2024 California's 47th congressional district election

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2024 California's 47th congressional district election
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←  2022 November 5, 2024 2026  →
  Dave Min official portrait (cropped).jpg ScottBaugh (cropped).jpg
Candidate Dave Min Scott Baugh
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote181,655171,501
Percentage51.44%48.56%
U.S. Representative before election

Katie Porter
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Dave Min
Democratic

The 2024 California's 47th congressional district election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the United States representative for California's 47th congressional district, concurrently with elections for the other U.S. House districts in California and the rest of the country, as well as the 2024 U.S. Senate race in California, other elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary election was held on March 5, 2024, concurrently with the Super Tuesday presidential primaries. The Southern California-based 47th district is centered in Orange County and includes the cities of Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, Irvine, Newport Beach, and Seal Beach, as well as portions of Laguna Beach, Laguna Hills, and Laguna Woods.

Contents

The incumbent is Democrat Katie Porter, who was re-elected with 51.7% of the vote in 2022. She is not seeking re-election, instead choosing to run for the U.S. Senate. [1] Porter was first elected in 2018, unseating incumbent Republican Mimi Walters. She later gained national fame for her progressive politics and frequently went viral for grilling corporate executives during congressional hearings. [2] During the primary elections, AIPAC spent an unprecedented $4.6 million against Min. [3] [4]

The general election pit former state assemblyman Scott Baugh, a Republican, against state senator Dave Min, a Democrat. Candidates eliminated in the primary election included Democratic attorney Joanna Weiss and Republican businessman Max Ukropina.

The race was expected to be highly competitive as it is a slightly blue suburban district with no incumbent. Both House Democrats and House Republicans listed California's 47th district among their highest-priority districts in the 2024 election. [5] [6] Democrat Joe Biden won the district with 54.5% of the vote in the 2020 presidential election. [7]

On the night of November 12, 2024, after a week of counting and an estimate of 86% of the vote reporting, Baugh conceded the race to Min, who was leading with 50.9% of the vote at the time. [8]

Primary election

Candidates

Advanced to general

  • Scott Baugh (Republican), former minority leader of the California state assembly, former chair of the Orange County Republican Party, and runner-up for this district in 2022 [9]
  • Dave Min (Democratic), state senator and candidate for this district [a] in 2018 [10]

Eliminated in primary

  • Terry Crandall (no party preference), Santa Ana College economics professor [11]
  • Tom McGrath (no party preference), chemical engineer [11]
  • Long Pham (Republican), former member of the Orange County Department of Education Board of Directors and perennial candidate [11]
  • Boyd Roberts (Democratic), realtor and perennial candidate [11]
  • Bill Smith (no party preference), retired attorney [11]
  • Max Ukropina (Republican), businessman and former aide to U.S. Representatives John Campbell and David Valadao [12]
  • Joanna Weiss (Democratic), attorney and law professor [13]
  • Shariq Zaidi (Democratic), security guard [11]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Scott Baugh (R)

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Local officials

Political parties

Organizations

Long Pham (R)

Organizations

Dave Min (D)

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

  • 24 state senators [38]
  • 33 state assemblymembers [38]

Individuals

Newspapers and other media

Political parties

Organizations

Labor unions

Max Ukropina (R)

Political parties

Dom Jones (D) (withdrawn)

Individuals

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Scott
Baugh (R)		Dave
Min (D)		Max
Ukropina (R)		Joanna
Weiss (D)		OtherUndecided
WPA Intelligence (R) [76] [A] February 12–14, 2024366 (LV)± 5.1%27%22%9%16%9%17%
RMG Research [77] [B] November 14–19, 2023300 (LV)± 5.7%17%12%4%7%4% [c] 56%

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of February 14, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Dave Min (D)$1,731,136$1,507,057$224,079
Boyd Roberts (D)$6,762$8,369$0
Joanna Weiss (D)$2,151,268 [d] $1,538,667$612,601
Scott Baugh (R)$2,010,374$313,132$1,707,928
Max Ukropina (R)$595,201$436,787$158,414
Terry Crandall (NPP)$13,985$12,461$1,523
Tom McGrath (NPP)$14,033$8,895$5,138
Bill Smith (NPP)$15,000 [e] $7,770$7,230
Source: Federal Election Commission [78]

Results

2024 California's 47th congressional district primary [79] [80]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Scott Baugh 49,799 32.8
Democratic Dave Min 39,080 25.7
Democratic Joanna Weiss28,94819.0
Republican Max Ukropina22,72915.0
Republican Long Pham4,1952.8
No party preference Terry Crandall2,4001.6
Democratic Boyd Roberts2,0121.3
No party preference Tom McGrath1,3210.9
No party preference Bill Smith9020.6
Democratic Shariq Zaidi6720.4
Total votes152,058 100.0

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [81] Lean DFebruary 2, 2023
Inside Elections [82] TossupMarch 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [83] Lean DSeptember 19, 2024
Elections Daily [84] Lean R (flip)November 4, 2024
CNalysis [85] Lean DNovember 4, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Dave
Min (D)		Scott
Baugh (R)		Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R) [100] [A] October 17–18, 2024401 (LV)± 4.9%40%43%17%
WPA Intelligence (R) [100] [A] September 24–26, 2024––45%42%13%
USC/CSU [101] September 14–21, 2024525 (LV)± 4.3%46%49%5% [f]
Public Policy Polling (D) [102] [C] October 24–30, 2023500 (LV)± 4.4%42%43%15%
Public Policy Polling (D) [103] [D] June 14–15, 2023555 (LV)± 4.2%37%39%24%
Hypothetical polling

Scott Baugh vs. Joanna Weiss

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Joanna
Weiss (D)		Scott
Baugh (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [102] [C] October 24–30, 2023500 (LV)± 4.4%43%42%15%

Results

2024 California's 47th congressional district election [104]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Dave Min 181,694 51.44% −0.28
Republican Scott Baugh 171,52448.56%+0.28
Total votes353,218 100.0%
Democratic hold

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 Poll conducted for Baugh's campaign
  2. ↑ Poll sponsored by U.S. Term Limits
  3. 1 2 Poll conducted for Weiss's campaign
  4. ↑ Poll conducted for Min's campaign
  1. ↑ This district was numbered as the 45th district prior to the 2020 redistricting cycle.
  2. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ "Someone else" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 0%
  4. ↑ $225,000 of this total was self-funded by Weiss
  5. ↑ $15,000 of this total was self-funded by Weiss
  6. ↑ "Won't vote" with 1%

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References

  1. 1 2 Schallhorn, Kaitlyn (January 10, 2023). "Rep. Katie Porter launches a U.S. Senate bid". The Orange County Register . Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  2. ↑ Kang, Hanna (January 10, 2023). "Rep. Katie Porter's most viral moments in Congress". The Orange County Register.
  3. ↑ Weigel, David (March 1, 2024). "A California House race is AIPAC's first big target. Nobody is quite sure why". Semafor. Retrieved November 9, 2024.
  4. ↑ Anguiano, Dani (March 11, 2024). "Pro-Israel group spent millions in tight race for southern California House seat – and lost". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved November 9, 2024.
  5. ↑ Ackley, Kate (March 10, 2023). "DCCC picks 29 'Frontline' members for extra help next year". Roll Call . Retrieved March 20, 2023.
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  7. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district, for new and old districts". Daily Kos . September 29, 2021. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  8. ↑ Hiramoto, KJ (November 12, 2024). "CA District 47 Race: Dave Min declares victory as Scott Baugh concedes". KCOP-TV . Retrieved November 12, 2024.
  9. ↑ Schallhorn, Kaitlyn (January 10, 2023). "Scott Baugh launches congressional bid for Rep. Katie Porter's seat". The Orange County Register . Retrieved January 20, 2023.
  10. 1 2 3 Gans, Jared (January 18, 2023). "Dave Min announces bid for Porter's California House seat, nabs her endorsement". The Hill . Retrieved January 18, 2023.
  11. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Certified List of Candidates". California Secretary of State. December 28, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
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  13. ↑ Nguyen, Lilly (February 8, 2023). "Community activist announces congressional bid in Orange County's already contested CA-47". Los Angeles Times .
  14. ↑ Frisk, Garrett (May 11, 2023). "California House Candidate Roundup: May 11, 2023". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  15. ↑ Szabo, Matt (October 17, 2023). "Huntington Beach's Dom Jones pivots into State Assembly District 72 race". Daily Pilot .
  16. ↑ "Former Rep. Harley Rouda Withdraws Bid For Election Following Fall". Patch Media Newport Beach-Corona Del Mar, CA. City News Service. April 11, 2023.
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  19. ↑ "Why is an elected official in California running for Nevada's Senate seat?". The Nevada Independent. March 19, 2024. Retrieved March 19, 2024.
  20. ↑ "Former Rep. Harley Rouda announces another Congressional bid". Los Angeles Times . January 11, 2023.
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  31. ↑ "2024 Voter Guides". californiaprolife.org. Retrieved February 20, 2024.
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  35. 1 2 NRA-PVF. "NRA-PVF | Grades | California". NRA-PVF. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
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  42. 1 2 3 "SEIU endorses Dave Min for Congress". Orange County Breeze. March 16, 2023. Archived from the original on March 17, 2023. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
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  44. ↑ "Primary Endorsements" (PDF). California Democratic Party. November 19, 2023. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  45. ↑ "Endorsed Candidates 2024 Primary". Democratic Party of Orange County. Retrieved March 7, 2024.
  46. ↑ AAPI Victory Fund [@aapivictoryfund] (May 12, 2023). "We are proud to endorse @davemin_ca for California's 47th Congressional District. Dave is running for Congress to defend the American Dream and fight for the hard-working constituents of CA-47. We stand with Dave to protect progressive values in Congress". Instagram . AAPI Victory Fund . Retrieved May 18, 2023.
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  77. ↑ RMG Research
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  86. ↑ Chmielewski, Dan (April 12, 2024). "Adam Schiff Throws His Support Behind Dave Min, Citing the High Stakes of California's 47th Congressional District Race". The Liberal OC. Retrieved April 15, 2024.
  87. ↑ Chmielewski, Dan (April 17, 2024). "Governor Gavin Newsom Endorses Dave Min for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved April 19, 2024.
  88. ↑ "Endorsement: Dave Min for the 47th Congressional District". Los Angeles Times . September 9, 2024. Retrieved September 27, 2024.
  89. ↑ "Dangerous Dave Min touts endorsement from the Squad". NRCC . April 3, 2024. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  90. ↑ Solander, Andrew (March 28, 2024). "Scoop: House Democrats grow their GOP target list for 2024". Axios . Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  91. ↑ Democratic Majority for Israel [@DemMaj4Israel] (September 9, 2024). "Today, DMFI PAC announced its endorsement of fourteen pro-Israel candidates running for the Democratic nomination in key U.S. House and Senate general election races. These seats are critical to electing a Democratic majority in Congress this November" (Tweet). Retrieved September 9, 2024– via Twitter.
  92. ↑ "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Slate of No Corporate PAC Congressional Candidates". End Citizens United | We the People, Not "We the Wealthy". May 15, 2024. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
  93. ↑ "Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund Announces New Round of Federal Endorsements". Everytown for Gun Safety. September 26, 2024. Retrieved September 27, 2024.
  94. ↑ Dison, Denis (May 14, 2024). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 17 Environmental Champs for Congress". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
  95. ↑ "Endorsements". Our Revolution. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
  96. ↑ "Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Slate of California Champions for Election to U.S. House". Reproductive Freedom for All. April 9, 2024. Retrieved April 11, 2024.
  97. ↑ Editorial Board. "Endorsement: Scott Baugh for California's 47th Congressional District". OC Register. SCNG. Retrieved September 15, 2024.
  98. ↑ Schilke, Rachel (April 3, 2024). "Johnson-linked PAC releases first slate of 'trailblazer' House endorsements - Washington Examiner" . Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  99. ↑ "California Small Businesses Endorse Scott Baugh for Congress". NFIB. May 8, 2024. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
  100. 1 2 WPA Intelligence (R)
  101. ↑ USC/CSU
  102. 1 2 Public Policy Polling (D)
  103. ↑ Public Policy Polling (D)
  104. ↑ "California 47th Congressional District Election Results". The New York Times . November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 23, 2024.

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