2020 North Carolina's 11th congressional district election

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2020 North Carolina's 11th congressional district election
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North Carolina's 11th congressional district
  Madison Cawthorn 117th U.S Congress (cropped less).jpg Morris Davis - Official bio pic (2) (cropped).jpg
Nominee Madison Cawthorn Moe Davis
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote245,351190,609
Percentage54.5%42.4%
U.S. Representative before election

Vacant

Elected U.S. Representative

Madison Cawthorn
Republican

The 2020 congressional election in North Carolina's 11th congressional district was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, to determine the next representative to the United States House of Representatives from the 11th district. On December 19, 2019, incumbent representative Mark Meadows announced his retirement and was appointed White House Chief of Staff on March 30, 2020, leaving the seat vacant. [1]

Contents

On March 3, 2020, Super Tuesday, the primary for the 11th district was held along with the state of North Carolina at large. Moe Davis was declared the winner of the Democratic primary while no one reached 30% in the Republican primary, triggering a runoff between the top two finishers, Lynda Bennett and Madison Cawthorn. The runoff was held on June 23, 2020, with Cawthorn being declared the winner. [2]

Background and redistricting

Previously North Carolina's 11th congressional district was considered to be one of the most competitive in the Country. Up until 2013, the district was held by Democrat Heath Shuler, one of the leaders of the Blue Dog Coalition, a prominent conservative Democrat House caucus, and former quarterback for the Tennessee Volunteers. In 2011, the Republican-controlled state legislature, under Senator Phil Berger, the North Carolina congressional districts were redistricted. Under the new map, NC-11 was redistricted to where Asheville, a heavily Democratic area, was split in half in what many consider to be a gerrymander. The North Carolina foothills were also added to the district shifting the district to a Cook PVI of R+14. [3] [4] Shuler did not run for reelection in 2012 and Mark Meadows won the election. [5]

In November 2019, new congressional districts were drawn for the state. After review by North Carolina judges in December, a new map was mandated to be used for the 2020 elections, which includes the western part of Rutherford County and all of these counties: Avery, Buncombe, Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Haywood, Henderson, Jackson, Macon, Madison, McDowell, Mitchell, Polk, Swain, Transylvania, and Yancey. [6] [7] At the time of the election, the district still leaned Republican, going to Trump by 17 points and McCrory by 6, but far more competitive than before.

On December 19, 2019, Mark Meadows announced his retirement from the House of Representatives, leaving the seat vacant, with the filing deadline only being two days away. [1] Over the next 48 hours, a dozen Republicans filed to run for the seat, leaving one of the largest non-jungle primaries of the 2020 election cycle. [8]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Lynda Bennett (R)
Executive officials
Federal officials
Organizations

Results

Both the Republican and Democratic primaries for North Carolina's 11th congressional district took place on March 3, 2020. Because no one reached 30% in the Republican primary, a runoff was triggered. The runoff election was held on June 23, 2020. [2]

Republican primary results [16]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Lynda Bennett 20,606 22.7
Republican Madison Cawthorn 18,481 20.4
Republican Jim Davis 17,46519.3
Republican Chuck Archerd8,2729.1
Republican Wayne King7,8768.7
Republican Dan Driscoll7,8038.6
Republican Joey Osborne6,4707.1
Republican Vance Patterson2,2422.5
Republican Matthew Burril5230.6
Republican Albert Wiley Jr.3930.4
Republican Dillon Gentry3900.4
Republican Steve Fekete Jr.1750.2
Total votes90,696 100.0
Republican primary runoff results [16]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Madison Cawthorn 30,636 65.8
Republican Lynda Bennett15,90534.2
Total votes46,541 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

  • Heath Shuler, former U.S. representative for North Carolina's 11th congressional district (2007–2013) [21]

Results

Democratic primary results [22]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Moe Davis 52,983 47.3
Democratic Gina Collias25,38722.7
Democratic Phillip Price12,62011.3
Democratic Michael O'Shea12,52311.2
Democratic Steve Woodsmall8,4397.5
Total votes111,952 100.0

General election

The general election for North Carolina's 11th congressional district was held on November 3, 2020, between Moe Davis and Madison Cawthorn. Most pundits, as of July, saw the race as a safely Republican seat. However, recent internal polling from the Moe Davis campaign has brought many to believe the race was more competitive than previously thought. [23]

Candidates

Endorsements

Moe Davis (D)
Organizations
Madison Cawthorn (R)
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Madison
Cawthorn (R)		Moe
Davis (D)		Other/
Undecided
EMC Research (D) Archived October 16, 2020, at the Wayback Machine [lower-alpha 2] September 22–24, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%42%46%–
DCCC Targeting & Analytics Department (D) [lower-alpha 3] August 5–6, 2020500± 4.4%46%41%13% [lower-alpha 4]
EMC Research (D) Archived August 15, 2020, at the Wayback Machine [lower-alpha 2] July 9–12, 2020402± 4.9%42%40%–

Analysis

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [29] Likely RAugust 14, 2020
Inside Elections [30] Safe RJune 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [31] Likely RSeptember 3, 2020
Politico [32] Safe RJuly 6, 2020
Daily Kos [33] Likely RAugust 31, 2020
RCP [34] Safe RJune 9, 2020
Niskanen [35] Safe RJune 7, 2020

Results

2020 North Carolina's 11th congressional district election [36]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Madison Cawthorn 245,351 54.50% −4.71%
Democratic Moe Davis 190,60942.34%+3.59%
Libertarian Tracey DeBruhl8,6821.93%−0.11%
Green Tamara Zwinak5,5031.22%N/A
Total votes450,145 100.0%
Republican hold
By county
County [37] Madison Cawthorn
Republican 		Moe Davis
Democratic 		Tracey DeBruhl
Libertarian 		Tamara Zwinak
Green 		MarginTotal votes
#%#%#%#%#%
Avery 7,01076.151,95621.251301.411101.195,05454.909,206
Buncombe 60,42937.9592,93858.373,4822.192,3761.49-32,509-20.42159,225
Cherokee 12,39176.203,43321.112491.531871.158,95855.0916,260
Clay 4,92872.751,66524.581181.74630.933,26348.176,774
Graham 3,52277.1095120.82681.49270.592,57156.284,568
Haywood 22,06760.9613,02635.987101.963981.109,04124.9736,201
Henderson 39,98258.9425,95838.261,2051.786951.0214,02420.6767,840
Jackson 11,10252.399,28343.804742.243331.571,8198.5821,192
Macon 13,95368.016,05829.533001.462061.007,89538.4820,517
Madison 7,61858.964,88337.792742.121461.132,73521.1712,921
McDowell 16,32971.935,70825.144171.842461.0810,62146.7922,700
Mitchell 6,86876.911,86220.851341.50660.745,00656.068,930
Polk 7,51461.764,36835.901691.391150.953,14625.8612,166
Rutherford (part)9,15568.983,75828.312141.611451.095,39740.6613,272
Swain 3,94656.902,71739.181822.62901.301,22917.726,935
Transylvania 11,32156.138,24840.893901.932111.053,07315.2320,170
Yancey 7,21664.043,79733.701661.47890.793,41930.3411,268
Totals245,35154.50190,60942.348,6821.935,5031.2254,74212.16450,145

Controversies

Ads in the Republican primary falsely portrayed an audio clip of Lynda Bennett to suggest she was a Never-Trumper, when the full clip showed she was mocking the movement. [38] The Protect Freedom PAC continued to spend $500,000 on ads that largely repeated what Bennett said was a lie and which the PAC admitted they knew was false. [38]

On October 3, 2020, Madison Cawthorn commented "Chill the f*@# out" comment to a person with disabilities who contacted him through social media. John Hart, Cawthorn's campaign spokesman, said Cawthorn is "passionately opposed to identity politics in all its forms whether it seeks to categorize people by race, gender, disability, etc. He understands there is a diversity of views in the disability community, and many other communities, and he rejects the notion we have to conform to a particular perspective. He isn't seeking to deliver a message as much as he wants to be an example of how a person can endure a tremendous tragedy and loss and find renewed meaning and purpose." [39]

On August 26, 2020, Cawthorn travelled to the border to defend construction of the wall. “Sure, there are children being human-trafficked across our border north into our country for sex slavery and many things that are unspeakable and terrible to think of, but what's really going on is we are having a large group of cartels coming into our country, kidnapping our American children and then taking them to sell them on a slave market, on the sex slave market. Tens of thousands of our children are going missing every year and it's because of cartels like MS-13 coming into our country and doing harm.” Cawthorn did not provide the source of his information or respond to questions about why he went to the border wall some 1,500 miles from his district, who paid his expenses, or how he knew the organizers. [40] Cawthorn states "North Carolina, as a whole, is ranked sixth in kidnappings nationwide." [41] The 2018 Amber Alert Report for the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children ranks North Carolina sixth (or 4% of total = 161) with seven amber alerts. [42] In 2018, the Haywood County Sheriff's Office in North Carolina canceled an AMBER Alert for a missing one-year-old boy Thursday night just over an hour after the alert was issued. [43] North Carolina has a total of 50 Amber Alerts from 2013 through 2018.

On August 10, 2020, an article was released by left-wing magazine Jezebel presenting Cawthorn's past described by the article as disturbing. The article mainly discussed how Cawthorn visited the Kehlsteinhaus (Eagle's Nest) in Bavaria, Germany, and posted photos of his visit on Instagram. Many saw these posts as alarming because of his descriptions of the location as being on his "bucket list." Critics of Cawthorn insist the images were in bad faith, citing the facial expressions and gestures of Cawthorn and his friend depicted in the images. [44] [45] In addition, the article indicates Cawthorn was rejected by the United States Naval Academy before the accident. Cawthorn stated throughout the campaign his reasoning behind him not going to the Naval Academy was the April 2014 car accident. Details of Cawthorn's business, SPQR Holdings LLC, were brought up as well. The business was created in August 2019, and has since only purchased a six-acre property in Georgia. The article does not mention any sold properties. Many Cawthorn critics have cited how Cawthorn describes himself as a successful businessman, despite supposedly having little business experience. [44] [45]

On August 14, 2020, Cawthorn was accused of sexually harassing via an Instagram post. The accuser was Henderson County resident Katrina Krulikas who stated in the post that in 2014, Cawthorn attempted to kiss her and make sexual gestures towards her without her consent. [46] Over the next few days two more accusers came forward. One accuser named Francesca McDaniel claimed Cawthorn forcibly kissed her and grabbed her thigh on the way to a party. When trying to leave, Cawthorn locked the doors and forced her to come to the party even after the incident. A third anonymous woman claims that while Cawthorn attended Patrick Henry College, during a community chapel session, Cawthorn reached under her skirt and grabbed her thigh. [47]

On March 17, 2020, Cawthorn's financial disclosure report does not include 2018, 2019, and 2020 earned income, position, agreements, and compensation in excess of $5,000 paid by one source. The completed form is digitally signed and includes a checked box that statements made "are true, complete, and correct to the best of my knowledge and belief." [48] On October 5, 2020, Cawthorn is quoted "I hold my own company. I've been an investor, a public speaker, so I feel like that's pretty good diverse amount of work experience." [49] Moe Davis raised the issue to Madison Cawthorn that his company, position, and earned income is not on his financial disclosure form in two of the three debates.

On November 17, 2019, Moe Davis tweeted out a joke about a recent hospital visit by Donald Trump stating, "Many people are saying that @realDonaldTrump was being treated at Walter Reed for an acute case of chapped ass caused by the intense and excessive amount of kissing it's gotten from @RepMarkMeadows. Time to boot Gerrymandered Meadows and make #NC11 #MountainStrong!" This comment drew criticism from opponents who called it immature for a congressional candidate to make. [50]

Notes

  1. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. 1 2 Poll conducted for the Davis campaign.
  3. ↑ Poll conducted by the DCCC.
  4. ↑ "Other candidates" with 6% and Undecided with 7%

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  1. 1 2 3 Lesniewski, Niels; McPherson, Lindsey (March 30, 2020). "Rep. Mark Meadows resigns to become White House chief of staff". Roll Call. Retrieved August 13, 2020.
  2. 1 2 Vaillancourt, Cory (June 24, 2020). "Republicans reject Trump-endorsed candidate in NC11 runoff". Smoky Mountain News. Retrieved August 13, 2020.
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  18. 1 2 Davis, Col Morris (November 19, 2019). ".@RepMarkMeadows chose not to serve in the military as I did for 25 years, so perhaps that explains why he doesn't understand where legal fits in a chain of command. I'll bring military experience to the Hill when I take his place and I won't be an embarrassment to #NC11". @ColMorrisDavis. Retrieved November 20, 2019.
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  38. 1 2 "The making of Madison Cawthorn: How falsehoods helped propel the career of a new pro-Trump star of the far right". Washington Post. Retrieved February 28, 2021.
  39. ↑ Boyle, John. "Boyle column: Cawthorn's 'Chill the f*@# out' comment is mind-boggling". The Asheville Citizen Times. Retrieved October 8, 2020.
  40. ↑ Lewis, Sally Kestin, Tom Fiedler and Peter H. "Madison Cawthorn mingles with fringe, disavows QAnon but repeats debunked sex slave theory". The Asheville Citizen Times. Retrieved October 8, 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  41. ↑ "Key Policies | Madison Cawthorn". Archived from the original on October 15, 2020. Retrieved October 8, 2020.
  42. ↑ "AMBER Alerts". www.missingkids.org. Retrieved October 8, 2020.
  43. ↑ "Amber Alert issued for abducted 1 year-old boy in Western North Carolina". WJHL | Tri-Cities News & Weather. June 29, 2018. Retrieved October 8, 2020.
  44. 1 2 Wang, Esther (August 10, 2020). "My Dark Journey Into the Soul of a Model Young Republican Candidate". Jezebel. Retrieved August 13, 2020.
  45. 1 2 Fiedler, Tom (August 12, 2020). "Madison Cawthorn's claim about Naval Academy creates false impression". Jezebel. Retrieved August 13, 2020.
  46. ↑ Aldona, Katrina (August 13, 2020). "katrinaaldona post August 13th, 2020". katrinaaldona. Archived from the original on December 26, 2021. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  47. ↑ Prude, Harvey (August 16, 2020). "Rising Republican star faces accusations from women". World Magazine. Archived from the original on August 25, 2020. Retrieved August 16, 2020.
  48. ↑ "Financial Disclosure Report - David Madison Cawthorn" (PDF). Clerk of the House of Representatives. 2020. Filing ID #10033653.
  49. ↑ Moon, Paul. "'I figured he would get it eventually': Cawthorn says Trump's diagnosis doesn't change his virus approach". The Asheville Citizen Times. Retrieved October 8, 2020.
  50. ↑ Sinclair, Harriet (November 18, 2019). "Col. Morris Davis Jokes Trump Visited Hospital for Acute Case of Chapping Caused by Mark Meadows Sucking Up". Newsweek. Retrieved August 13, 2020.
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