2024 California's 45th congressional district election

Last updated

2024 California's 45th congressional district election
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Reporting
99%
as of Dec. 3, 5:00 PM PST
  3x4.svg MichelleSteel (cropped).jpg
Candidate Derek Tran Michelle Steel
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote158,264157,611
Percentage50.1%49.9%
2022 House Elections California 45th.svg
County results
Tran:     50-60%
Steel:     50-60%
U.S. Representative before election

Michelle Steel
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Derek Tran
Democratic

The 2024 California's 45th congressional district election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the United States representative for California's 45th congressional district, concurrently with elections for the other U.S. House districts in California and the rest of the country, as well as the 2024 U.S. Senate race in California, other elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary election was held on March 5, 2024, concurrently with the Super Tuesday presidential primaries.

Contents

Based in Orange County and Los Angeles County, the 45th district contains all of Fountain Valley, Westminster, Garden Grove, Cypress, Buena Park, Cerritos, Artesia, La Palma, Placentia, Hawaiian Gardens, Los Alamitos, and Rossmoor, as well as portions of Brea, Lakewood, Fullerton, and Yorba Linda. [1] One-third of all registered voters in the district are Asian American, with Vietnamese Americans alone comprising 16% of the district's voters. [2]

The incumbent is Republican Michelle Steel, who was re-elected with 52.4% of the vote in 2022. Steel, who is Korean American, was first elected in 2020, unseating incumbent Democrat Harley Rouda. She previously served as a member of the Orange County Board of Supervisors and the California State Board of Equalization.

The race was expected to be highly competitive as it is a purple suburban district. Both House Democrats and House Republicans listed California's 45th district among their highest-priority districts in the 2024 election. [3] [4] Joe Biden carried this district by a 6% margin in the 2020 presidential election. [5] Steel is one of 17 House Republicans representing a Biden-won district. [6] At the local level, however, the 45th district has trended Republican, voting for Republicans in every state race in 2022. [7]

Tran narrowly unseated Steel by just 0.2%, and the race was one of the closest of the election cycle. [8] Major news outlets only called the race 22 days after Election Night.

Primary election

Candidates

Kim Nguyen-Penaloza Kim-nguyen.jpg
Kim Nguyen-Penaloza

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Cheyenne Hunt (D)

Individuals

Organizations

Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (D)

U.S. representatives

State senators

State assemblymembers

Municipal officials

Local officials

Individuals

Party chapters

Labor unions

Newspapers and other media

Organizations

Derek Tran (D)

U.S. representatives

Municipal officials

Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 30, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Michelle Steel (R)$8,971,455 [a] $5,675,115$3,752,876
Cheyenne Hunt (D)$389,534 [b] $254,544$134,990
Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (D)$359,909$357,405$2,503
Aditya Pai (D)$304,926 [c] $276,752$10,396
Derek Tran (D)$4,380,401$3,423,836$956,564
Source: Federal Election Commission [67]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [d] 		Margin
of error		Cheyenne
Hunt (D)		Kim Nguyen-
Penaloza (D)		Aditya
Pai (D)		Michelle
Steel (R)		Derek
Tran (D)		OtherUndecided
RMG Research [68] [A] November 14–19, 2023300 (LV)± 5.7%4%10%1%28%–9% [e] 47%
Tulchin Research [69] [B] November 13–19, 2023500 (LV)± 4.9%6%10%2%39%11%–32%

Results

Results by county and municipality .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Steel 40-50% 50-60% No votes / no data 2024CA45primary.svg
Results by county and municipality
  Steel
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  No votes / no data
2024 California's 45th congressional district primary [70]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Michelle Steel (incumbent) 78,020 54.9
Democratic Derek Tran 22,544 15.9
Democratic Kim Nguyen-Penaloza22,17815.6
Democratic Cheyenne Hunt11,9718.4
Democratic Aditya Pai7,3985.2
Total votes142,111 100.0

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [71] TossupSeptember 6, 2024
Inside Elections [72] TossupOctober 18, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [73] Lean RNovember 4, 2024
Elections Daily [74] Lean RNovember 4, 2024
CNalysis [75] Tilt D (flip)November 4, 2024

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [d] 		Margin
of error		Michelle
Steel (R)		Derek
Tran (D)		Undecided
Normington Petts (D) [76] [C] October 13–15, 2024400 (V)± 4.4%45%48%7%
American Viewpoint (R) [77] [D] [ better source needed ]October 8–10, 2024400 (V)± 4.9%45%41%14%
USC/CSU [78] September 14–21, 2024498 (LV)± 4.4%46%48%5%
Tulchin Research (D) [79] [B] September 14–19, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%45%47%8%
Normington Petts (D) [80] [C] July 29–31, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%47%47%6%
Tulchin Research [81] [B] May 23 – June 2, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%42%41%17%

Post-primary endorsements

Michelle Steel (R)

Newspapers

Organizations

Results

2024 California's 45th congressional district election [95] [96]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Derek Tran 158,264 50.10% +2.51
Republican Michelle Steel (incumbent)157,61149.90%−2.51
Total votes315,875 100.0%
Democratic gain from Republican

By county

County Derek Tran
Democratic 		Michelle Steel
Republican 		MarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%
Los Angeles (part)19,06656.2314,84043.774,22612.4633,906
Orange (part)139,19849.37142,77150.63-3,573-1.27281,969
Total158,26450.10157,61149.906530.41157,611

Notes

  1. ↑ $1,910,000 of this total was self-funded by Steel
  2. ↑ $107,000 of this total was self-funded by Hunt
  3. ↑ $33,833 of this total was self-funded by Pai
  4. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. ↑ "Someone else" with 8%; "Would not vote" with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. ↑ Poll sponsored by U.S. Term Limits
  2. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Tran's campaign
  3. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
  4. ↑ Poll sponsored by Steel's campaign and the NRCC

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References

  1. ↑ "Our District". United States House of Representatives Page of Congresswoman Steel. January 3, 2021. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  2. ↑ Chan, Melissa (November 9, 2022). "Why a Southern California congressional race hinges on Asian American voters". NPR . The Morning Edition. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  3. ↑ Solender, Andrew (November 22, 2022). "House Democrats eye lost ground in 2024". Axios . Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  4. ↑ Steinhauser, Paul (February 3, 2023). "McCarthy launches 'Protect the House 2024' as he aims to expand the GOP majority". Fox News . Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  5. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district, for new and old districts". Daily Kos Elections. September 29, 2021. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  6. ↑ Kondik, Kyle (December 1, 2022). "The New Crossover Members of the House". University of Virginia Center for Politics . Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  7. ↑ "Statement of Vote November 8, 2022 – General Election" (PDF). California Secretary of State. Retrieved January 5, 2024.
  8. ↑ Nelson, Laura J. (November 27, 2024). "Democrat Derek Tran ousts Republican Michelle Steel in competitive Orange County House race". Los Angeles Times.
  9. 1 2 Kang, Hanna (April 4, 2023). "25-year-old OC TikTok influencer could become the next Gen Z member of Congress". The Orange County Register . Lance Trover, Steel's campaign manager, said, 'Southern California voters know her record of fighting for lower taxes, standing up to the Chinese Communist Party and ensuring everyone has a shot at the American dream,' maintaining she will be reelected in 2024.
  10. ↑ Marans, Daniel (October 2, 2023). "Democrat Derek Tran Announces Bid For Key California House Seat". Huffington Post . Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  11. ↑ Singer, Jeff (January 25, 2023). "Orange County Democrat launches bid to beat Rep. Michelle Steel in competitive seat Biden carried". The Daily Kos . Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  12. ↑ Kang, Hanna (April 10, 2023). "Third Democrat jumps into race in attempt to flip Michelle Steel's seat in 2024". The Orange County Register . Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  13. ↑ Chmielewski, Dan (October 13, 2023). "CA-45 CANDIDATE JIMMY PHAM SUSPENDS CAMPAIGN FOR CONGRESS". The Liberal OC. Retrieved October 14, 2023.
  14. 1 2 Kang, Hanna (October 20, 2023). "Jimmy Pham launches Assembly campaign days after dropping out of congressional race". The Orange County Register . Retrieved October 24, 2023.
  15. ↑ Kang, Hanna (May 26, 2023). "The race for Rep. Katie Porter's open congressional seat is growing". The Orange County Register . Retrieved May 28, 2023.
  16. 1 2 Klein, Howie (February 3, 2024). "Endorsement Alert In Orange County: Cheyenne Hunt". Blue America. Retrieved February 5, 2024.
  17. ↑ "Patriotic Millionaires Endorse First Candidates of 2024". Patriotic Millionaires. February 5, 2024. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
  18. 1 2 Chmielewski, Dan (September 6, 2023). "Congressman Lou Correa Endorses Kim Nguyen for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved September 16, 2023.
  19. ↑ Chmielewski, Dan (May 15, 2023). "And Endorsements are Coming In". The Liberal OC. Retrieved May 16, 2023.
  20. 1 2 "ASPIRE PAC Announces Two Congressional Endorsements". ASPIRE PAC . August 21, 2023. Retrieved August 28, 2023.
  21. 1 2 3 Chmielewski, Dan (June 29, 2023). "Kim Nguyen gets endorsed by Rep. Katie Porter". The Liberal OC. Retrieved July 14, 2023.
  22. 1 2 Castaneda, Diana (May 23, 2023). "CHC BOLD PAC Announces New Endorsements for 2024". CHC BOLD PAC . Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  23. 1 2 3 4 Mill, Sean (January 30, 2023). "Assemblywoman Quirk-Silva and CA-45 Leaders endorse Kim Bernice Nguyen for Congress". New Santa Ana. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  24. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 "Los Angeles/Orange County Building and Construction Trades Council endorses Kim Bernice Nguyen for Congress". Orange County Breeze. March 30, 2023. Archived from the original on March 31, 2023. Retrieved March 30, 2023.
  25. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Chmielewski, Dan (October 3, 2023). "National Women's Political Caucus (NWPC) Endorses Kim Nguyen for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved October 4, 2023.
  26. 1 2 3 Chmielewski, Dan (November 30, 2023). "California Teachers and National Education Association Endorse Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved December 1, 2023.
  27. ↑ "Primary Endorsements" (PDF). California Democratic Party. November 19, 2023. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  28. ↑ "Endorsed Candidates | 2024 Presidential Primary Election". Los Angeles County Democratic Party. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
  29. 1 2 3 4 Chmielewski, Dan (February 21, 2024). "UNITE HERE Local 11 Endorses Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved February 22, 2024.
  30. ↑ Chmielewski, Dan (February 20, 2024). "California Federation of Teachers and American Federation of Teachers Endorse Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved February 22, 2024.
  31. ↑ Chmielewski, Dan (December 6, 2023). "2.2 Million Member Strong California Labor Federation Endorses Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved December 6, 2023.
  32. ↑ "OCLF COPE Recommendations". Orange County Labor Federation . Retrieved February 22, 2024.
  33. ↑ Chmielewski, Dan (February 5, 2024). "Communication Workers of America Local 9150 Endorses Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved February 5, 2024.
  34. ↑ "Voting Guide 2024 – IBEW". February 5, 2024. Retrieved February 22, 2024.
  35. ↑ Chmielewski, Dan (November 30, 2023). "Laborers' International Union of North America (LIUNA) Endorses Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved December 1, 2023.
  36. ↑ Chmielewski, Dan (October 6, 2023). "Service Employees International Union (SEIU) California Endorses Kim Nguyen for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved October 7, 2023.
  37. ↑ Chmielewski, Dan (February 14, 2024). "Western States Regional Council of Carpenters Endorses Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
  38. ↑ "Endorsement: Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for the 45th Congressional District". Los Angeles Times . January 29, 2024. Retrieved January 29, 2024.
  39. ↑ Chmielewski, Dan (December 5, 2023). "California Young Democrats (CYD) Endorse Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved December 6, 2023.
  40. ↑ Orange County Young Democrats [@OCYD] (March 30, 2023). "Join us tonight to support former OCYD Executive Board Member @votekimnguyen!" (Tweet). Retrieved March 31, 2023– via Twitter.
  41. ↑ College Democrats of CSUF [@csufdemocrats] (February 13, 2024). "We have an endorsement: Kim Nguyen-Penaloza". Instagram . Retrieved February 22, 2024.
  42. ↑ "Election Center". Equality California. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
  43. ↑ Latino Victory [@latinovictoryus] (February 8, 2024). "We are proud to support Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress. Kim's experience and community leadership are unparalleled" (Tweet). Retrieved February 11, 2024– via Twitter.
  44. ↑ "Candidates: 2024 PODER PAC Endorsements". PODER PAC. Retrieved December 4, 2023.
  45. ↑ "House GOP Conference Chair Refuses to Commit to Certifying the 2024 Election – Will Michelle Steel and Young Kim?". DCCC. January 10, 2024. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
  46. 1 2 Chmielewski, Dan (February 14, 2024). "OC Supervisor Vincente Sarmiento Endorses Derek Tran". The Liberal OC. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
  47. ↑ DeMaio, Carl (August 22, 2023). "Reform California Releases Its First Round of Voter Guide Endorsements for the 2024 Election". Reform California. Archived from the original on August 29, 2023. Retrieved August 29, 2023.
  48. ↑ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
  49. ↑ "CA Statewide Guide". www.cacollegegop.org. Retrieved February 10, 2024.
  50. ↑ "2024 Voter Guides". californiaprolife.org. Retrieved February 20, 2024.
  51. ↑ "CRPA PAC Endorsed Federal Candidates". CRPA. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
  52. ↑ "Endorsements by the HJTA PAC". Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association. Retrieved January 29, 2024.
  53. ↑ "IFA Endorses Congressional Candidates Ahead of Primary Elections | International Franchise Association". www.franchise.org. February 28, 2024. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
  54. ↑ Holt, Matt (June 15, 2023). "The Messenger: A PAC Dedicated to Electing GOP Women Issues First Wave of 2024 Endorsements (Exclusive)". The Messenger via Maggie's List. Retrieved September 6, 2023.
  55. ↑ NRA-PVF. "NRA-PVF | Grades | California". NRA-PVF. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
  56. ↑ "Pro-Israel America Announces Fourteen New Candidate Endorsements". Pro Israel America. February 15, 2024. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
  57. ↑ "RJC Announces 11 House Endorsements". Republican Jewish Coalition. Retrieved December 24, 2023.
  58. ↑ "CAGOP Releases Several Endorsements for 2024 Election". California Republican Party. Retrieved July 23, 2023.
  59. ↑ "Republican Party of Orange County endorses Rep. Michelle Steel for reelection". Orange County Breeze. February 23, 2023. Archived from the original on April 22, 2023. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  60. 1 2 Chmielewski, Dan (November 30, 2023). "Rep. Judy Chu Endorses Derek Tran for CA-45". The Liberal OC. Retrieved December 1, 2023.
  61. ↑ Chmielewski, Dan (November 18, 2023). "Rep. Zoe Lofgren Endorses Derek Tran for CA-45". The Liberal OC. Retrieved November 24, 2023.
  62. 1 2 "ASPIRE PAC Announces Two Additional Endorsements | aspirepac.org". aspirepac.org. Retrieved January 29, 2024.
  63. ↑ "Candidates". Serve America PAC. Retrieved January 2, 2024.
  64. ↑ "Endorsed Candidates" . Retrieved February 20, 2024.
  65. ↑ "NewDem Action Fund Announces Latest Red-to-Blue Candidate Endorsement Slate for 2024". NewDem Action Fund. December 12, 2023. Archived from the original on December 12, 2023. Retrieved December 12, 2023.
  66. ↑ "VoteVets Endorses Derek Tran for CA-45". Derek Tran for Congress. December 1, 2023. Retrieved December 1, 2023.
  67. ↑ "2024 Election United States House - California - District 45 - FEC". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved February 1, 2024.
  68. ↑ RMG Research
  69. ↑ Tulchin Research
  70. ↑ "U.S. House of Representatives District 45 - Districtwide Results". California Secretary of State. March 22, 2024. Retrieved March 24, 2024.
  71. ↑ Covey, Erin (September 5, 2024). "House Ratings Changes: Several Races Move in Democrats' Favor". The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter . Retrieved September 13, 2024.
  72. ↑ Gonzales, Nathan L.; Rubashkin, Jacob (October 18, 2024). "2024 Elections Coming Down to the Wire". Inside Elections . Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  73. ↑ Kondik, Kyle (September 19, 2024). "Five House Rating Changes as Overall Battle for Majority Remains Tight". University of Virginia Center for Politics . Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  74. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 9, 2023. Retrieved August 9, 2023.
  75. ↑ "2024 House Forecast". November 20, 2023. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  76. ↑ Normington Petts (D)
  77. ↑ American Viewpoint (R)
  78. ↑ USC/CSU
  79. ↑ Tulchin Research (D)
  80. ↑ Normington Petts (D)
  81. ↑ Tulchin Research
  82. ↑ "It's a no-brainer. Re-elect Michelle Steel to the House of Representatives. Endorsement: Michelle Steel for the 45th Congressional District". OC Register. Retrieved September 24, 2024.
  83. ↑ "2024 Endorsed Candidates". Log Cabin Republicans. Retrieved April 4, 2024.
  84. ↑ "Bill Clinton stumps for Democrats in Orange County with control of the House on the line". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  85. ↑ "Can Democrats Flip the House?". Robert Reich . Retrieved October 2, 2024.
  86. ↑ Mascaro, Lisa (October 14, 2024). "Democrat Hakeem Jeffries stumps in California in a bid to reclaim House control". Associated Press. Retrieved October 14, 2024.
  87. ↑ "Endorsement: Rep. Michelle Steel needs to go. Derek Tran for the 45th Congressional District". Los Angeles Times . September 9, 2024. Retrieved September 26, 2024.
  88. ↑ "Endorsements". AAAFund. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
  89. ↑ Solander, Andrew (March 28, 2024). "Scoop: House Democrats grow their GOP target list for 2024". Axios . Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  90. ↑ Democratic Majority for Israel [@DemMaj4Israel] (September 9, 2024). "Today, DMFI PAC announced its endorsement of fourteen pro-Israel candidates running for the Democratic nomination in key U.S. House and Senate general election races. These seats are critical to electing a Democratic majority in Congress this November" (Tweet). Retrieved September 9, 2024– via Twitter.
  91. ↑ "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Slate of No Corporate PAC Congressional Candidates". End Citizens United | We the People, Not "We the Wealthy". May 15, 2024. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
  92. ↑ "Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund Announces New Round of Federal Endorsements". Everytown for Gun Safety. September 26, 2024. Retrieved September 27, 2024.
  93. ↑ "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
  94. ↑ "Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Slate of California Champions for Election to U.S. House". Reproductive Freedom for All. April 9, 2024. Retrieved April 11, 2024.
  95. ↑ "California 45th Congressional District Election Results". The New York Times . November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 10, 2024.
  96. ↑ "2024 California Election Results". AP NEWS. Retrieved November 24, 2024.

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