2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election

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2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election
Flag of New York.svg
  2020 August 23, 2022 November 2022  

New York's 19th congressional district
Turnout27.16% [1]
  Pat Ryan 117th Congress portrait (cropped) v2.jpeg Rep. Marc Molinaro official photo (cropped).jpg
Nominee Pat Ryan Marc Molinaro
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Working Families Conservative
Popular vote66,08863,010
Percentage51.2%48.8%

2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election results map by county.svg
Results by county
Ryan:     50–60%     60–70%
Molinaro:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

U.S. Representative before election

Antonio Delgado
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Pat Ryan
Democratic

The 2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election was a special election held on August 23, 2022. [2] The seat became vacant after incumbent Democratic representative Antonio Delgado resigned on May 25, 2022, to become lieutenant governor of New York. [3] [4] Democratic nominee Pat Ryan won a slight victory over Republican nominee Marc Molinaro in what was seen as an upset due to Molinaro's lead in polls and fundraising in the weeks leading to the election. [5]

Contents

Candidates

Democratic Party

Nominee

Declined

Republican Party

Nominee

Endorsements

Pat Ryan (D)

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Mayors

Organizations

Marc Molinaro (R)

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [17] TossupMay 5, 2022
Inside Elections [18] TossupJuly 21, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [19] Lean R (flip)May 11, 2022

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Pat
Ryan (D)
Marc
Molinaro (R)
Undecided
Data for Progress (D) [20] August 17–22, 20221,222 (LV)± 3.0%45%53%2%
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department (D) [21] [upper-alpha 1] August 6–8, 2022480 (LV)± 4.5%43%46%11%
Triton Polling & Research (R) [22] [upper-alpha 2] July 26–28, 2022407 (LV)± 4.9%40%50%11%
Public Policy Polling (D) [23] [upper-alpha 3] June 29–30, 2022581 (LV)± 4.0%40%43%16%
Triton Polling & Research (R) [24] [upper-alpha 2] June 16–20, 2022505 (LV)± 4.4%38%52%10%
Hypothetical polling

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Undecided
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department (D) [21] [upper-alpha 1] August 6–8, 2022480 (LV)± 4.5%44%45%12%

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of August 3, 2022
CandidateAmount raisedAmount spentCash on hand
Marc Molinaro (R)$1,593,762$993,626$600,136
Pat Ryan (D)$1,582,369$1,265,848$316,522
Source: OpenSecrets [25]

Results

Pat Ryan won the election with 66,088 votes or 51.2% of the vote compared to Marc Molinaro's 48.8% of the vote or 63,010 votes. This defied most polls, which had Molinaro winning by a somewhat comfortable margin as well as Sabato's Crystal Ball rating of Lean R. His victory can be attributed to his large margins in Ulster County. Ryan overperformed Joe Biden's 2020 margin in this district by about 0.8%. The result was considered an upset by some, as Molinaro had led by as much as 14 percentage points in public polling of the race, and Molinaro outspent Ryan on television advertising. [26] [27] Ryan's victory led some forecasters to change some of their predictions for the 2022 House election. [28]

2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election [29] [1]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Pat Ryan58,63645.39%–2.61
Working Families Pat Ryan7,4525.77%–0.78
Total Pat Ryan 66,088 51.15% –3.64
Republican Marc Molinaro52,51440.65%–2.55
Conservative Marc Molinaro10,4968.12%N/A
Total Marc Molinaro 63,01048.77%+5.57
Write-in 960.07%N/A
Total votes129,194 100.00%
Turnout 129,32827.16%
Registered electors 476,134
Democratic hold
By county
County Pat Ryan
Democratic
Marc Molinaro
Republican
Write-in MarginTotal
votes
Turnout
#%#%#%#%
Broome (part)8130.0018970.0000.00-108-40.0027018.90
Columbia 9,02657.356,70442.6080.052,32214.7515,73832.71
Delaware 3,03341.424,28758.5520.03-1,254-17.137,32224.85
Dutchess (part)12,25748.4413,03051.49170.07-773-3.0525,30431.07
Greene 3,63239.215,62660.7440.04-1,994-21.539,26228.67
Montgomery (part)44036.4876663.5200.00-326-27.031,20614.16
Otsego 4,15348.264,43451.52190.22-281-3.278,60624.23
Rensselaer (part)3,90145.134,73954.8330.04-838-9.708,64318.51
Schoharie 1,64234.053,17665.8550.10-1,534-31.814,82324.27
Sullivan 3,88142.725,19657.1980.09-1,315-14.479,08518.84
Ulster 24,04261.7514,86338.17300.089,17923.5838,93531.35
Totals66,08851.1563,01048.77960.073,0782.38129,19427.16

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 This poll was conducted in-house by and for the DCCC
  2. 1 2 This poll was sponsored by Freedom Council USA
  3. This poll was sponsored by Ryan's campaign and analyzed by Global Strategy Group

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References

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  9. "Columbia and Greene: Virtual Phonebank for Michelle Hinchey and Pat Ryan! · Mobilize".
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  20. Data for Progress (D)
  21. 1 2 DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department (D)
  22. Triton Polling & Research (R)
  23. Public Policy Polling (D)
  24. Triton Polling & Research (R)
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  29. "New York 19th Congressional District Special Election Results". The New York Times. August 23, 2022. Retrieved August 23, 2022.