2024 New York's 3rd congressional district special election

Last updated

2024 New York's 3rd congressional district special election
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←  2022 February 13, 2024 November 2024  →
New York's 3rd congressional district
  TomSuozzi118thCongress (cropped).jpg Mazi Pilip (cropped).jpg
Nominee Tom Suozzi Mazi Melesa Pilip
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Conservative
Popular vote93,18379,290
Percentage53.92%45.88%
2024 New York's 3rd congressional district special election results map by county.svg
2024 New York's 3rd congressional district special election results map by precinct.svg
Suozzi:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Pilip:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No votes
U.S. Representative before election

George Santos
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Tom Suozzi
Democratic

The 2024 New York's 3rd congressional district special election was held on February 13, 2024, to fill the vacant seat in New York's 3rd congressional district for the remainder of the 118th United States Congress. The seat became vacant after the expulsion of Republican George Santos on December 1, 2023. Considered a suburban swing seat, political analysts predicted a competitive and expensive election for both parties. [1] [2] The early voting period ran from February 3 to February 11, 2024. [3] [4]

Contents

Republicans nominated Nassau County legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip, while Democrats nominated Tom Suozzi, the former U.S. representative for this district and Santos's predecessor. Suozzi defeated Pilip, reclaiming the seat for Democrats. [5] This was the first time that a New York congressional seat changed parties in a special election since 2011.

Background

Republican George Santos was elected to Congress in 2022 from New York's 3rd district. Weeks later, The New York Times reported that he had misrepresented his background during the campaign. [6] Santos confirmed the allegations against him were true soon after, but refused to resign from his seat. [7] After a formal inquiry by the House Ethics Committee, he was expelled from the House of Representatives on December 1, 2023, by a vote of 311 to 114. At the time of the expulsion, he was indicted on 23 federal charges related to fraud. [8] Santos was the first representative to be expelled in two decades and the first since the Civil War to be expelled before any criminal conviction. [9]

Nominees

New York does not use primary elections when filling vacancies. Instead, party officials in the affected counties (in this case, Nassau and Queens) are responsible for choosing nominees. [10]

Democratic Party

Democrats selected Tom Suozzi as the party's nominee on December 7, 2023. [11] He had previously represented the district in the House from 2017 to 2023. Before that, he served as the Nassau County executive and the mayor of Glen Cove, and had run for governor in 2006 and 2022. [12]

Republican Party

On December 14, 2023, Republicans selected Mazi Melesa Pilip as their nominee to replace Santos. [13] She previously served in the Israel Defense Forces, and has represented the 10th legislative district in the Nassau County Legislature since 2022. [14] She was a registered Democrat who held office as a Republican. [15]

Minor parties

New York allows fusion voting in elections, prompting minor parties to nominate candidates on their ballot lines. The Conservative Party of New York State nominated Pilip. [16] Suozzi declined to seek the support of the Working Families Party, despite having accepted the party's nomination in past election cycles. [17] [18]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [19] TossupJanuary 23, 2024
Inside Elections [20] TossupFebruary 9, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [21] TossupFebruary 7, 2024
Elections Daily [22] Lean D (flip)February 5, 2024
CNalysis [23] Lean D (flip)February 12, 2024

Endorsements

Mazi Melesa Pilip (R)

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Local officials

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Political parties

Tom Suozzi (D)

U.S. senators

U.S representatives

State governors

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Political parties

Declined to endorse

U.S. executive branch officials

Organizations

Debate

2024 New York's 3rd congressional district special election debates
No.DateHostModeratorLinks Republican Democratic
 P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee W  Withdrawn
Mazi Melesa Pilip Tom Suozzi
1 [89] February 8, 2024 News 12 Long Island Rich Barrabi YouTube PP

News 12 Long Island hosted a debate between Suozzi and Pilip on February 8, 2024. [90] Suozzi's campaign had proposed additional debates to be hosted by WABC-TV, WNBC, and NY1. However, Pilip declined to participate in any of them, telling The Jewish Star that she did not have much time for debates given the short campaign schedule. [91] [92]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Mazi Pilip (R)$1,342,835$714,273$628,561
Tom Suozzi (D)$4,514,693$2,360,689$2,217,239
Source: Federal Election Commission [93]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Mazi Melesa
Pilip (R)		Tom
Suozzi (D)		Undecided
JL Partners [94] [A] February 10–12, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%45%46%9%
Siena College [95] [B] February 3–6, 2024694 (LV)± 4.2%44%48%7%
Emerson College [96] [C] February 4–5, 2024742 (VLV/AV)± 3.5%47%50%3%
48%52%–
Emerson College [97] [C] January 13–15, 2024975 (RV)± 3.1%42%45%9%
Opinion Diagnostics (R) [98] [D] November 30, 2023900 (LV)± 3.3%40%43%17%
Hypothetical polling

Kellen Curry vs. Tom Suozzi

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Kellen
Curry (R)		Tom
Suozzi (D)		Undecided
Opinion Diagnostics (R) [98] [D] November 30, 2023900 (LV)± 3.3%39%43%18%

Mike Sapraicone vs. Tom Suozzi

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Mike
Sapraicone (R)		Tom
Suozzi (D)		Undecided
Opinion Diagnostics (R) [98] [D] November 30, 2023900 (LV)± 3.3%38%45%17%

Results

2024 New York's 3rd congressional district special election [99]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Tom Suozzi 93,183 53.92 +9.66
Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip69,77840.38−8.97
Conservative Mazi Melesa Pilip9,5125.50+1.09
Total Mazi Melesa Pilip 79,29045.88−7.88
Write-in 3370.20N/A
Total votes172,810 100.00
Democratic gain from Republican
By county
County Suozzi
Democratic 		Pilip
Republican 		Write-inMarginTotal votes
# %#%#%#%
Nassau (part)77,57552.6169,61047.212560.187,9655.40147,441
Queens (part)15,60861.529,68038.16810.325,92823.3725,369
Total93,18353.9279,29045.883370.2013,8938.04172,810

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    VLV – very likely voters
    AV – already voted
    V – unclear

Partisan clients

  1. ↑ Poll sponsored by the New York Post
  2. ↑ Poll sponsored by Newsday
  3. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
  4. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Curry's campaign

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References

  1. ↑ Stewart, Kyle (December 1, 2023). "George Santos was expelled from the House — what happens next?". NBC News . Retrieved December 2, 2023.
  2. ↑ Wasserman, Dave (December 1, 2023). "NY-03: With Santos Expulsion Likely, Toss Up Special Looms on Long Island". The Cook Political Report.
  3. ↑ "Upcoming Elections 2024". Board of Elections in the City of New York. Retrieved January 24, 2024.
  4. ↑ "Special Election: February 13, 2024". Nassau County Board of Elections. Retrieved January 24, 2024.
  5. ↑ "Democrat Tom Suozzi wins New York race to succeed George Santos in Congress". AP News. February 13, 2024. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
  6. ↑ Who Is Rep.-Elect George Santos? His Résumé May Be Largely Fiction., New York Times, December 19, 2022
  7. ↑ Rep.-elect George Santos admits to lying about bio, but says he still intends to serve in Congress, CNN Politics, December 27, 2022
  8. ↑ Fetterman says he sent ‘ethically-challenged’ Menendez a Cameo video from Santos, The Hill
  9. ↑ Sangal, Aditi; Shelton, Shania (December 1, 2023). "House expels GOP Rep. George Santos over ethics violations". CNN . Retrieved December 2, 2023.
  10. ↑ Bowman, Bridget (December 1, 2023). "George Santos' exit sets up a competitive special election". NBC News . Retrieved December 1, 2023.
  11. ↑ Shepherd, Bridget; Bowman (December 7, 2023). "New York Democrats pick Tom Suozzi as their candidate for George Santos' seat". NBC News . Retrieved December 7, 2023.
  12. ↑ Shepherd, Bridget; Bowman (December 7, 2023). "New York Democrats pick Tom Suozzi as their candidate for George Santos' seat". NBC News . Retrieved December 7, 2023.
  13. ↑ LaRocco, Paul (December 14, 2023). "GOP picks Mazi Melesa Pilip to run in special election to replace ousted George Santos, former Rep. Pete King confirms". Newsday. Retrieved December 14, 2023.
  14. ↑ "This one-time refugee and former Israeli paratrooper just won a seat in her county legislature". The Forward. November 29, 2021. Retrieved December 14, 2023.
  15. ↑ Cuza, Bobby (December 14, 2023). "GOP nominates Nassau legislator Mazi Pilip to run for Santos' seat". NY1.
  16. ↑ Cuza, Bobby (December 14, 2023). "GOP nominates Nassau legislator Mazi Pilip to run for Santos' seat". NY1 . Retrieved December 15, 2023.
  17. ↑ Spector, Joseph; Reisman, Nick; Ngo, Emily (December 15, 2023). "How Delgado will help House Democrats". Politico . Retrieved December 15, 2023.
  18. ↑ "November 3, 2020 General Election Certification" (PDF). New York State Board of Elections. September 17, 2020. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 24, 2020. Retrieved September 25, 2020.
  19. ↑ "NY-03: Democrats Have Reasons for Cautious Optimism in Special Election Sprint". Cook Political Report. January 9, 2024.
  20. ↑ "First 2024 House Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved December 7, 2023.
  21. ↑ "Initial House Ratings: Battle for Majority Starts as a Toss-up". Sabato's Crystal Ball. February 7, 2024. Retrieved February 7, 2024.
  22. ↑ Cunningham, Eric (February 5, 2024). "2024 House of Representatives Ratings Update: Six Races Updated, Democrats Favored in NY-03 Special". Elections Daily.
  23. ↑ @ChazNuttycombe (February 12, 2024). "Final rating for NY-03: Lean Democratic (FLIP), ~7-in-10 chance of a Suozzi win" (Tweet). Retrieved February 13, 2024– via Twitter.
  24. ↑ "Can Tom Suozzi win in an increasingly conservative Long Island?". January 8, 2024.
  25. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Lewis, Rebecca L. (December 21, 2023). "Who's endorsing Tom Suozzi and Mazi Melesa Pilip in NY-3?". City & State .
  26. 1 2 3 4 5 Marans, Daniel (January 29, 2024). "Top House Republican Rallies For Candidate Mazi Pilip On Long Island". Yahoo! News . Retrieved January 30, 2024.
  27. 1 2 3 4 "Endorsements Roll In For Hopeful Santos Replacement Mazi Melesa Pilip". 5TJT. December 17, 2023. Retrieved January 8, 2024.
  28. 1 2 Celona, Larry (January 29, 2024). "NYPD Sergeants' Union endorses Mazi Pilip for George Santos' vacant seat". New York Post. Retrieved February 7, 2024.
  29. ↑ @nassaucountypba (January 16, 2024). "Nassau County PBA supports Mazi Pilip in February 13th special election" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  30. ↑ "2024 Special Election: 3rd Congressional District". January 29, 2024. Retrieved February 4, 2024.
  31. ↑ "Border patrol union endorses Mazi Pilip in race to replace George Santos". February 7, 2024. Retrieved February 7, 2024.
  32. ↑ "Asian Wave Alliance endorses Mazi Pilip for congressional NY3 special election". Asian Wave Alliance. February 2, 2024. Retrieved February 4, 2024.
  33. ↑ "2024 Candidates". Maggie's List. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
  34. 1 2 3 "A Congressional Election". Five Towns Jewish Times. December 21, 2023. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
  35. ↑ "RJC Endorses Mazi Pilip in NY-3 Special Election". Republican Jewish Coalition. Retrieved December 14, 2023.
  36. ↑ "Mazie Pilip For Congress In Feb.13 Special Election". The Jewish Press. January 31, 2024. Retrieved February 4, 2024.
  37. ↑ "Halt Dems' damage by backing this GOPer: The Post endorses Mazi Pilip for Congress". New York Post. February 1, 2024. Retrieved February 4, 2024.
  38. ↑ Rivoli, Dan. "Special election race between Tom Suozzi and Mazi Pilip is heating up". Spectrum News. Retrieved January 20, 2024.
  39. ↑ Bowman, Bridget (December 19, 2023). "New York Republicans choose ex-Israel Defense Forces soldier as nominee to replace George Santos". NBC News. Retrieved January 20, 2024.
  40. ↑ Ngo, Emily (February 9, 2024). "It took cinematic levels of dysfunction for Democrats to finally get aggressive on their border strategy". Politico. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  41. 1 2 "DCCC Chair Statement on Tom Suozzi's Nomination in NY-03". DCCC. December 7, 2023. Retrieved January 18, 2024.
  42. 1 2 "Congressman Tom Suozzi Endorsed in New York Special Election". Giffords. January 11, 2024. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  43. 1 2 Coltin, Jeff; Reisman, Nick; Ngo, Emily (December 5, 2023). "Hochul grins and bears it with Suozzi". Politico. Retrieved January 18, 2024.
  44. 1 2 "Jewish Democratic Council of America Endorses Tom Suozzi for Congress And Pledges Competitive Ad Buy". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved December 19, 2023.
  45. ↑ "Rep. Krishnamoorthi rallies with South Asians in Long Island to support Tom Suozzi one week before election day - The American Bazaar". The American Bazaar. February 9, 2024. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  46. 1 2 3 "NewDem Action Fund Endorses Tom Suozzi for New York's Third Congressional District". NewDem Action Fund. October 24, 2023. Archived from the original on October 24, 2023. Retrieved October 24, 2023.
  47. 1 2 "AAPI Phone Bank for Tom Suozzi (NY-03) with Bel Leong Hong, and Congressman Lieu".
  48. 1 2 "ASPIRE PAC Endorses Tom Suozzi in NY-03 Special Election". aspirepac.org. Retrieved December 21, 2023.
  49. 1 2 "CHC BOLD PAC Endorses Tom Suozzi in the Special Election for New York's 3rd Congressional District". www.boldpac.com. December 20, 2023. Retrieved December 21, 2023.
  50. ↑ "Phone Bank for Tom Suozzi (NY-03) with Rep. Abigail Spanberger".
  51. ↑ "Hochul, backing Tom Suozzi, calls race for Santos' seat her 'top priority'". New York Daily News. February 2, 2024. Retrieved February 3, 2024.
  52. ↑ Robertson, Nick (December 7, 2023). "New York Democrats suspends campaign for Santos's former seat, backs Suozzi". The Hill.
  53. ↑ Lane, Laura (November 17, 2023). "Democratic candidates dropping out of race for New York's 3rd Congressional District". Long Island Herald. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
  54. 1 2 "DMFI PAC endorses Tom Suozzi in the NY-03 special election". DMFI PAC. January 8, 2024. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  55. 1 2 "Human Rights Campaign PAC Endorses Former New York Representative Tom Suozzi for Congress". Human Rights Campaign. December 22, 2023. Retrieved December 24, 2023.
  56. 1 2 "Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Tom Suozzi in NY-03 Special Election". Reproductive Freedom for All. January 30, 2024. Retrieved January 30, 2024.
  57. ↑ "A special election is happening on February 13 in Long Island!". Instagram. Retrieved January 31, 2024.
  58. ↑ Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen (BRS) [@BRS_LaborUnion] (December 11, 2023). "@Tom_Suozzi for Congress!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  59. ↑ "CSEA Endorsements: Long Island Region 1". CSEA. Retrieved January 22, 2024.
  60. ↑ CWA District 1 [@CWADistrict1] (December 7, 2023). "Endorsement Alert!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  61. ↑ "Endorsed by Steamfitters Local 638". Facebook. Retrieved January 3, 2024.
  62. ↑ "Local One PAC has endorsed Tom Souzzi for Congress". Facebook. Retrieved January 3, 2024.
  63. ↑ Erikson, Chris (January 3, 2024). "Time to Get to Work". Local Union No.3 IBEW. Retrieved January 15, 2024.
  64. ↑ "IBEW Local 1049 is proud to support Tom Suozzi for Congress, representing New York's Third Congressional District". Facebook. Retrieved January 31, 2024.
  65. ↑ "Local 300 Endorses Tom Suozzi for the 3rd District of New York in the House of Representatives" (PDF). National Postal Mail Handlers Union, Local 300. October 16, 2023. Retrieved January 5, 2024.
  66. ↑ "Our endorsements". LIUNA NY. Retrieved January 3, 2024.
  67. 1 2 3 "Battleground NY in-person canvass for Tom Suozzi in NY03".
  68. ↑ "NYSUT endorses Tom Suozzi in CD3 special election". www.nysut.org. Retrieved December 19, 2023.
  69. ↑ "PEF members in the 3rd Congressional district, make your plan to vote on Feb. 13!". Facebook. Retrieved January 31, 2024.
  70. 1 2 Local 338 RWDSU/UFCW [@Local338] (January 20, 2024). "Local 338 was out knocking doors again today in support of @Tom_Suozzi" (Tweet) – via Twitter.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  71. ↑ TWU Local 100 [@TWULocal100] (January 11, 2024). "With crucial elections for the US Congress coming up, we are throwing our support behind @Tom_Suozzi to take the CD3 seat just vacated by George Santos" (Tweet) – via Twitter.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  72. ↑ "Our Union supports those who support our members! Simply put, when asked, Representative Suozzi delivers for rail workers and their families". Facebook. Retrieved January 25, 2024.
  73. ↑ "Plumbers Local 1 endorses Tom Suozzi for U.S. Representative for NY's 3rd Congressional District!". Facebook. Retrieved January 30, 2024.
  74. ↑ "Special election in New York Congressional District 3". United Federation of Teachers. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  75. ↑ Blank, David (January 8, 2024). "Retiree Group Endorses Tom Suozzi for Election to U.S. House". Alliance for Retired Americans. Retrieved January 15, 2024.
  76. ↑ "Brady PAC Endorses Tom Suozzi in NY-03 Special Election". Brady PAC. December 16, 2023. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
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  78. ↑ "Presenting the official Spring 2024 Harvard Dems Endorsement Results! Congratulations to all who were endorsed! 🫶🏻✨". www.instagram.com. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
  79. 1 2 "Youth Led Phone Bank for Tom Suozzi (NY-3)!".
  80. ↑ "Suozzi Endorsed by Major Environmental Groups in NY-3 Special Election". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  81. ↑ "NY-Rockland and Orange Phone Bank for Suozzi CD3 Special Election". Gun Sense Voter. Retrieved January 12, 2024.
  82. ↑ "Suozzi Endorsed by Major Environmental Groups in NY-3 Special Election". NRDC Action Fund. January 11, 2024. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  83. ↑ "2024 Endorsements". www.sierraclubindependentaction.org. Retrieved October 20, 2023.
  84. ↑ "Special Election: Help flip NY-03!". Swing Left. Retrieved February 6, 2024.
  85. ↑ Board, New York Daily News Editorial (February 2, 2024). "Vote Tom Suozzi for Congress: The Daily News endorses him for a return to sincerity and sanity". New York Daily News. Retrieved February 3, 2024.
  86. ↑ Board, The Editorial (February 3, 2024). "Newsday endorses Thomas Suozzi in 3rd Congressional District special election". Newsday. Retrieved February 3, 2024.
  87. ↑ Bowman, Bridget (December 7, 2023). "New York Democrats pick Tom Suozzi as their candidate for George Santos' seat". NBC News. Retrieved January 20, 2024.
  88. ↑ "Hear why Trump didn't endorse the Republican candidate to replace Santos". CNN. February 21, 2024.
  89. ↑ Malaszczyk, Michael (December 28, 2023). "Tom Suozzi, Mazi Pilip Set For Feb. 8 Debate". www.longislandpress.com. Long Island Press.
  90. ↑ "Third District voters have mixed reactions following Pilip, Suozzi heated debate". News 12 Long Island. February 9, 2024. Retrieved February 13, 2024.
  91. ↑ Baker, Tim (January 24, 2024). "MAZI PILIP: 'I grew up there. I know Israel from the bottom up.'". The Jewish Star. Retrieved January 25, 2024. I don't have that much time to have debates. We're talking about a very short time to the election.
  92. ↑ Barmash, Jerry (December 27, 2023). "Republican Pilip Agrees To At Least 1 Debate With Suozzi". Patch.
  93. ↑ "2024 Election United States House – New York 3rd". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved November 14, 2023.
  94. ↑ JL Partners
  95. ↑ Siena College
  96. ↑ Emerson College
  97. ↑ Emerson College
  98. 1 2 3 Opinion Diagnostics (R)
  99. ↑ "2024 Special - Representative in Congress - Congressional District 3". New York State Board of Elections. February 13, 2024. Retrieved March 15, 2024.

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