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![]() County results Tran: 50-60% Steel: 50-60% | ||||||||||||||||
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Elections in California |
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The 2024 California's 45th congressional district election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the United States representative for California's 45th congressional district, concurrently with elections for the other U.S. House districts in California and the rest of the country, as well as the 2024 U.S. Senate race in California, other elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary election was held on March 5, 2024, concurrently with the Super Tuesday presidential primaries. The election was won by Democratic challenger Derek Tran who narrowly unseated Republican incumbent Michelle Steel by just 0.2%, and the race was one of the closest of the election cycle. [1] Major news outlets only called the race 22 days after Election Night.
Based in Orange County and Los Angeles County, the 45th district contains all of Fountain Valley, Westminster, Garden Grove, Cypress, Buena Park, Cerritos, Artesia, La Palma, Placentia, Hawaiian Gardens, Los Alamitos, and Rossmoor, as well as portions of Brea, Lakewood, Fullerton, and Yorba Linda. [2] One-third of all registered voters in the district are Asian American, with Vietnamese Americans alone comprising 16% of the district's voters. [3]
The incumbent was Republican Michelle Steel, who was re-elected with 52.4% of the vote in 2022. Steel, who is Korean American, was first elected in 2020, unseating incumbent Democrat Harley Rouda. She previously served as a member of the Orange County Board of Supervisors and the California State Board of Equalization.
The race was expected to be highly competitive as it is a purple suburban district. Both House Democrats and House Republicans listed California's 45th district among their highest-priority districts in the 2024 election. [4] [5] Joe Biden carried this district by a 6% margin in the 2020 presidential election. [6] Steel was one of 17 House Republicans representing a Biden-won district. [7] At the local level, however, the 45th district has trended Republican, voting for Republicans in every state race in 2022. [8]
At the end of 2023, Tran announced that he would enter the primary in a bid to become the party's nominee for the U.S. Representative seat in California's 45th congressional district. [9] In March, Tran secured his position as the Democratic nominee, beating another candidate, Kim Nguyen-Penaloza, by 366 votes to face incumbent Republican Steel. [10]
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Campaign finance reports as of October 30, 2024 | |||
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Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Michelle Steel (R) | $8,971,455 [a] | $5,675,115 | $3,752,876 |
Cheyenne Hunt (D) | $389,534 [b] | $254,544 | $134,990 |
Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (D) | $359,909 | $357,405 | $2,503 |
Aditya Pai (D) | $304,926 [c] | $276,752 | $10,396 |
Derek Tran (D) | $4,380,401 | $3,423,836 | $956,564 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [69] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [d] | Margin of error | Cheyenne Hunt (D) | Kim Nguyen- Penaloza (D) | Aditya Pai (D) | Michelle Steel (R) | Derek Tran (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RMG Research [70] [A] | November 14–19, 2023 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 4% | 10% | 1% | 28% | – | 9% [e] | 47% |
Tulchin Research [71] [B] | November 13–19, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 6% | 10% | 2% | 39% | 11% | – | 32% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Michelle Steel (incumbent) | 78,020 | 54.9 | |
Democratic | Derek Tran | 22,544 | 15.9 | |
Democratic | Kim Nguyen-Penaloza | 22,178 | 15.6 | |
Democratic | Cheyenne Hunt | 11,971 | 8.4 | |
Democratic | Aditya Pai | 7,398 | 5.2 | |
Total votes | 142,111 | 100.0 |
After the March primary, Democrat Tran would face incumbent Michelle Steel, a Republican running for a third term. [73] The district is considered a "battleground district" insofar as it was won by Joe Biden in 2020 but has its seat occupied by a member of the Republican Party. [74] Tran's campaign has emphasized the centrality of his Vietnamese American identity to his bid, as the district encompasses parts of Los Angeles County and Orange County and is considered a majority-minority district, including cities Westminster and Garden Grove, which have predominantly Vietnamese American communities, as well as Artesia and Cerritos where Asian Americans are the largest demographic by race. [75] [76] ABC 7 reported that the district was 39% Asian. [77]
Both Steel and Tran vied for support from the district's Vietnamese community, with Steel claiming she understood and worked with the Vietnamese community in the district much better than Tran provoking Tran to respond that the claim was "insulting and disgraceful." [77] The Asian American Action Fund subsequently condemned Steel's comments. [74] In August 2024, the New York Post called out Tran for bringing a translator with him to interviews and events, questioning whether he was actually fluent in Vietnamese. [78] Steel's campaign additionally used Tran's false claims of proficiency as a point of criticism. [79] At the end of August, Tran admitted to the Los Angeles Times that he had lost his childhood fluency and has since spoken "broken Vietnamese." [80] However, Tran's campaign additionally provided a series of video clips in which Tran spoke Vietnamese on television. [81]
The candidates exchanged accusations of communist sympathies. Tran accused Steel's husband, Shawn, of accepting bribes from the Chinese Communist Party in exchange for information, stating that Steel thus could not be trusted with political office in the United States. [82] [83] He also drew distinctions between his own family background to that of Steel's, stating that Steel immigrated to the United States for "economic gain" while his family were refugees fleeing communism. [84] Several Asian American leaders and organizations subsequently condemned the comment. [85] Later, on October 22, 2024, the Los Angeles Times reported that Steel's campaign was sending out campaign mailers associating Tran with Mao Zedong and accusing him of supporting socialism. Following Tran's disclosure in August that he held cryptocurrencies, Steel also claimed that his cryptocurrency assets were bound up in China. [82] Steel defended her accusation asserting it was provoked by Tran's earlier messaging. [86] The mutual accusations caused several Asian American nonprofits to pen a letter to both parties stating that such rhetoric should not be used in the race. [77]
In October, Hakeem Jeffries stumped for Tran at a party event in Anaheim, stating that the race would be close. [87] Bill Clinton also appeared in Orange County to stump for Tran as well as Dave Min, a state senator in a similarly tight race. [88]
Tran went on to win the general election in one of the tightest battles in the 2024 cycle.
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Cook Political Report [89] | Tossup | September 6, 2024 |
Inside Elections [90] | Tossup | October 18, 2024 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [91] | Lean R | November 4, 2024 |
Elections Daily [92] | Lean R | November 4, 2024 |
CNalysis [93] | Tilt D (flip) | November 4, 2024 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [d] | Margin of error | Michelle Steel (R) | Derek Tran (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Normington Petts (D) [94] [C] | October 13–15, 2024 | 400 (V) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
American Viewpoint (R) [95] [D] [ better source needed ] | October 8–10, 2024 | 400 (V) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
USC/CSU [96] | September 14–21, 2024 | 498 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 48% | 5% |
Tulchin Research (D) [97] [B] | September 14–19, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
Normington Petts (D) [98] [C] | July 29–31, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
Tulchin Research [99] [B] | May 23 – June 2, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
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Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Derek Tran | 158,264 | 50.10% | +2.51 | |
Republican | Michelle Steel (incumbent) | 157,611 | 49.90% | −2.51 | |
Total votes | 315,875 | 100.0% | |||
Democratic gain from Republican |
County | Derek Tran Democratic | Michelle Steel Republican | Margin | Total votes | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
# | % | # | % | # | % | ||
Los Angeles (part) | 19,066 | 56.23 | 14,840 | 43.77 | 4,226 | 12.46 | 33,906 |
Orange (part) | 139,198 | 49.37 | 142,771 | 50.63 | -3,573 | -1.27 | 281,969 |
Total | 158,264 | 50.10 | 157,611 | 49.90 | 653 | 0.41 | 157,611 |
Partisan clients
Lance Trover, Steel's campaign manager, said, 'Southern California voters know her record of fighting for lower taxes, standing up to the Chinese Communist Party and ensuring everyone has a shot at the American dream,' maintaining she will be reelected in 2024.
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