2024 California's 47th congressional district election

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2024 California's 47th congressional district election
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  Dave Min official portrait (cropped).jpg ScottBaugh (cropped).jpg
Candidate Dave Min Scott Baugh
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. Representative

Katie Porter
Democratic



The 2024 California's 47th congressional district election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the United States representative for California's 47th congressional district, concurrently with elections for the other U.S. House districts in California and the rest of the country, as well as the 2024 U.S. Senate race in California, other elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary election will be held on March 5, 2024, concurrently with the Super Tuesday presidential primaries. The Southern California-based 47th district is centered in Orange County and includes the cities of Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, Irvine, Newport Beach, and Seal Beach, as well as portions of Laguna Beach, Laguna Hills, and Laguna Woods.

Contents

The incumbent is Democrat Katie Porter, who was re-elected with 51.7% of the vote in 2022. She is not seeking re-election, instead choosing to run for the U.S. Senate. [1] Porter was first elected in 2018, unseating incumbent Republican Mimi Walters. She later gained national fame for her progressive politics and frequently went viral for grilling corporate executives during congressional hearings. [2]

The candidates leading in fundraising are state senator Dave Min and attorney Joanna Weiss, both Democrats, and former state assemblyman Scott Baugh and businessman Max Ukropina, both Republicans. Democratic former congressman Harley Rouda was previously in the race and led in fundraising, but dropped out due to complications from an injury.

The race is expected to be highly competitive as it is a slightly blue suburban district with no incumbent. Both House Democrats and House Republicans have listed California's 47th district among their highest-priority districts in the 2024 election. [3] [4] Democrat Joe Biden won the district with 54.5% of the vote in the 2020 presidential election. [5]

Primary election

Candidates

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

  • Terry Crandall (No party preference), Santa Ana College economics professor [8]
  • Tom McGrath (No party preference), chemical engineer [8]
  • Long Pham (Republican), former member of the Orange County Department of Education Board of Directors and perennial candidate [8]
  • Boyd Roberts (Democratic), realtor and perennial candidate [8]
  • Bill Smith (No party preference), retired attorney [8]
  • Max Ukropina (Republican), businessman and former aide to U.S. Representatives John Campbell and David Valadao [9]
  • Joanna Weiss (Democratic), attorney and law professor [10]
  • Shariq Zaidi (Democratic), security guard [8]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Dom Jones (D) (withdrawn)
Individuals
Scott Baugh (R)
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Political parties
Organizations
Long Pham (R)
Organizations
Dave Min (D)
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
  • 24 state senators [36]
  • 33 state assemblymembers [36]
Individuals
Newspapers and other media
Political parties
Organizations
Labor unions
Harley Rouda (D) (withdrawn)
U.S. representatives
Local officials
Max Ukropina (R)
Political parties
Joanna Weiss (D)
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State assemblymembers
Local officials
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Scott
Baugh (R)		Dave
Min (D)		Max
Ukropina (R)		Joanna
Weiss (D)		OtherUndecided
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 1] February 12–14, 2024366 (LV)± 5.1%27%22%9%16%9%17%
RMG Research [upper-alpha 2] November 14–19, 2023300 (LV)± 5.7%17%12%4%7%4% [lower-alpha 3] 56%

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of February 14, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Dave Min (D)$1,731,136$1,507,057$224,079
Boyd Roberts (D)$6,762$8,369$0
Joanna Weiss (D)$2,151,268 [lower-alpha 4] $1,538,667$612,601
Scott Baugh (R)$2,010,374$313,132$1,707,928
Max Ukropina (R)$595,201$436,787$158,414
Terry Crandall (NPP)$13,985$12,461$1,523
Tom McGrath (NPP)$14,033$8,895$5,138
Bill Smith (NPP)$15,000 [lower-alpha 5] $7,770$7,230
Source: Federal Election Commission [74]

Results

2024 California's 47th congressional district primary [75] [76]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Scott Baugh 49,799 32.8
Democratic Dave Min 39,080 25.7
Democratic Joanna Weiss28,94819.0
Republican Max Ukropina22,72915.0
Republican Long Pham4,1952.8
No party preference Terry Crandall2,4001.6
Democratic Boyd Roberts2,0121.3
No party preference Tom McGrath1,3210.9
No party preference Bill Smith9020.6
Democratic Shariq Zaidi6720.4
Total votes152,058 100.0

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [77] Lean DFebruary 2, 2023
Inside Elections [78] Tilt DMarch 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [79] TossupFebruary 23, 2023
Elections Daily [80] Likely DJune 8, 2023
CNalysis [81] Lean DNovember 16, 2023

Endorsements

Endorsements in bold were made after the primary election.

Dave Min (D)
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
  • 24 state senators [36]
  • 33 state assemblymembers [36]
Individuals
Newspapers and other media
Political parties
Organizations
Labor unions
Scott Baugh (R)
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Political parties
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Dave
Min (D)		Scott
Baugh (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 3] October 24–30, 2023500 (LV)± 4.4%42%43%15%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 4] June 14–15, 2023555 (LV)± 4.2%37%39%24%
Hypothetical polling
Scott Baugh vs. Joanna Weiss
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Joanna
Weiss (D)		Scott
Baugh (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 3] October 24–30, 2023500 (LV)± 4.4%43%42%15%

Results

2024 California's 47th congressional district election
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Dave Min
Republican Scott Baugh
Total votes

Notes

  1. ↑ Poll conducted for Baugh's campaign
  2. ↑ Poll sponsored by U.S. Term Limits
  3. 1 2 Poll conducted for Weiss's campaign
  4. ↑ Poll conducted for Min's campaign
  1. ↑ This district was numbered as the 45th district prior to the 2020 redistricting cycle.
  2. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ "Someone else" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 0%
  4. ↑ $225,000 of this total was self-funded by Weiss
  5. ↑ $15,000 of this total was self-funded by Weiss

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References

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  2. ↑ Kang, Hanna (January 10, 2023). "Rep. Katie Porter's most viral moments in Congress". The Orange County Register.
  3. ↑ Ackley, Kate (March 10, 2023). "DCCC picks 29 'Frontline' members for extra help next year". Roll Call . Retrieved March 20, 2023.
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  10. ↑ Nguyen, Lilly (February 8, 2023). "Community activist announces congressional bid in Orange County's already contested CA-47". Los Angeles Times .
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  83. ↑ "Dangerous Dave Min touts endorsement from the Squad". NRCC . April 3, 2024. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  84. ↑ Solander, Andrew (March 28, 2024). "Scoop: House Democrats grow their GOP target list for 2024". Axios . Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  85. ↑ "Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Slate of California Champions for Election to U.S. House". Reproductive Freedom for All. April 9, 2024. Retrieved April 11, 2024.
  86. ↑ Schilke, Rachel (April 3, 2024). "Johnson-linked PAC releases first slate of 'trailblazer' House endorsements - Washington Examiner" . Retrieved April 3, 2024.
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