![]() | ||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||
![]() County results Tran: 50-60% Steel: 50-60% | ||||||||||||||||
|
Elections in California |
---|
![]() |
The 2024 California's 45th congressional district election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the United States representative for California's 45th congressional district, concurrently with elections for the other U.S. House districts in California and the rest of the country, as well as the 2024 U.S. Senate race in California, other elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary election was held on March 5, 2024, concurrently with the Super Tuesday presidential primaries. The election was won by Democratic challenger Derek Tran who narrowly unseated Republican incumbent Michelle Steel by just 0.2%, and the race was one of the closest of the election cycle. [1] Major news outlets only called the race 22 days after Election Night.
Based in Orange County and Los Angeles County, the 45th district contains all of Fountain Valley, Westminster, Garden Grove, Cypress, Buena Park, Cerritos, Artesia, La Palma, Placentia, Hawaiian Gardens, Los Alamitos, and Rossmoor, as well as portions of Brea, Lakewood, Fullerton, and Yorba Linda. [2] One-third of all registered voters in the district are Asian American, with Vietnamese Americans alone comprising 16% of the district's voters. [3]
The incumbent was Republican Michelle Steel, who was re-elected with 52.4% of the vote in 2022. Steel, who is Korean American, was first elected in 2020, unseating incumbent Democrat Harley Rouda. She previously served as a member of the Orange County Board of Supervisors and the California State Board of Equalization.
The race was expected to be highly competitive as it is a purple suburban district. Both House Democrats and House Republicans listed California's 45th district among their highest-priority districts in the 2024 election. [4] [5] Joe Biden carried this district by a 6% margin in the 2020 presidential election. [6] Steel was one of 17 House Republicans representing a Biden-won district. [7] At the local level, however, the 45th district has trended Republican, voting for Republicans in every state race in 2022. [8]
At the end of 2023, Tran announced that he would enter the primary in a bid to become the party's nominee for the U.S. Representative seat in California's 45th congressional district. [9] In March, Tran secured his position as the Democratic nominee, beating another candidate, Kim Nguyen-Penaloza, by 366 votes to face incumbent Republican Steel. [10]
Individuals
Organizations
U.S. representatives
State senators
State assemblymembers
Municipal officials
Local officials
Individuals
Party chapters
Labor unions
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
U.S. representatives
Municipal officials
Local officials
Organizations
Party chapters
U.S. representatives
Municipal officials
Organizations
Campaign finance reports as of October 30, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Michelle Steel (R) | $8,971,455 [a] | $5,675,115 | $3,752,876 |
Cheyenne Hunt (D) | $389,534 [b] | $254,544 | $134,990 |
Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (D) | $359,909 | $357,405 | $2,503 |
Aditya Pai (D) | $304,926 [c] | $276,752 | $10,396 |
Derek Tran (D) | $4,380,401 | $3,423,836 | $956,564 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [69] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [d] | Margin of error | Cheyenne Hunt (D) | Kim Nguyen- Penaloza (D) | Aditya Pai (D) | Michelle Steel (R) | Derek Tran (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RMG Research [70] [A] | November 14–19, 2023 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 4% | 10% | 1% | 28% | – | 9% [e] | 47% |
Tulchin Research [71] [B] | November 13–19, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 6% | 10% | 2% | 39% | 11% | – | 32% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Michelle Steel (incumbent) | 78,020 | 54.9 | |
Democratic | Derek Tran | 22,544 | 15.9 | |
Democratic | Kim Nguyen-Penaloza | 22,178 | 15.6 | |
Democratic | Cheyenne Hunt | 11,971 | 8.4 | |
Democratic | Aditya Pai | 7,398 | 5.2 | |
Total votes | 142,111 | 100.0 |
After the March primary, Democrat Tran would face incumbent Michelle Steel, a Republican running for a third term. [73] The district is considered a "battleground district" insofar as it was won by Joe Biden in 2020 but has its seat occupied by a member of the Republican Party. [74] Tran's campaign has emphasized the centrality of his Vietnamese American identity to his bid, as the district encompasses parts of Los Angeles County and Orange County and is considered a majority-minority district, including cities Westminster and Garden Grove, which have predominantly Vietnamese American communities, as well as Artesia and Cerritos where Asian Americans are the largest demographic by race. [75] [76] ABC 7 reported that the district was 39% Asian. [77]
Both Steel and Tran vied for support from the district's Vietnamese community, with Steel claiming she understood and worked with the Vietnamese community in the district much better than Tran provoking Tran to respond that the claim was "insulting and disgraceful." [77] The Asian American Action Fund subsequently condemned Steel's comments. [74] In August 2024, the New York Post called out Tran for bringing a translator with him to interviews and events, questioning whether he was actually fluent in Vietnamese. [78] Steel's campaign additionally used Tran's false claims of proficiency as a point of criticism. [79] At the end of August, Tran admitted to the Los Angeles Times that he had lost his childhood fluency and has since spoken "broken Vietnamese." [80] However, Tran's campaign additionally provided a series of video clips in which Tran spoke Vietnamese on television. [81]
The candidates exchanged accusations of communist sympathies. Tran accused Steel's husband, Shawn, of accepting bribes from the Chinese Communist Party in exchange for information, stating that Steel thus could not be trusted with political office in the United States. [82] [83] He also drew distinctions between his own family background to that of Steel's, stating that Steel immigrated to the United States for "economic gain" while his family were refugees fleeing communism. [84] Several Asian American leaders and organizations subsequently condemned the comment. [85] Later, on October 22, 2024, the Los Angeles Times reported that Steel's campaign was sending out campaign mailers associating Tran with Mao Zedong and accusing him of supporting socialism. Following Tran's disclosure in August that he held cryptocurrencies, Steel also claimed that his cryptocurrency assets were bound up in China. [82] Steel defended her accusation asserting it was provoked by Tran's earlier messaging. [86] The mutual accusations caused several Asian American nonprofits to pen a letter to both parties stating that such rhetoric should not be used in the race. [77]
In October, Hakeem Jeffries stumped for Tran at a party event in Anaheim, stating that the race would be close. [87] In November, Bill Clinton appeared in Orange County to stump for Tran as well as Dave Min, a state senator in a similarly tight race. [88]
Tran went on to win the general election in one of the tightest battles in the 2024 cycle.
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Cook Political Report [89] | Tossup | September 6, 2024 |
Inside Elections [90] | Tossup | October 18, 2024 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [91] | Lean R | November 4, 2024 |
Elections Daily [92] | Lean R | November 4, 2024 |
CNalysis [93] | Tilt D (flip) | November 4, 2024 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [d] | Margin of error | Michelle Steel (R) | Derek Tran (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Normington Petts (D) [94] [C] | October 13–15, 2024 | 400 (V) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
American Viewpoint (R) [95] [D] [ better source needed ] | October 8–10, 2024 | 400 (V) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
USC/CSU [96] | September 14–21, 2024 | 498 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 48% | 5% |
Tulchin Research (D) [97] [B] | September 14–19, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
Normington Petts (D) [98] [C] | July 29–31, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
Tulchin Research [99] [B] | May 23 – June 2, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
Executive Branch Officials
U.S. representatives
Newspapers
Organizations
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Derek Tran | 158,264 | 50.10% | +2.51 | |
Republican | Michelle Steel (incumbent) | 157,611 | 49.90% | −2.51 | |
Total votes | 315,875 | 100.0% | |||
Democratic gain from Republican |
County | Derek Tran Democratic | Michelle Steel Republican | Margin | Total votes | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
# | % | # | % | # | % | ||
Los Angeles (part) | 19,066 | 56.23 | 14,840 | 43.77 | 4,226 | 12.46 | 33,906 |
Orange (part) | 139,198 | 49.37 | 142,771 | 50.63 | -3,573 | -1.27 | 281,969 |
Total | 158,264 | 50.10 | 157,611 | 49.90 | 653 | 0.41 | 157,611 |
Partisan clients
Scott Randall Baugh is an American attorney and politician. He is a member of the Republican Party. He served in the California State Assembly and served as the chair of the Republican Party in Orange County, California, from the early 2000s to 2015.
Michelle Eunjoo Steel is an American politician who served as the U.S. representative for California's 45th congressional district from 2023 to 2025, previously representing the 48th congressional district from 2021 to 2023. A member of the Republican Party, she concurrently served as a member of House Minority Whip Steve Scalise's Whip Team for the 117th Congress. Steel ran for re-election to a third term in 2024, but she was defeated in the general election by Democratic challenger Derek Tran.
Young Oak Kim is a South Korean-born American politician and businesswoman serving as the U.S. representative for California's 40th congressional district, previously representing the 39th congressional district from 2021 to 2023. Her district includes northern parts of Orange County. In the 2020 United States House of Representatives elections, Kim, Michelle Park Steel, and Marilyn Strickland became the first three Korean-American women elected to the United States Congress. Kim and Steel are also the first Korean-Americans elected to Congress from California since Jay Kim.
The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in California were held on November 6, 2018, with the primary elections being held on June 5, 2018. Voters elected the 53 U.S. representatives from the state of California, one from each of the state's 53 congressional districts. The elections coincided with the elections of other offices, including a gubernatorial election, other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.
David Kunnghee Min is an American lawyer and politician who has served as the U.S. representative from California's 47th congressional district since 2025. A member of the Democratic Party, he represented the 37th district in the California State Senate from 2020 to 2024, which includes portions of Orange County. He was an assistant law professor at the University of California, Irvine prior to being elected to office.
Gilbert Ray Cisneros Jr. is an American government official, philanthropist, and politician who is a member of the United States House of Representatives, representing California's 31st congressional district since 2025. Cisneros, a Democrat, previously served as Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness in the Biden administration and the U.S. representative for California's 39th congressional district from 2019 to 2021.
Harley Edwin Rouda Jr. is an American attorney, businessman and politician who served as the U.S. representative for California's 48th congressional district from 2019 to 2021. He was the first Democrat to represent the district, which encompasses southwestern coastal portions of Orange County including the cities of Huntington Beach, Costa Mesa and Newport Beach.
The 2018 California's 39th congressional district election was held on Tuesday, November 6, 2018, with a primary election being held on June 5, 2018. Incumbent Republican Representative Ed Royce, retired instead of running for a 14th term.
Two 2024 United States Senate elections in California were held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of California. There were two ballot items for the same Class 1 seat: a special election to fill the seat for the final month of the 118th United States Congress, and a regular general election for a full term that starts on January 3, 2025, starting in the 119th United States Congress. This was the second time in a row that both a regular and special election for the U.S. Senate occurred simultaneously in California, following the 2022 elections.
The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in California were held on November 3, 2020, to elect the 53 U.S. representatives from the state of California, one from each of the state's 53 congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.
The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in California were held on November 8, 2022, to elect representatives for the 52 seats in California. This marked the first time in the state's history where it lost a seat.
The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Washington were held on November 8, 2022, to elect the 10 U.S. representatives from the state of Washington, one from each of the state's 10 congressional districts. The elections coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. Going into this election, the Democratic Party represented seven seats, while the Republican Party represented three seats.
Mayoral elections in Irvine, California, are held every two years.
The 2022 California Attorney General election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the Attorney General of California. Incumbent Democratic Attorney General Rob Bonta was appointed to the office on April 23, 2021, following the resignation of Xavier Becerra to become the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services. Bonta won a full term.
The 2022 Orange County Board of Supervisors elections were held on June 7 and November 8, 2022. Three of the five seats of the Orange County, California Board of Supervisors were up for election. This was the first set of elections held after the 2020 redistricting cycle. County elections in California are officially nonpartisan. A two-round system was used for the election, starting with the first round in June. Runoffs were held in all three districts, as no candidate managed to reach the 50% + 1 threshold.
The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in California were held on November 5, 2024, to elect the 52 U.S. representatives from the State of California, one from all 52 of the state's congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. Six incumbent representatives, Barbara Lee of the 12th district, Adam Schiff of the 30th district, Katie Porter of the 47th district, Anna Eshoo of the 16th district, Tony Cárdenas of the 29th district, and Grace Napolitano of the 31st district, announced they would not seek re-election in 2024; Lee, Schiff, and Porter instead ran for U.S. Senate.
The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in New Jersey were held on November 5, 2024, to elect the twelve U.S. representatives from the State of New Jersey, one from all twelve of the state's congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections were held on June 4, 2024.
The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Washington were held on November 5, 2024, to elect the ten U.S. representatives from the State of Washington, one from each of the state's congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections took place on August 6, 2024.
The 2024 California's 47th congressional district election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the United States representative for California's 47th congressional district, concurrently with elections for the other U.S. House districts in California and the rest of the country, as well as the 2024 U.S. Senate race in California, other elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary election was held on March 5, 2024, concurrently with the Super Tuesday presidential primaries. The Southern California-based 47th district is centered in Orange County and includes the cities of Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, Irvine, Newport Beach, and Seal Beach, as well as portions of Laguna Beach, Laguna Hills, and Laguna Woods.
Derek Truyen Tran is an American lawyer and politician who has served as the U.S. representative from California's 45th congressional district since 2025. A member of the Democratic Party, Tran is the third Vietnamese American to be elected to Congress and the first to represent California.
Lance Trover, Steel's campaign manager, said, 'Southern California voters know her record of fighting for lower taxes, standing up to the Chinese Communist Party and ensuring everyone has a shot at the American dream,' maintaining she will be reelected in 2024.
Official campaign websites