2018 Arizona's 8th congressional district special election

Last updated

2018 Arizona's 8th congressional district special election
Flag of Arizona.svg
  2016 April 24, 2018 November 2018  

Arizona's 8th congressional district
Turnout40.43%
  Debbie Lesko, official portrait, 115th Congress (cropped).jpg Hiral Tipirneni (cropped).jpg
Nominee Debbie Lesko Hiral Tipirneni
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote96,01287,331
Percentage52.37%47.63%

AZ-08 2018 special.svg
Precinct results

U.S. Representative before election

Trent Franks
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Debbie Lesko
Republican

A special election for Arizona's 8th congressional district was held in 2018 subsequent to the resignation of Republican U.S. Representative Trent Franks. Governor Doug Ducey called a special primary election for Tuesday, February 27, 2018, and a special general election for the balance of Franks' eighth term for Tuesday, April 24, 2018. [1] [2]

Contents

Republican nominee and former Arizona Senate president pro tem Debbie Lesko won a closer-than-expected race against Democratic challenger Hiral Tipirneni.

Background

Incumbent representative Trent Franks announced on December 7, 2017, that he would resign effective January 31, 2018, after admitting allegations regarding the issue of surrogacy. However, after his wife was hospitalized, Franks resigned effective December 8, 2017. [3]

Candidates must file nomination forms and petitions within 30 days of the governor's proclamation. Candidates in special congressional elections in Arizona must collect a number of valid signatures equal to at least one-fourth of 1% of the number of qualified signers in the district. For the 2018 special election, a Democratic candidate requires 665 signatures, a Green candidate requires 392 signatures, a Libertarian candidate requires 401 signatures, a Republican candidate requires 860 signatures, and an independent candidate requires 4,680 signatures. [4]

It was initially thought that Arizona's resign-to-run law would have required sitting members of the Arizona Legislature to resign their seats in order to run in the special election. Arizona's resign-to-run law does not require someone to resign if they file to run when they are in the final year of their term. However, the deadline to submit nominating petitions was January 10 and the end of the current term for members of the Arizona Legislature was January 14, 2019. [5] However, legal advice from the legislature's nonpartisan counsel stated that incumbent state legislators would not be required to resign in order to run in the special election. [6]

Republican primary

Two of the major candidates in the Republican primary drew controversy late in the campaign. Former state senator Steve Montenegro faced calls to withdraw, including by former governor Jan Brewer, after news articles revealing sexually suggestive text messages between Montenegro and a legislative staffer surfaced. [7] Additionally, complaints were filed against former state senator Debbie Lesko over her campaign finance records. [8]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

  • Kevin Cavanaugh, former deputy sheriff [12]

Declined

Endorsements

Steve Montenegro

Individuals

Debates

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Debbie
Lesko
Phil
Lovas
Richard
Mack
Steve
Montenegro
Bob
Stump
Clair
Van
Steenwyck
Undecided
ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights (R) [25] January 29, 2018400± 4.9%21%12%1%21%10%5%24%
Remington Research (R-Jobs, Freedom, and Security PAC) [26] January 20–21, 2018787± 3.5%22%24%11%
Hypothetical polling

with Clint Hickman and Kimberly Yee

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Travis
Angry
Clint
Hickman
Debbie
Lesko
Phil
Lovas
Richard
Mack
Steve
Montenegro
Tony
Rivero
Bob
Stump
Christopher
Sylvester
Kimberly
Yee
Undecided
ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights (R) [27] December 11, 2017400± 4.9%1%15%16%2%1%1%18%2%7%37%
Data Orbital (R) [28] December 9–11, 2017400± 4.9%9%15%2%3%4%10%7%51%

Results

Republican special primary results, Arizona 2018 [29]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Debbie Lesko 27,047 35.37%
Republican Phil Lovas 18,65224.39%
Republican Steve Montenegro 18,10623.68%
Republican Bob Stump 4,0325.27%
Republican Clair Van Steenwyk1,7872.34%
Republican Christopher Sylvester1,4901.95%
Republican David Lien1,3411.75%
Republican Richard Mack 1,1911.56%
Republican Mark Yates8711.14%
Republican Chad Allen8241.08%
Republican Brenden Dilley8231.08%
Republican Stephen Dolgos3770.49%
Write-in 80.01%
Total votes76,459 100%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Results

Democratic special primary results, Arizona 2018 [29]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Hiral Tipirneni 23,175 60.22%
Democratic Brianna Westbrook 15,28839.72%
Write-in 220.06%
Total votes38,485 100%

Green primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Richard Grayson (write-in), candidate in Green Party presidential primary in Arizona in 2012 [9]
  • Gary Swing (write-in), Green Party candidate for U.S. Senator in Arizona in 2016 [9]

Each candidate received 13 write-in votes in the primary. Neither was placed on the special election ballot. [33]

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Kelly Noble (write-in) [34]

The candidate received 22 write-in votes in the primary and was not placed on the special election ballot. [33]

General election

Debbie Lesko at a campaign event in Peoria, Arizona Debbie Lesko (27816240978).jpg
Debbie Lesko at a campaign event in Peoria, Arizona
Hiral Tipirneni at a campaign event in Sun City, Arizona Hiral Tipirneni (39874752140).jpg
Hiral Tipirneni at a campaign event in Sun City, Arizona

Republican candidate Debbie Lesko received over $1 million in funding from Republican groups outside the state. [35]

Candidates

Debates

Host
network
DateLink(s)Participants
Hiral
Tipirneni (D)
Debbie
Lesko (R)
KAET March 26, 2018 [38] InvitedInvited

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [39] Likely RMarch 2, 2018
Inside Elections/Rothenberg Political Report [40] Likely RFebruary 28, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [41] Likely RMarch 14, 2018

Endorsements

Debbie Lesko

Federal politicians

Local and state politicians

Organizations

Hiral Tipirneni

Federal politicians

Local and state politicians

Labor unions

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Debbie
Lesko (R)
Hiral
Tipirneni (D)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College [74] April 19–22, 2018400± 5.2%49%43%8%
Lake Research Partners (D-Tipirneni) [75] April 14–16, 2018408± 4.9%44%44%11%
Emerson College [76] April 12–15, 2018400± 5.2%45%46%4%5%
OH Predictive Insights [77] April 11, 2018500± 4.4%53%43%4%
Lake Research Partners (D-Tipirneni) [78] March 3–6, 201840048%34%18%

Results

Arizona's 8th congressional district special election, 2018 [79]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Debbie Lesko 96,012 52.37% −16.18%
Democratic Hiral Tipirneni87,33147.63%N/A
Total votes'183,343''100%'N/A
Republican hold

See also

Related Research Articles

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Harold Trent Franks is an American businessman and former politician who served as the U.S. representative for Arizona's 8th congressional district from 2003 to 2017. He is a member of the Republican Party. During his tenure, Franks served as vice chairman of the United States House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces and chairman of the United States House Judiciary Subcommittee on the Constitution, Civil Rights and Civil Liberties.

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References

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Official campaign websites