Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team

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Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
Formation2020
Founded at Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine
HeadquartersLondon, England
ServicesReports relating to the COVID-19 pandemic to inform governments and public health agencies around the world
Membership
50 scientists
Leader
Professor Neil Ferguson
Affiliations MRC GIDA, Jameel Institute

The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team is a group of experts from Imperial College London studying the COVID-19 pandemic and informing the government of the United Kingdom, and governments and public health agencies around the world. [1] [2] [3] The team comprises scientists from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, the Jameel Institute, the Imperial College Business School and the Department of Mathematics. [4] The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team is led by Professor Neil Ferguson, Director of the Jameel Institute and MRC GIDA. [5] [6]

Contents

On 16 March 2020 the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team produced a research forecast of various scenarios for spread of the disease in the United Kingdom and the United States. Without any mitigation their forecast showed local health care capabilities vastly overwhelmed by the epidemic wave. Periodic cycles of quarantine followed by softer social distancing were recommended, with quarantines in effect two-thirds of the time. [7] On 30 March, a study on 11 European countries was published. [8] It provided estimates of the situation as of 28 March (observed and modelised with CovidSim), and projections for 31 March given current expectations, no action, and the difference. It also provided a list of government policies and their respective absolute dates. [8] As of 2 May 2021, the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team has produced 43 reports. [9]

Reports

COVID-19 reports
RankDateTitle
432021-03-24 Quantifying the impact of vaccine hesitancy in prolonging the need for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic
422020-12-31 Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 in England: insights from linking epidemiological and genetic data
412020-12-22 The 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England: key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions
402020-12-10 Optimal scheduling rules for elective care to minimize years of life lost during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: an application to England
392020-12-01 Characterising COVID-19 epidemic dynamics and mortality under-ascertainment in Khartoum, Sudan
382020-11-27 SARS-CoV-2 setting-specific transmission rates: a systematic review and meta-analysis
372020-11-25 Children’s role in the COVID-19 pandemic: as systematic review of susceptibility, severity, and transmissibility
362020-11-16 Modelling ICU capacity under different epidemiological scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic in three western European countries
352020-11-16 How can we keep schools and universities open? Differentiating closures by economic sector to optimize social and economic activity while containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission
342020-10-29 Infection Fatality Ratio Estimates from Seroprevalence
332020-09-25 Modelling the allocation and impact of a COVID-19 vaccine
322020-09-17 Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States
312020-09-15 Estimating under-ascertainment of COVID-19 mortality: an analysis of novel data sources to provide insight into COVID-19 dynamics in Damascus, Syria
302020-07-03 The COVID-19 epidemic trends and control measures in mainland China
292020-07-01 The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on all-cause attendances to emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study
282020-06-18 "Excess non-COVID-19 deaths in England and Wales between 29th February and 5th June 2020"
272020-06-15 Adapting hospital capacity to meet changing demands during the COVID-19 pandemic
262020-06-08 Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission
252020-05-29 Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions
242020-05-29 Anonymised & aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests initial compliance with COVID19 social distancing interventions was high & geographically consistent across UK
232020-05-21 State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States
222020-05-12 Equity in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: an assessment of the direct and indirect impacts on disadvantaged and vulnerable populations in low- and lower middle-income countries
212020-05-08 Estimating COVID-19 cases and reproduction number in Brazil
202020-05-04 Using mobility to estimate the transmission intensity of COVID-19 in Italy: A subnational analysis with future scenarios
192020-05-01 The Potential Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic on HIV, TB and Malaria in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
182020-05-01 The potential public health impact of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa
172020-04-29 Clinical characteristics and predictors of outcomes of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in a London NHS Trust: a retrospective cohort study
162020-04-23 Role of testing in COVID-19 control
The report estimates COVID-19 testing's impact as reducing transmission by 25~33% from populations tested, but also allowing early release from quarantines and creation of Immunity passport based on antibody tests. Tests face technical, legal, and ethical challenges. Tests while helping are complementary to other more potent actions such as self-isolation when symptoms arises, contact tracing and quarantines.
152020-04-17 Strengthening hospital capacity for the COVID-19 pandemic
Reports presents the Jameel Institute pandemic planner "a hospital planning tool to calculate how much capacity in terms of beds, staff and ventilators is obtained by implementing healthcare provision interventions affecting the management of patient care in hospitals".
142020-04-03 Online Community Involvement in COVID-19 Research & Outbreak Response: Early Insights from a UK Perspective
132020-03-30 Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries
122020-03-26 The global impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression
112020-03-24 Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment
102020-03-20 Public response to UK Government recommendations on COVID-19: population survey, 17–18 March 2020
92020-03-16 Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand
This report made an informed estimate of impact for both UK and the US, according to different strategies. The dire impact expressed helped convert the Johnson government from laisser-faire to mitigative strategies.
82020-03-11 Symptom progression of COVID-19
72020-03-09 Estimating infection prevalence in Wuhan City from repatriation flights
62020-02-21 Relative sensitivity of international surveillance
52020-02-15 Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2
42020-02-10 Severity of 2019 novel coronavirus (nCoV)
32020-01-25 Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV
22020-01-22 Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in Wuhan City, China
12020-01-17 Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in Wuhan City, China

Estimates

11 European countries estimates on 28 March 2020

Population infected by country
ICCRT's model projection for 28 March [8] WHO lab-confirmed 29 March
CountryPopulation[ citation needed ]Infected

(95% range)

Infected

(mean %)

Cases

(est.)

CasesDetected

(% of pop.)

Austria8,999,9730.36%–3.1%1.1%9900082910.09%
Belgium11,579,5021.3%–9.7%3.7%42840091340.08%
Denmark5,785,7410.40%–3.1%1.1%6360022010.04%
France65,227,3571.1%–7.4%3.0%1956800371450.06%
Germany83,792,9870.28%–1.8%0.72%603300525470.06%
Italy60,496,0823.2%–26%9.8%5928600924720.15%
Norway5,407,6700.09%–1.2%0.41%2220038450.07%
Spain46,767,5433.7%–41%15%7015100722480.15%
Sweden10,081,9480.85%–8.4%3.1%31250034470.03%
Switzerland8,637,6941.3%–7.6%3.2%276400131520.15%
United Kingdom67,803,4501.2%–5.4%2.7%1830700170930.03%
Note: WHO reporting laboratory-confirmed cases on 29 March, 10am Central European Time.

World estimates for 3 strategies

Estimated impact of suppression strategies over 250 days for 3 different strategies. [10]
Unmitigated Scenario Suppression at 0.2 deaths/100,000/weekSuppression at 1.6 deaths/100,000/week
InfectionsDeathsInfectionsDeathsInfectionsDeaths
East Asia & Pacific2,117,131,00015,303,00092,544,000442,000632,619,0003,315,000
Europe & Central Asia801,770,0007,276,00061,578,000279,000257,706,0001,397,000
Latin America & Caribbean566,993,0003,194,00045,346,000158,000186,595,000729,000
Middle East & North Africa419,138,0001,700,00030,459,000113,000152,262,000594,000
North America326,079,0002,981,00017,730,00092,00090,529,000520,000
South Asia1,737,766,0007,687,000111,703,000475,000629,164,0002,693,000
Sub-Saharan Africa1,044,858,0002,483,000110,164,000298,000454,968,0001,204,000
Total7,013,734,00040,624,000469,523,0001,858,0002,403,843,00010,452,000

See also

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Emerging infectious disease</span> Infectious disease of emerging pathogen, often novel in its outbreak range or transmission mode

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Social distancing</span> Infection control technique by keeping a distance from each other

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Imperial College Faculty of Medicine</span> Faculty of medicine in London, England

The Faculty of Medicine is the academic centre for medical and clinical research and teaching at Imperial College London. It contains the Imperial College School of Medicine, which is the college's undergraduate medical school.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Neil Ferguson (epidemiologist)</span> British epidemiologist and researcher

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CovidSim is an epidemiological model for COVID-19 developed by Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, led by Neil Ferguson. The Imperial College study addresses the question: If complete suppression is not feasible, what is the best strategy combining incomplete suppression and control that is feasible and leads to acceptable outcomes?

The MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis is a Medical Research Council funded research centre at Imperial College London and a WHO collaborating centre. It is part of the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at School of Public Health within the Imperial College Faculty of Medicine. Neil Ferguson is the director of the centre, along with four associate directors: Christl Donnelly, Azra Ghani, Nicholas Grassly, and Timothy Hallett. The centre also collaborates UK Health Protection Agency, and the US Centre for Disease Control. The centre's main research areas are disease outbreak analysis and modelling, vaccines, global health analytics, antimicrobial resistance, and developing methods and tools for studying these areas. The centre was previously called the MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Public health mitigation of COVID-19</span> Measures to halt the spread of the respiratory disease among populations

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The Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics is a research institute at Imperial College London in the fields of epidemiology, mathematical modelling of infectious diseases and emergencies, environmental health, and health economics. Co-founded in 2019 by Imperial College London and Community Jameel, the Jameel Institute is housed in the School of Public Health, within the college's Faculty of Medicine. The mission of the Jameel Institute is "to combat threats from disease worldwide".

References

  1. ↑ "The global impact of Imperial's COVID-19 Response Team | Imperial News | Imperial College London". Imperial News. 11 August 2020. Retrieved 18 November 2020.
  2. ↑ Wilson, Deborah Evanson, Joanna. "COVID-19: six months on the frontline (An Imperial Story)". Imperial College London. Retrieved 18 November 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  3. ↑ Landler, Mark; Castle, Stephen (17 March 2020). "Behind the Virus Report That Jarred the U.S. and the U.K. to Action". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved 30 March 2020.
  4. ↑ "COVID-19 Response Team 2020–2021 report". Imperial College London. Retrieved 23 April 2021.
  5. ↑ "People". Imperial College London. Retrieved 18 November 2020.
  6. ↑ Adam, David (2020). "Special report: The simulations driving the world's response to COVID-19". Nature. 580 (7803): 316–318. Bibcode:2020Natur.580..316A. doi:10.1038/d41586-020-01003-6. PMID   32242115. S2CID   256820433.
  7. ↑ Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team (16 March 2020). "Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand" (PDF).{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  8. 1 2 3 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team (30 March 2020). "Estimating the number of infections and the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries" (PDF). p. 35.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  9. ↑ "COVID-19 reports". Imperial College London. Retrieved 2 May 2021.
  10. ↑ "Report 12 – The global impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression". Imperial College London. Retrieved 4 April 2020.
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