|Founded at||Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine|
|Services||Reports relating to the COVID-19 pandemic to inform governments and public health agencies around the world|
|Professor Neil Ferguson|
|Affiliations||MRC GIDA, Jameel Institute|
The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team is a group of experts from Imperial College London studying the COVID-19 pandemic and informing the government of the United Kingdom, and governments and public health agencies around the world.The team comprises scientists from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, the Jameel Institute, the Imperial College Business School and the Department of Mathematics. The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team is led by Professor Neil Ferguson, Director of the Jameel Institute and MRC GIDA.
On 16 March 2020 the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team produced a research forecast of various scenarios for spread of the disease in the United Kingdom and the United States. Without any mitigation their forecast showed local health care capabilities vastly overwhelmed by the epidemic wave. Periodic cycles of quarantine followed by softer social distancing were recommended, with quarantines in effect two thirds of the time.On 30 March, a study on 11 European countries was published. It provided estimates of the situation as of 28 March (observed and modelised with CovidSim), and projections for 31 March given current expectations, no action, and the difference. It also provided a list of government policies and their respective absolute dates. As of 20 January 2020, the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team has produced 42 reports.
|42||2020-12-31||Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 in England: insights from linking epidemiological and genetic data|
|41||2020-12-22||The 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England: key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions|
|40||2020-12-10||Optimal scheduling rules for elective care to minimize years of life lost during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: an application to England|
|39||2020-12-01||Characterising COVID-19 epidemic dynamics and mortality under-ascertainment in Khartoum, Sudan|
|38||2020-11-27||SARS-CoV-2 setting-specific transmission rates: a systematic review and meta-analysis|
|37||2020-11-25||Children’s role in the COVID-19 pandemic: as systematic review of susceptibility, severity, and transmissibility|
|36||2020-11-16||Modelling ICU capacity under different epidemiological scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic in three western European countries|
|35||2020-11-16||How can we keep schools and universities open? Differentiating closures by economic sector to optimize social and economic activity while containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission|
|34||2020-10-29||Infection Fatality Ratio Estimates from Seroprevalence|
|33||2020-09-25||Modelling the allocation and impact of a COVID-19 vaccine|
|32||2020-09-17||Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States|
|31||2020-09-15||Estimating under-ascertainment of COVID-19 mortality: an analysis of novel data sources to provide insight into COVID-19 dynamics in Damascus, Syria|
|30||2020-07-03||The COVID-19 epidemic trends and control measures in mainland China|
|29||2020-07-01||The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on all-cause attendances to emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study|
|28||2020-06-18||Excess non-COVID-19 deaths in England and Wales between 29th February and 5th June 2020|
|27||2020-06-15||Adapting hospital capacity to meet changing demands during the COVID-19 pandemic|
|26||2020-06-08||Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission|
|25||2020-05-29||Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions|
|24||2020-05-29||Anonymised & aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests initial compliance with COVID19 social distancing interventions was high & geographically consistent across UK|
|23||2020-05-21||State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States|
|22||2020-05-12||Equity in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: an assessment of the direct and indirect impacts on disadvantaged and vulnerable populations in low- and lower middle-income countries|
|21||2020-05-08||Estimating COVID-19 cases and reproduction number in Brazil|
|20||2020-05-04||Using mobility to estimate the transmission intensity of COVID-19 in Italy: A subnational analysis with future scenarios|
|19||2020-05-01||The Potential Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic on HIV, TB and Malaria in Low- and Middle-Income Countries|
|18||2020-05-01||The potential public health impact of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa|
|17||2020-04-29||Clinical characteristics and predictors of outcomes of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in a London NHS Trust: a retrospective cohort study|
|16||2020-04-23||Role of testing in COVID-19 control|
|The report estimates COVID-19 testing's impact as reducing transmission by 25~33% from populations tested, but also allowing early release from quarantines and creation of Immunity passport based on antibody tests. Tests face technical, legal, and ethical challenges. Tests while helping are complementary to other more potent actions such as self-isolation when symptoms arises, contact tracing and quarantines.|
|15||2020-04-17||Strengthening hospital capacity for the COVID-19 pandemic|
|Reports presents the Jameel Institute pandemic planner "a hospital planning tool to calculate how much capacity in terms of beds, staff and ventilators is obtained by implementing healthcare provision interventions affecting the management of patient care in hospitals".|
|14||2020-04-03||Online Community Involvement in COVID-19 Research & Outbreak Response: Early Insights from a UK Perspective|
|13||2020-03-30||Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries|
|12||2020-03-26||The global impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression|
|11||2020-03-24||Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment|
|10||2020-03-20||Public response to UK Government recommendations on COVID-19: population survey, 17-18 March 2020|
|9||2020-03-16||Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand|
|This report made an informed estimate of impact for both UK and the US, according to different strategies. The dire impact expressed helped convert the Jonhson government from laisser-faire to mitigative strategies.|
|8||2020-03-11||Symptom progression of COVID-19|
|7||2020-03-09||Estimating infection prevalence in Wuhan City from repatriation flights|
|6||2020-02-21||Relative sensitivity of international surveillance|
|5||2020-02-15||Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2|
|4||2020-02-10||Severity of 2019 novel coronavirus (nCoV)|
|3||2020-01-25||Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV|
|2||2020-01-22||Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in Wuhan City, China|
|1||2020-01-17||Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in Wuhan City, China|
|Population infected by country|
|ICCRT's model projection for March 28||WHO lab-confirmed March 29|
|Country||Population[ citation needed ]||Infected |
(% of pop.)
|Note: WHO reporting laboratory-confirmed cases on March 29, 10am Central European Time.|
|Estimated impact of suppression strategies over 250 days for 3 different strategies.|
|Unmitigated Scenario||Suppression at 0.2 deaths/100,000/week||Suppression at 1.6 deaths/100,000/week|
|East Asia & Pacific||2,117,131,000||15,303,000||92,544,000||442,000||632,619,000||3,315,000|
|Europe & Central Asia||801,770,000||7,276,000||61,578,000||279,000||257,706,000||1,397,000|
|Latin America & Caribbean||566,993,000||3,194,000||45,346,000||158,000||186,595,000||729,000|
|Middle East & North Africa||419,138,000||1,700,000||30,459,000||113,000||152,262,000||594,000|
The Faculty of Medicine is the academic centre for medical and clinical research and teaching at Imperial College London. It contains the Imperial College School of Medicine, which is the college's undergraduate medical school.
Neil Morris Ferguson is a British epidemiologist and professor of mathematical biology, who specialises in the patterns of spread of infectious disease in humans and animals. He is the director of the Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, and head of the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology in the School of Public Health and Vice-Dean for Academic Development in the Faculty of Medicine, all at Imperial College London.
The COVID-19 pandemic in Armenia is part of the worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. The virus was confirmed to have reached Armenia on 1 March 2020 when its first case was reported. The disease, coronavirus disease 2019, caused by a novel virus known as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, has spread to all of the regions (marz) of Armenia and has caused 3,301 deaths.
The COVID-19 pandemic in Djibouti is part of the worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. The virus spread to Djibouti in March 2020. It is a novel infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Model-based simulations for Djibouti indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t has been rising since August 2020 and currently exceeds 1.
The COVID-19 pandemic in Burundi is part of the ongoing worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. The virus was confirmed to have reached Burundi on 25 March 2020.
The COVID-19 pandemic in The Gambia is part of the worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. The virus was confirmed to have reached The Gambia in March 2020.
The COVID-19 pandemic in Guinea-Bissau is part of the worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. The virus was confirmed to have reached Guinea-Bissau in March 2020.
The COVID-19 pandemic in Liberia is part of the ongoing worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. The virus was confirmed to have reached Liberia in March 2020.
The COVID-19 pandemic in Chad is part of the ongoing worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. The virus was confirmed to have reached Chad in March 2020. As the third least developed nation in the world, according to the HDI in 2019, Chad has faced unique economic, social, and political challenges under the strain of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Azra Catherine Hilary Ghani is a British epidemiologist who is a professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Imperial College London. Her research considers the mathematical modelling of infectious diseases, including malaria, bovine spongiform encephalopathy and coronavirus. She has worked with the World Health Organization on their technical strategy for malaria. She is associate director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis.
Outbreak response or outbreak control measures are acts which attempt to minimize the spread of or effects of a disease outbreak. Outbreak response includes aspects of general disease control such as maintaining adequate hygiene, but may also include responses that extend beyond traditional healthcare settings and are unique to an outbreak, such as physical distancing, contact tracing, mapping of disease clusters, or quarantine. Some measures such as isolation are also useful in preventing an outbreak from occurring in the first place.
In epidemiology, a non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) is any method to reduce the spread of an epidemic disease without requiring pharmaceutical drug treatments. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) points to Personal NPIs, Community NPIs and Environmental NPIs. NPI have been recommended for pandemic influenza at both local and global levels, and studied at large scale during the 2009 swine flu pandemic and the COVID-19 pandemic. NPIs are a set of measures that can be utilized at any time, and are used in the period between the emergence of an epidemic disease, and the deployment of an effective vaccine.
Helen Ward is a British physician who is Professor of Public Health at Imperial College London and director of the patient experience research centre. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Ward called for the Government of the United Kingdom to be more proactive in their response to the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2.
The COVID-19 pandemic in Lesotho is part of the ongoing worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. The virus was confirmed to have reached Lesotho on 13 May 2020.
The COVID-19 pandemic has had many impacts on global health beyond those caused by the COVID-19 disease itself. It has led to a reduction in hospital visits for other reasons. There have been 38 per cent fewer hospital visits for heart attack symptoms in the United States and 40 per cent fewer in Spain. The head of cardiology at the University of Arizona said, "My worry is some of these people are dying at home because they're too scared to go to the hospital." There is also concern that people with strokes and appendicitis are not seeking timely treatment. Shortages of medical supplies have impacted people with various conditions.
CovidSim is an epidemiological model for COVID-19 developed by Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, led by Neil Ferguson. The Imperial College study addresses the question: If complete suppression is not feasible, what is the best strategy combining incomplete suppression and control that is feasible and leads to acceptable outcomes?
The MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis is a Medical Research Council funded research centre at Imperial College London and a WHO collaborating centre. It is part of the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at School of Public Health within the Imperial College Faculty of Medicine. Neil Ferguson is the director of the centre, along with four associate directors: Christl Donnelly, Azra Ghani, Nicholas Grassly, and Timothy Hallett. The centre also collaborates UK Health Protection Agency, and the US Centre for Disease Control. The centre's main research areas are disease outbreak analysis and modelling, vaccines, global health analytics, antimicrobial resistance, and developing methods and tools for studying these areas. The centre was previously called the MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling.
Speed and scale are key to mitigation of COVID-19, due to the fat-tailed nature of pandemic risk and the exponential growth of COVID-19 infections. For mitigation to be effective, (a) chains of transmission must be broken as quickly as possible through screening and containment, (b) health care must be available to provide for the needs of those infected, and (c) contingencies must be in place to allow for effective rollout of (a) and (b).
The Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics is a research institute at Imperial College London in the fields of epidemiology, mathematical modelling of infectious diseases and emergencies, environmental health, and health economics. Co-founded in 2019 by Imperial College London and Community Jameel, the Jameel Institute is housed in the School of Public Health, within the college's Faculty of Medicine. The mission of the Jameel Institute is "to combat threats from disease worldwide".