2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election

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2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election
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←  2020 August 23, 2022 November 2022  →
New York's 19th congressional district
Turnout27.16% [1]
  Pat Ryan 117th Congress portrait (cropped) v2.jpeg Rep. Marc Molinaro official photo (cropped).jpg
Nominee Pat Ryan Marc Molinaro
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Working Families Conservative
Popular vote66,08863,010
Percentage51.2%48.8%
2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election results map by county.svg
Results by county
Ryan:     50–60%     60–70%
Molinaro:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
U.S. Representative before election

Antonio Delgado
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Pat Ryan
Democratic

The 2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election was a special election held on August 23, 2022. [2] The seat became vacant after incumbent Democratic representative Antonio Delgado resigned on May 25, 2022, to become lieutenant governor of New York. [3] [4] Democratic nominee Pat Ryan won a slight victory over Republican nominee Marc Molinaro in what was seen as an upset due to Molinaro's lead in polls and fundraising in the weeks leading to the election. [5]

Contents

Candidates

Democratic Party

Nominee

Declined

Republican Party

Nominee

Endorsements

Pat Ryan (D)
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Mayors
Organizations
Marc Molinaro (R)
U.S. representatives
Organizations

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [17] TossupMay 5, 2022
Inside Elections [18] TossupJuly 21, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [19] Lean R (flip)May 11, 2022

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Pat
Ryan (D)		Marc
Molinaro (R)		Undecided
Data for Progress (D) August 17–22, 20221,222 (LV)± 3.0%45%53%2%
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department (D) [upper-alpha 1] August 6–8, 2022480 (LV)± 4.5%43%46%11%
Triton Polling & Research (R) [upper-alpha 2] July 26–28, 2022407 (LV)± 4.9%40%50%11%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 3] June 29–30, 2022581 (LV)± 4.0%40%43%16%
Triton Polling & Research (R) [upper-alpha 2] June 16–20, 2022505 (LV)± 4.4%38%52%10%
Hypothetical polling
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Generic
Democrat		Generic
Republican		Undecided
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department (D) [upper-alpha 1] August 6–8, 2022480 (LV)± 4.5%44%45%12%

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of August 3, 2022
CandidateAmount raisedAmount spentCash on hand
Marc Molinaro (R)$1,593,762$993,626$600,136
Pat Ryan (D)$1,582,369$1,265,848$316,522
Source: OpenSecrets [20]

Results

Pat Ryan won the election with 66,088 votes or 51.2% of the vote compared to Marc Molinaro's 48.8% of the vote or 63,010 votes. This defied most polls, which had Molinaro winning by a somewhat comfortable margin as well as Sabato's Crystal Ball rating of Lean R. His victory can be attributed to his large margins in Ulster County. Ryan overperformed Joe Biden's 2020 margin in this district by about 0.8%. The result was considered an upset by some, as Molinaro had led by as much as 14 percentage points in public polling of the race, and Molinaro outspent Ryan on television advertising. [21] [22] Ryan's victory led some forecasters to change some of their predictions for the 2022 House election. [23]

2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election [24] [1]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Pat Ryan58,63645.39%–2.61
Working Families Pat Ryan7,4525.77%–0.78
Total Pat Ryan 66,088 51.15% –3.64
Republican Marc Molinaro52,51440.65%–2.55
Conservative Marc Molinaro10,4968.12%N/A
Total Marc Molinaro 63,01048.77%+5.57
Write-in 960.07%N/A
Total votes129,194 100.00%
Turnout 129,32827.16%
Registered electors 476,134
Democratic hold
By county
County Pat Ryan
Democratic 		Marc Molinaro
Republican 		Write-in MarginTotal
votes		Turnout
#%#%#%#%
Broome (part)8130.0018970.0000.00-108-40.0027018.90
Columbia 9,02657.356,70442.6080.052,32214.7515,73832.71
Delaware 3,03341.424,28758.5520.03-1,254-17.137,32224.85
Dutchess (part)12,25748.4413,03051.49170.07-773-3.0525,30431.07
Greene 3,63239.215,62660.7440.04-1,994-21.539,26228.67
Montgomery (part)44036.4876663.5200.00-326-27.031,20614.16
Otsego 4,15348.264,43451.52190.22-281-3.278,60624.23
Rensselaer (part)3,90145.134,73954.8330.04-838-9.708,64318.51
Schoharie 1,64234.053,17665.8550.10-1,534-31.814,82324.27
Sullivan 3,88142.725,19657.1980.09-1,315-14.479,08518.84
Ulster 24,04261.7514,86338.17300.089,17923.5838,93531.35
Totals66,08851.1563,01048.77960.073,0782.38129,19427.16
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 This poll was conducted in-house by and for the DCCC
  2. 1 2 This poll was sponsored by Freedom Council USA
  3. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Ryan's campaign and analyzed by Global Strategy Group

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References

  1. 1 2 "New York State Unofficial Election Night Results". New York State Board of Elections . August 24, 2022. Retrieved August 24, 2022.
  2. ↑ Taddeo, Sarah (May 23, 2022). "Antonio Delgado to be sworn in as New York's lieutenant governor on May 25". The Journal News . Retrieved May 23, 2022.
  3. 1 2 3 "Hochul taps upstate Rep. Antonio Delgado as LG". City & State . May 3, 2022. Retrieved May 3, 2022.
  4. 1 2 Fandos, Nicholas; Ferre-Sadurni, Luis (May 3, 2022). "Hochul Chooses Antonio Delgado as New Lieutenant Governor". The New York Times . ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved May 3, 2022.
  5. ↑ Solender, Andrew (August 23, 2022). "Democrats hold onto key House seat in N.Y. special election". Axios . Retrieved August 24, 2022.
  6. 1 2 3 4 "Pat Ryan to run in special 19th Congressional election before pursuing 18th seat". Poughkeepsie Journal. May 17, 2022. Retrieved May 23, 2022.
  7. ↑ "For the strength of our party & the future we need here in NYS, I have decided to stay in the Senate & run for re-election, however the lines may look. We need representation in Albany fighting against the partisan rhetoric & blatant attacks on the rights we hold so dear".
  8. ↑ "LABOR CANVASS FOR NY-19 SPECIAL ELECTION: Join Tom DiNapoli to knock doors for Pat Ryan · Mobilize".
  9. ↑ "Columbia and Greene: Virtual Phonebank for Michelle Hinchey and Pat Ryan! · Mobilize".
  10. ↑ "Special election for upstate New York House seat offers new test of political energy around abortion | CNN Politics". CNN . August 22, 2022.
  11. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 "Mayors Across Hudson Valley Endorse Pat Ryan". hudsonvalleypress.com. June 22, 2022. Retrieved December 5, 2022.
  12. ↑ "Pat Ryan".
  13. ↑ "Stefanik makes push for Republican New York House hopefuls".
  14. ↑ "Small Businesses Endorse Marc Molinaro in NY-19 Special Election". National Federation of Independent Business. July 20, 2022. Retrieved August 10, 2022.
  15. ↑ "NYFCR Endorsements: 2022". newyorkfcr.org. August 21, 2022. Archived from the original on August 21, 2022.
  16. ↑ "U.S. Chamber Endorses Marc Molinaro for New York's 19th Congressional District". August 10, 2022.
  17. ↑ Wasserman, Dave. "Delgado Exit Yet Another Setback for New York Democrats" . Retrieved May 6, 2022.
  18. ↑ Rubashkin, Jacob (July 21, 2022). "New York Special Elections: 19th and 23rd Districts". House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved July 21, 2022.
  19. ↑ Coleman, J. Miles (May 11, 2022). "Notes on the State of Politics: May 11, 2022" . Retrieved May 11, 2022.
  20. ↑ "New York District 19 2022 Special Election". OpenSecrets . Archived from the original on August 24, 2022. Retrieved August 24, 2022.
  21. ↑ "Democrats win Albany-area special House race despite being outspent on airwaves". NBC News. Retrieved August 24, 2022.
  22. ↑ Solender, Andrew (August 24, 2022). "Democrats hold onto key House seat in N.Y. special election as Pat Ryan wins". Axios. Retrieved August 24, 2022.
  23. ↑ "Red Wave Looks More Like a Ripple". Cook Political Report. Retrieved August 24, 2022.
  24. ↑ "New York 19th Congressional District Special Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved August 23, 2022.
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