2024 New York's 3rd congressional district special election

Last updated

2024 New York's 3rd congressional district special election
Flag of New York.svg
  2022 February 13, 2024 November 2024  

New York's 3rd congressional district
  Tom Suozzi 118th Congress portrait.jpg Mazi Pilip (cropped).jpg
Nominee Tom Suozzi Mazi Melesa Pilip
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Conservative
Popular vote93,18379,290
Percentage53.92%45.88%

2024 New York's 3rd congressional district special election results map by county.svg
2024 New York's 3rd congressional district special election results map by precinct.svg
Suozzi:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Pilip:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No votes

U.S. Representative before election

George Santos
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Tom Suozzi
Democratic

The 2024 New York's 3rd congressional district special election was held on February 13, 2024, to fill the vacant seat in New York's 3rd congressional district for the remainder of the 118th United States Congress. The seat became vacant after the expulsion of Republican George Santos on December 1, 2023. Considered a suburban swing seat, political analysts predicted a competitive and expensive election for both parties. [1] [2] The early voting period ran from February 3 to February 11, 2024. [3] [4]

Contents

Republicans nominated Nassau County legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip, while Democrats nominated Tom Suozzi, the former U.S. representative for this district and Santos's predecessor. Suozzi defeated Pilip, reclaiming the seat for Democrats. [5] This was the first time that a New York congressional seat changed parties in a special election since 2011.

Background

Republican George Santos was elected to Congress in 2022 from New York's 3rd district. Weeks later, The New York Times reported that he had misrepresented his background during the campaign. [6] Santos confirmed the allegations against him were true soon after, but refused to resign from his seat. [7] After a formal inquiry by the House Ethics Committee, he was expelled from the House of Representatives on December 1, 2023, by a vote of 311 to 114. At the time of the expulsion, he was indicted on 23 federal charges related to fraud. [8] Santos was the first representative to be expelled in two decades and the first since the Civil War to be expelled before any criminal conviction. [9]

Nominees

New York does not use primary elections when filling vacancies. Instead, party officials in the affected counties (in this case, Nassau and Queens) are responsible for choosing nominees. [10]

Democratic Party

Democrats selected Tom Suozzi as the party's nominee on December 7, 2023. [11] He had previously represented the district in the House from 2017 to 2023. Before that, he served as the Nassau County executive and the mayor of Glen Cove, and had run for governor in 2006 and 2022. [12]

Republican Party

On December 14, 2023, Republicans selected Mazi Melesa Pilip as their nominee to replace Santos. [13] She previously served in the Israel Defense Forces, and has represented the 10th legislative district in the Nassau County Legislature since 2022. [14] She is a registered Democrat, though she holds office as a Republican. [15]

Minor parties

New York allows fusion voting in elections, prompting minor parties to nominate candidates on their ballot lines. The Conservative Party of New York State nominated Pilip. [16] Suozzi declined to seek the support of the Working Families Party, despite having accepted the party's nomination in past election cycles. [17] [18]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [19] TossupJanuary 23, 2024
Inside Elections [20] TossupFebruary 9, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [21] TossupFebruary 7, 2024
Elections Daily [22] Lean D (flip)February 5, 2024
CNalysis [23] Lean D (flip)February 12, 2024

Endorsements

Mazi Melesa Pilip (R)
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Political parties
Tom Suozzi (D)
U.S. senators
U.S representatives
State governors
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Political parties
Declined to endorse
U.S. executive branch officials
Organizations

Debate

2024 New York's 3rd congressional district special election debates
No.DateHostModeratorLinks Republican Democratic
 P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee W  Withdrawn
Mazi Melesa Pilip Tom Suozzi
1 [89] February 8, 2024 News 12 Long Island Rich Barrabi YouTube PP

News 12 Long Island hosted a debate between Suozzi and Pilip on February 8, 2024. [90] Suozzi's campaign had proposed additional debates to be hosted by WABC-TV, WNBC, and NY1. However, Pilip declined to participate in any of them, telling The Jewish Star that she did not have much time for debates given the short campaign schedule. [91] [92]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Mazi Pilip (R)$1,342,835$714,273$628,561
Tom Suozzi (D)$4,514,693$2,360,689$2,217,239
Source: Federal Election Commission [93]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Mazi Melesa
Pilip (R)
Tom
Suozzi (D)
Undecided
JL Partners [upper-alpha 1] February 10–12, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%45%46%9%
Siena College [upper-alpha 2] February 3–6, 2024694 (LV)± 4.2%44%48%7%
Emerson College [upper-alpha 3] February 4–5, 2024742 (VLV/AV)± 3.5%47%50%3%
48%52%
Emerson College [upper-alpha 3] January 13–15, 2024975 (RV)± 3.1%42%45%9%
Opinion Diagnostics (R) [upper-alpha 4] November 30, 2023900 (LV)± 3.3%40%43%17%
Hypothetical polling
Kellen Curry vs. Tom Suozzi
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Kellen
Curry (R)
Tom
Suozzi (D)
Undecided
Opinion Diagnostics (R) [upper-alpha 4] November 30, 2023900 (LV)± 3.3%39%43%18%
Mike Sapraicone vs. Tom Suozzi
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Mike
Sapraicone (R)
Tom
Suozzi (D)
Undecided
Opinion Diagnostics (R) [upper-alpha 4] November 30, 2023900 (LV)± 3.3%38%45%17%

Results

2024 New York's 3rd congressional district special election [94]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Tom Suozzi 93,183 53.92 +9.66
Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip69,77840.38-8.97
Conservative Mazi Melesa Pilip9,5125.50+1.09
Total Mazi Melesa Pilip 79,29045.88-7.88
Write-in 3370.20N/A
Total votes172,810 100.00
Democratic gain from Republican
By county
County Suozzi
Democratic
Pilip
Republican
Write-inMarginTotal votes
# %#%#%#%
Nassau 77,57552.6169,61047.212560.187,9655.40147,441
Queens 15,60861.529,68038.16810.325,92823.3725,369
Total93,18353.9279,29045.883370.2013,8938.04172,810

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    VLV – very likely voters
    AV – already voted
    V – unclear
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by the New York Post
  2. Poll sponsored by Newsday
  3. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
  4. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Curry's campaign

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  91. Baker, Tim (January 24, 2024). "MAZI PILIP: 'I grew up there. I know Israel from the bottom up.'". The Jewish Star. Retrieved January 25, 2024. I don't have that much time to have debates. We're talking about a very short time to the election.
  92. Barmash, Jerry (December 27, 2023). "Republican Pilip Agrees To At Least 1 Debate With Suozzi". Patch.
  93. "2024 Election United States House – New York 3rd". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved November 14, 2023.
  94. "2024 Special - Representative in Congress - Congressional District 3". New York State Board of Elections. February 13, 2024. Retrieved March 15, 2024.
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