2014 Florida's 13th congressional district special election

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2014 Florida's 13th congressional district special election
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Florida's 13th congressional district
  David Jolly (cropped).jpg Alex Sink (cropped).png
Nominee David Jolly Alex Sink
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote89,16785,673
Percentage48.5%46.6%
Florida 13th District.png
County result
Jolly:     40–50%
U.S. Representative before election

Bill Young
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

David Jolly
Republican

A special election for Florida's 13th congressional district was held March 11, 2014, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives, following the death of incumbent Republican Congressman Bill Young on October 18, 2013. [1] Primary elections were held on January 14, 2014. [2] Young, who had already announced that he would not be running for re-election in 2014, was re-elected in 2012 with 57 percent of the vote. [3] With 100% of the precincts reporting, David Jolly was declared the winner of the special election.

Contents

Background

On October 9, 2013, Republican Bill Young, who had held this Tampa Bay-area district since 1971, announced that he would not run for re-election to a twenty-second term in 2014. He died 9 days later and this special election was called to fill his seat. Though Young had been re-elected by wide margins, the district in recent years had become competitive. In the four most recent presidential elections, it was won by Al Gore over George W. Bush in 2000 51%-49%, by Bush with 51%-49% in 2004, by Barack Obama over John McCain 51%-47% and again carried by Obama in 2012 by a narrower 50%-49% over Mitt Romney. Given this, some political commentators and journalists viewed this election as a bellwether for the fall 2014 elections. [4] [5] While discounting the idea of special elections as bellwethers, political scientists' agreed the result was a data point that public sentiment favored Republicans. [6]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Mark Bircher
Politicians
David Jolly
Politicians
Others
Organizations
Kathleen Peters
Politicians
  • Joe Ayoub, Mayor of Safety Harbor [7]
  • Neil Brickfield, former Pinellas County Commissioner [7]
  • Ken Burke, Clerk of Court [32]
  • Rick Butler, Pinellas Park City Council member [32]
  • Jim Coats, former Sheriff of Pinellas County [32]
  • George Cretekos, Mayor of Clearwater [7]
  • Max Elson, South Pasadena City Commissioner [32]
  • Frank Farkas, former State representative [30]
  • Bill Foster, former Mayor of St. Petersburg [33]
  • Bob Gualtieri, Sheriff of Pinellas County [7]
  • Hoyt Hamilton, former Clearwater City Council member [32]
  • Doreen Hock-DiPolito, Clearwater City Council member [32]
  • Ed Hooper, state representative [32]
  • Patti Johnson, Pinellas Park City Council member [32]
  • Bill Jonson, Clearwater City Council member [32]
  • Jack Latvala, state senator [7]
  • Bob Minning, Mayor of Treasure Island [32]
  • Gail Neidinger, South Pasadena City Commissioner [32]
  • Diane Nelson, Pinellas County Tax Collector [32]
  • Peggy O'Shea, Pinellas County School Board member [32]
  • Travis Palladeno, Mayor of Madeira Beach [32]
  • Arthur Penny, South Pasadena City Commissioner [32]
  • Jay Polglaze, Clearwater City Council member [32]
  • Suzy Sofer, Bellaire Bluffs Commissioner [32]
  • Ann Wagner, U.S. Representative from Missouri [34]
Others
  • Bill Young II, son of Bill Young [7]
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Bircher		David
Jolly		Kathleen
Peters		Undecided
St. Pete Polls January 9, 2014653± 3.8%26.3%36.5%23.9%13.3%
Gravis Marketing January 8, 2014976± 3%25%34%28%14%
St. Pete Polls December 30, 2013488± 4.4%17.7%39.4%27.7%15.1%
St. Pete Polls December 18, 2013660± 3.8%16.1%34.9%30.2%18.9%
St. Pete Polls December 3, 2013534± 4.2%17.2%27.8%27.1%28.0%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Baker		Neil
Brickfield		Larry
Crow		Frank
Hibbard		David
Jolly		Kathleen
Peters		Karen
Seel		OtherUndecided
St. Pete Polls November 18, 2013582± 4.1%————39.2%17.3%—30.9%12.6%
St. Pete Polls November 5, 2013498± 4.4%—16.8%—15%18.7%——28.7%20.8%
St. Pete Polls October 15, 2013742± 3.6%51%7%4%—2%—10%27%—

Results

Republican primary results [37]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican David Jolly 20,493 45
Republican Kathleen Peters 14,23431
Republican Mark Bircher 11,24224
Total votes45,810 100

Democratic nomination

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Alex Sink
Politicians
  • Joseph Barkley, Belleair Bluffs city council member [42]
  • Nancy Besore, Safety Harbor Commissioner [43]
  • Kathy Castor, U.S. Representative [44]
  • Dwight Dudley, state representative [42]
  • Rene Flowers, Pinellas County School Board member [42]
  • Amy Foster, St. Petersburg City Council member [43]
  • Michael Fridovich, Gulfport City Council member [43]
  • Patricia Gerard, Mayor of Largo [42]
  • Samuel Henderson, Mayor of Gulfport [43]
  • Lorraine Huhn, Vice Mayor of St. Pete Beach [43]
  • Robert Jackson, former Mayor of Largo [42]
  • Charlie Justice, Pinellas County Commissioner [42]
  • Steve Kornell, St. Petersburg City Council member [42]
  • Linda Lerner, Pinellas County School Board member [42]
  • Janet C. Long, Pinellas County Commissioner [42]
  • Jack Nazario, Belleair Bluffs Commissioner [43]
  • Karl Nurse, St. Petersburg City Council member [42]
  • Carlen Petersen, former Clearwater City Council member [43]
  • Patricia Plantamura, Seminole City Council member [42]
  • Jim Quinn, Seminole City Council member [43]
  • Darryl Rouson, state representative [42]
  • Mike Smith, Largo City Council member [42]
  • Ken Welch, Pinellas County Commissioner [42]
  • Carl Zimmermann, state representative [42]
Organisations

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jessica
Ehrlich		Alex
Sink		OtherUndecided
St. Pete Polls November 5, 2013367± 5.1%10.6%69.6%10.7%9.1%
St. Pete Polls October 15, 2013706± 3.7%20%63%10%7%

General election

Candidates

One voter was confused by a website called "sinkforcongress2014" accepting donations to the National Republican Congressional Committee to defeat Sink and other Democrats, thinking it was a pro-Sink website. His $250 donation was refunded by the NRCC. [47]

Debates

David Jolly, Lucas Overby, and Alex Sink, the three candidates appearing on the ballot for the special election, took part in a televised debate on February 3, 2014. Held at the Seminole Campus of St. Petersburg College and co-hosted by the Tampa Bay Times and Bay News 9, the event aired live on C-SPAN 3. Al Ruechel, Adam Smith, and Amy Hollyfield served as moderators. [48] The debate can be viewed in its entirety here.

A non-scientific poll conducted after the debate by Bay News 9 indicated that overall viewers felt David Jolly had won with 37% of the vote, followed by Alex Sink with 33% and Lucas Overby with 30%. [49]

Campaign spending

During the campaign, OpenSecrets reported on February 13, 2014, that outside groups had spent $3.5 million on the election, with $2.6 million of that from groups that support Jolly. This makes it the most expensive election of the 2014 cycle so far and one of the most expensive special congressional elections in history. [50]

The Associated Press reports that $11 million total was spent as the Democratic Party poured money into the campaign in its final weeks. In the end, Sink outspent Jolly by 3 to 1 on television ads as well as outspending him overall. [51]

Endorsements

David Jolly
Politicians
Others
Organizations
Lucas Overby
Politicians
Alex Sink
Politicians
  • Joseph Barkley, Belleair Bluffs city council member [42]
  • Nancy Besore, Safety Harbor Commissioner [43]
  • Kathy Castor, U.S. Representative [44]
  • Dwight Dudley, state representative [42]
  • Rene Flowers, Pinellas County School Board member [42]
  • Amy Foster, St. Petersburg City Council member [43]
  • Michael Fridovich, Gulfport City Council member [43]
  • Patricia Gerard, Mayor of Largo [42]
  • Samuel Henderson, Mayor of Gulfport [43]
  • Lorraine Huhn, Vice Mayor of St. Pete Beach [43]
  • Robert Jackson, former Mayor of Largo [42]
  • Charlie Justice, Pinellas County Commissioner [42]
  • Steve Kornell, St. Petersburg City Council member [42]
  • Susan Latvala, Republican Pinellas County Commissioner [59]
  • Linda Lerner, Pinellas County School Board member [42]
  • Janet C. Long, Pinellas County Commissioner [42]
  • Jack Nazario, Belleair Bluffs Commissioner [43]
  • Karl Nurse, St. Petersburg City Council member [42]
  • Carlen Petersen, former Clearwater City Council member [43]
  • Patricia Plantamura, Seminole City Council member [42]
  • Jim Quinn, Seminole City Council member [43]
  • Darden Rice, St. Petersburg City Council member [42]
  • Darryl Rouson, state representative [42]
  • Mike Smith, Largo City Council member [42]
  • Ken Welch, Pinellas County Commissioner [42]
  • Carl Zimmermann, state representative [42]
Organisations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		David
Jolly (R)		Alex
Sink (D)		Lucas
Overby (L)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 7–9, 2014702± 3.7%45%48%6%2%
RedRacingHorses & PMI inc. February 25–27, 2014391± 6%46%44%5%5%
St. Pete Polls February 25, 20141,269± 2.8%45.6%45.9%6.4%2.1%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates February 17–18, 2014400± 4.9%44%42%—14%
St. Pete Polls February 12, 20141,130± 2.9%46.2%44%6.6%2.4%
St. Leo University February 9–11, 2014400± 5%37%46%12%5%
Braun Research February 4–9, 2014603± 4%35%42%4%14%
DCCC January 24, 2014527± 4.3%45%49%—6%
McLaughlin & Associates January 16–19, 2014400± 4.9%43%38%4%15%
St. Pete Polls January 15, 20141,278± 2.7%47%42.8%4.4%5.9%
St. Pete Polls December 3, 20131,128± 2.9%36.3%49%5.6%8.8%
St. Pete Polls November 18, 20131,252± 2.8%34.9%49.3%—15.7%
St. Pete Polls November 5, 20131,079± 3%31%51.5%—17.5%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Baker (R)		Jessica
Ehrlich (D)		Undecided
St. Pete Polls October 15, 20131,741± 2.3%34.6%30.7%34.7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Baker (R)		Alex
Sink (D)		Undecided
St. Pete Polls October 15, 20131,741± 2.3%34.0%50.8%15.2%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Bircher (R)		Alex
Sink (D)		Undecided
St. Pete Polls December 3, 20131,128± 2.9%30.2%50.4%12.1%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Neil
Brickfield (R)		Alex
Sink (D)		Undecided
St. Pete Polls November 5, 20131,079± 3%30.1%51.2%18.8%
St. Pete Polls October 15, 20131,741± 2.3%24.0%56.6%19.4%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Frank
Hibbard (R)		Alex
Sink (D)		Undecided
St. Pete Polls November 5, 20131,079± 3%30.7%51.6%17.7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Kathleen
Peters (R)		Alex
Sink (D)		Undecided
St. Pete Polls December 3, 20131,128± 2.9%34.6%47.7%12.2%
St. Pete Polls November 18, 20131,252± 2.8%30.7%49.7%19.6%

Results

Florida's 13th congressional district, 2014 (special) [61]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican David Jolly 89,167 48.52% -9.05%
Democratic Alex Sink85,67346.62%+4.19%
Libertarian Lucas Overby8,9194.86%N/A
n/a Michael S. Levinson (write-in)130.00%N/A
Total votes'183,772''100.0%'N/A
Republican hold

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References

  1. ↑ Alex Isenstadt (October 18, 2013). "Bill Young, longest-serving House Republican, dies". Politico . Retrieved October 19, 2013.
  2. ↑ Abby Livingston (October 30, 2013). "Florida House Special-Election Date Scheduled". Roll Call . Archived from the original on November 1, 2013. Retrieved October 30, 2013.
  3. ↑ "November 6, 2012 General Election – Official Results". Florida Department of State. Archived from the original on October 21, 2013. Retrieved October 19, 2013.
  4. ↑ Kucinich, Jackie (November 22, 2013). In Fla., late Rep. Young’s purple-trending district will test waters for 2014 midterms. The Washington Post.
  5. ↑ The Hill
    CNN
    Orlando Sentinel
    New York Magazine
    Sunshine State News
    WSJ
    WWSB Archived 2016-03-04 at the Wayback Machine
  6. ↑ Larry J. Sabato; Kyle Kondik (March 12, 2014). "The Limited Meaning of Florida's Special House Election". Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball.
    Nathan L. Gonzales (March 10, 2014). "Why Florida's 13th District Special Election Is Still a Tossup". The Rothenberg Political Report.
    Sean Trende (March 11, 2014). "What Should We Read Into FL-13? Maybe Nothing". RealClearPolitics.
    Harry Enten (March 12, 2014). "Don't Read Too Much Into Result in Florida's 13th District". FiveThirtyEight.
    Nate Silver (September 13, 2011). "A Guide to Cutting Through Special-Election Spin". FiveThirtyEight.
  7. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Curtis Krueger (November 19, 2013). "State Rep. Kathleen Peters enters Pinellas congressional race, creating a GOP contest". Tampa Bay Times.
  8. 1 2 3 4 "Rick Baker won't run for Young's seat, but David Jolly will". Tampa Bay Times. November 2, 2013. Retrieved November 2, 2013.
  9. ↑ Curtis Krueger (November 18, 2013). "State Rep. Peters files paperwork for Pinellas congressional seat, plans announcement for Tuesday". Tampa Bay Times.
  10. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Peter Schorsch (November 10, 2013). "Rick Baker endorses David Jolly in special election for Congressional District 13". SaintPetersBlog. Archived from the original on November 13, 2013. Retrieved November 11, 2013.
  11. ↑ "Safety Harbor Mayor Ayoub not running for Congress and so far not supporting GOP candidate David Jolly". November 13, 2012. Archived from the original on November 14, 2013. Retrieved November 13, 2013.
  12. ↑ Peter Schorsch (November 2, 2013). "Former St. Pete mayor Rick Baker announcing he is NOT running for Congressional District 13". SaintPetersBlog.
  13. ↑ Peter Schorsch (November 2, 2013). "Former Pinellas Commissioner Brickfield will not run for Congress". Tampa Bay Times.
  14. 1 2 Curtis Krueger (November 2, 2013). "Who's in, who's out in race for Rep. C.W. Bill Young's seat". Tampa Bay Times. Archived from the original on November 4, 2013. Retrieved November 3, 2013.
  15. ↑ Curtis Krueger (November 7, 2013). "Pinellas Sheriff Bob Gualtieri says no to congressional run". Tampa Bay Times.
  16. ↑ Curtis Krueger (November 7, 2013). "GOP's Gualtieri and Hibbard rule out campaign to replace Young in Congress". Tampa Bay Times.
  17. ↑ Peter Schorsch (November 6, 2013). "Tea Party loon, charity scammer Michael Pinson announces he won't run for Congress". SaintPetersBlog. Archived from the original on November 8, 2013. Retrieved November 7, 2013.
  18. ↑ Curtis Krueger (November 5, 2013). "Pinellas Commissioner Karen Seel won't run for Congress". Tampa Bay Times. Archived from the original on November 8, 2013. Retrieved November 5, 2013.
  19. ↑ Peter Schorsch (November 1, 2013). "Bill Young, Jr. announces HE WILL NOT seek his father's congressional seat". SaintPetersBlog.
  20. ↑ Curtis Krueger (November 11, 2013). "Tom Young won't run for his brother's seat in Congress". Tampa Bay Times. Archived from the original on November 13, 2013. Retrieved November 12, 2013.
  21. ↑ Peter Schorsch (October 22, 2013). "CD 13 aspirant Nick Zoller tells me he won't run in special election; wants Beverly Young to complete term". SaintPetersBlog.
  22. ↑ Adam C. Smith (December 18, 2013). "Allen West backs Mark Bircher in race for Young seat". Tampa Bay Times. Archived from the original on December 19, 2013. Retrieved December 19, 2013.
  23. 1 2 Peter Schorsch (November 14, 2013). "David Jolly gets key Pinellas endorsement from Sen. Jeff Brandes". SaintPetersBlog. Archived from the original on November 14, 2013.
  24. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 "Clearwater Fraternal Order of Police Endorses Republican David Jolly for Congress" (PDF). Friends of David Jolly. November 21, 2013.
  25. 1 2 Curtis Krueger (December 10, 2013). "Endorsement wars are raging in Pinellas congressional race". Tampa Bay Times. Archived from the original on December 15, 2013. Retrieved December 11, 2013.
  26. 1 2 Peter Schorsch (November 17, 2013). "Property Appraiser Pam Dubov backs David Jolly's bid for CD 13". SaintPetersBlog. Archived from the original on November 30, 2013. Retrieved November 17, 2013.
  27. 1 2 Peter Schorsch (November 8, 2013). "U.S. Rep. Richard Nugent endorses David Jolly's congressional bid". SaintPetersBlog. Archived from the original on November 13, 2013. Retrieved November 8, 2013.
  28. 1 2 3 4 Curtis Krueger (November 8, 2013). "Endorsements for Congressional candidate David Jolly". Tampa Bay Times. Archived from the original on November 9, 2013. Retrieved November 9, 2013.
  29. 1 2 "Bob Barker says 'the choice is right'".
  30. 1 2 3 Curtis Krueger (December 17, 2013). "Farkas endorses Peters, contractors endorse Jolly in Pinellas GOP congress race". Tampa Bay Times. Archived from the original on December 19, 2013. Retrieved December 18, 2013.
  31. ↑ "Tribune endorses David Jolly for District 13 GOP primary". Tampa Tribune. December 22, 2013. Archived from the original on December 24, 2013. Retrieved December 22, 2013.
  32. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Phil Ammann (November 30, 2013). "Bill Young Jr. helping to host Dec. 4 fundraiser for Kathleen Peters". SaintPetersBlog. Archived from the original on November 30, 2013.
  33. ↑ Peter Schorsch (December 10, 2013). "Email Insights: not-too-bitter Bill Foster endorses Kathleen Peters". SaintPetersBlog. Archived from the original on December 13, 2013. Retrieved December 11, 2013.
  34. ↑ Abby Livingston (December 9, 2013). "House GOP Women Fundraise for Florida Special Candidate (Updated)". RollCall. Archived from the original on December 9, 2013. Retrieved December 9, 2013.
  35. ↑ Curtis Krueger (November 21, 2013). "In Pinellas congressional race, Peters and Jolly receive new endorsementss". Tampa Bay Times. Archived from the original on November 25, 2013. Retrieved November 22, 2013.
  36. ↑ "Times recommends: Kathleen Peters for U.S. House GOP primary". Tampa Bay Times. December 16, 2013.
  37. ↑ "Republican primary results". Associated Press. Retrieved January 14, 2014.
  38. ↑ Adam C. Smith (October 30, 2013). "Alex Sink is running for C.W. Bill Young's congressional seat, will move to Pinellas". Tampa Bay Times.
  39. ↑ Abby Livingston (November 6, 2013). "Democrat Suspends Campaign Against Alex Sink in Florida District". Roll Call. Archived from the original on November 10, 2013. Retrieved November 6, 2013.
  40. ↑ Curtis Krueger (October 28, 2013). "Pinellas Commissioner Janet Long decides against running for Congress". Tampa Bay Times.
  41. 1 2 "Pinellas Commissioner Charlie Justice won't run for Young's seat, Libertarian Lucas Overby will". Tampa Bay Times. October 25, 2012. Retrieved October 25, 2013.
  42. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Curtis Krueger (November 12, 2013). "Congressional candidate Alex Sink touts Pinellas endorsements". Tampa Bay Times. Archived from the original on November 13, 2013. Retrieved November 13, 2013.
  43. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Peter Schorsch (December 2, 2013). "Alex Sink picks up more endorsements from Pinellas elected officials". SaintPetersBlog. Archived from the original on December 2, 2013.
  44. 1 2 Peter Schorsch (November 14, 2013). "Dog bites man: Kathy Castor endorses Alex Sink for Congress". SaintPetersBlog. Archived from the original on November 16, 2013. Retrieved November 14, 2013.
  45. 1 2 "EMILY's List Endorses Alex Sink For Florida Congressional Seat". Talking Points Memo. October 31, 2013. Retrieved October 31, 2013.
  46. ↑ Curtis Krueger (November 20, 2013). "Congressional candidate Jolly calls for replacing controversial flood insurance program". Tampa Bay Times. Archived from the original on January 21, 2014. Retrieved November 20, 2013.
  47. ↑ Leary, Alex (February 3, 2014). "Campaign site misleads man into donating money against Sink". Tampa Bay Times. Archived from the original on February 4, 2014. Retrieved February 3, 2014.
  48. ↑ "Florida 13th District Debate, Feb 3 2014 - Video - C-SPAN.org". www.c-span.org.
  49. ↑ "Who do you think did best at Monday night's Congressional debate?". Bay News 9. Archived from the original on 8 February 2014. Retrieved 9 February 2014.
  50. ↑ "Outside Spending Dominates in Florida, to Jolly's Benefit". OpenSecrets. 2014-02-13. Retrieved 17 February 2014.
  51. ↑ "Florida Special Election Results: David Jolly Wins House Seat In State's 13th District". Associated Press/Huffington Post. 2014-03-11. Retrieved 11 March 2014.
  52. 1 2 3 Curtis Krueger (January 15, 2014). "Kathleen Peters not ready to endorse David Jolly". Tampa Bay Times.
  53. 1 2 "Rick Scott raising money for David Jolly". 28 January 2014.
  54. ↑ Kevin Derby (January 23, 2014). "John McCain, NRCC Help Out David Jolly Over Alex Sink". Sunshine State News. Archived from the original on January 26, 2014.
  55. ↑ Curtis Krueger (January 20, 2014). "After balking, GOP candidate supports David Jolly in Pinellas congressional race". Tampa Bay Times.
  56. ↑ Derby, Kevin (10 February 2014). "Marco Rubio Showcases Support for David Jolly Against Alex Sink". Sunshine State News - Florida Political News.
  57. ↑ "Tribune endorsement: David Jolly for U.S. House District 13". Tampa Tribune. February 9, 2014. Archived from the original on March 6, 2016. Retrieved February 21, 2014.
  58. ↑ Jed Ziggler (January 13, 2014). "Gary Johnson endorses Lucas Overby". Independent Political Report.
  59. ↑ Adam C. Smith (February 23, 2014). "Republican endorses Alex Sink". Tampa Bay Times. Archived from the original on February 28, 2014. Retrieved February 24, 2014.
  60. ↑ "Times recommends: Alex Sink for U.S. House". Tampa Bay Times. February 7, 2014. Retrieved February 9, 2014.
  61. ↑ "Florida Department of State - Election Results".
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