2020 California's 25th congressional district special election

Last updated

2020 California's 25th congressional district special election
Flag of California.svg
  2018 March 3, 2020 (first round)
May 12, 2020 (runoff)
2020  

California's 25th congressional district
  Mike Garcia, official portrait, 116th Congress (cropped1) (cropped).jpg Christy Smith CA Assembly official photo (cropped).jpg
Candidate Mike Garcia Christy Smith
Party Republican Democratic
First
round
41,365
25.4%
58,920
36.2%
Runoff 95,667
54.9%
78,721
45.1%

  Steve Knight official congressional photo (cropped 2).jpeg Cenk Uygur by Gage Skidmore.jpg
Candidate Steve Knight Cenk Uygur
Party Republican Democratic
First
round
27,911
17.1%
10,699
6.6%
Runoff EliminatedEliminated

2020CA25special.svg
2020CA25specialrunoff.svg
Garcia:     50–60%
Smith:     30–40%

U.S. Representative before election

Katie Hill
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Mike Garcia
Republican

A special election to the United States House of Representatives for California's 25th congressional district was held March 3, 2020, the same day as the California presidential primaries. As no candidate received a majority, a runoff took place on May 12, 2020, between the top two finishers Christy Smith and Mike Garcia. [1] Garcia's win was the first time Republicans flipped a Democratic-held House seat in California since 1998. [2] [3]

Contents

Katie Hill, who had been elected in 2018, had resigned on November 3, 2019 [4] after reports of an inappropriate relationship with a campaign staffer and allegations of sexual relations with her congressional staff, as well as nude photos of her which were published without her consent. [5] [6] [7] Steve Knight, who had represented the district until 2019, ran in the primary but did not advance to the runoff.

By winning the special election, Garcia finished the remaining balance of Hill's term in the 116th Congress. A separate primary and general election on March 3, 2020, and on November 3, 2020, respectively, was held to determine the representative for the 117th Congress; Garcia narrowly defeated Smith in a rematch and again for a second full term in 2022. [8]

Background

Buck McKeon (R) represented the district from 1993 until he retired in 2014. Steve Knight (R) then won over Tony Strickland (R) in the 2014 election and served until he was defeated by Katie Hill (D) in 2018 by 8.8 percentage points.

Hill resigned in October 2019 following a scandal in which she admitted to an "inappropriate relationship" with a campaign staffer and nude photos of her were published without her consent. [5]

On November 15, 2019, the Governor of California, Gavin Newsom, issued a proclamation declaring a special election for the 25th Congressional District on May 12, 2020, with a primary on March 3, 2020. [9]

In recent presidential elections the district narrowly voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and Mitt Romney (R) in 2012, while Hillary Clinton (D) won the district by 7 percentage points in 2016. [10]

Candidates

California uses a primary system in which all candidates run in a single primary regardless of political party. [11] In regular congressional elections, the top two vote getters in the primary advance to a runoff election regardless of party affiliation or vote tally. However, in the special election for the balance of Hill's term, had a candidate received more than 50% of the primary vote, they would have been automatically elected and the runoff election cancelled. [12]

On October 31, 2019, at least a dozen people had filed paperwork with the FEC to run for the seat. [4] According to the certified list of candidates signed by the Secretary of State of California on January 15, 2020, six Democrats and six Republicans had filed for the special election and would appear on the ballot. [13]

Democratic candidate Christopher Smith ended his campaign shortly after participating in the January 9 debate. While stopping short of a full endorsement, he stated, "among the remaining field, the progressive candidate with the best chance of winning is Cenk Uygur." [14]

Democratic Party

Declared

Declined

Withdrawn

  • Christopher C. Smith, documentary filmmaker [14]

Republican Party

Declared

  • Mike Garcia, U.S. Navy veteran and businessman [13] [18] [10]
  • Kenneth Jenks, U.S. Marine Corps veteran and telecommunications executive [13]
  • Steve Knight, former U.S. representative [13] [19]
  • Courtney Lackey, businesswoman [13]
  • David Lozano, attorney and business owner [13]
  • Daniel R. Mercuri, business owner [13]

Declined

Withdrawn

Special election

The special election and the primary election for the regular general election for California's 25th congressional district was held on March 3, 2020. The normal primary election determined which two candidates would advance to the 2020 general election, while the special election was to determine who will finish the remainder of Hill's term. No candidate in the special election received more than 50% of the vote so the top two candidates advanced to a runoff to be held on May 12, 2020.

Several candidates were on the ballot in both elections on March 3, as these elections concern two different Congresses. [24]

Debates

On December 22, 2019, Democratic candidates Christopher Smith, Aníbal Valdéz-Ortega and Cenk Uygur called on Christy Smith, Robert Cooper III and Getro Elize to attend a primary debate "to be held tentatively at College of the Canyons on Thursday, January 9, 2020". [25] [26] [27] The Talk of Santa Clarita, an interview podcast within the district that hosted a Democratic debate during the 2018 election and has interviewed both Christy Smith and Cenk Uygur, [28] also volunteered to host a primary debate for the Democratic candidates on January 25, 2020. [29]

Uygur stated on January 4 that all of the Democratic candidates, with the notable exception of Christy Smith, will attend a debate in Palmdale (at Transplants Brewing Company) on January 9, 2020. [30] [36] Despite receiving an offer by the other candidates to change the date of the debate to better accommodate her, Christy Smith's campaign has stated that her work in the State Assembly prevents her from attending the debate, which was set to be moderated by The Talk of Santa Clarita. [37] Christy Smith's campaign was given several opportunities to debate on different dates at different venues, including future debates unrelated to the Brewing Company debate, but her campaign also declined, with no reasons given. [38]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [39] Likely DJanuary 24, 2020

Endorsements

Mike Garcia (R)

Federal politicians

State politicians

State legislators

Local politicians

  • Mel Alfarero, founder and National Chairman of Filipino American Republicans [22]
  • B.J. Atkins, director of Santa Clarita Valley Water Board [22]
  • Bill Ayub, Ventura County Sheriff [22]
  • Glen Becerra, former Simi Valley councilman [22]
  • Michael Bradbury, former Ventura County district attorney [22]
  • Bob Brooks, former Ventura County Sheriff [22]
  • Dr. Roy Burns, former President of Association of Los Angeles Deputy Sheriffs [22]
  • Dee Dee Cavanaugh, former Simi Valley councilwoman [41]
  • Steve Cooley, former Los Angeles district attorney and GOP nominee for Attorney General [22]
  • Bill Cooper, President of Santa Clarita Valley Water Board [22]
  • Stephanie English, Los Angeles County Justice Deputy - Public Safety Legislative and Policy Advisor [22]
  • Yvonne Farris, former President of the Board of Education of Ventura County [22]
  • Don Henry, President of Agua Dulce Town Council [22]
  • Mike Judge, Simi Valley councilman [22]
  • Bob Kellar, Santa Clarita councilman [22]
  • R.J. Kelly, Director of Santa Clarita Valley Water Board [22]
  • Dennis Koontz, former Santa Clarita councilman [22]
  • Dean Kunicki, former member of the Board of Education of Ventura County [22]
  • Elaine Litster, Simi Valley councilwoman [22]
  • Keith Mashburn, Mayor of Simi Valley [22]
  • Gary Martin, Vice President of Santa Clarita Valley Water Board [22]
  • Joe Messina, Trustee of the Williams S. Hart School Board [22]
  • Bill Miranda, Santa Clarita councilman [22]
  • R. Rex Parris, Mayor of Lancaster [22]
  • Nancy Smith, Trustee and Retired Superintendent of Palmdale School District [22]
  • Linda Storli, Trustee of the Williams S. Hart School Board [22]
  • Steve Sturgeon, President of the Williams S. Hart School Board [22]
  • Greg Totten, Ventura County district attorney [22]
  • Barbra Williamson, former Simi Valley councilwoman [41]

Individuals

Organizations

Kenneth Jenks (R)

State politicians

  • Johnnie Morgan, President, CA State Republican Assembly [45]

Local politicians

  • Phil Monroe, Captain USN (Ret.) and former Coronado City Councilman [45]

Individuals

  • A. Arvatin, WWII Col. United States Marine Corps (Ret) [45]
  • Jeffrey Smith, Master Sgt USAF (Ret) Iraqi Freedom Warrior of the Month, Enduring Freedom [45]
Christy Smith (D)

Federal politicians

State politicians

State legislators

Local politicians

Labor unions

Organizations

Individuals

Newspapers

Cenk Uygur (D)

In December 2019, Uygur stated that his campaign did not accept endorsements from outside the 25th district [72] and requested that Bernie Sanders's [73] and Ro Khanna's endorsements be retracted. However, his campaign received verbal support from the following notable individuals:

Individuals

Withdrawn endorsements

  • Ro Khanna, U.S. representative (CA-17) (retracted at Uygur's request)' [10]
  • Bernie Sanders, US Senator from Vermont and 2020 Democratic presidential candidate [75] (retracted at Uygur's request) [73]

Results

2020 California's 25th congressional district special election, March 3 [76]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Christy Smith 58,920 36.2%
Republican Mike Garcia 41,365 25.4%
Republican Steve Knight 27,91117.1%
Democratic Cenk Uygur 10,6996.6%
Democratic Aníbal Valdez-Ortega7,4734.6%
Republican Courtney Lackey3,1001.9%
Democratic Robert Cooper III2,9861.8%
Republican David Lozano2,7751.7%
Republican Daniel Mercuri2,5671.6%
Republican Kenneth Jenks2,5491.6%
Democratic Getro F. Elize1,4340.9%
Democratic F. David Rudnick1,1000.7%
Total votes162,879 100%

Runoff

Since no candidate in the March 3, 2020, special election received more than 50.0% of the vote, a runoff election between the top two finishers was held on May 12, 2020. [9]

Endorsements

Mike Garcia (R)

Federal politicians

State politicians

State legislators

Local politicians

  • Mel Alfarero, founder and National Chairman of Filipino American Republicans [22]
  • B.J. Atkins, director of Santa Clarita Valley Water Board [22]
  • Bill Ayub, Ventura County Sheriff [22]
  • Glen Becerra, former Simi Valley councilman [22]
  • Michael Bradbury, former Ventura County district attorney [22]
  • Bob Brooks, former Ventura County Sheriff [22]
  • Dr. Roy Burns, former President of Association of Los Angeles Deputy Sheriffs [22]
  • Dee Dee Cavanaugh, former Simi Valley councilwoman [41]
  • Steve Cooley, former Los Angeles district attorney and GOP nominee for Attorney General [22]
  • Bill Cooper, President of Santa Clarita Valley Water Board [22]
  • Stephanie English, Los Angeles County Justice Deputy - Public Safety Legislative and Policy Advisor [22]
  • Yvonne Farris, former President of the Board of Education of Ventura County [22]
  • Don Henry, President of Agua Dulce Town Council [22]
  • Mike Judge, Simi Valley councilman [22]
  • Bob Kellar, Santa Clarita councilman [22]
  • R.J. Kelly, Director of Santa Clarita Valley Water Board [22]
  • Dennis Koontz, former Santa Clarita councilman [22]
  • Dean Kunicki, former member of the Board of Education of Ventura County [22]
  • Elaine Litster, Simi Valley councilwoman [22]
  • Keith Mashburn, Mayor of Simi Valley [22]
  • Gary Martin, Vice President of Santa Clarita Valley Water Board [22]
  • Joe Messina, trustee of the Williams S. Hart School Board [22]
  • Bill Miranda, Santa Clarita councilman [22]
  • R. Rex Parris, Mayor of Lancaster [22]
  • Nancy Smith, trustee and retired Superintendent of Palmdale School District [22]
  • Linda Storli, trustee of the Williams S. Hart School Board [22]
  • Steve Sturgeon, President of the Williams S. Hart School Board [22]
  • Greg Totten, Ventura County district attorney [22]
  • Barbra Williamson, former Simi Valley councilwoman [41]

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Christy Smith (D)

2020 presidential candidates

  • Kamala Harris, U.S. senator (CA) and former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate [46]

Federal politicians

State politicians

State legislators

Local politicians

Party officials

Labor unions

Organizations

Individuals

Newspapers

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [88] TossupApril 10, 2020
Inside Elections [89] Likely DApril 23, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [90] TossupApril 23, 2020
Politico [91] TossupApril 19, 2020

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Mike
Garcia (R)
Christy
Smith (D)
Undecided
1892 Polling (R) [92] Mar 8–11, 2020500 (LV)± 4.38%43%39%10%

Results

2020 California's 25th congressional district special election runoff, May 12 [93]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Mike Garcia 95,667 54.9% +9.3%
Democratic Christy Smith 78,72145.1%−9.3%
Total votes174,388 100.0% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic
By county
County Mike Garcia
Republican
Christy Smith
Democratic
MarginTotal votes
#%#%#%
Los Angeles (part)72,81554.1561,65945.8511,1568.30134,474
Ventura (part)22,85257.2517,06242.755,79014.5139,914
Totals95,66754.8678,72145.1416,9469.72174,388

See also

Notes

  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

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    References

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    27. Valdez-Ortega, Aníbal [@AVOrtega3] (December 23, 2019). "The people deserve to have their concerns addressed in a public forum, and the Democratic candidates for CA-25 owe it to them to express their policy and their plan to represent the district. This is an open call for a public debate" (Tweet). Retrieved December 27, 2019 via Twitter.
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    29. Talk of Santa Clarita [@thetalkofsc] (December 23, 2019). "TalkofSantaClarita on Twitter: '@cenkuygur I am willing to host a debate for the dem candidates on the 25th of January in front of a live audience if all four candidates will commit. Are you in?'" (Tweet). Retrieved December 24, 2019 via Twitter.
    30. Uygur, Cenk (January 4, 2020). Why Do I Sometimes Oppose Pelosi? Cenk2020.com (Videotape). Castaic, California: Cenk for Congress. Retrieved January 4, 2020. We're doing a debate on January 9, [...] We're gonna do it in Palmdale in the Antelope Valley. And every democrat is coming, uh, oh sorry, except [Christy Smith].
    31. Smith, Christy [@ChristyforCA25] (December 28, 2019). "Hey Fellas- Got your letter. 1. It's Assemblywoman Smith 2. Thanks for the firefighter stamp- proud to have their endorsement 3. Return address not in #CA25?? Supporters- first fundraising deadline 12/31: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/christysmithforcongress-sm" (Tweet). Retrieved January 4, 2020 via Twitter.
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    33. Smith, Christopher [@Christopher_C_S] (December 30, 2019). "Why won't @ChristyForCA25 debate? Every other Dem candidate in the #CA25 race will be there, why won't she? Perhaps she's afraid to reveal how little she knows about federal issues or maybe she'll wither under actual scrutiny. Endorsements can't help her #debates! #progressnow" (Tweet). Archived from the original on January 11, 2020. Retrieved January 4, 2020 via Twitter.
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