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Florida's 13th congressional district | |||||||||||||||||
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![]() County results Jolly: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Florida |
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A special election for Florida's 13th congressional district was held March 11, 2014, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives, following the death of incumbent Republican Congressman Bill Young on October 18, 2013. [1] Primary elections were held on January 14, 2014. [2] Young, who had already announced that he would not be running for re-election in 2014, was re-elected in 2012 with 57 percent of the vote. [3] With 100% of the precincts reporting, David Jolly was declared the winner.
On October 9, 2013, Republican Bill Young, who had held this Tampa Bay-area district since 1971, announced that he would not run for re-election to a twenty-second term in 2014. He died nine days later and this special election was called to fill his seat. Though Young had been re-elected by wide margins, the district in recent years had become competitive. In the four most recent presidential elections, it was won by Al Gore over George W. Bush in 2000 51%-49%, by Bush with 51%-49% in 2004, by Barack Obama over John McCain 51%-47% and again carried by Obama in 2012 by a narrower 50%-49% over Mitt Romney. Given this, some political commentators and journalists viewed this election as a bellwether for the fall 2014 elections. [4] [5] While discounting the idea of special elections as bellwethers, political scientists agreed the result was a data point that public sentiment favored Republicans. [6]
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Bircher | David Jolly | Kathleen Peters | Undecided |
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St. Pete Polls [37] | January 9, 2014 | 653 | ± 3.8% | 26.3% | 36.5% | 23.9% | 13.3% |
Gravis Marketing [38] | January 8, 2014 | 976 | ± 3% | 25% | 34% | 28% | 14% |
St. Pete Polls [39] | December 30, 2013 | 488 | ± 4.4% | 17.7% | 39.4% | 27.7% | 15.1% |
St. Pete Polls [40] | December 18, 2013 | 660 | ± 3.8% | 16.1% | 34.9% | 30.2% | 18.9% |
St. Pete Polls [41] | December 3, 2013 | 534 | ± 4.2% | 17.2% | 27.8% | 27.1% | 28.0% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Rick Baker | Neil Brickfield | Larry Crow | Frank Hibbard | David Jolly | Kathleen Peters | Karen Seel | Other | Undecided |
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St. Pete Polls [42] | November 18, 2013 | 582 | ± 4.1% | — | — | — | — | 39.2% | 17.3% | — | 30.9% | 12.6% |
St. Pete Polls [43] | November 5, 2013 | 498 | ± 4.4% | — | 16.8% | — | 15% | 18.7% | — | — | 28.7% | 20.8% |
St. Pete Polls [44] | October 15, 2013 | 742 | ± 3.6% | 51% | 7% | 4% | — | 2% | — | 10% | 27% | — |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | David Jolly | 20,493 | 45 | |
Republican | Kathleen Peters | 14,234 | 31 | |
Republican | Mark Bircher | 11,242 | 24 | |
Total votes | 45,810 | 100 |
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jessica Ehrlich | Alex Sink | Other | Undecided |
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St. Pete Polls [43] | November 5, 2013 | 367 | ± 5.1% | 10.6% | 69.6% | 10.7% | 9.1% |
St. Pete Polls [44] | October 15, 2013 | 706 | ± 3.7% | 20% | 63% | 10% | 7% |
One voter was confused by a website called "sinkforcongress2014" accepting donations to the National Republican Congressional Committee to defeat Sink and other Democrats, thinking it was a pro-Sink website. His $250 donation was refunded by the NRCC. [55]
David Jolly, Lucas Overby, and Alex Sink, the three candidates appearing on the ballot for the special election, took part in a televised debate on February 3, 2014. Held at the Seminole Campus of St. Petersburg College and co-hosted by the Tampa Bay Times and Bay News 9, the event aired live on C-SPAN 3. Al Ruechel, Adam Smith, and Amy Hollyfield served as moderators. [56] The debate can be viewed in its entirety here.
A non-scientific poll conducted after the debate by Bay News 9 indicated that overall viewers felt David Jolly had won with 37% of the vote, followed by Alex Sink with 33% and Lucas Overby with 30%. [57]
During the campaign, OpenSecrets reported on February 13, 2014, that outside groups had spent $3.5 million on the election, with $2.6 million of that from groups that support Jolly. This makes it the most expensive election of the 2014 cycle so far and one of the most expensive special congressional elections in history. [58]
The Associated Press reports that $11 million total was spent as the Democratic Party poured money into the campaign in its final weeks. In the end, Sink outspent Jolly by 3 to 1 on television ads as well as outspending him overall. [59]
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | David Jolly (R) | Alex Sink (D) | Lucas Overby (L) | Undecided |
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Public Policy Polling [69] | March 7–9, 2014 | 702 | ± 3.7% | 45% | 48% | 6% | 2% |
RedRacingHorses & PMI inc. [70] | February 25–27, 2014 | 391 | ± 6% | 46% | 44% | 5% | 5% |
St. Pete Polls [71] | February 25, 2014 | 1,269 | ± 2.8% | 45.6% | 45.9% | 6.4% | 2.1% |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates [72] | February 17–18, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 44% | 42% | — | 14% |
St. Pete Polls [73] | February 12, 2014 | 1,130 | ± 2.9% | 46.2% | 44% | 6.6% | 2.4% |
St. Leo University [74] | February 9–11, 2014 | 400 | ± 5% | 37% | 46% | 12% | 5% |
Braun Research [75] | February 4–9, 2014 | 603 | ± 4% | 35% | 42% | 4% | 14% |
DCCC [76] | January 24, 2014 | 527 | ± 4.3% | 45% | 49% | — | 6% |
McLaughlin & Associates [77] | January 16–19, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 43% | 38% | 4% | 15% |
St. Pete Polls [78] | January 15, 2014 | 1,278 | ± 2.7% | 47% | 42.8% | 4.4% | 5.9% |
St. Pete Polls [41] | December 3, 2013 | 1,128 | ± 2.9% | 36.3% | 49% | 5.6% | 8.8% |
St. Pete Polls [42] | November 18, 2013 | 1,252 | ± 2.8% | 34.9% | 49.3% | — | 15.7% |
St. Pete Polls [43] | November 5, 2013 | 1,079 | ± 3% | 31% | 51.5% | — | 17.5% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Rick Baker (R) | Jessica Ehrlich (D) | Undecided |
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St. Pete Polls [44] | October 15, 2013 | 1,741 | ± 2.3% | 34.6% | 30.7% | 34.7% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Rick Baker (R) | Alex Sink (D) | Undecided |
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St. Pete Polls [44] | October 15, 2013 | 1,741 | ± 2.3% | 34.0% | 50.8% | 15.2% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Bircher (R) | Alex Sink (D) | Undecided |
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St. Pete Polls [41] | December 3, 2013 | 1,128 | ± 2.9% | 30.2% | 50.4% | 12.1% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Neil Brickfield (R) | Alex Sink (D) | Undecided |
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St. Pete Polls [43] | November 5, 2013 | 1,079 | ± 3% | 30.1% | 51.2% | 18.8% |
St. Pete Polls [44] | October 15, 2013 | 1,741 | ± 2.3% | 24.0% | 56.6% | 19.4% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Frank Hibbard (R) | Alex Sink (D) | Undecided |
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St. Pete Polls [43] | November 5, 2013 | 1,079 | ± 3% | 30.7% | 51.6% | 17.7% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kathleen Peters (R) | Alex Sink (D) | Undecided |
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St. Pete Polls [41] | December 3, 2013 | 1,128 | ± 2.9% | 34.6% | 47.7% | 12.2% |
St. Pete Polls [42] | November 18, 2013 | 1,252 | ± 2.8% | 30.7% | 49.7% | 19.6% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | David Jolly | 89,167 | 48.52% | −9.05% | |
Democratic | Alex Sink | 85,673 | 46.62% | +4.19% | |
Libertarian | Lucas Overby | 8,919 | 4.86% | N/A | |
n/a | Michael S. Levinson (write-in) | 13 | 0.00% | N/A | |
Total votes | '183,772' | '100.0%' | N/A | ||
Republican hold |