2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election

Last updated

2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election
Flag of Alaska.svg
  2020 August 16, 2022 November 2022  

Alaska's at-large congressional district
Turnout32.16% [1]
  Rep. Mary Peltola headshot (cropped) (cropped).jpg Sarah Palin by Gage Skidmore 5 (cropped).jpg Nick Begich Official Campaign Profile Photo (Cropped).jpg
Candidate Mary Peltola Sarah Palin Nick Begich III
Party Democratic Republican Republican
First round74,817
39.66%
58,339
30.92%
52,536
27.84%
Final round 91,266
51.48%
86,026
48.52%
Eliminated

2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special general election by State House district.svg
2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special general election by precinct.svg
2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special general election second round by State House district.svg
2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election results by county-equivalent.svg
Peltola:      50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Palin:      50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

U.S. Representative before election

Don Young
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Mary Peltola
Democratic

The 2022 Alaska at-large congressional district special election was held on August 16 to fill the seat left vacant after the death of Republican incumbent Don Young. [2] Mary Peltola defeated former governor Sarah Palin in the election, becoming the first Democrat to represent Alaska in the House since 1972, the first Alaska Native elected to Congress, and the first woman elected to represent Alaska in the House. [3]

Contents

The election was the first held after the passage of 2020 Alaska Measure 2, establishing a new procedure for elections. Under the new system, the top 4 candidates in a nonpartisan blanket primary advance to the general election. The general election is conducted using instant-runoff voting, a variant on traditional primaries where last-place candidates are repeatedly eliminated until only one candidate is left. Al Gross's withdrawal left only three names on the ballot in the general election.

The runoff count commenced on August 31, after all absentee and overseas ballots were counted. [4] [5] Peltola was declared the winner on August 31. [6] The Democratic victory was widely considered an upset due to Alaska's strong Republican lean. Peltola became the first Democrat to win a statewide or congressional election in Alaska since Mark Begich in 2008. [7] She was sworn in to the House of Representatives on September 13. [8]

The election generated controversy as a result of several election pathologies. The instant-runoff election produced a winner opposed by a majority of voters, [9] with both polls and analyses of the cast ballots finding that most voters preferred Nick Begich over both opponents. [10] Republican Sarah Palin played the role of spoiler by knocking out Begich in the first round. [9] [10] [11]

The election was also notable for being a participation failure, a situation where a candidate is disqualified as a result of receiving too many votes. [11] In this race, Peltola won as a result of 3% of Alaska ballots that ranked her last (after Palin and Begich). [10]

Nonpartisan blanket primary

Candidates

Advanced to general election

Withdrew after advancing to general election

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Nick Begich (R)

State legislators

Organizations

Individuals

  • Jim and Faye Palin, Sarah Palin's former father-in-law and mother-in-law. [36]
Santa Claus (I)

State legislators

Christopher Constant (D)

U.S. senators

  • Mark Begich, former United States senator (2009–2015)

State legislators

Local officials

Al Gross (I)

State officials

State legislators

Sarah Palin (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. federal legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Mary Peltola (D)

Individuals

Josh Revak (R)

Individuals

  • Anne Garland Young, Don Young's widow [42]
Tara Sweeney (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

State officials

Organizations

  • ANCSA Regional Association [43]

Debates and forums

2022 Alaska at-large special primary debates and forums
No.DateHostModeratorLinkParticipants
 P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee W  Withdrawn
Begich Coghill Constant Gross Lowenfels Palin Revak Peltola Sweeney
1 [44] May 12, 2022Alaska Chamber
Alaska Miners Association
Alaska Oil and Gas Association
Alaska Support Industry Alliance
Associated General Contractors of Alaska
Resource Development Council
N/A Youtube PPPPPPPPP

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Nick
Begich
(R)
Santa
Claus
(I)
John
Coghill
(R)
Christopher
Constant
(D)
Al
Gross
(I)
Andrew
Halcro
(I)
Jeff
Lowenfels
(I)
Sarah
Palin
(R)
Mary
Peltola
(D)
Josh
Revak
(R)
Tara
Sweeney
(R)
Adam
Wool
(D)
OtherUndecided
Alaska Survey Research May 6–9, 2022605 (LV)± 4.0%16%6%2%5%13%2%3%19%5%4%4%2%4%16%
Remington Research Group (R) April 7–9, 2022955 (LV)± 3.1%21%7%26%31%3%2%4%6%

Results

Primary election results by state house district 2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special primary election by State House district.svg
Primary election results by state house district
2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special primary election results [45]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Sarah Palin 43,601 27.01
Republican Nick Begich 30,861 19.12
Independent Al Gross [lower-alpha 2] 20,392 12.63
Democratic Mary Peltola 16,265 10.08
Republican Tara Sweeney 9,5605.92
Independent Santa Claus 7,6254.72
Democratic Christopher Constant6,2243.86
Independent Jeff Lowenfels5,9943.71
Republican John Coghill 3,8422.38
Republican Josh Revak 3,7852.34
Independent Andrew Halcro 3,0131.87
Democratic Adam Wool 2,7301.69
Democratic Emil Notti 1,7771.10
Libertarian Chris Bye1,0490.65
Democratic Mike Milligan6080.38
Independence John Howe3800.24
Independent Laurel Foster3380.21
Republican Stephen Wright3320.21
Republican Jay Armstrong2860.18
Libertarian J. R. Myers2850.18
Independent Gregg Brelsford2840.18
Democratic Ernest Thomas1990.12
Republican Bob Lyons1970.12
Republican Otto Florschutz1930.12
Republican Maxwell Sumner1330.08
Republican Clayton Trotter1210.07
Independent Anne McCabe1180.07
Republican John Callahan1140.07
Independent Arlene Carle1070.07
Independent Tim Beck960.06
Independent Sherry Mettler920.06
Republican Tom Gibbons940.06
Independent Lady Donna Dutchess870.05
American Independent Robert Ornelas830.05
Independent Ted Heintz700.04
Independent Silvio Pellegrini700.04
Independent Karyn Griffin670.04
Independent David Hughes540.03
Independent Don Knight460.03
Republican Jo Woodward440.03
Independent Jason Williams370.02
Independent Robert Brown360.02
Independent Dennis Aguayo310.02
Independent William Hibler III250.02
Republican Bradley Welter240.01
Independent David Thistle230.01
Independent Brian Beal190.01
Republican Mikel Melander170.01
Total votes161,428 100.0

General election

Under Alaska's top-four primary system, if a general election candidate drops out, the director of elections may replace them with the name of the fifth-place finisher. Shortly after the primary, Al Gross dropped out of the general election, but Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai did not advance Tara Sweeney in his place because there was less than 64 days remaining until the general election as required by law. After a lawsuit, the Alaska Supreme Court upheld Fenumiai's decision. [29]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [46] Likely RAugust 10, 2022
Inside Elections [47] Likely RAugust 4, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [48] Safe RJune 22, 2022

Endorsements

Nick Begich (R)

State legislators

Local Officials

  • Amy Demboski, Anchorage assembly member

Organizations

Individuals

  • Jim and Faye Palin, Sarah Palin's former father-in-law and mother-in-law
Sarah Palin (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. federal legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Mary Peltola (D)

U.S. federal legislators

State officials

State legislators

  • Zack Fields, state representative (2019–present)
  • Berta Gardner, former state senator (2013–2019) and representative (2005–2013)
  • Ivy Spohnholz, state representative (2016–present)

Local officials

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Tribes

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
RCV
count
Nick
Begich
(R)
Al
Gross
(I)
Sarah
Palin
(R)
Mary
Peltola
(D)
Undecided
Alaska Survey Research July 20–25, 20221,219 (LV)± 2.9%130%29%41%
255%45%
2* [lower-alpha 3] 49%51%
Alaska Survey Research July 2–5, 20221,201 (LV)± 2.9%131%29%40%
257%43%
2* [lower-alpha 3] 49%51%
June 21, 2022Gross withdraws from the race
Alaska Survey Research May 6–9, 2022605 (LV)± 4.0%129%27%26%19%
233%40%28%
354%46%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
RCV
count
Nick
Begich
(R)
Santa
Claus
(I)
Christopher
Constant
(D)
Al
Gross
(I)
Sarah
Palin
(R)
Tara
Sweeney
(R)
Undecided
Alaska Survey Research May 6–9, 2022605 (LV)± 4.0%128%21%26%25%
232%40%28%
353%47%
3* [lower-alpha 4] 53%47%
Alaska Survey Research May 6–9, 2022605 (LV)± 4.0%129%17%27%28%
232%40%28%
354%46%
Alaska Survey Research May 6–9, 2022605 (LV)± 4.0%128%35%26%11%
232%39%29%
355%45%
Al Gross vs. Sarah Palin vs. Lora Reinbold vs. Josh Revak
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
RCV
count
Al
Gross
(I)
Sarah
Palin
(R)
Lora
Reinbold
(R)
Josh
Revak
(R)
Undecided
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] March 25–29, 2022728 (LV)± 3.6%BA33%30%8%9%16%
233%30%11%26%
335%35%30%
Al Gross vs. Sarah Palin
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Al
Gross (I)
Sarah
Palin (R)
Undecided
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] March 25–29, 2022728 (LV)± 3.6%40%42%19%
Al Gross vs. Josh Revak
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Al
Gross (I)
Josh
Revak (R)
Undecided
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] March 25–29, 2022728 (LV)± 3.6%35%34%31%

Results

Preference flow 2022 Alaska-AL congressional district special election preference flow.svg
Preference flow
2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election [1] [55]
PartyCandidateFirst ChoiceRound 1Round 2
Votes %TransferVotes %TransferVotes %
Democratic Mary Peltola 74,81739.66%+98275,79940.19%+15,46791,26651.48%
Republican Sarah Palin 58,33930.92%+63458,97331.27%+27,05386,02648.52%
Republican Nick Begich52,53627.84%+1,27453,81028.53%-53,810Eliminated
Write-in 2,9741.58%-2,974Eliminated
Total votes188,666188,582177,292
Blank or inactive ballots 3,707+11,29014,997
Democratic gain from Republican
First round results by state house district
DistrictNick Begich
Republican
Sarah Palin
Republican
Mary Peltola
Democratic
Write-in Margin [lower-alpha 5] Total votes
#%#%#%#%#%
District 1 1,44833.42%1,40932.52%1,43233.05%441.02%160.37%4,333
District 297920.03%1,50430.78%2,35948.27%450.92%85517.50%4,887
District 31,52223.28%1,23518.89%3,72356.94%590.90%2,20133.66%6,539
District 41,00317.38%70112.15%4,01469.55%530.92%3,01152.17%5,771
District 592923.05%1,30132.27%1,74343.24%581.44%44210.97%4,031
District 61,92325.63%2,46832.90%3,03940.51%720.96%5717.61%7,502
District 71,67330.99%2,44845.34%1,21322.47%651.20%77514.35%5,399
District 81,86728.54%3,21649.17%1,39421.31%640.98%1,34920.62%6,541
District 92,68432.55%1,65620.08%3,72245.13%1852.24%1,03812.59%8,247
District 101,68732.11%1,37026.08%2,09939.96%971.85%4127.84%5,253
District 112,05433.11%1,50624.28%2,53740.90%1061.71%4837.79%6,203
District 121,34128.17%1,11423.40%2,22846.81%771.62%88718.63%4,760
District 131,09627.41%1,04726.18%1,79144.79%651.63%69517.38%3,999
District 141,00021.80%89719.56%2,61557.01%751.64%1,61535.21%4,587
District 151,88432.62%1,34923.36%2,43942.23%1031.78%5559.61%5,775
District 161,67127.09%1,13818.45%3,23452.43%1252.03%1,56325.34%6,168
District 1790518.96%70414.75%3,06664.25%972.03%2,16145.28%4,772
District 1829922.91%36027.59%62647.97%201.53%26620.38%1,305
District 1953620.93%52120.34%1,46557.20%391.52%92936.27%2,561
District 2088523.17%92424.19%1,96951.56%411.07%1,04527.36%3,819
District 211,52828.67%1,25623.56%2,46946.32%771.44%94117.65%5,330
District 2275530.77%68227.79%97139.57%461.87%2168.80%2,454
District 231,90932.15%1,88431.73%2,04434.43%1001.68%1352.27%5,937
District 242,19137.08%1,94532.92%1,68228.47%911.54%2464.16%5,909
District 252,07033.93%2,33838.32%1,62426.62%691.13%2684.39%6,101
District 261,56631.95%2,39848.92%88318.01%551.12%83216.97%4,902
District 271,41030.78%2,30350.27%80917.66%591.29%89319.49%4,581
District 281,68332.88%2,40246.92%97919.12%551.07%71914.05%5,119
District 291,83432.35%2,39042.15%1,39524.60%510.90%5569.81%5,670
District 301,58126.73%2,72946.14%1,54226.07%631.07%1,14819.41%5,915
District 3195326.64%1,14431.98%1,40739.33%732.04%2637.35%3,577
District 3256226.53%92943.86%58127.43%462.17%34816.43%2,118
District 331,11727.45%2,14552.72%74318.26%641.57%1,02825.26%4,069
District 341,41125.52%1,96635.56%2,04136.91%1112.01%751.36%5,529
District 351,18220.90%1,45325.69%2,91151.48%1091.93%1,45825.78%5,655
District 361,48526.61%1,97935.46%2,03036.37%871.56%510.91%5,581
District 3759928.62%56326.90%90843.38%231.10%30914.76%2,093
District 3828915.17%26914.12%1,32769.66%201.05%1,03854.49%1,905
District 3963528.01%39117.25%1,18552.27%562.47%55024.26%2,267
District 4038926.46%30320.61%54937.35%22915.58%16010.88%1,470
Overseas voters13.13%26.25%2990.63%00.00%2784.38%32
Totals52,53627.85%58,33930.92%74,81739.66%2,9741.58%16,4788.73%188,666
Final round results by state house district
District [56] [lower-alpha 6] Mary Peltola
Democratic
Sarah Palin
Republican
Margin [lower-alpha 5] Total active votes
#%#%#%
District 1 1,89449.17%1,95850.83%641.66%3,852
District 22,73959.34%1,87740.66%86218.67%4,616
District 34,25068.59%1,94631.41%2,30437.19%6,196
District 44,40879.74%1,12020.26%3,28859.48%5,528
District 52,12356.05%1,66543.95%45812.09%3,788
District 63,56250.10%3,54849.90%140.20%7,110
District 71,64333.34%3,28566.66%1,64233.32%4,928
District 81,82230.05%4,24169.95%2,41939.90%6,063
District 94,53658.81%3,17741.19%1,35917.62%7,713
District 102,66153.83%2,28246.17%3797.67%4,943
District 113,14854.23%2,65745.77%4918.46%5,805
District 122,69459.43%1,83940.57%85518.86%4,533
District 132,17257.07%1,63442.93%53814.14%3,806
District 143,01368.93%1,35831.07%1,65537.86%4,371
District 153,03155.99%2,38244.01%64911.99%5,413
District 163,84765.67%2,01134.33%1,83631.34%5,858
District 173,47576.12%1,09023.88%2,38552.25%4,565
District 1872758.39%51841.61%20916.79%1,245
District 191,67568.28%77831.72%89736.57%2,453
District 202,33163.64%1,33236.36%99927.27%3,663
District 212,96958.68%2,09141.32%87817.35%5,060
District 221,24053.54%1,07646.46%1647.08%2,316
District 232,57046.28%2,98353.72%4137.44%5,553
District 242,20340.27%3,26759.73%1,06419.45%5,470
District 252,12637.60%3,52962.40%1,40324.81%5,655
District 261,17525.63%3,40974.37%2,23448.73%4,584
District 271,15126.88%3,13173.12%1,98046.24%4,282
District 281,39729.23%3,38370.77%1,98641.55%4,780
District 291,85534.74%3,48465.26%1,62930.51%5,339
District 301,94234.88%3,62665.12%1,68430.24%5,568
District 311,75252.24%1,60247.76%1504.47%3,354
District 3277738.66%1,23361.34%45622.69%2,010
District 331,00626.18%2,83773.82%1,83147.65%3,843
District 342,47047.43%2,73852.57%2685.15%5,208
District 353,37362.13%2,05637.87%1,31724.26%5,429
District 362,46247.19%2,75552.81%2935.62%5,217
District 371,15759.79%77840.21%37919.59%1,935
District 381,49080.41%36319.59%1,12760.82%1,853
District 391,50774.35%52025.65%98748.69%2,027
District 4086365.13%46234.87%40130.26%1,325
Overseas voters2990.63%39.38%2681.25%32
Totals91,26551.48%86,02448.52%5,2412.96%177,289

Pairwise comparison

Pairwise comparison matrix [57] [58]
BegichPeltolaPalin
Begich-88,126101,438
Peltola79,486-91,375
Palin63,66686,197-

The pairwise comparison shows that Begich is the Condorcet winner and Palin is both the Condorcet loser and a spoiler candidate: [58] [59] [60] [61]

  • Begich preferred over Peltola by 52.6%
  • Begich preferred over Palin by 61.4%
  • Peltola preferred over Palin by 51.5%

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. withdrew from the general election following his victory in the primary
  3. 1 2 Hypothetical scenario with Palin and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
  4. Hypothetical scenario with Claus and Palin as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
  5. 1 2 Margin is the difference between the number of votes won by the winning candidate and the number of votes won by the candidate who won the second-largest number of votes.
  6. Results from unofficial tabulation of the raw Cast Vote Record file.
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 This poll was sponsored by 314 Action, which supports Gross

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The 2022 Alaska gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Alaska. Incumbent Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy won re-election to a second term, becoming the first Republican governor to be re-elected to a second term since Jay Hammond in 1978 and the first governor, regardless of political affiliation, to be re-elected to a second term since Tony Knowles in 1998.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska</span> U.S. House election in Alaska

The November 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska was held on Tuesday, November 8, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska. Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola won reelection to a full term in office, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III and Libertarian Chris Bye in the runoff count.

A top-four primary or top-four ranked-choice voting is an election method using a nonpartisan blanket primary where up to four candidates, those with the most votes, advance from a first round of FPTP voting, regardless of the political party. The round two (general) election, held some weeks later, uses instant-runoff voting to confirm a winner among the top set of candidates.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 Alaska elections</span>

The 2022 Alaska state elections took place on November 8, 2022. The state also held Regional Educational Attendance Area (REAA) elections on the first Tuesday in October.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska</span> U.S. House election in Alaska

The 2024 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska from its at-large congressional district. The election will coincide with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House, elections to the United States Senate, and various other state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 Anchorage mayoral election</span>

The 2024 Anchorage mayoral election was held on April 2, 2024, with a runoff election scheduled for May 14 because no candidate received more than 45% of the vote in the first round. It will elect the mayor of Anchorage, Alaska. Incumbent Republican mayor Dave Bronson is running for re-election to a second term in office.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 Alaska Republican presidential primary</span> Primary election in Alaska

The 2024 Alaska Republican presidential primary was held on March 5, 2024, as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election. 29 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were allocated on a proportional basis. The contest was held on Super Tuesday alongside primaries in 14 other states.

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  58. 1 2 Graham-Squire, Adam; McCune, David (September 11, 2022). "A Mathematical Analysis of the 2022 Alaska Special Election for US House". arXiv.org. p. 2. Retrieved March 24, 2024. Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
  59. Holliday, Wesley H.; Pacuit, Eric (October 1, 2023). "Split Cycle: a new Condorcet-consistent voting method independent of clones and immune to spoilers". Public Choice. 197 (1): 1–62. arXiv: 2004.02350 . doi:10.1007/s11127-023-01042-3. ISSN   1573-7101. and yet with Palin included, Instant Runoff elected the Democrat in the race, making Palin a spoiler
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