2024 United States presidential election in Washington (state)

Last updated

2024 United States presidential election in Washington
Flag of Washington.svg
  2020 November 5, 20242028 
Turnout78.94% (of registered voters) (Decrease2.svg5.20 pp) [1]
  Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg Donald Trump official portrait (3x4a).jpg
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Projected electoral vote120
Popular vote2,245,8491,530,923
Percentage57.23%39.01%

Washington Presidential Election Results 2024.svg
2024 U.S. Presidential Election in Washington by congressional district.svg

President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Washington took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Washington voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Washington has 12 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. [2]

Contents

Although Washington was a Republican-leaning swing state until the 1980s, Democrats have won Washington in every presidential election starting in 1988 and have consistently done so by double digits since 2008. Washington is part of the Democratic-leaning West Coast, and was predicted to go comfortably to the Democratic Party in 2024.

While Trump improved his margin in all fifty states, Washington tied Utah for the smallest swing to the right, with Trump improving his margin by less than 1%, compared to the national swing of about 6%. Washington was the sixth-most Democratic state in the election behind Vermont, Massachusetts, Maryland, Hawaii, and California; the latter five states voted for Harris by more than 20%. This was the first election since 1956 in which Washington voted to the left of New York (which had the largest swing to the right in this election) and Rhode Island. Along with Oregon and Hawaii, Washington State was one of three states won by the Democratic candidate where Trump received fewer votes in this election than in 2020.

With this election, Clallam County ended its 40-year bellwether streak, voting for the losing presidential candidate for the first time since 1976; Trump thus became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying this county since Richard Nixon in 1968. It had previously been the only county in the nation to vote for every presidential election winner since 1980. [3]

Primary election

Republican primary

The Washington Republican primary took place on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries in Hawaii, Idaho, Mississippi, and Missouri.

Washington Republican primary, March 12, 2024 [4]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump 601,07076.43%43043
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)151,48519.26%000
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)17,8702.27%000
Chris Christie (withdrawn)8,7021.11%000
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)7,3180.93%000
Total:786,445100.00%43043

Democratic primary

The Washington Democratic primary took place on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries in Democrats Abroad, Northern Marianas, Mississippi, and Georgia.

Washington Democratic primary, March 12, 2024 [5]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)763,73983.5%90
Uncommitted delegates 89,7649.8%2
Marianne Williamson 25,3082.8%0
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)25,1902.8%0
Write-in votes 10,9661.2%0
Total:914,967100.0%9219111

General election

In the early hours of October 28 a ballot drop box in Vancouver was found to be on fire damaging a number of ballots. [6] Police stated that a suspicious device had been found next to the box. [6]

Candidates

The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Washington:

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [7] Solid DNovember 4, 2024
Inside Elections [8] Solid DNovember 3, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [9] Safe DNovember 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [10] Safe DNovember 4, 2024
CNalysis [11] Solid DNovember 4, 2024
CNN [12] Safe DNovember 4, 2024
The Economist [13] Safe DNovember 4, 2024
538 [14] Solid DNovember 4, 2024
RCP [15] Safe DNovember 4, 2024
NBC News [16] Solid DNovember 4, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Research Co. [17] November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%54%39%7%
ActiVote [18] October 3–29, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%59%41%
Public Policy Polling (D) [19] [A] October 16–17, 2024571 (LV)± 4.1%55%40%6%
Strategies 360 [20] [B] October 11–16, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%55%39%6% [b]
SurveyUSA [21] [C] October 9–14, 2024703 (LV)± 4.9%57%35%8%
ActiVote [22] September 7 – October 13, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%60%40%
Elway Research [23] [D] October 8–12, 2024401 (RV)± 5.0%57%32%11%
Elway Research [24] [D] September 3–6, 2024403 (RV)± 5.0%53%32%11%
July 21, 2024Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
DHM Research [25] July 12–17, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%45%40%14% [c]
SurveyUSA [26] [C] July 10–13, 2024708 (LV)± 5.0%51%36%13%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [27] [A] July 24–25, 2024581 (LV)± 4.0%52%38%6%4%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
DHM Research [25] July 12–17, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%45%38%17% [d]
SurveyUSA [26] [C] July 10–13, 2024708 (LV)± 5.0%50%36%14%
Public Policy Polling (D) [28] [A] May 15–16, 2024615 (LV)± 4.0%55%39%6%
The Bullfinch Group [29] [E] April 16–23, 2024250 (RV)± 6.2%45%46%9%
John Zogby Strategies [30] [F] April 13–21, 2024418 (LV)52%40%8%
Echelon Insights [31] [G] March 18–21, 2024600 (RV)± 4.7%48%37%15%
Public Policy Polling (D) [32] [A] February 13–14, 2024797 (LV)± 3.5%54%38%8%
Public Policy Polling (D) [33] [A] November 14–15, 2023700 (LV)± 3.7%52%38%10%
Elway Research [34] [D] October 30 – November 3, 2023403 (RV)± 5.0%39%29%31% [e]
Public Policy Polling (D) [35] [A] June 7–8, 2023773 (LV)± 3.5%53%36%11%
Emerson College [36] September 30 – October 1, 2022782 (LV)± 3.4%49%39%12%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [37] August 15–17, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%54%41%6%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
Elway Research [38] [D] May 13–16, 2024403 (RV)± 5.0%42%34%3%1%0%17%
The Bullfinch Group [29] [E] April 16–23, 2024250 (RV)± 6.2%35%40%13%1%4%8%
Elway Research [34] [D] October 30 – November 3, 2023403 (RV)± 5.0%37%25%9%3%26% [f]
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [30] [F] April 13–21, 2024418 (LV)45%45%10%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [30] [F] April 13–21, 2024418 (LV)49%31%20%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Gretchen
Whitmer
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
DHM Research [25] July 12–17, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%42%38%20% [g]

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Josh
Shapiro
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
DHM Research [25] July 12–17, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%40%38%22% [g]

Raphael Warnock vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Raphael
Warnock
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
DHM Research [25] July 12–17, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%40%37%23% [h]

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [35] [A] June 7–8, 2023773 (LV)± 3.5%51%39%10%

Results

Swing by county:
Democratic -- +2.5-5%
Democratic -- +0-2.5%
Republican -- +0-2.5%
Republican -- +2.5-5%
Republican -- +5-7.5%
Republican -- +7.5-10% Washington County Swings in 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.svg
Swing by county:
  Democratic — +2.5-5%
  Democratic — +0-2.5%
  Republican — +0-2.5%
  Republican — +2.5-5%
  Republican — +5-7.5%
  Republican — +7.5-10%
2024 United States presidential election in Washington [39]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic 2,245,849 57.23% Decrease2.svg 0.74%
Republican 1,530,92339.01%Increase2.svg 0.24%
We the People
54,8681.40%N/A
Green 29,7540.76%Increase2.svg 0.31%
Libertarian 16,4280.42%Decrease2.svg 1.55%
Socialism and Liberation Claudia De la Cruz
Karina Garcia
8,6950.22%Increase2.svg 0.10%
Justice for All7,2540.18%N/A
Independent
3,3230.08%N/A
Socialist Equality Joseph Kishore
Jerome White
9170.02%N/A
Socialist Workers Rachele Fruit
Dennis Richter
8240.02%Decrease2.svg 0.04%
Write-in 25,4080.65%Decrease2.svg 0.02%
Total votes3,924,243 100.00% N/A

By county

CountyKamala Harris
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adams 1,45527.12%3,76770.21%1432.67%-2,312-43.09%5,365
Asotin 4,08235.59%7,00461.07%3823.33%-2,922-25.48%11,468
Benton 37,66237.40%59,55559.15%3,4763.45%-21,893-21.75%100,693
Chelan 18,39743.60%22,36353.00%1,4313.39%-3,966-9.40%42,191
Clallam 25,44052.28%21,63244.45%1,5913.27%3,8087.83%48,663
Clark 143,20651.78%123,99844.83%9,3743.39%19,2086.95%276,578
Columbia 66126.60%1,73769.90%873.50%-1,076-43.30%2,485
Cowlitz 22,82538.47%34,58058.29%1,9203.24%-11,755-19.82%59,325
Douglas 7,41034.98%13,09561.82%6773.20%-5,685-26.84%21,182
Ferry 1,31531.93%2,66764.75%1373.33%-1,352-32.82%4,119
Franklin 11,88437.26%19,08659.84%9272.91%-7,202-22.58%31,897
Garfield 33024.41%97371.97%493.62%-643-47.56%1,352
Grant 10,80629.81%24,32667.10%1,1213.09%-13,520-37.29%36,253
Grays Harbor 17,16145.41%19,43251.42%1,2003.18%-2,271-6.01%37,793
Island 29,59556.43%20,96739.98%1,8873.60%8,62816.45%52,449
Jefferson 17,45970.69%6,32425.61%9153.70%11,13545.08%24,698
King 832,60673.65%252,19322.31%45,7034.04%580,41351.34%1,130,502
Kitsap 91,73158.48%59,08037.66%6,0613.86%32,65120.82%156,872
Kittitas 10,81040.79%14,64555.27%1,0443.94%-3,835-14.48%26,499
Klickitat 5,91743.48%7,17852.75%5123.76%-1,261-9.27%13,607
Lewis 14,43331.83%29,32264.67%1,5833.49%-14,889-32.84%45,338
Lincoln 1,67823.49%5,27273.80%1942.72%-3,594-50.31%7,144
Mason 17,21546.92%18,12749.41%1,3473.67%-912-2.49%36,689
Okanogan 8,46640.84%11,55555.74%7113.43%-3,089-14.90%20,732
Pacific 6,82547.91%7,01049.21%4092.87%-185-1.30%14,244
Pend Oreille 2,46128.80%5,82668.18%2583.02%-3,365-39.38%8,545
Pierce 235,16953.50%188,19442.81%16,2183.69%46,97510.69%439,581
San Juan 9,53973.34%2,89022.22%5774.44%6,64951.12%13,006
Skagit 36,95652.60%30,76543.79%2,5353.61%6,1918.81%70,256
Skamania 3,14742.79%3,96153.85%2473.36%-814-11.06%7,355
Snohomish 240,09957.41%161,37138.59%16,7514.01%78,72818.82%418,221
Spokane 131,16345.69%145,33850.63%10,5813.69%-14,175-4.94%287,082
Stevens 7,49226.52%19,89570.43%8593.04%-12,403-43.91%28,246
Thurston 95,66358.14%62,28237.85%6,5924.01%33,38120.29%164,537
Wahkiakum 1,20439.32%1,75757.38%1013.30%-553-18.06%3,062
Walla Walla 13,10644.32%15,47652.34%9863.33%-2,370-8.02%29,568
Whatcom 83,29560.42%49,21335.70%5,3603.89%34,08224.72%137,868
Whitman 10,48052.33%8,69943.44%8484.23%1,7818.89%20,027
Yakima 36,70641.36%49,36855.63%2,6773.02%-12,662-14.27%88,751
Totals2,245,84957.23%1,530,92339.01%147,4713.76%714,92618.22%3,924,243

By congressional district

Harris won seven of 10 congressional districts, with the remaining three going to Trump, including one that elected a Democrat. [40]

DistrictHarrisTrumpRepresentative
1st 62.15%33.68% Suzan DelBene
2nd 59.84%36.33% Rick Larsen
3rd 46.67%49.95% Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
4th 38.11%58.66% Dan Newhouse
5th 42.85%53.56% Cathy McMorris Rodgers (118th Congress)
Michael Baumgartner (119th Congress)
6th 57.72%38.56% Derek Kilmer (118th Congress)
Emily Randall (119th Congress)
7th 85.32%10.78% Pramila Jayapal
8th 50.93%45.20% Kim Schrier
9th 68.44%27.49% Adam Smith
10th 57.04%39.14% Marilyn Strickland

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. "Another candidate" with 2%
  3. "Someone else" with 9%
  4. "Someone else" with 13%
  5. "Someone else" with 22%; "I would not vote" with 1%
  6. "Someone else" with 11%; "I would not vote" with 2%
  7. 1 2 "Someone else" with 10%
  8. "Someone else" with 12%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 This poll was sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute
  2. Poll sponsored by KOMO-TV
  3. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING-TV, & University of Washington Information School
  4. 1 2 3 4 5 Poll sponsored by Crosscut.com
  5. 1 2 Poll sponsored by The Independent Center
  6. 1 2 3 Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  7. Poll sponsored by Concerned Taxpayers of Washington State PAC

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References

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  3. Smith, Helen (November 6, 2024). "Clallam County voted for losing presidential candidate for first time in 40 years". KING-TV.
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