpha 4] 1%18%17%
Factum [42] 21–28 Jun 202390040%26%9%7%——4%4%7%3%14%
Equipos Consultores [43] 2–16 Jun 20231,20743%28%7%2%1%—1%1%12%5%15%
UPC [44] 2–6 Jun 202340045%29%5%4%——1%3%7%6%16%
Opción Consultores [45] 15–22 May 202384942%30%4%4%1%—1%1%11%6%12%
Factum [46] 24 Apr–11 May 202390041%23%8%11%——4%3%7%3%18%
Cifra [47] 20 Apr–3 May 202398741%30%3%4%—2% [lower-alpha 4] 1%19%11%
Equipos Consultores [48] 11–24 Apr 20231,20442%28%5%2%——1%—15%7%14%
Nómade [49] 3–17 Apr 202380343.7%29.0%4.3%5.3%——2.1%0.8%12.5%2.3%14.7%
Latinobarómetro [50] 2–28 Mar 20231,20034.9%24.9%2.6%0.7%0.2%0.1%0.2%1.7%18.4%16.3%10%
Cifra [51] 15–27 Feb 20231,00743%30%3%2%—2% [lower-alpha 4] 1%19%13%
Factum [52] 11–20 Feb 20231,00041%26%6%9%——4%4%7%3%15%
Equipos Consultores [53] Feb 2023–43%24%9%3%—1% [lower-alpha 4] 1%1%n/an/a19%
Nómade [54] 3–17 Jan 202382843.1%27.8%4.9%6.5%0.6%0.6%0.8%0.3% [lower-alpha 6] 14.1%1.3%15.3%
Equipos Consultores [55] Dec 2022–44%23%6%4%1%——1%16%5%21%
Opción Consultores [56] 2–10 Nov 2022–40%28%6%5%1%—1%1%12%6%12%
Cifra [57] 20–31 Oct 202281043%31%4%2%—1% [lower-alpha 4] 1%18%12%
Factum [58] 4–16 Oct 202280041%27%8%8%——3%3%7%3%14%
Equipos Consultores [59] 24 Jul–8 Oct 20221,90038%28%5%3%1%—1%2%20%5%10%
Factum [60] 3–13 Jun 202290039%28%8%8%——3%3%7%4%11%
Equipos Consultores [61] 23 Apr–7 May 20221,19535%25%5%2%———1%25%7%10%
Factum [62] 6–15 Nov 202190039%30%8%9%—1%2%2%7%2%9%
Equipos Consultores [63] Jul–Sep 20211,50035%30%4%3%——1%1%19%7%5%
Opción Consultores [64] 13–20 May 202182434%33%5%5%1%—1%2%11%8%1%
2019 election, 1st round 27 October 2019–39.0%28.6%12.3%11.0%1.4%1.1%1.0%1.9%—3.6%10.4%

Party polling with hypothetical presidential candidates

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		 FA PN PC CA PERI PI Lead
Orsi Cosse Delgado Raffo
Equipos Consultores [65] 15–27 Feb 20241,40044%—26%—5%9%—2%18%
45%——22%8%10%—3%23%
—37%30%—6%10%—2%7%
—37%—21%10%11%—5%16%
Opción Consultores [66] 14–28 Feb 202480040%—33%—4%5%1%3%7%
—39%35%—6%5%1%3%4%
Equipos Consultores [67] 16–29 Nov 20231,20447%—29%—5%7%—3%18%
46%——24%8%8%—4%22%
—42%31%—7%7%—4%11%
—42%—24%10%7%—5%18%
Opción Consultores [68] 4–20 Nov 202380045%—27%—8%6%1%4%18%
—39%31%—6%6%1%6%8%
Equipos Consultores [69] 2–16 Jun 20231,20746%—26%—11%5%—4%20%
46%——20%13%7%—4%26%
—39%25%—13%6%—6%14%
—41%—21%16%7%—5%20%
Opción Consultores [70] 23 May–1 Jun 202280040%—22%—12%8%1%3%18%
—39%23%—13%9%2%3%16%

Presidential polling with hypothetical candidates

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		 FA PN PC CA OtherUnd.Blank/
Abs.
Orsi Cosse Bergara Other FA Delgado Raffo Argimón Other PN Bordaberry Other PC Manini Other CA
Presidential primaries 30 Jun 2024–25.1%15.9%—1.3%24.9%6.4%—2.1%—10.5% [lower-alpha 7] 1.8%—1.8%—0.6%
Cifra [71] 1–17 Feb 20241,00124%11%1%2%18%6%—2% [lower-alpha 8] —1% [lower-alpha 9] 2%—2% [lower-alpha 10] 30%—
Cifra [72] 17 Oct–3 Nov 20231,00220%9%1%5%12%4%1%4% [lower-alpha 11] —1% [lower-alpha 9] 3%—1% [lower-alpha 10] 38%—
Cifra [73] 17–31 Aug 20231,00023%8%1%5%12%4%1%3%2%—3%—1% [lower-alpha 10] 37%—
Cifra [74] 15 Jun–2 Jul 20231,00920%12%1%7%10%5%1%3%3%—2%—1% [lower-alpha 10] 35%—
Cifra [75] 20 Apr–3 May 202398722%10%1%4%13%4%1%3%2%—4%—2% [lower-alpha 10] 34%—
Nómade [49] 3–17 Apr 202380317.2%11.2%0.7%0.7% [lower-alpha 12] 5.7%0.6%—5.3% [lower-alpha 13] 0.9%—4.0%—4.5%45.9%3.3%
Cifra [76] 4–14 Aug 202270417.5%8.9%—9.9%9.6%2.7%1.3%7.7% [lower-alpha 14] 3.0%—2.8%—2.8% [lower-alpha 10] 33.8%—
Opción Consultores [70] 23 May–1 Jun 20228009%6% [lower-alpha 15] 8%5% [lower-alpha 16] 1%3%2%2%3%1%1% [lower-alpha 10] 62%—

Second round

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		 FA PN Und.Blank/
Abs.		Lead
Orsi Cosse Delgado Raffo
Cifra [77] 16–28 May 20241,50350%—39%—11%—11%
—45%45%—10%—Tie
MPC Consultores [78] 10–14 Jul 20241,00036%—39%—20%5%3%
MPC Consultores [79] 20–25 May 202490043–48% [lower-alpha 17] 47–52% [lower-alpha 18] —3–5%2%
Nómade [80] 10–14 Apr 20241,04253.4%—46.6%———7%
—48.7%51.3%———17%
Equipos Consultores [81] 15–27 Feb 20241,40048%—41%—7%4%7%
52%——35%8%5%17%
—42%44%—8%6%2%
—42%—39%9%10%3%
Notes
  1. 1 2 3 1% for Popular Unity
  2. 1 2 3 1% for Constitutional Environmentalist Party and 1% for Sovereign Identity Party
  3. ↑ 2% for Popular Unity
  4. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Unspecified or other Multicolor parties
  5. ↑ 1.1% for Constitutional Environmentalist Party
  6. ↑ 0.3% for Green Animalist Party
  7. ↑ 4.1% for Andrés Ojeda Spitz
  8. ↑ 1% for Jorge Gandini and 1% for Juan Sartori
  9. 1 2 1% for Robert Silva
  10. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 A different Multicolor candidate
  11. ↑ 1% for Jorge Gandini
  12. ↑ 0.7% for Óscar Andrade
  13. ↑ 5.3% of respondents named incumbent president Luis Lacalle Pou, who is ineligible for re-election
  14. ↑ 7.7% of respondents named incumbent president Luis Lacalle Pou, who is ineligible for re-election
  15. ↑ included with other FA
  16. ↑ included with other FN
  17. ↑ Generic FA candidate
  18. ↑ Generic Multicolor candidate

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References

  1. ↑ "Global elections calendar". NDI.
  2. ↑ Electoral system IPU
  3. ↑ Electoral system IPU
  4. ↑ "INVESTIGACIÓN NACIONAL MPC JULIO 2024".
  5. ↑ "Encuesta de Nómade: Orsi crece en interna del FA entre los que probablemente vayan a votar" (in Spanish).
  6. ↑ "Simpatía política por partido en junio: FA 44%, Partidos de la coalición 39%" (in Spanish).
  7. ↑ "Estimación de voto por partido – 3º Bimestre 2024".
  8. ↑ "Preferencias Partidarias – Mayo 2024".
  9. ↑ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
  10. ↑ "En las internas, Yamandú Orsi recoge 55% de las adhesiones del FA y Carolina Cosse 41%; Álvaro Delgado reúne tres de cada cuatro votos del Partido Nacional" (in Spanish).
  11. ↑ "Investigación Nacional MPC Mayo 2024".
  12. ↑ "Estimación de voto por partido – 2º Bimestre 2024".
  13. ↑ "Intención de voto: crecen los apoyos partidarios, y la coalición supera al Frente Amplio" (in Spanish).
  14. ↑ "SIMPATÍA POLÍTICA POR PARTIDO: FA 42%, PN 27%, PC 7%, CA 4%" (in Spanish).
  15. ↑ "02/05/2024 – FA tiene 45% de intención de voto y partidos de la coalición suman 39%, según la Usina de Percepción Ciudadana" (in Spanish).
  16. ↑ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
  17. ↑ "Uruguay: una encuesta proyecta un triunfo por 7 puntos de la oposición en segunda vuelta" (in Spanish).
  18. ↑ "Preferencias Partidarias – Febrero 2024".
  19. ↑ "Investigación Nacional MPC Abril 2024".
  20. ↑ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
  21. ↑ "Estimación de Voto por Partido – 1º Bimestre 2024".
  22. ↑ "Preferencias Partidarias – Febrero 2024".
  23. ↑ "SIMPATÍA POLÍTICA POR PARTIDO: FA 42%, PN 27%, PC 7%, CA 4%" (in Spanish).
  24. ↑ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
  25. ↑ "Investigación Nacional MPC Febrero 2024".
  26. ↑ "Se fortalecen las precandidaturas con mayor adhesión" (in Spanish).
  27. ↑ "Investigación Nacional MPC Diciembre 2023".
  28. ↑ "Intención de voto por partido – 6º Bimestre 2023".
  29. ↑ "SIMPATÍA POLÍTICA POR PARTIDO: FA 45%, PN 29%, PC 7%, CA 2%" (in Spanish).
  30. ↑ "¿Qué votarían los uruguayos si las elecciones fueran hoy? Esto dice la última encuesta de Opción". El País.
  31. ↑ "Según Usina de Percepción Ciudadana el Frente Amplio llega a 45% de intención de voto y la coalición suma 37%" (in Spanish).
  32. ↑ "Elecciones 2024: Frente Amplio lidera preferencias con el 45 % según encuesta de la Usina de Percepción Ciudadana" (in Spanish).
  33. ↑ "El 17,5% de quienes fueron encuestados no sabe a qué partido votaría" (in Spanish).
  34. ↑ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
  35. ↑ "¿QUÉ VOTARÍAN LOS URUGUAYOS SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY?" (in Spanish).
  36. ↑ "45% votaría al Frente Amplio y 29% al Partido Nacional en las elecciones de 2024, según la Usina de Percepción Ciudadana" (in Spanish).
  37. ↑ "Intención de voto por partido – 4º Bimestre 2023" (in Spanish).
  38. ↑ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
  39. ↑ "¿Qué votarían los uruguayos si las elecciones fueran hoy? Esto revela una nueva encuesta de Equipos" (in Spanish).
  40. ↑ "Intención de voto: el Frente Amplio mantiene ventaja sobre la coalición de gobierno" (in Spanish).
  41. ↑ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
  42. ↑ "Intención de voto por partido – 3er Bimestre 2023" (in Spanish).
  43. ↑ "¿A qué partido votarían los uruguayos si las elecciones fueran hoy? Esto concluyó una nueva encuesta de Equipos" (in Spanish).
  44. ↑ "Elecciones 2024: el 45% votaría al Frente Amplio y el 29% al Partido Nacional" (in Spanish).
  45. ↑ "¿A qué partido votarían los uruguayos si las elecciones fueran este domingo?". El Observador.
  46. ↑ "Intención de voto por partido – 2º Bimestre" (in Spanish).
  47. ↑ "Intención de voto: "empate técnico" entre coalición y Frente Amplio, según la última encuesta de Cifra" (in Spanish).
  48. ↑ "SIMPATÍA POLÍTICA POR PARTIDO: FA 42%, PN 28%, PC 5%, CA 2%, PI 1%" (in Spanish).
  49. 1 2 "La intención de voto al Frente Amplio supera a la de la coalición" (in Spanish).
  50. ↑ "Latinobarómetro 2023. Uruguay. Estudio nº LAT-2023 v1_0" (in Spanish).
  51. ↑ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
  52. ↑ "La coalición de gobierno suma 45% de intención de voto y el Frente Amplio 41%, según la última encuesta de Factum" (in Spanish).
  53. ↑ "Encuesta Equipos: FA 43%, Partido Nacional 24%, Partido Colorado 9%, Cabildo Abierto 3%" (in Spanish).
  54. ↑ "Yamandú Orsi y Álvaro Delgado lideran la intención de voto dentro de sus partidos" (in Spanish).
  55. ↑ "Encuesta de Equipos coloca al FA a la cabeza de la preferencia electoral, con 44 %" (in Spanish).
  56. ↑ "Opción: el FA reúne 40% de la intención de voto, mientras que los blancos llegan a 28%". Montevideo Portal.
  57. ↑ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
  58. ↑ "Intención de voto por partido – Octubre 2022" (in Spanish).
  59. ↑ "Encuesta de Equipos Consultores: FA 38%, PN 28%, PC 5%, CA 3%, 1% PI y 1% PERI" (in Spanish).
  60. ↑ "Intención de voto: FA 39%; PN 28%; CA y PC 8% cada uno" (in Spanish).
  61. ↑ "¿Qué votarían los uruguayos si las elecciones fueran hoy? La última encuesta de Equipos Consultores" (in Spanish).
  62. ↑ "Intención de voto por partido - Noviembre 2021" (in Spanish).
  63. ↑ "A dos años de las elecciones de 2019: ¿qué votarían hoy los uruguayos?". subrayado.com.uy (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 December 2021.
  64. ↑ "Preferencias Partidarias - Mayo 2021". 6 July 2021.
  65. ↑ "Encuesta de Equipos compara escenarios para las elecciones de octubre y noviembre según el candidato de cada partido" (in Spanish).
  66. ↑ "Preferencias Partidarias – Febrero 2024".
  67. ↑ "El Frente Amplio lidera otra encuesta de intención de voto" (in Spanish).
  68. ↑ "Preferencias Partidarias – Diciembre 2023" (in Spanish).
  69. ↑ "Encuesta de Equipos Consultores compara escenarios para las elecciones según el candidato de cada partido" (in Spanish).
  70. 1 2 "Preferencias presidenciales y escenarios de intención de voto" (in Spanish).
  71. ↑ "LAS INTERNAS AL ARRANQUE FORMAL DE LA CAMPAÑA" (in Spanish).
  72. ↑ "LOS PRE CANDIDATOS HOY" (in Spanish).
  73. ↑ "LOS PRE CANDIDATOS HOY" (in Spanish).
  74. ↑ "LOS PRE CANDIDATOS HOY" (in Spanish).
  75. ↑ "LOS PRE CANDIDATOS HOY" (in Spanish).
  76. ↑ "PRESIDENTE PREFERIDO PARA EL PROXIMO PERIODO" (in Spanish).
  77. ↑ "Yamandú Orsi tendría ventaja en un eventual balotaje, según una encuesta de Cifra".
  78. ↑ "INVESTIGACIÓN NACIONAL MPC JULIO 2024".
  79. ↑ "Investigación Nacional MPC Mayo 2024".
  80. ↑ "Uruguay: una encuesta proyecta un triunfo por 7 puntos de la oposición en segunda vuelta" (in Spanish).
  81. ↑ "Encuesta de Equipos compara escenarios para las elecciones de octubre y noviembre según el candidato de cada partido" (in Spanish).
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