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Alaska's at-large congressional district | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Turnout | 32.16% [1] | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Peltola: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Palin: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Alaska |
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The 2022 Alaska at-large congressional district special election was held on August 16 to fill the seat left vacant after the death of Republican incumbent Don Young. [2] Mary Peltola defeated former governor Sarah Palin in the election, becoming the first Democrat to represent Alaska in the House since 1972, the first Alaska Native elected to Congress, and the first woman elected to represent Alaska in the House. [3]
The election was the first held after the passage of 2020 Alaska Measure 2, establishing a new procedure for elections. Under the new system, the top 4 candidates in a nonpartisan blanket primary advance to the general election. The general election is conducted using instant-runoff voting, a variant on traditional primaries where last-place candidates are repeatedly eliminated until only one candidate is left. Al Gross's withdrawal left only three names on the ballot in the general election.
The runoff count commenced on August 31, after all absentee and overseas ballots were counted. [4] [5] Peltola was declared the winner on August 31. [6] The Democratic victory was widely considered an upset due to Alaska's strong Republican lean. Peltola became the first Democrat to win a statewide or congressional election in Alaska since Mark Begich in 2008. [7] She was sworn in to the House of Representatives on September 13. [8]
The election generated controversy as a result of several election pathologies. The instant-runoff election produced a winner opposed by a majority of voters, [9] with both polls and analyses of the cast ballots finding that most voters preferred Nick Begich over both opponents. [10] Republican Sarah Palin played the role of spoiler by knocking out Begich in the first round. [9] [10] [11]
The election was also notable for being a participation failure, a situation where a candidate is disqualified as a result of receiving too many votes. [11] In this race, Peltola won as a result of 3% of Alaska ballots that ranked her last (after Palin and Begich). [10]
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No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||||||||
Begich | Coghill | Constant | Gross | Lowenfels | Palin | Revak | Peltola | Sweeney | |||||
1 [44] | May 12, 2022 | Alaska Chamber Alaska Miners Association Alaska Oil and Gas Association Alaska Support Industry Alliance Associated General Contractors of Alaska Resource Development Council | N/A | Youtube | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | P |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Nick Begich (R) | Santa Claus (I) | John Coghill (R) | Christopher Constant (D) | Al Gross (I) | Andrew Halcro (I) | Jeff Lowenfels (I) | Sarah Palin (R) | Mary Peltola (D) | Josh Revak (R) | Tara Sweeney (R) | Adam Wool (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 13% | 2% | 3% | 19% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 16% |
Remington Research Group (R) | April 7–9, 2022 | 955 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 21% | – | – | 7% | 26% | – | – | 31% | – | 3% | 2% | – | 4% | 6% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Sarah Palin | 43,601 | 27.01 | |
Republican | Nick Begich | 30,861 | 19.12 | |
Independent | Al Gross [lower-alpha 2] | 20,392 | 12.63 | |
Democratic | Mary Peltola | 16,265 | 10.08 | |
Republican | Tara Sweeney | 9,560 | 5.92 | |
Independent | Santa Claus | 7,625 | 4.72 | |
Democratic | Christopher Constant | 6,224 | 3.86 | |
Independent | Jeff Lowenfels | 5,994 | 3.71 | |
Republican | John Coghill | 3,842 | 2.38 | |
Republican | Josh Revak | 3,785 | 2.34 | |
Independent | Andrew Halcro | 3,013 | 1.87 | |
Democratic | Adam Wool | 2,730 | 1.69 | |
Democratic | Emil Notti | 1,777 | 1.10 | |
Libertarian | Chris Bye | 1,049 | 0.65 | |
Democratic | Mike Milligan | 608 | 0.38 | |
Independence | John Howe | 380 | 0.24 | |
Independent | Laurel Foster | 338 | 0.21 | |
Republican | Stephen Wright | 332 | 0.21 | |
Republican | Jay Armstrong | 286 | 0.18 | |
Libertarian | J. R. Myers | 285 | 0.18 | |
Independent | Gregg Brelsford | 284 | 0.18 | |
Democratic | Ernest Thomas | 199 | 0.12 | |
Republican | Bob Lyons | 197 | 0.12 | |
Republican | Otto Florschutz | 193 | 0.12 | |
Republican | Maxwell Sumner | 133 | 0.08 | |
Republican | Clayton Trotter | 121 | 0.07 | |
Independent | Anne McCabe | 118 | 0.07 | |
Republican | John Callahan | 114 | 0.07 | |
Independent | Arlene Carle | 107 | 0.07 | |
Independent | Tim Beck | 96 | 0.06 | |
Independent | Sherry Mettler | 92 | 0.06 | |
Republican | Tom Gibbons | 94 | 0.06 | |
Independent | Lady Donna Dutchess | 87 | 0.05 | |
American Independent | Robert Ornelas | 83 | 0.05 | |
Independent | Ted Heintz | 70 | 0.04 | |
Independent | Silvio Pellegrini | 70 | 0.04 | |
Independent | Karyn Griffin | 67 | 0.04 | |
Independent | David Hughes | 54 | 0.03 | |
Independent | Don Knight | 46 | 0.03 | |
Republican | Jo Woodward | 44 | 0.03 | |
Independent | Jason Williams | 37 | 0.02 | |
Independent | Robert Brown | 36 | 0.02 | |
Independent | Dennis Aguayo | 31 | 0.02 | |
Independent | William Hibler III | 25 | 0.02 | |
Republican | Bradley Welter | 24 | 0.01 | |
Independent | David Thistle | 23 | 0.01 | |
Independent | Brian Beal | 19 | 0.01 | |
Republican | Mikel Melander | 17 | 0.01 | |
Total votes | 161,428 | 100.0 |
Under Alaska's top-four primary system, if a general election candidate drops out, the director of elections may replace them with the name of the fifth-place finisher. Shortly after the primary, Al Gross dropped out of the general election, but Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai did not advance Tara Sweeney in his place because there was less than 64 days remaining until the general election as required by law. After a lawsuit, the Alaska Supreme Court upheld Fenumiai's decision. [29]
Source | Ranking | As of |
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The Cook Political Report [46] | Likely R | August 10, 2022 |
Inside Elections [47] | Likely R | August 4, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [48] | Safe R | June 22, 2022 |
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | RCV count | Nick Begich (R) | Al Gross (I) | Sarah Palin (R) | Mary Peltola (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey Research | July 20–25, 2022 | 1,219 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 30% | – | 29% | 41% | – |
2 | 55% | – | 45% | ||||||
2* [lower-alpha 3] | – | 49% | 51% | ||||||
Alaska Survey Research | July 2–5, 2022 | 1,201 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 31% | – | 29% | 40% | – |
2 | 57% | – | 43% | ||||||
2* [lower-alpha 3] | – | 49% | 51% | ||||||
Gross withdraws from the race | |||||||||
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 29% | 27% | 26% | 19% | – |
2 | 33% | 40% | 28% | – | |||||
3 | 54% | 46% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | RCV count | Nick Begich (R) | Santa Claus (I) | Christopher Constant (D) | Al Gross (I) | Sarah Palin (R) | Tara Sweeney (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 28% | 21% | – | 26% | 25% | – | – |
2 | 32% | – | 40% | 28% | |||||||
3 | 53% | 47% | – | ||||||||
3* [lower-alpha 4] | – | 53% | – | 47% | |||||||
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 29% | – | 17% | 27% | 28% | – | – |
2 | 32% | – | 40% | 28% | |||||||
3 | 54% | 46% | – | ||||||||
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 28% | – | 35% | 26% | 11% | – | |
2 | 32% | 39% | 29% | – | |||||||
3 | 55% | 45% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | RCV count | Al Gross (I) | Sarah Palin (R) | Lora Reinbold (R) | Josh Revak (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | BA | 33% | 30% | 8% | 9% | 16% |
2 | 33% | 30% | – | 11% | 26% | ||||
3 | 35% | 35% | – | – | 30% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Al Gross (I) | Sarah Palin (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 42% | 19% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Al Gross (I) | Josh Revak (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 35% | 34% | 31% |
Party | Candidate | First Choice | Round 1 | Round 2 | |||||||
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Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | ||||
Democratic | Mary Peltola | 74,817 | 39.66% | +982 | 75,799 | 40.19% | +15,467 | 91,266 | 51.48% | ||
Republican | Sarah Palin | 58,339 | 30.92% | +634 | 58,973 | 31.27% | +27,053 | 86,026 | 48.52% | ||
Republican | Nick Begich | 52,536 | 27.84% | +1,274 | 53,810 | 28.53% | -53,810 | Eliminated | |||
Write-in | 2,974 | 1.58% | -2,974 | Eliminated | |||||||
Total votes | 188,666 | 188,582 | 177,292 | ||||||||
Blank or inactive ballots | 3,707 | +11,290 | 14,997 | ||||||||
Democratic gain from Republican |
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Begich | Peltola | Palin | |
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Begich | - | 88,126 | 101,438 |
Peltola | 79,486 | - | 91,375 |
Palin | 63,666 | 86,197 | - |
The pairwise comparison shows that Begich is the Condorcet winner and Palin is both the Condorcet loser and a spoiler candidate: [58] [59] [60] [61]
Mark Peter Begich is an American politician who served as a United States senator from Alaska from 2009 to 2015. A member of the Democratic Party, he served as mayor of Anchorage from 2003 to 2009.
The Alaska Democratic Party is the affiliate of the Democratic Party in Alaska, headquartered in Anchorage.
The 2008 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator and former President pro tempore Ted Stevens ran for re-election for an eighth term in the United States Senate. It was one of the ten Senate races that U.S. Senator John Ensign of Nevada, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, predicted as being most competitive. The primaries were held on August 26, 2008. Stevens was challenged by Democratic candidate Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage and son of former U.S. Representative Nick Begich.
Mary Sattler Peltola is an American politician and former tribal judge serving as the U.S. representative from Alaska's at-large congressional district since September 2022. A member of the Democratic Party, she previously served as a judge on the Orutsararmiut Native Council's tribal court, executive director of the Kuskokwim River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission, Bethel city councilor and member of the Alaska House of Representatives.
The 2008 United States presidential election in Alaska took place on November 4, 2008, as part of the nationwide presidential election held throughout all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Voters chose 3 electors, or representatives to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
Daniel Scott Sullivan is an American politician and attorney serving as the junior United States senator from Alaska since 2015. A member of the Republican Party, Sullivan previously served as the commissioner of the Alaska Department of Natural Resources from 2010 to 2013, and as the Alaska Attorney General from 2009 to 2010.
The 2014 United States Senate election in Alaska took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the election of the governor of Alaska, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 1972 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska was held on November 7, 1972, to elect the United States representative from Alaska's at-large congressional district. Incumbent Democratic Representative Nick Begich went missing shortly before the general election, but still defeated Republican nominee Don Young.
The 2014 Alaska gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Alaska, concurrently with the election of Alaska's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 2016 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 2016 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska was held on November 8, 2016, to elect the U.S. representative from Alaska's at-large congressional district, who will represent the state of Alaska in the 114th United States Congress. The election coincided with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.
The 2018 Alaska gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Alaska. In the primaries for recognized political parties, candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run separately. The winners of each respective primary for governor and lieutenant governor then become a joint ticket in the general election for their political party. Incumbent Independent governor Bill Walker was seeking re-election in what was originally a three-way race between Walker, Republican former Alaska state senator Mike Dunleavy, and Democratic former Alaska U.S. Senator Mark Begich. Despite Walker dropping out on October 19, 2018 and endorsing Begich, Dunleavy won in what was the only gubernatorial gain by a Republican candidate in 2018. As of 2024, this was the last time the Governor’s office in Alaska changed partisan control. Walker later unsuccessfully ran for Governor of Alaska in 2022.
The 2022 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 8, 2022. Incumbent senator Lisa Murkowski won reelection to a fourth full term, defeating fellow Republican Kelly Tshibaka and Democrat Patricia Chesbro.
The 2022 Alaska gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Alaska. Incumbent Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy won re-election to a second term, becoming the first Republican governor to be re-elected to a second term since Jay Hammond in 1978 and the first governor, regardless of political affiliation, to be re-elected to a second term since Tony Knowles in 1998.
The November 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska was held on Tuesday, November 8, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska. Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola won reelection to a full term in office, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III and Libertarian Chris Bye in the runoff count.
A top-four primary or top-four ranked-choice voting is an election method using a nonpartisan blanket primary where up to four candidates, those with the most votes, advance from a first round of FPTP voting, regardless of the political party. The round two (general) election, held some weeks later, uses instant-runoff voting to confirm a winner among the top set of candidates.
The 2022 Alaska state elections took place on November 8, 2022. The state also held Regional Educational Attendance Area (REAA) elections on the first Tuesday in October.
The 2024 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska from its at-large congressional district. The election will coincide with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House, elections to the United States Senate, and various other state and local elections.
The 2024 Anchorage mayoral election was held on April 2, 2024, with a runoff election scheduled for May 14 because no candidate received more than 45% of the vote in the first round. It will elect the mayor of Anchorage, Alaska. Incumbent Republican mayor Dave Bronson is running for re-election to a second term in office.
The 2024 Alaska Republican presidential primary was held on March 5, 2024, as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election. 29 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were allocated on a proportional basis. The contest was held on Super Tuesday alongside primaries in 14 other states.
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: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
and yet with Palin included, Instant Runoff elected the Democrat in the race, making Palin a spoiler
Hence Begich was the Condorcet winner. … spoiler and Condorcet loser, Palin