Opinion polling for the 2024 French legislative election

Last updated November 05, 2024

This page lists public opinion polls conducted for the snap 2024 French legislative election, which will be held in two rounds on 30 June and 7 July 2024. Unless otherwise noted, all polls listed below are compliant with the regulations of the national polling commission and utilize the quota method. Sample sizes listed are for registered voters, and polls are listed in reverse chronological then alphabetical order by name of institute.

National polling

Graphical summary

First round

The 20:00 CEST estimations made by various pollsters are not traditional exit polls, but are instead based on the level of turnout reported and first set of ballots counted at polling stations which close an hour or two earlier.^{[lower-alpha 1]}

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout	EXG	NFP				DVG	ECO	ENS	DVC	DSV	DVD	LR (CNI)^{[lower-alpha 2]}	RN and allies		REC	REG	Others

					LFI	PCF	LE	PS								LR (UXD)^{[lower-alpha 3]}	RN

Ministry of the Interior	30 Jun 2024	—	66.71%	1.14%	28.21%				1.57%	0.57%	21.28%	1.22%	0.28%	3.60%	6.57%	3.96%	29.26%	0.75%	0.97%	0.63%
Elabe	30 Jun 2024	20:00 CEST est.	67.5%	1.5%	28.5%				1.5%	–	22.0%		0.5%^{[lower-alpha 4]}	10.5%		33.0%		0.5%	–	2.0%
Harris Interactive			67.0%	–	29.6%					–	22.4%		–^{[lower-alpha 5]}	10.0%		34.2%		1.0%^{[lower-alpha 6]}	–	2.8%
Ifop			67.0%	1.3%	29.1%				–	–	21.5%	–	–	10.0%		34.2%		0.6%	–	3.3%
Ipsos			65.5%	1.2%	28.1%				1.8%	–	20.3%	1.4%	0.3%	10.2%		4.0%	30.0%	0.6%	–	2.1%
OpinionWay			67.5%	1.5%	29.0%				–	–	22.0%	–	–	9.0%		34.0%		1.0%	–	3.5%
Harris Interactive	27–28 Jun 2024	2,182	–	0.5%	28%				1%	–	20%	1%	0.5%	2%	6%	3%	34%	2%	–	2%
Ipsos	27–28 Jun 2024	10,286	64%	1%	29%				1%	–	20%	1.5%	0.5%	8%		4%	32%	1%	–	2%
Ifop	25–28 Jun 2024	2,824	67%	1%	29%				1%	–	20.5%	0.5%	–	7%		36.5%		1.5%	–	3%
Elabe	26–27 Jun 2024	1,871	64%	1%	27.5%				2%	–	20%	0.5%	0.5%^{[lower-alpha 4]}	9%		36%		1.5%	–	2%
Odoxa	26–27 Jun 2024	1,896	66%	1%	27.5%				1.5%	1%	21%	–	–	2%	7%	35%		1.5%	–	2.5%
OpinionWay	26–27 Jun 2024	1,058	65%	1%	28%				1%	<1%	20%	–	–	2%	6%	37%		1%	–	4%
Cluster17	25–27 Jun 2024	2,465	65%	1.5%	29.5%				1%	–	20%	1%	–	1.5%	7.5%	4%	31%	1.5%	–	1.5%
Ifop	24–27 Jun 2024	2,823	66%	0.5%	29%				1%	–	21%	1%	–	6.5%		36%		1.5%	–	3.5%
Harris Interactive	25–26 Jun 2024	2,014	–	0.5%	27%				1%	–	21%	0.5%	0.5%	2%	6%	3%	34%	2%	–	2.5%
OpinionWay	25–26 Jun 2024	1,035	–	1%	28%				1%	1%	20%	–	–	2%	7%	36%		2%	–	2%
Ifop	22–26 Jun 2024	2,343	66%	1%	28.5%				1%	–	21%	1%	–	6%		36%		1%	–	4.5%
Ifop	21–25 Jun 2024	2,335	64.5%	1%	28.5%				0.5%	–	21%	1%	–	6.5%		36%		1.5%	–	4%
Cluster17	22–24 Jun 2024	2,470	64.5%	1.5%	30%				1.5%	–	19.5%	1%	–	1.5%	7.5%	4%	30.5%	1.5%	–	1.5%
Harris Interactive	21–24 Jun 2024	2,004	–	1%	27%				1%	–	20%	1%	0.5%	2%	7%	4%	33%	2%	–	1.5%
Ipsos	21–24 Jun 2024	11,820	63%	1%	29%				1%	–	19.5%	1.5%	0.5%	8%		4%	32%	1.5%	–	2%
OpinionWay	21–24 Jun 2024	3,040	58%	1%	28%				1%	<1%	19%	–	–	4%	7%	36%		1%	–	3%
Ifop	20–24 Jun 2024	1,843	63.5%	1%	29.5%				1%	–	20.5%	1%	–	7%		36%		1%	–	3%
Ifop	19–22 Jun 2024	1,853	64%	1.5%	29%				1%	–	21%	1%	–	7%		35.5%		1%	–	3%
Elabe	19–21 Jun 2024	1,870	63%	1%	27%				2%	–	20%	0.5%	0.5%^{[lower-alpha 4]}	10%		36%		1.5%	–	1.5%
Ifop	18–21 Jun 2024	2,317	64%	1%	29%				1%	–	21.5%	1%	–	6.5%		35%		1.5%	–	3.5%
Harris Interactive	19–20 Jun 2024	2,004	–	1%	26%				1%	–	21%	1%	0.5%	2%	6%	2%	33%	3%	–	3.5%
Ipsos	19–20 Jun 2024	2,000	62%	1.5%	29.5%				1%	–	19.5%	1%	1.5%		7%	4%	31.5%	2%	–	1.5%
Odoxa	19–20 Jun 2024	1,861	64%	2%	28%				3%	1.5%	19%	–	–	1%	7%	33%		3.5%	–	2%
OpinionWay	19–20 Jun 2024	1,009	–	1%	28%				1%	<1%	22%	–	–	3%	6%	35%		1%	–	3%
Ifop	18–20 Jun 2024	1,861	64%	1%	29%				1%	–	22%	1%	–	6%		34%		2%	–	4%
OpinionWay	18–20 Jun 2024	1,057	–	<1%	27%				2%	1%	20%	–	–	2%	7%	35%		2%	–	4%
Cluster17	17–19 Jun 2024	2,654	60.5%	1%	30%				3%	–	19%	–	–	2.5%	7%	32%		2.5%	–	3%
Ifop	14–17 Jun 2024	1,131	62%	1.5%	28%				3%	–	18%	–	0.5%	2%	5%	4%	33%	3%	–	2%
Ifop	13–14 Jun 2024	1,114	63%	1%	26%				3.5%	–	19%	–	1%	1.5%	7%		35%	3%	–	3%
OpinionWay	12–13 Jun 2024	1,011	–	1%	25%				2%	2%	20%	–	–	2%	7%		33%	3%	–	5%
Cluster17	11–13 Jun 2024	2,764	60%	1%	28.5%				3%	1.5%	18%	1%	1.5%	2.5%	7%		29.5%	3.5%	1%	2%
Elabe	11–12 Jun 2024	1,422	57%	1%	28%				5%	–	18%	–	–	2%	6.5%		31%	4%	–	4.5%
OpinionWay	11–12 Jun 2024	1,019	–	1%	25%				3%	1%	19%	–	–	1%	9%		32%	4%	–	5%
Ifop	10–11 Jun 2024	1,089	–	1%	25%				5%	–	18%	–	0.5%	1.5%	9%		35%	4%	–	1%
				1%	11%	19%			3%	–	17%	–	<0.5%	2%	8%		34%	4%	–	1%
				1%	11%	2%	6%	13%	2%	–	16%	–	0.5%	1%	8%		35%	3.5%	–	1%
OpinionWay	10 Jun 2024	1,095	–	1%	23%				4%	2%	18%	–	–	2%	8%		33%	5%	–	4%
Harris Interactive	9–10 Jun 2024	2,340	–	3%	22%				9%	–	19%	–	–	9%			34%	4%	–	–
Ifop	12–13 Dec 2023	1,100	–	1.5%	24%				6%	–	19%	–	1%	3%	11%		28%	5%	–	1.5%
Ifop	12–13 Dec 2023	1,100	–	1%	10%	4%	9%	8%	2%	–	18%	–	1%	3%	10%		27%	6%	–	1%
Elabe	3–5 Apr 2023	1,699	–	1%	25.5%				3%	–	21.5%	–	1.5%	1%	11.5%		24.5%	4.5%	–	6%
Ifop	20–21 Mar 2023	1,094	–	1%	26%				5%	–	22%	–	1%	2%	10%		26%	5%	–	2%
Ifop	20–21 Mar 2023	1,094	–	1%	11%	3%	9%	7%	3%	–	21%	–	1%	1%	10%		26%	5%	–	2%
Harris Interactive	3–7 Mar 2023	2,108	–	1%	24%				6%	–	24%	1%	1%	3%	10%		22%	4%	–	4%
Cluster17	4–6 Nov 2022	2,096	56.9%	1.5%	24.5%				3%	1%^{[lower-alpha 7]}	25%	0.5%	2%	2%	10.5%		20%	5%	1%	4%
Ifop	2–4 Nov 2022	1,396	–	1.5%	25%				4%	–	27%	–	0.5%	2%	11%		21%	5.5%	–	2.5%
Ifop	2–4 Nov 2022	1,396	–	1.5%	11%	3%	7%	8%	2%	–	26%	–	0%	3%	11%		21%	5%	–	1.5%
Ministry of the Interior (Le Monde)	12 Jun 2022	—	47.51%	1.17% (1.19%)	25.66% (26.16%)				3.70% (3.30%)	2.67% (–)	25.75% (25.80%)	1.25% (1.30%)	1.13% (1.21%)	2.33% (1.92%)	11.29% (11.30%)		18.68% (18.68%)	4.24% (4.25%)	1.28% (1.09%)	0.85% (3.80%)

Seat projections

Even though polls since the publication of the official list of candidates by the Ministry of the Interior ask about the specific candidates within each constituency, seat projections should be treated with a significant level of precaution due to their numerous sources of uncertainty which include but are not limited to:

the large historical error associated with these seat projections outside of the margins of uncertainty reported by pollsters;
the fact that the legislative election is based on two rounds of voting with 577 varying configurations of candidates in different constituencies, rather than a national party list vote;
the number of constituencies with second rounds featuring more than two candidates (due to the threshold of 12.5% of registered voters to appear in the second round);
the need to make inferences about first-to-second round vote transfers between candidates based on historical voting patterns;
the fact that only residents of metropolitan France are usually surveyed, excluding constituencies of overseas France and constituencies for French residents overseas;
the unpredictability of eliminated candidates' voting instructions in the aftermath of the first round and candidate withdrawals in constituencies with three or more candidates advancing to the second round; and
the fact that these projections are agnostic to local factors such as the strength of specific incumbent deputies because they are not made on a constituency-by-constituency basis (and no national polls have a large enough sample size to detect such anomalies), and are instead based on simulations using the aforementioned inferences on the basis of national-level polling with a representative sample in terms of gender, age, region, urbanicity, and socio-economic status (among other variables) projected onto each constituency.

Due to these uncertainties, certain polling institutes opt not to release seat projections alongside topline voting intention figures prior to the first round, and only publish such projections after the results of that initial voting is known.^{[lower-alpha 8]}

These seat projections are not subject to the same regulations of the national polling committee as regular voting intention polls are.^{[lower-alpha 9]}

The precautions above also apply to the estimations released by pollsters at 20:00 CEST on the day of the first round, though may be slightly more reliable due to asking about several second-round hypotheses based on large number of survey interviews conducted in the hours just prior to the day of the vote. As with the vote percentage estimations after the first round, seat projections produced after the second round made by various pollsters are not traditional exit polls, but are instead based on the level of turnout reported and first set of ballots counted at polling stations which close an hour or two earlier.^{[lower-alpha 1]} At least 289 seats are needed for an absolute majority.

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout	NFP				DVG	ENS			DVC	DVD	LR (CNI)^{[lower-alpha 2]}	RN and allies		DSV	Others

				LFI	PCF	LE	PS		RE	MoDem	HOR				LR (UXD)^{[lower-alpha 3]}	RN

Ministry of the Interior	7 Jul 2024	—	66.63%	180				12	159			6	27	39	17	125	0	12
Elabe	7 Jul 2024	20:00 CEST est.	67.1%	175–205				11–13	150–175				60–70		115–150		0–1^{[lower-alpha 4]}	10–14
Harris Interactive			67.1%	83–90	8–10	37–41	58–70	13	150–182				60–75		8–18	102–140	–	10–15
Ifop			67.5%	180–215				10	150–180			–	60–65		120–150		–	5–6
Ipsos			67.0%	68–74	10–12	32–36	63–69	13–16	95–105	31–37	24–28	6–8^{[lower-alpha 10]}	57–67		12–16	120–136	–	22–30
OpinionWay			67.0%	180–210					155–175				46–56		135–155		–	15–25
Cluster17	5 Jul 2024	1,401	–	165–195				–	130–160			–	–	30–50	170–210		–	15–30
Harris Interactive	4–5 Jul 2024	2,951	–	168–198				–	115–145			–	–	32–63	185–215		–	15–30
Ifop	3–5 Jul 2024	2,859	69%	155–185				10–18	120–150			–	50–65		170–210		–	5–15
Elabe	3–4 Jul 2024	2,005	65%	165–190					120–140			–	35–50		200–230		–	10–12
Ifop	3–4 Jul 2024	1,916	68%	170–200				–	95–125			–	25–45		210–240		–	15–27
Ipsos	3–4 Jul 2024	10,101	68%	58–68	7–9	29–37	51–61	14–16	78–94	23–31	17–23	6–8^{[lower-alpha 10]}	57–67		18–24	157–181	–	8–12
Odoxa	3–4 Jul 2024	952	–	140–180					115–155			–	40–60		210–250		–	10–20
OpinionWay	3–4 Jul 2024	3,355	–	145–175				–	130–162			–	38–50		205–230		–	8–12
OpinionWay	3–4 Jul 2024	–	–	150–180				–	125–155			–	38–50		205–230		–	8–12
Harris Interactive	2–3 Jul 2024	3,008	–	159–183				–	110–135			–	–	30–50	190–220		–	17–31
Elabe	30 Jun 2024	Most recent est.	–	120–140				11–12	90–125				35–45		255–295		0–1^{[lower-alpha 4]}	10–14
Harris Interactive				140–190					70–120				30–50		30–45	210–260	0–2^{[lower-alpha 11]}	10–20
Ifop				180–200				–	60–90			–	30–50		240–270		–	13–21
Ipsos				58–72	6–12	28–38	33–43	11–19	53–71	13–19	4–10	–	41–61		26–36	204–244	–	22–30
OpinionWay				130–170					65–105				30–50		250–300		–	24–30
Harris Interactive	27–28 Jun 2024	2,182	–	120–150				–	80–130			–	–	30–50	20–35	220–260	0–2	10–20
Ifop	25–28 Jun 2024	2,824	–	170–200				10–18	70–100			–	30–60		225–265^{[lower-alpha 12]}		–	1–5
Elabe	26–27 Jun 2024	1,871	–	155–175					85–105			–	30–40		260–295		–	8–10
Odoxa	26–27 Jun 2024	1,896	–	150–190					70–110			–	15–45		265–305		–	–
Cluster17	25–27 Jun 2024	2,465	–	180–220				–	65–110			–	–	25–35	210–255		–	20–30
Ifop	24–27 Jun 2024	2,823	–	180–210				5–9	75–110			–	25–50		220–260^{[lower-alpha 13]}		–	6–10
Harris Interactive	25–26 Jun 2024	2,014	–	125–155				–	75–125			–	–	30–50	20–35	230–270	0–2	10–20
Ifop	22–26 Jun 2024	2,343	–	180–210				5–9	75–110			–	23–50		220–260^{[lower-alpha 13]}		–	5–9
Ifop	21–25 Jun 2024	2,335	–	180–210				5–9	75–110			–	25–50		220–260^{[lower-alpha 13]}		–	4–8
Cluster17	22–24 Jun 2024	2,470	–	180–230				–	65–100			–	–	25–40	210–250		–	20–30
Harris Interactive	21–24 Jun 2024	2,044	–	150–180				–	85–130			–	–	30–50	15–30	215–245	0–2	10–20
Ifop	20–24 Jun 2024	1,843	–	185–215				6–10	70–100			–	30–50		220–260^{[lower-alpha 13]}		–	3–7
Ifop	19–22 Jun 2024	1,853	–	180–210				7–11	75–105			–	40–60		210–250^{[lower-alpha 13]}		–	3–8
Elabe	19–21 Jun 2024	1,870	–	150–170					90–110			–	35–45		250–280		–	10–12
Ifop	18–21 Jun 2024	2,317	–	180–210				8–12	80–110			–	40–60		200–240^{[lower-alpha 13]}		–	5–10
Harris Interactive	19–20 Jun 2024	2,004	–	135–165				–	95–130			–	–	30–50	15–30	220–250	0–2	10–20
Odoxa	19–20 Jun 2024	1,861	–	160–210					70–120			–	10–50		250–300		–	–
Cluster17	17–19 Jun 2024	2,654	–	190–240				–	70–100			–	–	20–30	200–250		–	20–30
Cluster17	11–13 Jun 2024	2,764	–	190–235				10–14	70–100			–	–	23–35		195–245	–	10–16
Elabe	11–12 Jun 2024	1,422	–	150–190					90–130			–	30–40			220–270	–	10–20
Harris-Interactive	9–10 Jun 2024	2,340	–	115–145				–	125–155			–	40–55			235–265	0–2	5–20
Ipsos (for LR)	8–13 Dec 2023	4,000	–	55–79				20–22	117–165			3	7–8	44–60		243–305	–	10–11
Elabe	3–5 Apr 2023	1,699	–	150–180				15–20	130–155				60–75			150–175	1–2	12–15
Harris-Interactive	3–7 Mar 2023	2,108	–	158–168					234–244				69–79			91–100		8–14
Ministry of the Interior (Le Monde)	19 Jun 2022	—	46.23%	131 (142)				22 (13)	245 (246)			4 (5)	74 (73)			89 (89)	1 (1)	11 (8)

By second round configuration

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout	NFP (any party)				NFP (depends on party)	ENS	LR (CNI)^{[lower-alpha 2]}	RN	Abs./blank/ null vote/ don't know

				LFI	PCF	LE	PS

CSA	4 Jul 2024	1,009	–	32%	–	–	–	–	–	–	41%	27%
OpinionWay	3–4 Jul 2024	693	64%	36%					34%	–	30%	–
		860	62%	47%					–	–	53%	–
		813	63%	–	–	–	–	–	52%	–	48%	–
Ifop	1–2 Jul 2024	1,118	–	42%	–	–	–	–	58%	–	–	–
				50%	–	–	–	–	–	–	50%	–
				–	–	48%		–	52%	–	–	–
				–	–	53%		–	–	–	47%	–
				–	–	–	–	–	53%	–	47%	–
				–	–	–	–	–	–	56%	44%	–
Ipsos	27–28 Jun 2024	10,286	–	32%	–	–	–	–	–	–	41%	27%
				–	–	38%	–	–	–	–	41%	21%
				–	–	–	40%	–	–	–	39%	21%
OpinionWay	21–24 Jun 2024	3,040	–	26%					29%	–	–	45%
				33%					–	–	40%	27%
				–	–	–	–	–	29%	–	34%	37%
Odoxa	26–27 Jun 2024	1,005	–	25%				9%	–	–	38%	28%
Odoxa	26–27 Jun 2024	1,005	–	17%				10%	21%	–	34%	18%
OpinionWay	17–18 Jun 2024	1,044	–	33%					–	–	41%	26%
OpinionWay	17–18 Jun 2024	1,044	–	–	–	–	–	–	40%	–	37%	23%

By first round vote

NFP–ENS–RN

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	First round vote		NFP/DVG	ENS	RN/UXD	None of these
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	First round vote					None of these
Elabe	3–4 Jul 2024	2,005		NFP/DVG	87%	3%	1%	9%
				ENS	2%	83%	0%	15%
				RN/UXD	1%	1%	87%	11%
OpinionWay	3–4 Jul 2024	693		NFP/DVG	96%	1%	2%	1%
				ENS	9%	86%	0%	5%
				LR/DVD	5%	18%	60%	17%
				RN/UXD	1%	1%	98%	0%

NFP–RN

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	First round vote		NFP/DVG	RN/UXD	None of these
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	First round vote				None of these
Elabe	3–4 Jul 2024	2,005		NFP/DVG	86%	3%	11%
				ENS	32%	18%	50%
				RN/UXD	1%	92%	7%
OpinionWay	3–4 Jul 2024	860		NFP/DVG	98%	0%	2%
				ENS	48%	16%	36%
				LR/DVD	18%	51%	31%
				RN/UXD	0%	99%	1%

LFI–ENS

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	First round vote		LFI	ENS	None of these
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	First round vote				None of these
Ifop	1–2 Jul 2024	1,118		NFP/DVG	88%	12%	–
				ENS	10%	90%	–
				LR/DVD	23%	77%	–
				RN/UXD	25%	75%	–

LFI–RN

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	First round vote		LFI	RN/UXD	None of these
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	First round vote				None of these
CSA	4 Jul 2024	1,009		NFP/DVG	87%	5%	8%
				ENS	37%	13%	50%
				LR/DVD	15%	38%	47%
				RN/UXD	0%	98%	2%
Ifop	1–2 Jul 2024	1,118		NFP/DVG	98%	2%	–
				ENS	66%	34%	–
				LR/DVD	41%	59%	–
				RN/UXD	2%	98%	–

PS/LE–ENS

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	First round vote		PS/LE	ENS	None of these
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	First round vote				None of these
Ifop	1–2 Jul 2024	1,118		NFP/DVG	94%	6%	–
				ENS	14%	86%	–
				LR/DVD	31%	69%	–
				RN/UXD	29%	71%	–

PS/LE–RN

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	First round vote		PS/LE	RN/UXD	None of these
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	First round vote				None of these
Ifop	1–2 Jul 2024	1,118		NFP/DVG	95%	5%	–
				ENS	77%	23%	–
				LR/DVD	52%	48%	–
				RN/UXD	2%	98%	–

ENS–RN

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	First round vote		ENS	RN/UXD	None of these
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	First round vote				None of these
Elabe	3–4 Jul 2024	2,005		NFP/DVG	62%	6%	32%
				ENS	81%	8%	11%
				RN/UXD	2%	88%	10%
OpinionWay	3–4 Jul 2024	813		NFP/DVG	56%	17%	27%
				ENS	93%	5%	2%
				LR/DVD	56%	40%	4%
				RN/UXD	2%	97%	1%
Ifop	1–2 Jul 2024	1,118		NFP/DVG	84%	16%	–
				ENS	92%	8%	–
				LR/DVD	57%	43%	–
				RN/UXD	3%	97%	–

LR–RN

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	First round vote		LR/DVD	RN/UXD	None of these
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	First round vote				None of these
Elabe	3–4 Jul 2024	2,005		NFP/DVG	57%	5%	38%
				LR/DVD	90%	2%	8%
				RN/UXD	1%	87%	12%
Ifop	1–2 Jul 2024	1,118		NFP/DVG	87%	13%	–
				ENS	90%	10%	–
				LR/DVD	81%	19%	–
				RN/UXD	5%	95%	–

By constituency

Because the configuration of the second round, if any, is contingent on the level of turnout in the first round, only the top-placed candidate is highlighted in first-round polls below.

Alpes-Maritimes's 1st

First round

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Alain Langouet LO	Olivier Salerno NFP–LFI	Graig Monetti ENS–HOR	Lalla Chama Ben Moulay ÉAC	Virgile Vanier-Guérin LR (CNI)	Éric Ciotti LR (UXD)	Jean-Claude Wahid Spach DG	Maxime Bovis SE
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
Ministry of the Interior	30 Jun 2024	—	0.62%	26.62%	22.79%	2.81%	5.78%	41.04%	0.27%	0.07%
Ifop	25–27 Jun 2024	543	0.5%	26%	22%	3%	5.5%	42%	0.5%	0.5%

Second round

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Olivier Salerno NFP–LFI	Graig Monetti ENS–HOR	Éric Ciotti LR (UXD)
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
Ministry of the Interior	7 Jul 2024	—	32.13%	22.73%	45.14%
Ifop	25–27 Jun 2024	543	27%	27%	46%
Ifop	25–27 Jun 2024	543	40%	–	60%

Calvados's 6th

Second round

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Élisabeth Borne ENS–RE	Nicolas Calbrix RN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
Ministry of the Interior	7 Jul 2024	—	56.36%	43.64%
Ifop	2–3 Jul 2024	611	54%	46%

Lot-et-Garonne's 3rd

First round

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Bernadette Gasc LO	Xavier Czapla NFP–LFI	Jérôme Cahuzac DVG	Guillaume Lepers LR (CNI)	Annick Cousin RN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
Ministry of the Interior	30 Jun 2024	—	1.01%	18.36%	14.56%	24.99%	41.08%
Ifop	24–26 Jun 2024	561	1%	19%	23%	19%	38%

Second round

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Xavier Czapla NFP–LFI	Jérôme Cahuzac DVG	Guillaume Lepers LR (CNI)	Annick Cousin RN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
Ministry of the Interior	7 Jul 2024	—	–	–	54.13%	45.87%
Ifop	24–26 Jun 2024	561	22%	31%	–	47%
Ifop	24–26 Jun 2024	561	–	49%	–	51%

Nord's 10th

First round

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Christophe Charlon LO	Leslie Mortreux NFP–REV	Gérald Darmanin ENS–RE	Jérôme Garcia LR	Bastien Verbrugghe RN	Gustave Viguie-Desplaces REC	Marcelin Brazon Résistons!
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
Ministry of the Interior	30 Jun 2024	—	1.10%	24.83%	36.03%	2.98%	34.31%	0.51%	0.25%
Ifop	18–20 Jun 2024	602	1.5%	24%	42%	2.5%	28%	1%	1%

Second round

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Leslie Mortreux NFP–REV	Gérald Darmanin ENS–RE	Bastien Verbrugghe RN
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
Ministry of the Interior	7 Jul 2024	—	–	61.37%	38.63%
Ifop	18–20 Jun 2024	602	–	65%	35%
Ifop	18–20 Jun 2024	602	27%	44%	29%

Seine-Saint-Denis's 7th

First round

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Aurélie Jochaud LO	Elsa Caudron NPA	Yannick Duterte PRCF	Sabrina Ali Benali NFP–LFI	Alexis Corbière LFI diss.	Éric Verhaeghe AC	Pauline Breteau ENS–HOR	Antoine Toche DVD	Françoise Trova RN	Sébastien Atlani SE
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
Ministry of the Interior	30 Jun 2024	—	0.63%	0.30%	0.33%	36.38%	40.19%	0.95%	10.06%	1.31%	9.69%	0.14%
Ifop	25–26 Jun 2024	550	1%	0%	1%	35%	40%	1.5%	10%	1.5%	10%	0%

Second round

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Sabrina Ali Benali NFP–LFI	Alexis Corbière LFI diss.
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
Ministry of the Interior	7 Jul 2024	—	42.84%	57.16%
Ifop	25–26 Jun 2024	550	46%	54%

Notes and references

1 2 "Comment les instituts de sondage estiment les résultats des élections législatives dès 20 heures". Le Monde. 12 June 2022. Retrieved 27 June 2024.
1 2 3 Candidates presented by the national investiture commission of The Republicans (French: Commission nationale d'investiture des Républicains)
1 2
UXD, union of the far-right (French: union de l'extrême droite) is the electoral nuance assigned by the Ministry of the Interior to the 63 (initially 62) LR members invested as candidates supported by Éric Ciotti and the RN:
- "Publication des candidatures et des résultats aux élections". Ministère de l'Intérieur.
- Guez, Ariel (17 June 2024). "Législatives: au moins 62 candidats soutenus par Éric Ciotti et le RN, près de 400 par Les Républicains". BFMTV. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
None of these 63 candidates are outgoing deputies in the National Assembly except for Ciotti and Christelle d'Intorni. All other outgoing LR deputies were reinvested separately due to the expulsion vote against Ciotti:
- Barbarit, Simon (17 June 2024). "Alliance Ciotti Bardella : que sait-on des candidats investis pour les législatives ?". Public Sénat. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
- "Législatives : LR investit tous ses députés sortants, sauf Éric Ciotti et une de ses proches". Le Parisien. Agence France-Presse. 12 June 2024. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
1 2 3 4 5 Including miscellaneous far-right candidates
↑ Grouped with Reconquête
↑ Includes sovereignist right
↑
Animalist Party, which is not officially presenting candidates in the 2024 legislative elections:
- Avot, Céline (17 June 2024). "Législatives 2024. Pas de candidat pour le Parti animaliste dans la 2e circonscription de la Manche". Ouest-France. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
↑ Rougerie, Paméla (22 June 2024). "Législatives : tendances, projections de sièges… Comment les instituts conçoivent leurs sondages". Le Parisien. Retrieved 25 June 2024.
↑ "Communiqué de la commission des sondages du 18 juin 2024 au sujet des sondages électoraux relatifs aux élections législatives 2024 et aux projections en sièges". La commission des sondages. 18 June 2024. Retrieved 27 June 2024.
1 2 Including UDI
↑ Includes Reconquête
↑ Including 20–25 seats for the union of the far-right of pro-Éric Ciotti candidates of The Republicans supported by the National Rally
1 2 3 4 5 6 Including 10–20 seats for the union of the far-right of pro-Éric Ciotti candidates of The Republicans supported by the National Rally

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[estimations-1] 1 2 "Comment les instituts de sondage estiment les résultats des élections législatives dès 20 heures". Le Monde. 12 June 2022. Retrieved 27 June 2024.

[CNI-2] 1 2 3 Candidates presented by the national investiture commission of The Republicans (French: Commission nationale d'investiture des Républicains)

[UXD-3] 1 2 UXD, union of the far-right (French: union de l'extrême droite) is the electoral nuance assigned by the Ministry of the Interior to the 63 (initially 62) LR members invested as candidates supported by Éric Ciotti and the RN:
"Publication des candidatures et des résultats aux élections". Ministère de l'Intérieur.
Guez, Ariel (17 June 2024). "Législatives: au moins 62 candidats soutenus par Éric Ciotti et le RN, près de 400 par Les Républicains". BFMTV. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
None of these 63 candidates are outgoing deputies in the National Assembly except for Ciotti and Christelle d'Intorni. All other outgoing LR deputies were reinvested separately due to the expulsion vote against Ciotti:
Barbarit, Simon (17 June 2024). "Alliance Ciotti Bardella : que sait-on des candidats investis pour les législatives ?". Public Sénat. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
"Législatives : LR investit tous ses députés sortants, sauf Éric Ciotti et une de ses proches". Le Parisien. Agence France-Presse. 12 June 2024. Retrieved 20 June 2024.

[mwDa4] "Publication des candidatures et des résultats aux élections". Ministère de l'Intérieur.

[mwDbM] Guez, Ariel (17 June 2024). "Législatives: au moins 62 candidats soutenus par Éric Ciotti et le RN, près de 400 par Les Républicains". BFMTV. Retrieved 20 June 2024.

[mwDbw] Barbarit, Simon (17 June 2024). "Alliance Ciotti Bardella : que sait-on des candidats investis pour les législatives ?". Public Sénat. Retrieved 20 June 2024.

[mwDcU] "Législatives : LR investit tous ses députés sortants, sauf Éric Ciotti et une de ses proches". Le Parisien. Agence France-Presse. 12 June 2024. Retrieved 20 June 2024.

[Elabe-4] 1 2 3 4 5 Including miscellaneous far-right candidates

[5] Grouped with Reconquête

[6] Includes sovereignist right

[7] Animalist Party, which is not officially presenting candidates in the 2024 legislative elections:
Avot, Céline (17 June 2024). "Législatives 2024. Pas de candidat pour le Parti animaliste dans la 2e circonscription de la Manche". Ouest-France. Retrieved 21 June 2024.

[mwDeU] Avot, Céline (17 June 2024). "Législatives 2024. Pas de candidat pour le Parti animaliste dans la 2e circonscription de la Manche". Ouest-France. Retrieved 21 June 2024.

[8] Rougerie, Paméla (22 June 2024). "Législatives : tendances, projections de sièges… Comment les instituts conçoivent leurs sondages". Le Parisien. Retrieved 25 June 2024.

[9] "Communiqué de la commission des sondages du 18 juin 2024 au sujet des sondages électoraux relatifs aux élections législatives 2024 et aux projections en sièges". La commission des sondages. 18 June 2024. Retrieved 27 June 2024.

[UDI-10] 1 2 Including UDI

[11] Includes Reconquête

[12] Including 20–25 seats for the union of the far-right of pro-Éric Ciotti candidates of The Republicans supported by the National Rally

[UXD10_20-13] 1 2 3 4 5 6 Including 10–20 seats for the union of the far-right of pro-Éric Ciotti candidates of The Republicans supported by the National Rally

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v t e 2024 French legislative election
Metropolitan France	Ain Aisne Allier Alpes-de-Haute-Provence Hautes-Alpes Alpes-Maritimes Ardèche Ardennes Ariège Aube Aude Aveyron Bouches-du-Rhône Calvados Cantal Charente Charente-Martime Cher Corrèze Corse-du-Sud Haute-Corse Côte-d'Or Côtes-d'Armor Creuse Dordogne Doubs Drôme Eure Eure-et-Loir Finistère Gard Haute-Garonne Gers Gironde Hérault Ille-et-Vilaine Indre Indre-et-Loire Isère Jura Landes Loir-et-Cher Loire Haute-Loire Loire-Atlantique Loiret Lot Lot-et-Garonne Lozère Maine-et-Loire Manche Marne Haute-Marne Mayenne Merthe-et-Moselle Meuse Morbihan Moselle Nièvre Nord Oise Orne Pas-de-Calais Puy-de-Dôme Pyrénées-Atlantiques Hautes-Pyrénées Pyrénées-Orientales Bas-Rhin Haut-Rhin Rhône Haute-Saône Saône-et-Loire Sarthe Savoie Haute-Savoie Paris Seine-Maritime Seine-et-Marne Yvelines Deux-Sèvres Somme Tarn Tarn-et-Garonne Var Vacluse Vendée Vienne Haute-Vienne Vosges Yonne Territoire de Belfort Essonne Hauts-de-Seine Seine-Saint-Denis Val-de-Marne Val-d'Oise
Overseas France	Guadeloupe Martinique Guyane La Réunion Mayotte New Caledonia French Polynesia Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin Saint-Pierre and Miquelon Wallis and Futuna
Citizens Living Abroad	French citizens living abroad
Alliances	Union of the Far-Right (The Republicans crisis) Ensemble (political coalition) New Popular Front
Deputies not running for re-election Deputies who lost their seats Deputies who were elected in the first round Deputies elected New deputies Results by constituency Results by department Results by region Results of cabinet ministers Polling By-elections

Opinion polling for the 2024 French legislative election

Contents

National polling

Graphical summary

First round

Seat projections

By second round configuration

By first round vote

NFP–ENS–RN

NFP–RN

LFI–ENS

LFI–RN

PS/LE–ENS

PS/LE–RN

ENS–RN

LR–RN

By constituency

Alpes-Maritimes's 1st

First round

Second round

Calvados's 6th

Second round

Lot-et-Garonne's 3rd

First round

Second round

Nord's 10th

First round

Second round

Seine-Saint-Denis's 7th

First round

Second round

See also

Notes and references

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